The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter

mikel_leshoure

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) With Alex Smith going to Kansas City, would you trade Dwayne Bowe for Kendall Wright and Dennis Pitta?Eric in PA

First things first, I think I need to add an addendum to the third point in the introduction.  If you share the same name and home state as the author, your question is even more likely to be answered!  So from one Eric to another, I would advise you to stand pat with Bowe.

I’m sure many were hoping Bowe would land in a sexier destination, but truth be told I don’t see his new contract with Kansas City as an impediment to fantasy greatness.  Over the past three years, Bowe has sported per-game averages of 4.7 receptions, 69.4 yards and 0.51 touchdowns.  This is despite the fact that, over that time frame, the Chiefs’ passing offense never ranked higher than #25 in the league.

Enter new head coach Andy Reid.

Compared to the 474 passes attempted by Chiefs’ quarterbacks last year, Reid had his Eagles’ signal callers air it out a whopping 618 times.  That was the seventh highest total (by team) in the league, and would have constituted an increase of nine pass attempts per game over the Chiefs’ 2012 weekly average.

However, I get the sense your apprehension was less about Bowe and Reid and more about Smith.  While it’s true Smith is basically the equivalent of a rich man’s Trent Dilfer, he has previously shown the ability to support at least one fantasy-relevant receiver.  Over the past two years, with Smith under center in a conservative offense, San Francisco receiver Michael Crabtree functioned as a solid PPR WR2/3 and definitive target hog.  With Bowe virtually a dead ringer for Crabtree (only one inch, seven pounds and 0.03 seconds in the 40-yard dash separate the two), I expect him to flourish with Smith at the helm and Reid calling the shots.

Back to the original offer, Pitta is a very good tight end with upside, but he falls into the expansive tier of dime-a-dozen, low-end TE1’s.  Wright is an intriguing prospect, but didn’t show me enough potential last year for me to view him as a future WR1.  Therefore, give me the player who already has displayed this ability.  With the shackles off the Kansas City offense, I’d use Bowe to take aim at a dynasty league championship.

2.) An owner in my league recently dropped Knowshon Moreno.  Willis McGahee is aging and I’m not sure if Ronnie Hillman will take the lead in Denver.  Would it be smart to drop one of my current backs and pick up Moreno? If so, which back has the least upside out of Mikel Leshoure, DuJuan Harris, Mark Ingram, and Rashard Mendenhall?Alex in WA

Firstly, I’m mystified as to why any owner would drop Moreno right now.  According to our February ADP data, the Denver running back is being drafted in the early ninth round, as a prospective RB3.  Even if you’re not a believer in his ability, clearly others are.  At worst, he’s prime trade bait and I’d implore you to pluck him waivers.

As to which player you should drop, this is a close one.  I’m personally not a huge fan of Leshoure, and don’t think he possesses enough explosive ability or passing down prowess to join the ranks of the elite.  Rumblings of the Lions’ interest in free agent Reggie Bush further serve to depress his value.  Nonetheless, he’s only entering his third year in the league, and was given over 15 carries per game last year.  Now another year removed from a torn Achilles tendon, Leshoure is a solid hold.

I would hang onto Mendenhall as well.  Regardless of his current free agent status, he’s shown the ability to carry the load in the past and is still only 25 years old.  Though he had the misfortune of attempting to return from a torn ACL in the same year as superhuman Adrian Peterson, rumors of Mendenhall’s demise are greatly exaggerated.

Despite the Saints’ Hoarders-esque collection of running back talent (they recently tendered Chris Ivory at the second-round level), you can’t give up on Ingram.  No, he’s unlikely to ever live up to his draft-status, both in real life and fantasy.  However, despite the constant timeshare, Ingram received an uptick in carries at the end of the season, averaging nearly 15 per game in the month of December.  The former first round pick will get his opportunities.

So with apologies to Davis Mattek, I’d advise you to drop DuJuan Harris.  Though he showed well in limited opportunities, he only received more than ten carries in three games last year (including the postseason).  Moreover, Packers’ running backs coach Alex Van Pelt has opined that the organization doesn’t view Harris as a bell-cow, stating “it would be tough for him to see a body of work for the season, if he wore down later in the season.”  I just don’t see the upside in an undersized committee-back stuck in a pass-first offense, so it wouldn’t pain me deeply to part with Harris.

3.) I would like to know what value you have for Greg Jennings in a PPR league which requires three starting running backs and four starting receivers.  I’m looking to trade him but not sure what to ask for? – Dave in IN

The uncertainty surrounding his destination renders Jennings a bit of a dynasty lightning rod right now.  Moreover, other factors such as age (29) and injuries (11 missed games in the last two years) clearly have owners worried.  In fact, between the ADP data from January and February, Jennings’ draft position has fallen over a full round.  For a player who has recorded at least 900 receiving yards in five of the last six years, that seems a bit unwarranted.

Certainly, the potential downgrade in catching passes from Aaron Rodgers versus virtually anyone else is a scary proposition, but there are a few misconceptions to clear up.  Firstly, Jennings was producing before Rodgers ascended to the starting lineup, averaging over 70 receiving yards per game in his sophomore season with Brett Favre at the helm.  Secondly, though Jennings has thrived with Rodgers under center, the Packers are the definition of an opportunistic offense.  In both 2011 and 2012, five receivers recorded over 55 targets, with none exceeding 104 in either year.  In other words, it’s not as if Jennings was a recipient of Rodgers’ radar lock.

Coupling the above facts with his depressed market, I actually believe Jennings represents a better “buy” than “sell” right now.  If you’re still looking to trade him, we need to consider the depth of your league’s starting requirements in terms of receivers and running backs.  If you’re weak at running back, I would attempt to trade for a solid RB3 like Steven Jackson, or perhaps a younger runner with upside (Jonathan Stewart, Ben Tate, Vick Ballard, Ryan Williams, etc.).  If those names don’t tantalize you, I would target a mid-to-late first round rookie draft pick.

4.) Which older running back would be great to pick up just for the 2013 season only as I make a championship run?  I have all the other pieces in place, but need a solid RB2 who could be added to my roster on the cheap because of age.  The players I’m considering are Frank Gore, Fred Jackson, Reggie Bush, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson and Willis McGahee. – Richard in CA

I would immediately rule out McGahee and Fred Jackson because I think their best-case scenarios for 2013 involve timeshares.  To a similar degree, I believe the same about Bush.  Though he took control of the Dolphins’ backfield over the past two years, he still has yet to exceed 227 carries in a given season.  Consequently, this has now become a three-horse race between Gore, Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

Though I’ve written previously that I consider MJD to be an excellent buy for contenders, he worries me for several reasons.  The Jaguars were absolutely pathetic offensively in 2012, averaging 15.9 points and 85.6 rushing yards per game.  While some of this can be attributed to MJD’s absence, a lack of skill-position players and competent quarterback play doesn’t lead me to believe 2013 will be much better.  Also concerning is the fact that the new coaching staff, led by Gus Bradley, has no ties to Jones-Drew.  Though I believe he will return to dominating Jacksonville’s backfield, there are no guarantees.

So given the choice between Gore and Jackson, I’ll side with The Inconvenient Truth.  I do like Jackson’s prospects, especially if/when he signs with a contender.  Unfortunately, this means a brand new playbook, as well as assimilation with a different supporting cast.  Given the players you’re targeting, I consider S-Jax to be a great fallback option.

With Gore, however, you know what you’re getting.  The 49ers ran the ball 53% of the time in 2012 en route to boasting the fourth best rushing attack in the league.  This number actually has potential to improve as quarterback Colin Kaepernick continues to gain experience.  With fellow runner Kendall Hunter recovering from a torn Achilles tendon, expect Gore to exert control over the ‘Niners backfield once again, taking advantage of running behind the league’s best offensive line.  He could be the piece that pushes your team over the top.

Follow me on Twitter @EDH_27

eric hardter