Every fantasy football owner has one. It’s a simple list of names. A list that includes all of players you will never have on a fantasy team ever again.
Most players make their way onto the list because we, as fantasy owners, have continued to keep them on our roster year after year, but every season the player disappoints us. We finally get sick of waiting for him to break out and they get a permanent place on the list.
Many owners may be on the verge (if they have not already) of putting Darren McFadden’s name on that list. Perhaps before doing that though, we should take a closer look at the Raiders ball carrier and what has made him such a fantasy headache to this point.
McFadden entered the league in 2008 as a highly touted tailback out of Arkansas. He was a two-time Heisman trophy runner-up for the Razorbacks and was regarded as one of the top players to enter the draft in years.
Since being drafted with the fourth overall pick by the Raiders, McFadden has been inconsistent to say the least. Let’s take a look at what he has done on the field to this point in his career:
|
Rushing |
Receiving |
|||||||
|
Year |
Games |
Attempts |
Yards |
Average |
TD |
Rec. |
Yards |
TD |
|
2008 |
13 |
113 |
499 |
4.4 |
4 |
29 |
285 |
0 |
|
2009 |
12 |
104 |
357 |
3.4 |
1 |
21 |
245 |
0 |
|
2010 |
13 |
223 |
1,157 |
5.2 |
7 |
47 |
507 |
3 |
|
2011 |
7 |
113 |
614 |
5.4 |
4 |
19 |
154 |
1 |
|
2012 |
12 |
216 |
707 |
3.3 |
2 |
42 |
258 |
1 |
As you can see from the statistics above, McFadden’s biggest problem may be staying on the field. He has only played in 57 of a possible 80 games through five NFL seasons. Playing in fewer than 75% of games is not going to get any player in the good graces of many fantasy owners. But before we get overly critical of his injury history, let’s take a moment to focus on the rest of his numbers.
In 2008 and 2009 combined, McFadden averaged less than four yards per carry. He totaled 50 catches and scored only five touchdowns – those numbers were tallied in 25 total games played. That’s certainly not very impressive and did not live up to the expectations of dynasty owners who invested a high draft pick into him.
Then in 2010, and through the first seven games of 2011, the light came on for McFadden. He averaged more than five yards per carry, caught 66 passes and scored a total of 15 touchdowns in just 20 games. A sprained foot cost him the final nine games of the 2011 season, however.
In 2012, Run-DMC was more like Stumble-DMC – he was dreadful. His yards per carry dropped to 3.3 and he was terrible around the goal line, scoring only three total times on 258 touches.
So why has McFadden been so inconsistent? And what will it take for McFadden to fulfill the enormous potential he was beginning to realize in 2010 and 2011? Let’s dig a little deeper to find out.
When he was drafted in 2008, Lane Kiffin was Oakland’s head coach and Greg Knapp was the offensive coordinator. The Raiders were running Knapp’s zone blocking scheme with Tom Cable coaching the offensive line. Four weeks into the season, Al Davis fired Kiffen and promoted Cable to interim head coach. Knapp stayed on board as the OC through the end of the season and split play calling duties with Cable, but to the dismay of fantasy players, McFadden never got going as a rookie.
In 2009, Davis decided to remove the interim tag from Cable but the team did not retain Knapp’s services. Cable decided not to hire an OC and to make the offensive calls himself. The offensive game plan did not change, nor did the results. The Raiders struggled on offense, especially in the running game, and McFadden didn’t look any better in his sophomore campaign.
After the season, Davis forced Cable to employ a coordinator and give up play calling duties entirely. He appointed Hue Jackson as his OC. Jackson scrapped the zone blocking scheme and installed a power running system that is commonly referred to as a gap blocking scheme. The Raiders offense took off as is evidenced by McFadden’s numbers. He had the most productive season of his career accumulating more than 1,600 total yards and adding ten touchdowns in 13 games.
By the time 2011 came around, Cable had been fired and Jackson was promoted to Head Coach. He was still calling plays and McFadden started out well again until a foot injury popped up during the Raiders week seven match-up against the Chiefs. Through the first six weeks of 2011, McFadden averaged more than 100 yards per game on the ground and scored four rushing touchdowns. He added 18 receptions in those games for 151 yards and a touchdown catch. McFadden was on pace for another career year in the gap scheme employed by Jackson before the injury derailed his season.
The Raiders went through a complete change of leadership before the 2012 season. Al Davis had passed away and Reggie McKenzie was hired to oversee the Oakland front office. McKenzie fired Jackson and chose Dennis Allen as the fourth head coach of the Raiders since McFadden had been drafted.
So, who did Allen hire to run the Raiders offense and call plays before last season? It was none other than Greg Knapp. That’s right, the same Greg Knapp that was the Raiders OC during McFadden’s rookie season.
Knapp re-installed the zone blocking scheme that McFadden struggled with during his first two years in the NFL. As we all saw throughout the 2012 season, DMC didn’t look any better in Knapp’s offense the second time around. He ran for a career low 3.27 yards per carry, looked terrible and lost the trust of most fantasy owners in the process.
Knapp was fired the day after the season ended. To replace him, Allen hired former Lions, Rams and Buccaneers OC Greg Olson on January 18.
Since being hired, Olson has indicated that he plans on implementing a power rushing attack centered on McFadden’s downhill running. The 2013 Raiders will feature a gap blocking scheme, the same scheme that McFadden thrived in during the 2010 and 2011 seasons. Remember, he averaged more than five yards per carry during those seasons and scored 15 touchdowns in 20 games playing in a power running offense – this should be music to fantasy owner’s ears.
If Olson and the Raiders follow through with what they have said to this point in the off-season, there is no reason McFadden can’t return to his five yard per carry average and if he stays healthy, find himself among the leading fantasy running backs in 2013.
In my opinion, the only remaining issue is McFadden’s injury risk. While I agree that an injury history like his is not something that you can just ignore, McFadden’s upside is still through the roof. He’s not going to turn 26 until August, so he is in the prime of his career. He is also one of only a handful of running backs that can stay on the field for all three downs and is a threat to score from anywhere on the field (he runs a sub 4.4 forty yard dash.) If that’s not enough, he’s in the final year of the contract he signed as a rookie and has the added motivation of a lucrative, long-term deal.
Many of McFadden’s dynasty owners are likely to be passive about his prospects for the 2013 season and beyond due to his relative inconsistency and injury history. If his owner in your league is taking that stance, I believe now is the time to be aggressive and try to make an off-season trade.
Don’t get me wrong. Due to his injury history I wouldn’t give up a valuable piece to acquire McFadden. But at this point, he is carrying a deflated price tag which has given fantasy owners the perfect opportunity to buy low.
So if before the 2013 season gets here, you are looking over that list of players you will never have on your fantasy team again and you see Darren McFadden’s name, consider grabbing a pencil and erasing it. It might be the best decision you make this off-season.
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Nice article. i totally agree, even that Fadden has disappointed all his fantasy owners over the years, with his injuries , i am willing to give him a vote of confidence this upcoming season.
The fact that the scheme changes to a power-running , one-cut scheme as the new Coaches are advertising, plus the fact McFadden will be in his final year of his contract,which makes him want to run for big cash contract in the future, and the fact ,that on the RB-position , we only got a handful RB’s in the NFL, who really are a true 3 down and every down player , makes McFadden the typical high risk/high reward RB.
McFadden can not be confused with a true RB1 like All Day or Foster, but I rather own him than CJ-ex2k.
But, if i get McFadden, i will make sure to have a backup plan and enough depth on the RB-position to manage the season if he goes down again.
Or wait til he has a huge game and sell high.
Great article. Got the gears in my head going. Also, FYI: The San Francisco Chronicle reports that Raiders general manager Reggie McKenzie said that running back Darren McFadden has suffered some “flukey” injuries. “He is as tough as they come,” McKenzie said. “Those things happen.” McKenzie also said he is counting on a big year for McFadden in 2013. “I’m looking forward to Darren McFadden having a great season this year,” McKenzie said. -CBSSports. I think it’s interesting that he calls dmc’s injuries “flukey”, and at least worth noting. Could be just ‘coach speak’ too.
There are three types of fantasy footballers.
Those who have been burnt by DMC
Those who haven’t been burnt by DMC… YET
And those who have been burnt by DMC and don’t care because they like the pain.
I’m #3. If the value is there and he slips. I’ll roll the dice.
hehehe, here comes the pain….hahaha, i like that.
Ain’t that the truth Eric O. I’m in camp two. Burned twice last year and I’m not going back for any more. He’s a potential team killer on the order of Mathews (or maybe worse in some ways).
Oops. Meant camp one
Hey Eric, there’s a 4th type of fantasy footballers: Those that draft McFadden and been burnt by him, cut him and watched him flourish (2010) on another team, then decided to trade for him again thinking that the injury history was done & over with only to be burnt by McFadden yet again!!
Yep this type of McFadden owner is me. I traded for him in Wk#8 of the 2011 season and haven’t gotten much out of him since then. He’s missed more games than he’s played for my team since I re-acquired him!! If I trade him now (if I can find anyone who wants him), DMC will have a great year in 2013! I kike me some DMC pain! lol
Drafting or maintaining McFadden on your team is the definition of insanity.
It seems that you didn’t read the article….As a McFadden owner, I’ve been waiting patiently for the return of the gap block system.
Here’s a related question – the Jags are apparently thinking if going to the zone blocking scheme and I’ve read that this will be “good” for MJD. Dan, what are your thoughts on that switch?
Hey Adam,
Thanks for asking the question. I am a little bit leery about the Jaguars switch to the zone blocking system. To my knowledge, MJD has never played in the scheme going all the way back to his college days. On top of the offensive philosophy change, he is going to turn 28 this month and is quickly approaching the dreaded age of 30 for running backs.
Some experts think that his holdout was the cause for Jone-Drew’s slow start to the 2012 season before his injury. I tend to think it might be a sign of things to come.
If I were a Jones-Drew owner and had a quality offer for him, I would give it serious consideration. We may have already seen the best MJD has to offer.
Thanks for reading!
I don’t of any DMac owners that will sell him cheap. Most are only willing to deal him for top
10 prices, which I’m not paying. Nice article but I don’t see him as a buy-low just because of his asking price. I’d rather avoid the headaches.
I traded my 2nd round pick and Daryl Richardson last year about mid way through the season for McFadden. The 2nd round pick turned out to be pick 2.12 since I won the championship.
I must be in the minority in thinking that top 5 back plus wire fill in is always better than number 15-20rb for a full year. You take dmc when he’s the best available all day and twice on Sundays. Not saying that’s what he is but many times that’s what he has been and is always a threat to be the top back in fantasy if healthy and running the power one cut offense.
Do not own DMC in any dynasty leagues, he killed me last yr in a redraft ppr- swore him off and never again, I knew his history but bought in to the preseason hype, 14 receptions in week 1, I thought id struck gold, but it soon faded.
As for my dynasty leagues, I have T.Rich, S.Jax, L.Miller, D.Wilson, K.Hunter, R.Mendenhall. I dont see any due to my youth that id trade for McFadden, besides maybe S.Jax, but then again, S.Jax could be awesome in Atlanta for a couple of years, is there any on this list you think I should trade for him, I dont see it, but always willing to listen to other minds?
If you drafted McFadden #1 overall in 2008 like most would have, and kept him every year. How many Fantasy playoff games(wk.14-16) has he played a whole game since then?
Clue: Easily counted on 1 hand.
McFadden is one player that hasn’t ever been on a team I’ve owned because I’ve always been lower than most on him. I just can’t bring myself to spend a high pick on someone that is going to miss at least 3 games during the season. Yes, everyone gets injured, but when it is 5 seasons in a row that is almost a guarantee.
I drafted McFadden for the 1st time ever in a startup not too long ago. Its a start 2-4 RB league. I traded up to geet a second 2nd round pick and took 3RBs in the first 2 rounds. McCoy,Murray,McFadden. I like McFadden as a RB3 and it’s probably the only way I would own him. This RB core may end being my biggest FF headache ever. Fingers crossed I guess.
Every year people come out of the woodwork to bolster McFad as this year’s stud-to-be. The only reason I can guess they do this is because they have him and want to increase the hype so they can unload this worthless player.
I wouldn’t go as far as say “worthless”, its more like “wishful thinking”. I am a McFadden owner. I see him as my RB3, like other owners here have commented. The comparative value would be a prospect RB. However in DMC’s case, you’ve already seen what he can do. If he goes off for 40 fantasy points – great. If he gets injured (more like when) – sub him out. He’s pretty much a hold for any owner, as long as you aren’t counting on him being your RB1.
As of now, before the NFL Draft, I would rather have DMC than any RB in the 2013 class.
That it true. Even before the 2012 college games began everyone in the fantasy football world was saying this was a weak class… and that was with Barkley, Lattimore, and Woods at the top, and even they have fallen.
Doing my best to trade all 2013 picks for 2014 picks. Rather have the extra picks in a 2008-like class, rather than another 2010 wasteland.
If I had McFad, I’d get rid of him just to avoid the headache all together. And before he gets hurt (aka before the season) is the best time.
So DMC or Matt Forte???
FORTE. do not look back. new HC , who is a passing-guru and Forte will benefit , because the passing game will open up the run and as Forte can catch too.
i like the the make up of the new Bears Offense.
McFadden is a typical High risk/reward guy , which the new to install power one cut scheme should help him,
but Forte is on a better situation with better supporting cast around. one knock on Forte, he needs to stay healthy too( by far not as injury-prone like McFadden though).
I acquired McFadden last year in a dynasty league as my RB2/3 with Rice and Mathews. I traded him this offseason.
I have a high risk tolerance, so I agree with those that say give me a stud for 12 games + replacement player over the “good” player for 16 games. That was my strategy with McFadden.
McFadden’s biggest run was the 64 yard TD against Pittsburgh in week 3. That should have been reason for optimism for McFadden owners, and it probably was for most. Not for me.
McFadden did not look like the 2010/11 McFadden on that run. He ran through a huge hole made a minor move on one defender and ran to daylight. Good, right? Only, he did not explode through that hole, he did not burn past everybody like he did in 2010/11. He almost got caught, and that would not have happened before his foot injury. It isn’t that he was slow, per se, just not “McFadden” fast. I contend that McFadden does not approach sub-4.4 speed any more, that his injuries, possibly mostly his foot injury, have sapped his elite speed and left him with simply pretty good speed. He is not shooting out of a cannon as he did before.
A McFadden without elite speed is nothing special. He has mediocre agility, mediocre power before the open field, and Oakland might be a significant mess (QB???) this year.
I won’t touch him as anything more than a RB3.
I am open to the possibility that he just needed more time to heal, so his value isn’t completely gone in my eyes. But I am not a buyer.
Fool me once shame on you … fool me twice…SHAME ON ME!
If a player has shown a propensity for injury and even worse has cost you money in the past, WHY would you take him regardless of perceived value?
Just say no to Faddy!
Nice article Danno, Still not in love with McFadden. I not sure that injury problem is going away. Best of luck to those who see the value and dont mind taking the risk.