The 2012 fantasy football off-season has begun. You have to pay close attention to everything in order to stay on top of your dynasty league. For most of us, we do well to steal some time away from our families and jobs to watch the games on Sunday. It becomes difficult to monitor the daily happenings around the league and even more demanding to process how that news affects your dynasty team.
That’s why we’re here!
Now that we’ve entered the off-season, the next few months will be filled with rumors. Much of the “news” will be speculation about the futures of individual players. While this can be important, it can also be a challenge to determine the validity of certain reports. I will included many of these reports and share my opinion about how the player’s value might be affected, for better or worse.
Here is a quick look at the events of the past week and how they impact the players on your team:
Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
With the franchise tag deadline looming and multiple reports and insights as to what the Kansas City Chiefs might do in order to keep free agent wide receiver Dwayne Bowe, the team pulled off a coup. Bowe agreed to a five year deal, which will pay him $56 million. Bowe has shown the talent to be one of the top wide receivers in the game and the team recently added a new quarterback, former 49er starter Alex Smith. While it is unclear how Smith will fit with the Chiefs and if he can be a true upgrade for their offense, one thing is for sure – Bowe will be the focal point of the pass offense.
Greg Little, WR CLE
Many dynasty owners (along with some Browns fans) have considered browns wide receiver Greg Little a disappointment. This mostly stems from his reputation for dropping too many catchable balls. Little did show much improvement in 2012 as the season went along and finished with a five game stretch in which he caught 22 balls for 287 yards and two scores. If Little can carry that forward into off-season workouts and training camp, his value will continue to rise. Right now, he still carries that negative reputation and offers solid value.
Ryan Williams, RB ARI
One of the biggest risers, according to our February average draft position data, is Cardinals running back Ryan Williams, who is coming off a season ending shoulder injury. This bump in dynasty value could stem from the praise and comments coming from new Arizona head coach Bruce Arians. Over the past few weeks, Arians has mentioned his love for Williams as a player and also that he prefers an every down back, rather that the use of a running-back-by-committee approach. This is great news to Williams dynasty owners, but there is still the matter of free agency. With former starter Beanie Wells likely on his way out of town, the Cardinals are expected to add a running back and have been rumored to have interest in Rashard Mendenhall or Reggie Bush. Either player would severely deflate Williams’ value. Now is not the time to buy Williams, but I would be a willing seller before the free agency period begins. Williams has back-to-back season ending injuries in his first two seasons and will certainly face some competition for carries.
Austin Collie, WR FA
Free agent wide receiver Austin Collie, who is still recovering from a ruptured patella tendon, has admitted that he will likely not be healthy until October. Collie has been somewhat of a hot dynasty stash early this off-season based on some connecting of the dots and predictions that he could land in Denver to play with former quarterback Peyton Manning. It is well known that Manning likes to utilize his slot receivers and he often looked for Collie during their shared time in Indianapolis. With the knee injury and his history of concussions, it is hard to trust Collie at all, but for only the cost of a waiver wire add, I would take a shot on him assuming I had the roster space.
Steven Jackson, RB FA
Former Rams starting running back Steven Jackson has voided his contract, which officially makes him a free agent. This move was just a formality, as everyone involved knew Jackson would make this decision and was even encouraged by team official’s during the regular season. Rumors and reports have varied on the possible destination for Jackson. There have been no burned bridges on either side, so there is a good chance he could still return to St. Louis, although there are a few contending teams that need an upgrade at running back, namely the Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons. There have been rumors that the Falcons have strong interest in Jackson. His value would likely see an uptick with a new home.
Taylor Thompson, TE TEN
Titans officials reportedly expect tight end Taylor Thompson to be much more involved in the team’s offense in the upcoming season. This is perfect timing for this speculation as it now seems that free agent starter Jared Cook will hit the open market after he and the team were unable to agree on a long term deal, or even on the details of a franchise tag. Cook was not tagged and there have been rumors of multiple teams being interested in the athletic big man. If Cook departs, that obviously opens the door for playing time for Thompson, though the Titans offense has yet to prove that it can support multiple fantasy wide receivers, let alone a top tight end. Thompson has some upside and should still be fairly cheap, so he makes a good target for this early part of the offseason.
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I was thinkn about moving Antonio gates to a te needy team for some combo of pead, drich and cadet. I’m wondering if I’m selling too low and if not, what combo is good to ask for.
Your idea to move Gates is a good one. However, I’m not sure he holds a lot of value right now since there are so many young, talented TEs a TE-needy team can take a chance on (Housler, Taylor Thompson, Cameron, etc.).
Send out some feelers to your league mates. Getting young RBs is always a good idea, but targeting 2 RBs on the same team doesn’t make much sense. Do your research and pick either Pead or Richardson, but not both. And Cadet is a nice stash in a 16 team league.
Dumped Gates last year in week 5, Gates/Sproles for Spiller! Lol. It was a new owner, plus it was before Spiller started getting all the hype. If id waited 2 more weeks, probably wouldn’t have got it.
I like getting drich and pead, you should get the future st louis starter, dont care for cadet, I dont see him ever being enough to really take your team to the top. If you can do this, do it….Gates is falling fast, it would be a steal for you. Imo
Good luck getting rid of Gates, no one is buying in any of my leagues. They must live in the real world or something.
I agree with the others, not sure you can get anything for Gates at this point. Your best bet might be to flip him for whichever young TE you believe in- Cameron, Housler, Thompson, etc. Honestly, you might not even get some of those type guys.
Good luck!
I think you’re asking for too much, Gates is old and injury prone and turned in a completely avg season in 2012. He wouldn’t even be a consideration for Pead and DRich IMO.
AZ backfield is way too murky. I can’t believe Arians even considers Williams as an every down back. Based on what? Where’s the film from his 2 NFL seasons? Where’s the O-line? Williams with 300 carries? Now is the time to sell Williams and actually get something for that roster spot you have wasted for 2+ years.
If I owned him, I might be looking to sell.
However, I drafted him at 1.04 and then traded him this year for what ended up being the 1.04 and a 3rd round pick. So now I don’t own him, and kind of wish I did.
I much prefer the 1.04, but the owner cut bait and traded him to someone else for two thirds. I think that is a great low price to try and stash a player who could produce.
Remember that there is alot of coach speak going on right now. So I wouldn’t take too much to heart or too seriously right now. Remember Chip Kelly saying how much he likes Foles. Everyone knows that he doesn’t fit that offense but coaches will say whatever to raise trade value or in Arians case, keep Williams positive and working hard in the off season.
Remember Pagano and Donald Brown last off season?
I agree completely Demon Slayer. I hope I did not come across as pro-WIlliams in the article.
very nice article indeed on every player mentioned,
and yes i agree on Zona Backfield situation.
I would not buy into R. Williams in any means, he is injured since his freshman seaon in college. i do not care about any talent , if the injury concern and the situation is that bad as it looks like for R. Williams.
Plus it is very nice hint not to overreact to some coaches comments in the offseason.
Do not slleep on players like Mendenhall, now more than 1 year removed from ACL-injury, who was rushed too early by Steelers to run the ball. ( A.P. was an exception, but teams were assuming , if A.P. could do it so others could too……exception is still an exception)
Mendenhall should be recovered fully and would have fresh legs, so if he lands in right situation, he could surprise. Buy now before his stock gets up and the prize too high.
Interesting input. I have Mendy, Reggie Bush and Vereen fighting for 2 spots on my team. Everyone has told me to get rid of Mendy, but I hold out hope as he is still young and I have him locked up for minimum salary for the next 4 years.
FA will dictate a lot of what I do.
Vereen would be my choice to get rid off, not Mendy nor R. Bush.
Vereen still is in a RBBC situation on a pass happy team , so his role is and will be limited.
try to sell Vereen in the offseason, when still lot of speculations are around, this is the best time to sell.
Woodhead is on his way out. Vereen becomes the pass-catching back on that pass-happy team.
Hum,well Vereen would replace Woodhead, but i guess it is the matter of the Distribution of the passes on that pass happy ofense of New England. i could not imagine someone won his league because of Woodhead. So if Vereen takes over Woodhead’s role, would it be enough to make a fantasy impact?
i guess Mendenhall and R. Bush are more safer bet to produce than Vereen.
Not so sure Woodhead leaves. I think both sides want a reunion there.
Thank you for your comments, everyone. I appreciate seeing other perspectives.
I had planned on cutting Vereen and keeping Bush and Mendy. Depending on where they end up, I could choose to cut/trade one of them and keep Vereen.
Unfortunately, the trade market is dead for any of these players. The best I was offered for Mendy was a 3rd, but since I didn’t take it, he made a different move. So I think the best I could get is a 4th. No idea for Vereen.
Mendenhall is the last one id get rid of, still young and could be an everydown RB. Was a top 5 RB just 3 years ago. Much more upside than the other two. Are the buddies telling you to cut Mendy in your league? Lol
Vereen would be my choice too. He has some trade value now. I recently dealt him for Stephen Hill and a couple of mid round pick upgrades.
I too am really liking Mendy and think he would be a solid investment at this point, but you might have to hurry with FA coming soon.
Thoughts on Josh Gordon’s dynasty value w Norv and Chud expecting to air it out? Thanks.
New regime in Cleveland, so wait and see.
i guess Gordon is on your team with a mininmum salary cap , so he makes a nice low risk/ high reward candidate.
Gordon can fly, so imagine T-Rich running it , as strong as we expect him to do and as he showed he could do. here comes the play action pass and Gordon will have nice stats for your team.
Just he needs to show that his head is straight. He never lacked talent , but comes with some attitude concern tag. if the coaches work on this and on his route running, i could see his dynasty value rise. besides Browns is a team to watch , they could surprise in the next couple of years.
i am a buyer on Gordon.( well it is all a question of the right prize…hehehe)
I love Gordon in dynasty leagues, as evident by my rankings. I have also said he’s my top dynasty target this offseason, but I have found some who love him just as much and won’t consider selling.
I think his rookie season was nothing short of amazing considering he’d been out of football for a year, had limited offseason and was still so young etc.
The new offense has me excited, but I still want to see a QB upgrade.
I was just about to drop collie when i read your articlle on him. I just worry about his injury history and if he can remain healthy. I do have the roster space so illl hold for now and see see what happens. What are your thoughts on Nick Toon?
Honestly, I don’t know a lot about Toon, but you’d think he has to be behind Moore, Colston, Graham and Sproles for targets, not to mention Joe Morgan. At his ADP, which is still late, there are other guys I prefer to Toon.
Collie coming from ruptured Patella injury is a player i would never roster even for little price to occupy a roster spot. Patella Tendon Rupture is way more serious than ACL injuries
. In history of these kind of injuries like the ruptured Patella tendon no NFL player came back strong again. see Cadillac Williams , see Ryan Williams and others.
i doubt Collie is worth the risk to occupy a roster spot.
Collie had his best play with P.Manning under center, well Manning makes alot of players look great. so with that kind of injury and that kind of deep talent on the WR position , i rather roster Toon, who if hralthy has the talent and the right ofense ( with Brees ) to surprise. so if i gamble, i do it with Toon and not Collie.
I do think its a long shot, but most of my leagues have larger rosters (25ish) so I would take a shot, although once the rookie draft comes in a few weeks, he will be the first guy I drop to make room.
I view Ryan Williams as a hold. Sure if you sell now and he doesn’t stay healthy or get the work you look brilliant, but if you sell for anything less than a 1st and he ends up getting 250 carries in a Arian’s offense you’re gonna wish you had him back. I’m holding him for now while understanding he may lose a lot of value in a couple weeks. Prefer to take a chance on his upside.
Nice article Ryan.
I think Greg Little is a great buy low. He had 14 drops in 2011 so he deserved the flack he got. But, last year, he had 9 drops, so he is improving. TY Hilton and Eric Decker had more drops than Little. In fact, there were a lot of big named players who had more drops than Little in 2012. His catch percentage isn’t ideal at 61%, but it’s better than other WRs like Reggie Wayne, Maclin, Hilton or even Josh Gordon. I’m not saying Little is a better player than Wayne, as that would be crazy. But, Little seems to be garnering very little love in dynasty. His coaches had positive things to say about him last week, Norv Turner is his OC, and that has to be good for him. Little’s ADP is 133, or round 11 in a 12 team league. I’d definitely take a shot on Little. I doubt he will ever be a WR1 or WR2, but a solid WR3 is still possible, except his price is cheap right now.
Exactly my thinking. I was one who was really giving up on him early last season, but he is starting to come around, as you’ve pointed out.
We have become really spoiled by the rookie WRs that can come in a contribute right away. Some guys just need more time, not to mention that offense has been crummy the past couple of years.