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Chad Scott

second_year

It used to be wide receivers could/would take up to three years before blossoming into the NFL player their team drafted them to be.  Nowadays, everything is changing and wide receivers are bearing fruit much earlier than in previous years.  They say 40 is the new 30 so I say the second year is the new third year for wide receivers.

Last week I discussed possible third year breakouts Vincent Brown, Joseph Morgan, and Jon Baldwin. 

This week, we look at those wide receivers taken in the 2012 NFL draft – the Sophomores.  There’s a lot of intriguing prospects for the second year wide receiver.  I would have liked to discuss them all but I had to leave out names like T.J. Graham and Mohamed Sanu- both, I like as value picks.  I chose the three players I believe to be in the best situations and possess the raw abilities of being fantasy studs in the (near) future.  Without further adieu, here are my picks:

 

Brian Quick, WR STL

Quick was drafted in the second round by the St. Louis Rams.  The 6’3”, 220 pound product of Appalachian State was going to be a project and the Rams knew this.  He was raw coming out of college, but had the physical attributes to tip the scales.  It was a risk taking such a project with the #33 overall pick but where there’s no risk, there’s no reward.

Most dynasty owners might be timid when trying to acquire the services of Quick for 2013, especially after seeing fellow rookie Chris Givens put up better numbers while being drafted in the fourth round, 66 picks later.  Givens ended the season catching 42 passes for 698 yards and three touchdowns, while Quick managed just 11 catches for 156 yards and two touchdowns.  Givens also out-snapped Quick 641-187, so what’s there to be excited about?

For starters, Sam Bradford took a big step forward last year and will run the same offense for the second year in a row, something he’s not accustomed to.  Brian Schottenheimer was the third offensive coordinator Bradford had in three seasons (Pat Shurmur and Josh McDaniels) and got the former #1 overall pick back on track.  His completion percentage went up, his deep passing was ranked #12 overall, and he’s back to throwing touchdowns.  He’s also doing more with fewer attempts, as shown here (in averages):

Year

Attempts

Yards

TD

2011

35.8

216.4

0.6

2012

34.4

231.4

1.3

I’ve highlighted the average touchdowns per game because I think it’s essential in Bradford’s development going forward.  It’s even more impressive he was able to do that without the services of his number one wideout, Danny Amendola, for five games (six if you count the nine snaps he totaled in week 12).

Amendola, an unrestricted free agent, is said to be testing the waters of free agency and reports say the 49ers may be in (and the favorites) on a bid for his services.  Bradford threw to Amendola 95 times in his 11 total games – those targets will have to go somewhere if Amendola decides to leave, although I think it’s best for the Rams and Bradford/Quick/Givens if he does return.  The Rams also have to make a decision on whether or not to re-sign Brandon Gibson this off-season.  He’s really the only obstacle in the way of Quick getting moved into the starting role.

If the Rams decide to re-sign Gibson, I think it’ll tell you how they view Quick’s development thus far.

Finally, the man of the hour: Quick.  The sample sizes are small, but encouraging and his body/frame screams elite-like.  This play against the 49ers may look like a busted coverage, but as you’ll see, the cornerback tried pressing him, but Quick was able to power him down to the ground with his left arm, rather easily.

With the development of Givens as a nice deep target for Bradford, Quick could/should find his niche as the intermediate threat.  His body type is perfect for what will be asked of him and will serve him well inside the red zone (see the four yard touchdown against the Vikings here).

His value will only trend upwards from here as well, regardless of the free agency possibilities.  In DLF’s February mock drafts, Quick was the WR59 with an ADP of 146.  If you want someone with a very high ceiling in 2013 at a very low cost, Quick is your man.

Michael Floyd, WR ARI

Floyd is probably the most obvious choice for a second year breakout who isn’t named Kendall Wright or Josh Gordon.  The Arizona Cardinals took the rookie from Notre Dame with the #13 overall pick.  Like Quick, Floyd stands at 6’3” and 220 pounds, giving the Cardinals another big-bodied wide receiver to go alongside Larry Fitzgerald.  Floyd was actually handpicked by Fitzgerald heading into the NFL draft.  Fitzgerald made it clear to the Cardinal’s brass Floyd was the player he wanted in the first round. And got him they did.

The bromance didn’t last long, though.  Fitzgerald called out Floyd via Twitter for missing three straight workouts.  This was the tweet:

@LarryFitzgerald
“Just finished a great workout with @Wellefast. I’m charging @MichaelMFloyd with a DWI “don’t want it” he missed a 3rd straight workout 2day.”

Apparently, that was all the motivation Floyd needed because the next day he was back to work and impressing the man who called him out.

Floyd started the year like a typical rookie.  He was slow to pick up the offense and the terrible quarterback play hindered his development.  In his first eight games, Floyd had 31.7 PPR points.  He scored 0.16 points per snap and 0.20 points per opportunity.  The second half of the season was what dynasty owners needed to see – Floyd scored 81 PPR points while scoring 0.25 points per snap and 0.34 points per opportunity.  Those second half numbers are even more encouraging when you consider who was throwing to him (John Skelton, Brian Hoyer and Ryan Lindley).

I’m really starting to like the prospects of Floyd in 2013, especially with the hire of Bruce Arians as the head coach.  Not only is Arians a huge upgrade at head coach, but he brought in veteran Tom Moore, as well.  Per SI.com:

“New Arizona Cardinals coach Bruce Arians has brought in Tom Moore and Harold Goodwin to help him overhaul the worst offense in the NFL.

The addition of the 74-year-old Moore is intriguing.

He has 34 years of experience as an NFL assistant, 12 as Peyton Manning’s offensive coordinator in Indianapolis.

He will serve as Arians’ assistant head coach/offense. Goodwin, offensive line coach for the Colts last season and an assistant with Pittsburgh five years before that, will be Arizona’s offensive coordinator, although Arians will call the plays.”

Arians will still be the head honcho when it comes to the offense and remember, this is the man who took a #30 ranked Indianapolis Colts offense in 2011 and turned them into the #10 ranked offense in 2012.  Andrew Luck may have had something to do with that, but make no mistake; Arians’ influence on any offense is significant, regardless of their quarterback.

Arians had this to say about Floyd last week, per Adam Caplan:

“I think he is a bright young star. He has to get better fundamentally. But he’s physical, he’s big, he’s active. I loved him coming out. To see he and Larry across from each other, and Andre Roberts, that’s a nice group. That’s one position we don’t have to worry about too much.”

What I really like about Floyd is he doesn’t have to be “the guy.”  Defenses tend to double Fitzgerald on almost all passing plays and with the emergence of Roberts as another threat will only open the field up for Floyd.  He saw 54 targets in the last eight games of the season, catching 32 of them (good for a 59% catch rate).

In February’s mock drafts, Floyd is being selected as the #46 wide receiver with an ADP of 105.  He has a chance of being a solid WR3 in an Arians’ offense for a cheap price tag.  I’ve been targeting both him and Quick as much as I can before their value goes on the rise.

Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI

Jeffery’s rookie year was mired in injuries, specifically a broken hand and a knee that needed arthroscopic surgery on during the season.  He played in only ten games and was never able to get consistent looks.  While the injuries hampered his overall development, there were signs he could be the #2 wide receiver opposite Brandon Marshall the Bears had hoped for. 

With the #45 pick in the second round, the Chicago Bears selected Jeffery out of South Carolina.  Much like Quick and Floyd, Jeffery also stands 6’3”, 216 pounds.  The biggest knock on Jeffery coming out of college was his work ethic and his weight fluctuations.  During his final season at South Carolina, he admitted to playing most the season at 230 pounds.  He showed up to the NFL combine weighing 216 pounds, but only participated in the weigh-in segment.

He showed up to his pro-day weighing 213 pounds and impressed scouts with his tangible abilities and 4.40 40 yard dash time.

After the Bears acquired Marshall, they needed someone else on the outside not named Devin Hester or Earl Bennett to help Jay Cutler in the passing game.

Jeffery quickly showed why the Bears drafted him in week 1 when he caught a 42-yard touchdown, getting over the top of the Colts’ secondary.

He finished his first professional game with three receptions for 80 yards and a touchdown.  Those who drafted him were giddy, throwing their arms up in victory celebration for drafting him.  After the fortuitous start, Jeffery and his owners came back down to Earth.  During his next four games he managed just 11 receptions for 104 yards and one touchdown before taking his five week leave for the hand injury.

From week 11 on, Jeffery was an afterthought as a reliable fantasy contributor.  He showed signs of brilliance, but was again hampered by his knee (missed a couple weeks).  He finished the year with just 24 receptions for 367 yards and three touchdowns.

Lovie Smith (and his defensive mind) is out as the Bears’ head coach and they have hired offensive minded, Marc Trestman to replace him.  Trestman brings with him a spread approach to the offense, much like the one he ran when he was with the AFC champion Oakland Raiders in 2002.  His philosophy is simple: more quick developing routes give Cutler more options and less exposure to a much too frequent collapsing pocket.

He’s a pass heavy coach that should/will elevate Jeffery’s fantasy value.  Cutler is going to need another receiver to emerge because he cannot continue to target Marshall nearly 40% of the time.  As long as Jeffery’s knee stays healthy (all reports indicate this will not continue to be problematic), his outlook for 2013 is looking up for those who have kept him or are looking into acquiring him.

His current ADP is at 93.5 as he is being taken as the #42 wide receiver off the board.  What separates Jeffery from the previous two potential breakouts is better quarterback play and certain opportunity.  Out of the three mentioned, he costs the most, but all are still relatively cheap.

The time to pounce on these players is now…so now that I’ve taken up half your day with this article, go get them!

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