The DLF Mailbag

Eric Hardter Posted On March 4, 2013

Welcome to a new era of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Before we get started, I’d like to take a moment to thank Tim Stafford. He took the DLF Mailbag, and through consistently exemplary efforts and analyses, turned it into the Calvin Johnson of weekly columns. Taking over for Tim is the equivalent of being handed the keys to a Ferrari with a full tank of gas and I’m grateful for the opportunity.

So with that said, let’s get to it!

1.) I have CJ Spiller, Trent Richardson and Ryan Mathews as my running backs, with Isaiah Pead and Brandon Bolden on my taxi squad. I don’t have a first round pick, but do have the 2.02 (#12 overall). I have been offered the 1.09 and either another pick or player for Mathews. Is this worth it with this draft? The other guy has Beanie Wells and BJGE. He has already offered Wells with the 1.09. – Chris in Minnesota

This looks like a case of two of my favorite dynasty phenomena coming together to form a perfect storm of overreaction. First, now that the NFL Combine has come and gone, the dynasty community is succumbing to a mass outbreak of the dreaded Rookie Fever. Every year, the “Underwear Olympics” mark the beginning of the artificial inflation of the value of rookie draft picks. Unfortunately, this trend will only intensify in the coming months, making trading for rookie picks an untenable prospect indeed.

Secondly, we have the ever-prevalent off-season perpetuation of a player’s disappointing season. Our last memory of Ryan Mathews was his inability to shoulder the load in the Chargers’ backfield, both literally and figuratively, hence that’s how he’s remembered. Though it’s true that if Mathews were a movie supervillain, he would be “Mr. Glass” from M. Night Shyamalan’s Unbreakable, he’s still being drafted with an ADP of 43.5 – that’s a mid fourth round pick in twelve team startups. This means Mathews would be drafted before every 2013 rookie with the exception of Alabama running back Eddie Lacy.

Even though Mathews didn’t live up to expectations last year, he still has great appeal as a talented young running back with rare “bell-cow” potential. He proved in 2011 that he could function as a RB1, and I’d rather gamble that he’ll bounce back than trade for an overpriced question mark. Neither the Law Firm (ADP of 109.8) nor Wells (ADP of 180.3) come close to bridging the gap.

2.) How would you rank the value of Miles Austin, Chris Givens or TB Mike Williams, plus the #7 pick (or #10 pick)? What tier of players would you consider fair value in return? And when would you contact other owners for a deal given a Fantasy Draft after the third preseason game? – Chris in Charleston

In addition to the above, Chris also conveyed to me that as he had foreseen a rebuilding phase for his team, and as such traded for three first round picks in his league’s rookie draft, including the 1.01 (Lacy). For a team seeking contention in 2014 (as opposed to this coming year), I think it makes sense to try and trade for a combination of proven young players. Let’s start by breaking down the guys with whom you’re willing to part.

Austin is an interesting case. He’ll be 29 years old before the season begins, but his health has been an issue in recent years, be it the six missed games in 2011, or constantly fighting through nagging injuries in 2012. He’s currently being drafted as a high-end WR4, which seems low considering he’s had at least 940 yards receiving in three of the last four seasons. I know you’re looking for a combo deal, but I don’t think I’d part with Austin until he rehabilitates his trade value with a few strong, regular season performances.

Moving on to Givens and TBMW, I’d much rather part with Tampa Mike. There’s a reasonable chance that two of the Rams’ top three targeted receivers (Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson) will be departing via free agency, leaving Givens as the potential top dog. As an ascending sophomore, he’s the exact type of player I’d want on a rebuilding squad. Williams is a solid player, but also destined to be Tampa’s third banana (behind Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson) for at least the next few years.

A deal of Austin/TBMW/1.07 should fetch be able to fetch reasonable trade value. Since you’re including a draft pick, I’d wait until your draft starts to make the deal. As your team is lacking depth at running back and receiver, I’d target players such as Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Matt Forte or Stevan Ridley. Depending on your trade partner, you might even be able to coax a little more back in return.

3.) My QB’s in a twelve-team, six-point passing touchdown dynasty league are Tom Brady and Cam Newton. I decided to explore the possibility of trading Brady, but so far haven’t liked the return I’ve received. In light of Brady’s new team friendly six-year contract extension I want to explore the market for Newton. I know I could get much more for Newton than I can for Brady. In your opinion what would be a fair return for Cam Newton? I would like to get a young RB1 in return. – Michael in Buffalo

While I’m not in love with the idea of trading Newton over Brady, I can understand the frustration of disproportional return for an older player. Newton, as a young, top-five dynasty option, will undoubtedly appeal to a larger market. I imagine you should be able to target a mid to low-end RB1 in your negotiations.

You noted this was a non-PPR league, so two names immediately come to mind: Alfred Morris and Stevan Ridley. Neither player offers much in the passing game, but that deficiency is mitigated by the scoring format. Though both carry red flags (mainly due to the fickle nature of their respective coaches), they fit the bill of young, high-end running backs. You might want to set your sights higher, but even with the heightened quarterback scoring, the position is inherently devalued in a twelve-team league. Unless you’re willing to add another piece or two, guys like Doug Martin and Trent Richardson are out of the question.

4.) My league is QB heavy in regards to scoring. For now, I chose as my four keepers to be RGIII (for a seventh rounder), Stevan Ridley (for a third rounder), and Vick Ballard and Daryl Richardson (both for 13th rounders). I can keep two players for two more years, with each year the player moves up two rounds. I’m going to stick with RGIII. Who’s the best RB to keep? – Jim in New Jersey

The obvious name here is Ridley, but your keeper format gives me pause. Next season, even in a PPR league, he’s an absolute steal in the third round. However, and feel free to correct me if I’m reading this wrong, his keeper value will jump to that of a first round pick for the following year. In that case, I’m just not seeing the value.

Since you mentioned it’s a quarterback-heavy league, I’m guessing that most (if not all) teams will be using at least one keeper pick on a signal-caller – that means that there will still be plenty of good options for your future early-round picks, lessening the loss of Ridley. With such a deep pool of talent, I’d be willing to gamble on one of your late-round keepers.

The player I’d hitch my wagon to is Ballard. Even though he wasn’t a world-beater as a rookie, he put a stranglehold on the starting job late in the season. While Richardson will face competition from fellow second-year player Isaiah Pead, the Colts haven’t expressed any desire to improve at the running back position. Looking at it in terms of a cost/benefit analysis, Ballard would be my choice.

We’ll see you next week!

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Eric Hardter

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

Eric is a Boston College chemistry grad school survivor with a minor in dynasty football. He prefers to utilize both statistics and sarcasm whenever possible, believes in process over results and thinks "Hot Takes" are the scourge of the fantasy landscape.