Dynasty Capsule: Houston Texans
As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.
Topping the list for many people’s 2012 AFC Super Bowl representative, the Houston Texans fell a few wins short. They are right back towards the top of the list for the 2013 season, so let’s take a look at several of the dynasty relevant players on the team.
Quarterbacks
Matt Schaub
Schaub is one of those quarterbacks who is simply a better pro than dynasty quarterback. While he isn’t elite by any means, he is definitely a starting caliber quarterback. His contract was just extended at the start of the 2012 season through the 2016 season, so he’s most likely to be around for several more years since he’ll be turning only 32 this summer. With that said, Houston is and will continue to be a team that runs early and runs late as long as Gary Kubiak is the coach.
In the three seasons that Schaub has played all 16 games as Houston’s starter, he has also had at least 4,000 yards and 22 touchdowns. His high mark was 4,770 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2009 – that puts him firmly into the QB2 range. He’s a solid backup and a very safe option in two quarterback leagues, but the upside for him is fairly limited. This is largely due to the fact that the Texans run in the red zone more than just about every other team in the league.
TJ Yates
During the 2011 season when Schaub went down with a season ending foot injury, no one expected Yates to step up and lead the Texans to the playoffs over the last six games of the season. At that time, there was a lot of talk about how Yates might be the quarterback of the future for the Texans. Then they turned around and handed a $66 million dollar contract to Schaub – that doesn’t exactly scream the Texans think Yates is the quarterback of the future.
A lot of Yates’ 2011 success was overblown. While he did play in six games, I wouldn’t exactly say that he led them to the playoffs. The Texans’ 2011 season was more in spite of Yates than because of him. He completed only 61% of his passes for well under 200 yards a game with only three touchdowns balanced by three interceptions. Anyone who is thinking he is a quarterback of the future for the Texans or anyone else is most likely mistaken. He’s just a decent backup option.
Running Backs
Arian Foster
We all know the story of how he went from undrafted rookie, to practice squad player, to NFL leading rusher. We also know he is one of the most valuable running backs in all dynasty leagues. He is a true workhorse back who can run inside, outside, catch the ball, pass protect and excel at the goal line. In short, he is one of the most complete running backs in the league. He is under contract through the 2016 season and turning 27 just before the start of the 2013 season.
While everyone agrees that Foster is still a first round pick in startups, there is starting to be some concern about exactly how long he will be able to keep this up. Many critics of Foster point to his high workload (over 1,000 carries plus more than 150 receptions in the last three seasons) and his declining yards per carry as signs of impending doom. I’m a little less skeptical. Foster borders on fanatical when it comes to his health and nutrition, which I think will help to keep him going through the heavy workload. The declining yards per carry is more due to changes in the offensive line and offenses selling out to stop the run in my opinion. I fully expect him to be a top five running back for the next 2-3 years.
Ben Tate
When he came out of Auburn in 2010, I was one of Ben Tate’s biggest supporters. Unfortunately, ever since he was drafted, things have been going downhill for Tate. The major ankle injury before his rookie season sapped a little bit of his explosiveness, but he still managed to come back and be highly productive in 2011 in a change of pace and fill-in role. He managed 5.4 yards per carry and four touchdowns that season on his 175 rushes. The potential is definitely there.
Unfortunately, other than a few games in that 2011 season, Tate hasn’t been a startable fantasy asset. Instead, he has been a lot more like Jonathan Stewart with the great potential, but never quite cashing in on it. One difference has been Tate has missed significant time due to injury. In addition to the entire 2010 season, Tate missed one game in 2011 and five more in 2012. The injuries are a concern as is the lost fumble once every 60 carries, which doesn’t fly for a coach like Kubiak.
Tate is only signed through the 2013 season – that means many are looking at him as being a top ten or top twenty player in 2014. If that is going to happen, several things need to go right for Tate. First, he needs to stay healthy. Second, he needs to work on his ball security. Third, he needs to be more consistent. Finally, the Texans need to decide they don’t want to keep him. At this point, I think he’s more a handcuff to Foster than a future stud.
Justin Forsett
Forsett filled in as the change of pace back for the injured Tate during the 2012 season. In a lot of ways, Forsett was actually superior to Tate in that role. He had a massive 6.0 yards per carry average with zero fumbles. He provided the ball security and consistency that Tate lacked. It isn’t all roses, though. Forsett lacks the between the tackles ability and hard-nosed running style that Tate and Foster have. He is also a free agent right now, so there is a chance he might not be back. Regardless of where he goes, he’ll likely never be fantasy worthy.
Wide Receivers
Andre Johnson
Johnson has been one of the premier talents at the wide receiver position ever since he came into the league ten seasons ago. He has notched six 1,000 yard seasons with a historic three seasons of over 1,500 yards. There is no questioning the talent or his value in a dynasty league. The two concerns for Johnson are his age and his ability to stay healthy. Johnson will turn 32 this summer, which is about the time you start to see a slow drop off in many wide receivers. As for injuries, Johnson has had nearly half his seasons cut short by leg injuries (some to his knees and others to his hamstrings).
When you combine the injury history with his age, Johnson is a high risk, high reward player in dynasty leagues right now. He could give you WR1 numbers for the next year or two. I also think it is equally likely that he suffers yet another leg injury. Receivers who are 32 or older very seldom come back to form after major injuries, so that could signal the beginning of the end for Johnson if it happens.
Kevin Walter
On paper, Walter is the number two wide receiver for the Texans. Don’t let that fool you because he is not the number two or even number three target in the passing game. Walter’s placement at this position is a testament to the belief that running the football is a way of life for the Texans. He is one of the best blocking wide receivers in the league; however, his role in the passing game is very limited. His last four seasons he has average right about a 46/556/3 line – that is hardly fantasy worthy unless you are in a deeper league. He will also be 32 at the start of the season, so expect him to lose his number two title pretty soon.
Keshawn Martin
One of three 2012 rookies to see the field at wide receiver for the Texans, Martin was the most productive of them. That isn’t saying a whole lot for any of the rookies since Martin only had ten catches. The fourth round pick projects as a potential slot receiver and return man long-term. He isn’t the player to eventually replace Walter on the outside. Unless the Texans suddenly become a lot more pass happy and move away from the running and screen game they currently employ, I don’t see the slot receiver in their offense having a whole lot of upside.
DeVier Posey
Another of the 2012 rookies, Posey was the player who was expected to be the heir apparent to Walter on the outside. Unfortunately, Posey struggled out of the gate, only managing to haul in six catches in the 11 games that he was active for. Things got worse for Posey when he tore his Achilles in early January. While that isn’t the death sentence it once was, it does put his 2013 season in doubt. More importantly, it means he might miss his chance to take over as one of the top two receivers on the team.
Lestar Jean
The 2012 training camp darling didn’t exactly live up to the hype some were showering on him. Personally, I never saw the shine others had, but the hype was definitely there. He managed only six catches in 14 active games, missing the other two with a knee injury. It is my opinion that he’ll never be more than a third or fourth receiver on an NFL team, but I’ve been wrong before.
Tight Ends
Owen Daniels
Behind Johnson and players coming out of the backfield, the next best receiving option in the offense is Owen Daniels. He has two years left on his contract and will be 30 at the start of the 2013 season. He has had some durability issues, missing at least one game a season in five of his seven seasons. When he is on the field, he is a solid, though not elite, TE1 option for fantasy teams, especially in PPR leagues. There are definitely more exciting and higher upside options than Daniels, but there is something that can be said for consistency.
Garrett Graham
In a lot of ways, Graham is a Daniels clone. They are both the same size, both out of Wisconsin, and both are good all-around tight ends. Graham as just one year left on his rookie contract, but I expect him to be re-signed and to take over the Daniels role in a few years. As the second tight end, Graham had 28 catches for 263 yards and three touchdowns. He isn’t quite as athletic as Daniels, but if he does get the role, he could put up numbers close to what Daniels posts on a year in and year out basis. His upside is capped, but he does have high end TE2 value if he stays with the Texans and Daniels moves on after his contract expires.
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