Dynasty Capsule: Chicago Bears

Jacob Feldman

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

The Chicago Bears started hot and then once again faded down the stretch in 2012, which led to the firing of their head coach, Lovie Smith. The good news for Bears fans is that many of their core offensive players are young or in their prime, meaning that if they can fix the offensive line and reload in a few places on defense, they can keep things going.

Quarterbacks

Jay Cutler

jay_cutlerCutler always has been and always will be one of those players the media just loves to go after. Part of it is that Cutler has that ideal mix of arrogance and foolishness that makes him say and do things in front of a camera before he actually thinks it through – people just love to hate him. If you can get past all of that, you get a player that is one of the more physically gifted passers in the entire league. Other than the raw physical tools, the good news is that Cutler is only 29 years old. It seems like he should be a few years older than that, but it means that he still has many years left and still might be working towards his peak.

The bad news is that he hasn’t quite turned out like the Bears hoped he would when they gave up multiple first round picks for him. Even with Brandon Marshall coming to town, Cutler was a low end QB2 in most fantasy leagues. He failed to top 200 yards in eight of his games this season. The issue is that the mind isn’t quite on par with the physical tools, which causes him to make some rather questionable decisions which lead to bad passes or him forcing the ball to one receiver when others are open. The fact he’s had multiple play callers and offensive schemes over the years doesn’t help, either. Injuries are also a bit of a concern for Cutler – he’s had a few concussions over the years as well as various other little injuries.

Overall, Cutler has the tools to succeed and be a decent QB2 or maybe even low end QB1. However, he is going to need a better offensive line to keep him upright to avoid those injuries as well as give him a little bit more time to throw the ball and make it through his progressions. With a new, offensive minded coach coming in, the game plan will be changing as well. Unfortunately, it is probably going to take a few years before Cutler lives up to his potential. Counting on him as your backup or in a 2QB league for the 2013 season probably isn’t the best option, but if things work out, he is a good buy low prospect.

Of course all of that development is a little bit clouded by the fact that Cutler is entering the last year of his contract in 2013. He is slated to be paid $8.5 million for the season. The Bears will likely try to re-sign him to a deal near the five year, $50 million deal he signed back in 2009.

Others

Unfortunately for the Bears, they don’t have any other quarterbacks of note under contract for the 2013 season. Jason Campbell was the backup for the 2012 season, but he is a free agent. He went 32-for-51 with only 265 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. In other words, he really didn’t live up to expectations. Journeyman Josh McCown was also on roster in 2012, but is a free agent at the current point as well. The Bears will definitely be looking to add someone in free agency, through the draft, or both.

Running Backs

Matt Forte

Forte falls into the very good, but not great tier of NFL running backs. He doesn’t excel at anything other than being very good across the board. This gets him a little underrated in many circles, just because he doesn’t wow anyone. He does consistently produce low end RB1 numbers or high end RB2 numbers in PPR leagues even though he’s been running behind one of the worst lines in the league – this is largely thanks to his role in the passing game as his career low is 44 receptions. He just turned 27, so you should be able to count on 2 more years of him producing at that level, especially if the Bears address the offensive line.

Some are starting to think of him as a little injury prone, but I don’t think that’s a fair label for him. He started all 16 games during his first three years in the league. In 2011, he took a helmet to the knee and missed four games as a result. He missed one and a half games in 2012 due to an ankle sprain. That’s it.

The downside on Forte has always been the low touchdown numbers, which limit his upside in fantasy. He has a total of 26 rushing touchdowns in five seasons. To put it in perspective, Arian Foster is just one shy of that number in just the last two seasons. Forte has always struggled in short yardage. That, combined with his age and back-loaded contract might lead the Bears to invest in an heir in a year or two from now, but that is probably the 2014 or 2015 draft plan.

Michael Bush

Bush was signed as insurance for Forte and to act as the short yardage back. He ended up rushing 114 times for 411 yards and five scores. He didn’t look very explosive between the twenties when acting as the change of pace guy, and he wasn’t quite as effective as the Bears had hoped at the goal line. He managed to convert 5-of-11 attempts in goal to go situations, which is okay, but certainly not great.

He’ll be 29 at the start of the next season and is set to make a $1.5 million salary with a $1 million dollar roster bonus. His 2014 salary jumps up to $2.8 million. Unless he becomes more effective both between the twenties and at the goal line, I would be surprised to see him stick around past the 2013 season. He isn’t a long term answer in fantasy or in the NFL.

Armando Allen

The Bears are pretty thin behind Forte and Bush. Allen is technically third in line right now, but is little more than a practice squad level talent. At 5’10” and 190 pounds, he isn’t cut out to be a major cog in anyone’s rushing scheme. He did show nice burst on a 46 yard touchdown run back in week five, but that was well after the game was already decided. He doesn’t belong on fantasy radars and neither does any other back currently under contract.

Wide Receivers

Brandon Marshall

When the Bears traded for Brandon Marshall in the 2012 offseason, many dreamed of his return to the top tier of fantasy wide receivers. It is fair to say he surpassed even the staunchest of Marshall supporters. Marshall posted career highs in just about every statistical category during the 2012 season. He was second in the league in catches and targets, third in yards and fourth in touchdowns. He was truly dominant this season.

After a season like that, the only place Marshall can really go is down a bit. While I don’t think there will be a major drop off, I do think that the Bears will try to get a few more people involved. Marshall accounted for 45% of the passes thrown by the Bears, 50% of the yards and 52% of the touchdowns. The Bears realize they simply can’t be successful in today’s NFL when one receiver is asked to do that much. The good news is that even if Marshall sees a 20% drop off in his numbers, he’s still looking at a 94/1,200/9 line, which is definitely within the range of WR1 numbers.

Aside from being very gifted, Marshall’s name is synonymous with off the field issues. He has had numerous issues with the law ranging from fights at night clubs to domestic violence situations. He also has issues when it comes to slipping on McDonald’s bags and ending up with wounds that look a lot like knife stabs as a result. He also has some chronic hip issues that might make him drop off faster than most receivers. He’ll be 29 at the start of the 2013 season and is under contract through the 2014 season. After a great year and no incidents recently, his peak dynasty value is very near, if not already here.

Alshon Jeffery

The 2012 rookie was expected to step into the starting lineup and be Marshall’s wing man. While he did end up being the eventual starter, the season didn’t quite go as planned. The big bodied receiver missed a total of six games due to two different injuries. The first was a broken hand suffered while hauling in one of his three touchdown catches on the year. The second injury was a knee scope to repair some minor damage.

The injuries weren’t the only concern for the rookie. In the ten games he played in, he only managed to produce a 24/367/3. Another way to look at it is 2.4 catches for 37 yards and a touchdown every 3-4 games. Part of it wasn’t his fault as Cutler was locked in on Marshall the vast majority of the season, and when he wasn’t, he was running for his life behind a bad line. However, Jeffery struggled to separate from defenders without pushing off, and he also had some issues with dropping catchable passes.

There is some talent here, but he’s going to need to work on his route running and focus. Marshall has promised to take the young receiver under his wing this offseason and work on how to play the role of a big receiver in the NFL. For the time being, Jeffery is limited to the label of a prospect. While he has the talent to push into the top 25 WRs somewhere down the road, he is a little raw right now. Plus, he needs to earn the trust of Cutler to get more than three or four looks a game.

Earl Bennett

On any other team, Bennett might not have been given a chance. The lack of other talent for the Bears combined with the fact that he has a ton of chemistry with his college teammate, Jay Cutler, were the perfect storm for Bennett to become the slot receiver for the Bears. Overall, Bennett is a very average talent. He isn’t a player that jumps out at you in any one area other than the comfort level that Cutler feels with him.

Like every other receiver not named Marshall, Bennett wasn’t involved a ton this season. He ended with 29 receptions, 375 yards and two touchdowns over the 12 games that he was active. He missed several games in the middle of the season due to a concussion and a few more with a hand injury. He just isn’t a special talent and doesn’t really belong on fantasy rosters unless it is a super deep league. He’s under contract through the 2015 season though, so he’ll continue to have a small role in the offense.

Devin Hester

Perhaps the most prolific returner in NFL history, it is a little sad to hear people talk about Hester now. With zero returns for scores this year and “only” six in the last five regular seasons, he has lost a little bit of his magic. That is a true shame because during his first two years, few things were more exciting than watching a team kick the ball to Hester.

Over the years, the Bears have tried to get Hester more involved in the passing game, but it just hasn’t worked out. Now at the age of 30, and entering the final year of his contract, he may be out of chances with the Bears or any other team for that matter.

Eric Weems

Signed by the Bears in 2012, Weems was billed as being the full time returner to give Hester time to focus on one last chance at being a receiver. Hester struggled at the transition to receiver once again and then went back to being the returner, leaving Weems without much of a role. He is signed cheaply through the 2014 season, but isn’t going to be involved much in the passing game. He’s strictly a returner.

Tight Ends

Kellen Davis

Entering the 2012 season, there were some that felt Davis could be a sleeper tight end. With the lack of proven talent in the receiver group, it only seemed logical. Those that took the flier on Davis were disappointed, as were the Bears. Davis had only 19 catches on 44 targets, and he was credited with eight drops on the year. On those 19 catches, he only tallied 229 yards and one touchdown even while playing all 16 games.

Davis is due $2.5 million in 2013, the final year of his contract. Given his level of production, it seems pretty unlikely that he will be back at that number. Team sources and local media have identified tight end as an area of need this off-season. I expect them to cut Davis and either draft or sign an upgrade in free agency.

Evan Rodriguez

Drafted in the fourth round of the 2012 draft, Rodriguez is probably too small to function as an inline tight end. The Bears seem to agree since he saw the vast majority of his playing time functioning as a fullback or H-back type of role when he motioned out of the backfield into the slot. He wasn’t very productive with only four catches on the entire season. However, he does have an intriguing mix of speed, agility and hands to one day be a Dallas Clark type of tight end, but that is a long ways off. He is merely a deep league stash at this point.

Matt Spaeth

Signed as a blocking specialist during the 2011 off season, Spaeth really shouldn’t be on any fantasy radars. He very rarely leaves the line of scrimmage and acts more like a sixth lineman than a tight end. There is a chance that he might not even be back in 2013 since he is due nearly a $2 million dollar salary. Given that a strictly blocking tight end doesn’t really fit with the new coach’s game plan, the Bears could choose to move on.

jacob feldman