Dynasty Stock Market: The Ups and Downs of Recent QB ADP

Over the past two months, I have conducted a total of twelve dynasty startup mock drafts. Many of you have participated in these drafts and I plan to continue them throughout the off-season in preparation for startup drafts and the 2013 fantasy season.

In an off-season full of events, dynasty owners look forward to the Rookie Combine, NFL free agency, the NFL draft and the start of training camps, while I relish the chance to participate in these mock drafts and analyze the data they produce. The most obvious use of the average draft position (ADP) data is in preparing for an upcoming startup draft. While the data is not full proof, it can give owners a good idea of where a specific player may be drafted and when position runs might begin.

The ADP data is not just for owners participating in new leagues, though. Owners in existing dynasty leagues can also use it. I’ll cover just a couple of ways the data could be valuable.

First, owners can use it to evaluate potential trades. Again, this is not the only tool one should use, but it can give owners a good idea of the current market value of certain players. Roster strength and team dynamics would, of course, play a large role in creating a balanced trade in any dynasty league. Another way to use the ADP data is to analyze a dynasty roster. This is something I have been doing lately. In the average startup draft, an owner will leave the draft with one player valued as a first round pick, one valued as a second round pick and so on. If your dynasty team is filled with multiple highly valued players, then you are likely a playoff contender. On the other hand, if your team lacks players routinely being chosen in the first three rounds, it may be time to rebuild and look towards the future – look for more on this idea in the coming weeks!

One of the top ways I make use of the data from month-to-month is by finding the players who experience drastic changes in value. Once I know this, I can use this information to make decisions about buying or selling, or just staying away from specific players. Today, I’ll take a look at some quarterbacks whose value greatly changed from our January mock draft to February drafts.

Ups

These players have all experienced dramatic rises over the one month span. We’ll take a look at the data, some possible reasons for the increase in value and discuss if owners should be buying or selling.

For some reason, quarterbacks were valued much less in February than in our January mocks. There were several quarterbacks falling multiple rounds, while only a few saw an increase in value, according to our data.

Among those was Raiders quarterback Terrelle Pryor. There has been a little bit of positive buzz regarding Pryor in the past few weeks. Earlier this month, our own Ken Kelly wrote a great article with some insight on Pryor’s future and there has also been talk that the Raiders may release veteran starter Carson Palmer. The depth chart is weak behind Palmer and the Raiders are not expected to use a day one pick on a rookie signal caller. Over the next few weeks, if things do play out this way, Pryor has a shot to earn the starting nod. While this is a possibility, I think even in round sixteen (where Pryor’s current ADP places him), I could find a better option to take a risk with.

The pair of quarterbacks who saw the biggest rise, according to percentage increase, were the two that led their respective teams to a Super Bowl matchup – Colin Kaepernick of the 49ers and the Ravens’ Joe Flacco. Both conference champions rose around 25% above their January ADP. While this number might be warranted for Kaepernick, who is now being chosen ahead of Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, I’m not sure it is for Flacco. He and the Ravens are now embattled in contract talks, although there is little doubt he will return to the team in some way for the 2013 season. Based on his Super Bowl title and being named Most Valuable Player of the game, Flacco is reportedly seeking a contract of $20 million annually. None of this makes him an elite fantasy option. He is, at best, an upside QB2 in dynasty leagues and offers no upside when being chosen in the tenth round, as he was in February mocks. Don’t be surprised to see Flacco drop back down the list in the coming months, but now is a great time to cash in on his increased value and flip Flacco for a pick or a quarterback you like more.

The final quarterback we saw take a nice jump in February was Tony Romo of the Cowboys. While Romo only increased 8%, that was enough to move him in front of Peyton Manning for the QB11 position – that means that owners are still trusting Romo as a potential starting fantasy quarterback. When looking closely at the rankings and ADP, I see a clear tier drop after Russell Wilson at QB10. After him, the next few guys are fairly interchangeable, including Manning, Romo and others like Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger. I would not be willing to invest in Romo at a QB1 price. Instead, go after one of these other veterans who are being valued at a lower cost. Also, if Romo is currently your backup quarterback, now is a good time to move him for a younger backup like Josh Freeman, Andy Dalton or Ryan Tannehill. Based on our data, you might be able to make that deal and possibly even pick up an extra player or pick.

Downs

On the flip side, there were a large number of quarterbacks who fell down the draft boards in February. As I mentioned earlier, quarterbacks fell as a whole in the February mock drafts, meaning even some of the top players experienced substantial drops. Because of that, I will not address every player, but will provide the data I collected, along with some thoughts on a few players.

Again, we won’t address each of these, but there are some who are not surprising.  The player who fell the most, in terms of draft position, was Eagles quarterback Nick Foles. In January, Foles looked like he might be the heir apparent for Philadelphia, and even though he had struggled as a rookie, was worth a late round flier as an upside QB3. Now, just a month later, Michael Vick has agreed to a contract to stay with the Eagles and Foles’ future is cloudy at best. In fact, he went undrafted in all six twenty round February mocks. With an outside chance he is traded to a quarterback needy team (or even if he stays in Philadelphia and plays behind an aging and injury prone Vick), Foles is still worth a roster spot in most dynasty leagues.

After Foles, the next player falling the farthest was Vick himself. I don’t really understand the reasoning behind this. Vick’s deal to stay with the Eagles had been signed, and although I would not count on him as my fantasy starter, when healthy and playing in Chip Kelly’s offense, he could post top fantasy numbers. If you are lacking a starting quarterback for the 2013 season, there are worse players to gamble on than Vick.

Among the next few players falling, we see three young starters that dynasty owners may be growing frustrated with; Tampa Bay’s Josh Freeman, the Vikings Christian Ponder and Titans quarterback Jake Locker. Again, each of these players are still young quarterbacks, but dynasty owners and NFL fans have become spoiled with the instant success of many of today’s top passers. Each of these players have also dealt with rumors that their teams could bring in competition for the starting position in 2013. I, too, am having my doubts if any of these players will ever be fantasy starters.  At this price and based on what they have shown over the past two seasons, I would take a chance on rostering either Locker or Freeman, but I have given up hope for Ponder, although if you are a believer, his price is obviously very inexpensive.

Several of the other quarterbacks dropping down the draft boards were veteran quarterbacks. Among them were Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Phillip Rivers, Matt Schaub and Eli Manning. One of the annual rites of the off-season is veteran players tend to lose value. Dynasty owners often get caught up with having the “prettiest” roster, filled with the hottest names being discussed on Twitter and in the DLF Forums. This year those names include Colin Kaepernick, David Wilson, Randall Cobb and Kyle Rudolph. Now, those players (and many similar players in the past) could be wise investments for owners, but that should not mean the veterans have to be swept aside, yet that is exactly what happens every year. I am as guilty as anyone when it comes to this. Age is the primary reason for the drop in value of each of the players mentioned here. These players are at different stages of their career and have different talent levels. Brady and Peyton Manning can still produce well enough to lead your team to the playoffs as your fantasy starter. Roethlisberger and Eli Manning will also post a great deal of great fantasy games, possibly even enough to end up as top ten quarterbacks in 2013. Rivers and Schaub may be done as fantasy starters and offer little to no upside as reserves.

The one player who every dynasty owner knew was in for a fall in our February mocks was Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III. His injury and subsequent comeback and re-injury happened about the time the January mock drafts were getting underway. Knowing little about the severity of the injury, he ended January with an ADP of 14 overall and was, on average, the second quarterback taken behind Aaron Rodgers. News has since come out that Griffin tore both his ACL and LCL and is in danger of missing time in 2013. While recent reports suggest he could be ready as early as week one, that is still a long shot and could increase his risk for further injury. According to the percentage drop, Griffin had the biggest by far of any quarterback, falling over 128% from his previous draft position. In February drafts, he was taken at pick #32, placing him in the middle of the third round. While this may still seem like a steep price to pay for an injured player, prior to the knee injury, Griffin was basically unattainable in dynasty leagues. It would take something like this injury for some of his owners to even consider dealing him away. If the Griffin owner in your league is willing to sell, I would make a strong offer. I would still prefer Griffin over almost every other quarterback in dynasty leagues.

Next time, I’ll take a look at some pass catchers (both wide receivers and tight ends) who are experiencing a drastic value change.

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Ryan McDowell

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

In addition to his senior leadership role here at DLF, Ryan is also a husband, father of three and PE teacher. Ryan is the commissioner of multiple dynasty leagues, most notably the Kitchen Sink Dynasty Leagues. Here at DLF, Ryan’s focus is on identifying, monitoring and analyzing player value.

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