Dynasty Capsule: Miami Dolphins

Jaron Foster Posted On March 1, 2013

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

We continue our path through the NFL with the Miami Dolphins.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Tannehill

Following a training camp battle with veterans David Garrard and Matt Moore, it was the former Texas A&M wide receiver that started under center for Miami from day one of the season. In fantasy however, the eighth pick in the 2012 NFL draft was overshadowed by stellar seasons from his fellow rookie quarterbacks. Averaging 216 passing yards in his 15 games, Tannehill threw 12 touchdown passes and 13 interceptions while rushing for 214 yards and two touchdowns.

While these statistics kept him on redraft waiver wires, dynasty owners saw some reason for optimism heading into 2013. Over the final six games of the season, Tannehill rushed for 181 yards. From weeks 14 through 16, the fantasy playoffs in most leagues, the young quarterback threw five touchdowns passes without being picked off and averaged 40 rushing yards per game. Turnovers were an issue with nine fumbles (four lost) and more interceptions than touchdowns, but Tannehill showed flashes of the athleticism and potential that made him the third quarterback taken in the top eight picks.

Free-Agent LT Jake Long is expected to sign elsewhere, and there’s a good chance that Reggie Bush departs as well. This would leave the Miami offense with holes to fill and few playmakers. Through the draft (they have the #12 overall pick) and free agency (Greg Jennings reunion with Joe Philbin? Perhaps Mike Wallace?), improvement along the offensive line and at the receiver position would boost Tannehill’s outlook this season.

Despite improved play near the end of last season, Tannehill isn’t ready to be trusted in fantasy lineups. He’s a good prospect down the road for dynasty leagues, so stash him and see how this season plays out.

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Pat Devlin (RFA)

Though he didn’t play a snap in either of his first two NFL seasons, team management has been vocal about their support for Devlin as Tannehill’s backup in 2013. He’s got good size and arm strength along with decent accuracy, but struggles under pressure. Squarely behind (at least) Tannehill in the depth chart, he has little fantasy value.

Matt Moore (UFA)

A solid NFL backup, Moore’s name has been raised as an option for many teams. Miami could still bring him back, but they’ll have competition for his services. Unless he secures a starting job elsewhere, which is unlikely, leave him on the waiver wire.

Running Backs

Lamar Miller

After posting a 4.4 40, the fastest of any running back at the Combine, medical concerns caused Miller to slip into the fourth round of the 2012 NFL Draft. In limited action, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry as a rookie in 2012 and showed good hands and explosiveness out of the backfield. Solid pass protection skills kept him on the field more near the end of the season, when he averaged eight touches a game from weeks 15 through 17 (compared with 2.5 touches a game through week 14).

In line to take over as lead back with the likely departure of Reggie Bush, Miller is a great fit in Joe Philbin’s system. The presence of Daniel Thomas and unconfirmed status of Bush (as of the time of this writing) may have kept Miller’s stock at a reasonable level to this point, but it will likely skyrocket as the off-season brings more clarity to the Dolphins’ running back situation. Shoulder and knee surgeries mean that his name frequents the injury report, but talent and opportunity make Miller a great breakout candidate.

Daniel Thomas

In early January, Thomas had knee surgery, but is expected to be available for the start of training camp. However, he was passed on depth chart starting in week 14 (prior to the injury that led to his off-season surgery) and Miami’s front office has all but announced that Miller is their lead back heading into 2013.

When he was on the field, Thomas’ 3.6 yards per carry paled to Miller’s 4.9. Overall, Thomas rushed for 325 yards, caught 15 passes for 156 yards, and rushed for four touchdowns in 2012. Don’t expect a boost in productivity without an injury to Miller, and even then the Dolphins would probably bring in a veteran to at least split carries.

Marcus Thigpen

Undrafted out of Indiana in 2009, Thigpen landed with Miami after stops in Philadelphia and Denver. He’s primarily a kick returner and should not be drafted.

Jovorskie Lane

Playing in all 16 games at fullback, Jermichael Finley’s half brother vultured three short-yardage touchdowns and caught 11 passes in 2012. Unless you’re in a very deep touchdown-only league, don’t bother.

Reggie Bush (UFA)

If Miami wants Bush to return to the fold, their lack of an offer and vocal commitment to Miller has hidden it well. A dozen teams could have varying levels of interest in the veteran that fell just shy of a 1,000 yard rushing season. His 4.3 yards-per-carry and six touchdowns on the ground were supplemented by 35 receptions for 292 yards and two more scores, statistics good for #15 among running backs in PPR leagues after finishing #12 in 2011.

In January DLF mock drafts, Bush was the 22^nd running back selected (just after Maurice Jones-Drew, Jonathan Stewart, and Mikel Leshoure and before Ahmad Bradshaw, Mark Ingram and Frank Gore). Uncertainty surrounding his destination is likely contributing to this draft slot, and once he signs be sure to check updated mock ADPs. Bush’s receptions are drastically lower these days than early in his career (from 161 in 2006-2007 down to 78 in 2011-2012), so his reputation as being significantly more valuable in PPR leagues is outdated. He’s a low-RB2 or flex back in either format, but monitor his landing spot.

Wide Receivers

Davone Bess

Despite missing the last three games of the season with a back injury, Bess hauled in 61 receptions for 778 yards over 13 games. At this point, you know what you’re getting: 4-5 receptions and 50-60 yards per game on average, translating to about five points per game in standard scoring and ten in PPR. With an ADP of #77 among wide receivers and #200 overall in DLF’s January mock drafts, Bess is going in the round #17 as a WR7. Going after the likes of Brian Quick and Doug Baldwin, he’ll be available if you want a player to consistently get you a few points a week.

Armon Binns

The WR2 opposite AJ Green in Cincinnati was a major question mark heading into 2012. Following a handful of 3-5 reception games in early 2012 for Cincinnati, Binns was a popular waiver wire pickup. However, he faded as quickly as he had risen and slid down the depth chart.

After Miami picked him up, he caught six of the 11 passes thrown his way in the final two games of the season, but failed to make a strong impression with the team. The team’s off-season activity will dictate whether Binns gets a shot at the roster in training camp.

Rishard Matthews

The absence of Bess in week 17 opened up a starting spot for the rookie Matthews, and he caught two of the three passes thrown his way for 37 yards. Though he wasn’t even targeted in 2012 until week ten, he finished the season with 11 receptions on 20 targets for 151 yards.

A seventh round pick out of Nevada in 2012, the Dolphins liked his route-running and “deceptive vertical speed,” meaning he could be in line for a bigger workload in 2013. However, he likely wouldn’t be more than the third or fourth receiving option.

Marlon Moore (RFA)

Targeted 12 times over the course of the season, Moore has been primarily utilized on special teams. He caught six passes for 116 yards, including a 29 yard touchdown pass in week six and a 37 yard reception the following week. From there, he fell off the radar almost entirely.

Despite the lack of competition at the receiver position, Moore was unable to capitalize on his opportunities. Tannehill never seemed to trust him, and if he couldn’t take a step forward in 2012 with Miami he probably never will. Expect him to move onto another roster, and avoid him in fantasy until he proves worthy of a roster spot.

Brian Hartline (UFA)

A breakout season in 2012 came at the right time as Hartline enters free agency. He nearly matched his 2010 and 2011 combined totals (78 receptions for 1,164 yards) this past season (74/1,083) while continuing his trend of one touchdown a year.

Hartline is reportedly looking for a long-term contract at $6 million a year, which is comparable to the 2012 salaries of Anquan Boldin, Roddy White and Pierre Garcon. With so many holes to fill, bringing him back is unlikely. Given the amount of money he’ll likely get from his new team, Hartline should put up decent stats but don’t draft him expecting anything more than WR3 numbers.

Editor’s Note: Stay tuned for tomorrow’s article which will feature why Hartline could be a good “buy” candidate.

Tight Ends

Michael Egnew

A solid receiver who can’t block, Egnew was inactive much of the season and didn’t catch a single pass in 2012. Shortly after the season ended, reports started streaming out of Miami that teammates and coaches questioned his work ethic and toughness. This would explain why he wasn’t more active despite the team’s desperate need for playmakers at the receiver position.

Egnew is worth a roster spot in deep dynasty leagues given his pass-catching skills and what appears to be more opportunity with Fasano on his way out the door. However, his reputation may put him on the roster bubble in training camp if he can’t get his act together.

Charles Clay

Split between fullback and tight end, Clay was targeted 33 times prior to being put on IR following a week 15 knee injury. He finished the season with 18 receptions for 212 yards and two touchdowns, including a late-season game with six receptions for 84 yards and a score.

With Fasano on his way out, and Egnew possibly joining him, Clay could be in a great position to succeed in 2013. Joe Philbin used to line up Jermichael Finley outside to create mismatches, and could use the deceptively speedy Clay in a similar role. Keep him on your radar and stash him if you can, he’s a talented player that could soon have opportunity.

Anthony Fasano (UFA)

A much better blocker than receiver, Fasano was never much of a fantasy factor. His 41 receptions this year were a career high, but they only produced 332 yards. His five touchdowns kept him on the fantasy bubble, but that’s about his ceiling.

Entering his 8^th season, Fasano is expected to sign elsewhere as Miami hasn’t expressed much interest in bringing him back. He shouldn’t be on fantasy radars, and clearly isn’t as he went undrafted in every January DLF mock.

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Jaron Foster

Contributor at Dynasty League Football

A data analyst by profession, Jaron has been writing for DLF since 2012. Native New Englanders, Jaron and his wife are introducing their son (2010) and daughter (2014) to the Patriots. You can regularly find him on Twitter and in the DLF Forum at odd hours.