Imagine you’re sitting at your start-up draft and you have the third pick. Now imagine that Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green are the first two players off the board. With the top two wide receivers off the board, you’re left to have your pick of the running backs. Now the tricky part – should that pick be Trent Richardson, Doug Martin, LeSean McCoy, Adrian Peterson or Ray Rice? Any of those players would be reasonable options, but I have other ideas.
Let me start by telling you a tale of two running backs.
In 2008, there was a rookie running back who was the third rushing option on his team. Despite being the low man on the totem pole, he showed significant promise and was already the most dynamic pure runner on his team. The following season he was drafted as the RB27 in keeper/dynasty leagues. He went on to have a breakthrough season and lead his team with 254 carries while finishing as the fourth best fantasy running back. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry that season and caught 78 passes at ten yards a pop. It could have been even better, but he ceded goal line work to his running mate. In 2010, he was the RB4 off the board and the fourth overall pick. He proceeded to finish as the RB10 ranked that season, the RB1 in 2011 and the RB6 in 2012.
In 2011, there was another running back who was the low man in a running back committee. He was also the most dynamic playmaker on his team, but was stuck behind an aging but gifted veteran. At the start of the 2012 season he was the RB34 drafted in keeper/dynasty leagues. He proceeded to lead his team in carries with 207 and finished as the RB7 in fantasy football. He averaged a staggering six yards per carry and caught 43 passes at almost 11 yards per catch, but ceded goal line work to his running mates.
Everyone reading should already know the two players are Ray Rice and C.J. Spiller. Rice spent time frustrating owners playing behind Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain. Spiller, of course, has dealt with Fred Jackson and even Tashard Choice on the goal line. Just like Ray Rice in 2011, Spiller’s time to shine has arrived. Will he lose some goal line opportunities to Jackson again in 2013? Probably, but does it really matter? Ray Rice had just 14 carries inside the opponent’s ten yard line in 2010, but still finished as the tenth best running back. In 2011, he had 30 carries inside the ten and finished as the top running back in fantasy. Spiller had just six carries inside the ten in 2012, but was still the #7 ranked back. If he can get 30-40 more touches and another five to ten goal line touches, he will challenge for the top spot.
If you could go back in time to 2010 and draft any running back, who would it be? The only names that belong in the conversation are Peterson, Arian Foster, McCoy and Ray Rice. With Spiller presently on the precipice of fantasy greatness similarly to Rice in 2010, shouldn’t he be considered one the top options moving forward? In early 2013 mock drafts, he’s being selected eighth among running backs.
Here’s some more food for thought.
Adrian Peterson had one of the most remarkable seasons in NFL history in 2012. He was stopped a miniscule nine yards shy the all time rushing record less than one year after blowing out his knee. He averaged an astounding six yards per carry on 348 touches and scored 12 touchdowns. With all things considered, it was the best season a running back has ever had. He’s a legendary and possibly robotic running back. Someday we’ll be telling our kids how their NFL heroes don’t compare to him.
We’re all together so far, right? Good, now please don’t close your computer in disgust after reading the next sentence. C.J. Spiller was better last season. Wait! No, please come back and hear me out.
To those of you who stuck around, thank you and here’s my reasoning – Spiller was better on a per touch basis and averaged .82 fantasy points per touch while Peterson averaged .78 per touch. Secondly, Spiller forced 66 missed tackles on 250 touches (one missed tackle for every 3.8 touches) and Peterson forced 76 missed tackles on his 411 attempts (one missed tackle for every 5.4 touches). Also, Minnesota had the third best run blocking line in the NFL compared to Buffalo’s #22 ranked unit. Lastly, Peterson also played along side a slightly more efficient quarterback than Spiller with Christian Ponder finishing just slightly ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick according to Pro Football Focus. To salvage my reputation, I’ll close this paragraph by acknowledging that Peterson’s performance and consistency when combined with his knee injury trumps everything Spiller did this season. Perhaps a better way to put it would have been that Spiller was a more efficient runner, but saying it that way is just boring.
If Spiller had the same number of opportunities as Peterson (and managed to stay healthy) he would have scored 337 fantasy points last season. He would have tied for the top overall spot amongst all players with Drew Brees. It’s not likely Spiller will see that heavy of a work load next season, but it’s safe to assume that the new coaching staff will feed him the rock with more consistency than Chan Gailey. If he can total 300 touches, or just 50 more than 2012, he should finish as a top three running back.
C.J. Spiller was the most elusive running back in 2012. He’s also just 25 years old and has a measly 388 career carries. He has a career yard per carry average of 5.4 and averaged six yards per carry in 2012. His role may not be as clearly defined as some of the other options, but McCoy may be in a committee next season and who knows how Jamaal Charles will be used under Andy Reid. Ray Rice and Arian Foster are getting older and racking up carries at an alarming rate. Trent Richardson has some questions about his knees and didn’t display the game breaking skills many had hoped for as a rookie.
Despite currently being taken in the second round of mock drafts as the ninth back overall, Spiller is squarely in the top five for me and I have a hard time making a more solid case for any other running back in the league. He may not be the safest choice, but safe choices should be reserved for neighborhoods and driving habits. We’re trying to build dynasties.
Loading ...
Dear DLF.
I didn’t know Mark Rockwell or his work prior to this article being published.
Now, we had a chance to meet this young man, and boy that’s just a straight shooter with upper management written all over him.
Glad you could meet!
Sorry for the office space reference, I just really liked this article, and I absolutely could not agree more with your conclusions. Great article, Mark.
Thanks for reading and the kind comment, but have you seen my stapler?
Love Spiller skill set. Not sold he can handle 18+ touches per game. Startup taking Richardson over him every time
I wouldn’t argue with that. I don’t think there’s a wrong choice.
I’m a little confused on how you can say that Minnesota had the 3rd best offensive line in the league last year.. if you watched any of their games, you would be hard pressed to say they were even in the top half of the league. Peterson made the line look a whole heck of a lot better than they really were on several occasions, not the other way around.
It is also dangerous to compare thing on a per touch basis. Per target, James Jones was the best receiver in the NFL last season followed by Santana Moss. I could make that arguement since the league is about scoring and Jones caught a touchdown every 7 targets and Moss caught one every 8. Those wouldn’t be correct arguements though.
Part of what makes someone elite is that they can do what they do, without getting injuried, at a high volume. I agree that Spiller is probably under rated by some, but to say that he was better than Peterson is a bit too much of a stretch. I like the rest of the article though. Nice work!
Thanks Jacob. To be fair, I did clarify that it was really Spiller being more efficient rather than better. I knew this article would cause a little controversy and I felt like using the word “better” would get conversation started.
I got my oline run blocking numbers from Pro Football Focus, but agree that Peterson made them look better than they were. I do think, based on games I watched, that they were a solid unit in the run. Maybe not the 3rd best, but better than buffalo.
There is a difference when talking about points per touch with receivers compared to runners because of a huge variance based on big play speedsters vs possession type guys. That variance would be smaller amongst running backs I would think. Also James Jones #s were inflated by TDs. Considering Spiller wasn’t a GL back I think it proves my efficiency point even more. It wouldn’t be fair to compare tolbert or andre brown on a points per touch basis because most of their touches were in the RZ.
Regardless of all that I agree that AP is elite and the best all around back last year and probably one more year. Spillers youth tips the scales for me.
I believe that the per touch metric for RBs skews towards the RB that gets a higher percentage of touches from catches than carries. Spiller had 17.2% of his touches from catches, While Peterson only had 10.3% of his touches from catches. This is a bit like comparing per touch effectiveness between WRs and RBs… apples and oranges (perhaps Fuji apples vs Granny Smith in this case) I’m seeing it used more and more across the fantasy website universe. I’m not clear on the usefulness of the per touch metric.
It does not take away from your larger point on Spiller’s upside, thanks for the good read.
I was so high – literally – on CJ last year, and was able to draft him in every league EXCEPT for my dynasty league (a couple leagues are keeper leagues, and I WILL be keeping him over Doug Martin). Through shrewd trading and drafting, I’ve acquired considerable depth, and I have decided that the best thing for me to do is shed this considerable depth in a trade for Mr. Spiller. I’m willing to pay a premium markup as I’m convinced Mr. Spiller is the top dawg for the foreseeable future. I strongly advise others to follow suit.
I like Spiller as a top 5-6 guy, but I don’t know that I’d take him over Martin. While Spiller might be due for a bump in usage, there’s no question who THE guy is in TB. Martin received an absurd 86% of TB’s carries (by running backs), and coupled that with being the 4th most targeted player on the team as well. And he did all this as a rookie.
I think Spiller is an elite RB, but I’d be hard pressed to take him over a guy who finished his rookie season as the RB2 in PPR leagues.
Martin would be one guy I’d be tempted with. I like Spiller’s talent better, but is it that much better to over come martin’s huge situational advantage. I don’t know, it’s close.
Love Spiller’s upside. Some of his runs last year were jaw dropping. He’d rip off 60+ yard catches / runs seemingly with ease. However, two points caution me on betting the farm on spiller just yet. (1) Can he really handle the full load season in and season out? There is more than mere suggestion to indicate that perhaps he cannot. Maybe that’s part of why Chan held him back some? Maybe he can, but he has to prove it to me first before I’ll confidently take him over the other A-list RB’s listed in this article. (2) Fred Jackson is not done. At least one more year (maybe 2) sharing the backfield with Spiller. My read is that he will be more than a change of pace back. My suspicion is 60-40 split in Spiller’s favor. Even with that, though, Spiller should easily be a top RB1. I’d still confidently take him as my dynasty RB1.
I don’t like the idea of prorating carries for a back. Wear and tear lower ypc unless your name is Barry Sanders. However Fred Jackson? The guy is getting old and he is not close to the talent of Spiller.
Good points. FJax is getting old, but has plenty left in the tank, and (my opinion only) would be a starting RB if not for the phenominal Spiller. Let’s compare notes end of season and see how it went for both FJax & Spiller.
Mark,
I like your article as you make some good, well thought out points. You certainly seem to be drinking the Spiller Koolaid though. I honestly don’t think comparing him to A.P. was overly benifical to your point. Also, as a Vikings fan for years, they do not have a good line… If they did, Gerhardt’s numbers would be better. Regardless of where you got the numbers from; they are flawed. Peterson simply made an average run blocking line look better. But I do digress – the vikes are prob better than the Bills. To be straight forward – do not think that Spiller will be able to handle a work load bigger than what he has done already. I think he’d break down and miss time. He is explosive, talented, and electric. He is a guy that doesn’t need 300 plus touches to be in the top ten of fantasy scoring rb’s. As an OC, using Spiller wisely and sparingly I think is best for the team. Again, the Bill’s don’t care what kind of fantasy production Spiller gives his owners. They’d rather he stay healthy and productive so he can help them crawl out of the celler. A healthy Spiller for 17 plus weeks is what they want. I think taking him 3rd over all is a mistake but that is just my philosophy. I see Julio being in the league and being quite effective long after Spiller has lost his following. Good rb’s are rare and therefore I do see the reasoning of considering him but taking him over T.Richardson, D. Martin I think is also a mistake. But, to each there own. In that league I would have loved to own pick 4.
I was waiting for someone to really get on me for the AP/Spiller comp. I figured it was coming. As I wrote in the article, I wasn’t trying to take anything from AP. They’re very different players. AP is the most complete back I’ve ever seen. He’s a freak. Spiller is too, but in another mold. I have no idea and doubt Spiller could hack an AP type workload, my point was he doesn’t need it. I don’t see why he couldn’t handle 50-75 more touches. If he gets that, he’ll be a top 3 back.
As far as the kool aid comment… I’m bathing it.
Thanks for the feedback.
*bathing “in” it*
With all due respect your flat wrong about AP making all of his own holes. The additions of Matt Kalil and Jerome Felton made the Vikings run blocking legit, and way better than they have been. Gerhardts numbers aren’t better because he sucks. Once Peterson made it through the line of scrimmage he did his own damage, but the line opened up holes for him.
“Gerhardts numbers aren’t better because he sucks”
clapping emoticon.
Who to keep between McCoy and newton?
Ps my league starts 2 qb’s
In a 2QB league you must keep Cam Newton.
Try to get value for McCoy though, if possible.
You have to choose between those two? Ugh. I agree, you gotta keep Cam.
I also love Spiller upside…so much so I made what I thought was on over the top offer to one owner only to be rejected……am concerned that his size will limit him some on both touches and constant injuries even with all his elusiveness he does seem to one of those backs who takes some big shots….love the guy but 3 in a start up is a big reach IMO
You aren’t alone there. I appreciate you taking the time to read and comment. I certainly wouldn’t fault anyone for picking Martin or the other guys 3rd. I was just making a case for my man crush.
I actually endorse the comparison to Peterson’s output, but I was a little surprised you didn’t mention Spiller’s early season injury as well. Not only did he not miss a game, it didn’t look like it slowed him down whatsoever.
Drafted C.J 4th overall in 2010 and have been waiting for this moment. Hoping for a big uptick in touches and catches in 2013. I’ve come close many times to pulling the cord and getting what I could for him but have been rebuilding and am glad I stuck it out. 2013 will be my just rewards………I hope
picked up spiller for the 2.06 and a swap from 1.06 to 1.09 last year. the dude offered that deal to me, my jaw almost hit the ground when i saw that, i hit accept as fast as i could…a few weeks later i picked up jamaal charles for shonn greene, miles austin and matt schaub because the guy wanted qb depth… rode those 2 cats to a title this year…mc lovin it
The comparison does not work for me. In 2009, the year Rice broke out, was also the year Flacco broke out… going from 2971/14/12 in 2008 to 3613/21/12 for 2009. A good QB takes a lot of pressure off a RB and opens the holes.
I will not jump on the Spiller bandwagon until I know the direction of the QB situation in Buffalo, the whole team, and he preforms at stud level a little longer. Not in a dynasty league. I would not risk using a first round pick in a start-up on any player but those proven ‘stud’. That is not the time to be grabbing at “possibilities”. Just look at the first 2-3 seasons of Moreno, Greene, Jacobs, Wells, Mendenhall, and such and see that the hype can be just wishful thinking.
I think too many people have Spiller on their rosters and are trying to talk themselves into believing he will be someone. He might. I need proof before I would waste a high pick on him in a start-up dynasty league…
my .02
Thanks for the opinion and I understand the “safer” approach. With that said, even with his poor QB this season he finished as the 7th best running back in standard scoring leagues. I have a hard time seeing where that worsens. The only possibility is if the new coaches still really like FJax. Thanks again.
You are comparing CJ Spiller to Shonn Greene, Mendenhall and Brandon Jacobs? That is so wrong on so many levels.
I’ve been a bills fan since 86, and I haven’t been so excited about a player’s skillset since Thurman was in his prime, winning MVP’s and losing his helmet.
Not comparing Spiller to what the other players have become, but the hype their numbers had shown. Mr. Rockwell is attempting to show that because Spiller’s numbers are like Rice’s, then he could be just as good. Well it doesn’t work with everyone.
Fitzpatrick is not even good enough to hold off Tarvaris Jackson, as coach Pete Metzelaars says their will be open competition for QB… and that will include anyone they draft. Sure Spiller had a good year, with a poor QB, but history dictates defenses don’t let RBs get by two years in a row with lousy QBs.
I’m of the opinion Spiller is an elite talent. AP gets it done with Ponder, Rice with Flacco before idiots called Flacco elite, Gore with Alex Smith ect. I don’t know that a good or bad QB matters.
Great article and great points in the replies. I won’t argue with the premise. I love Spillers upside.
My only critique is that AP played without Harvin and any receiving threat for half the season.
Comparing touch for touch can be flawed for many reasons as pointed out, but Spiller didn’t play half a season without Stevie.
That certainly helped Spiller. AP’s season was remarkable. Thanks for reading and the comments!
So if i told you that I got Spiller at pick #20 in a recent start up, you would tell me that I got a steal?
Yes I would!
If you don’t mind who were your first few picks or entire team? STEAL!!
Nice work. I too think Spiller could finish in top 3 rb’s this year if used properly…was curious if you red this PFF article: https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/02/22/adjusting-ypc-based-on-defensive-packages/
I found it pretty entertaining as it pertained to guys outperforming their projected ypc over a league average runner.
Look forward to more articles in the future.
Yes I did read that. Found it interesting as well, but was upset to see how much “luck” played a factor. That’s fantasy for you.
Nice article!