Editor’s Note: Over the next couple of weeks, we’re going to be sharing multiple opinions on free agency landing spots, both good and bad. This particular article is submitted by a new Member Corner author, Kevin Merlet. We welcome Kevin to the Member Corner and look forward to seeing more of his work in the future!
Free agency is just around the corner, it’s the time of year when dynasty owners cross their fingers and hope for the best. For some, their player will end up on an elite NFL offense and join the next tier of fantasy superstars. For others, their player will slowly dissolve into the abyss of an NFL depth chart. Football is truly a team sport and one free agent signing can have a ripple effect on an entire offense. Below, we take a look at a few of the NFL’s top free agents and go through some of their rumored landing spots and which team will have the best and worst impact on their fantasy production. While you may not own one of the players listed below, where they land can have a serious effect on your roster.
Greg Jennings
Despite turning thirty years old and missing fourteen games over the past two years due to injury, Jennings is still the most talented wide receiver of this free agent class. He has great hands, can run almost any route and is able to line up on both the outside and slot positions. In addition, he has had no off-field issues – this makes him suitable for any team looking for a top receiver.
Best Scenario: Indianapolis Colts
Rumors have already begun with Jennings reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin in Miami. While this is his most likely landing spot, I’m not so sure it can provide him with the targets he needs to be the receiver we know and love. Just recently the Indianapolis Colts were mentioned as a possible destination. The Colts are a pass first offense. Andrew Luck ended last year with over 4,000 yards passing and ranked fifth in passing attempts. Reggie Wayne had a stellar year and was the second most targeted receiver in league. Wayne may only have one year in the tank, which will leave the Colts with a young up-and-coming offense featuring Luck, TY Hilton, Vick Ballard, Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen. Adding Jennings would give the Colts a replacement for Wayne and consistency at receiver while their young players continue to develop. He has already stated he prefers playing in a dome rather than outdoors, and playing for the Colts means at least nine games a year on turf.
Worst Scenario: Minnesota Vikings
Last season Christian Ponder averaged only 183 passing yards per game, placing him at #31 among quarterbacks. Just to get an idea of how important Percy Harvin was to padding his stats; after only playing eight games last year, Harvin still finished third among receivers in yards after catch. The Vikings are a run first offense and don’t seem to have the quarterback play to make Jennings a reliable fantasy receiver. In Green Bay, Jennings had more touchdowns (ten), more receptions (65), and more yards (964) against the Vikings than any other opponent. Joining the Vikings means he’ll be playing for the team that accounts for about twenty percent of his career touchdowns and a little more than fifteen percent of his total yardage. Jennings had the same amount of touchdowns against the Vikings as he did against the Bears and Lions combined. Ask yourself, if Jennings had the least amount of success against the Bears and Lions with Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre passing him the ball, how much success will he have against division rivals with Ponder under center?
Wes Welker
Welker has been an anchor, a rock, a machine and a constant for fantasy owners. As a Patriot, he has averaged 112 receptions a season…take a minute to digest that stat. Welker will be turning 32 this year and with younger options on the market, the only teams I see paying him the amount he’s due are teams ready to win a title now. For Welker owners, it’s a good situation to be in, but proceed with caution because leaving New England will inevitably result in a drop in his fantasy production.
Best Scenario: New England
There are no other teams in the league that will give you the fantasy production Welker has had in New England. Many will try, but they won’t have a Tom Brady under center. Welker re-signing with New England and continuing his streak as an elite fantasy receiver is the best scenario for Welker owners.
Worst Scenario: 49ers
Houston, Denver, Dallas and San Francisco have all been listed as possible landing spots for Welker. While all of them are creative enough to make the most of his talent, the 49ers may be the worst case scenario for owners. Last season, the 49ers were thirty-first in passing attempts – it’s is a scary stat considering Welker’s value has resulted from his reception total each season. In order for Welker to put up similar numbers as he did in 2012 he would have to be targeted on forty percent of all of Colin Kaepernick’s passing attempts. While the 49ers are an extremely talented team, they just don’t throw the ball enough to satisfy Welker owners.
Reggie Bush
It’s unfortunate Reggie Bush didn’t get healthy until he signed with Miami. Imagine what his numbers would be today had he been injury-free during his time as a Saint. I believe Bush’s best years are ahead of him. Since he was drafted in 2006, he’s been one of the best receiving backs in the NFL. Last season he averaged 8.3 yards per catch and it’s about time he lands on a team that utilizes him the way he’s meant to be.
Best: Detroit Lions
The Lions lost a really important player in Jahvid Best. Their offense had a dynamic threat that made them a headache to defend and they haven’t truly bounced back. Since losing Best, the Lions are 9-17. For the past two seasons, Matthew Stafford has led the league in passing attempts – that’s an amazing stat considering Calvin Johnson is their only legitimate receiving threat. In 2011, Best only played in six games and based on his averages he would have finished the season with roughly 70 receptions and over 750 receiving yards. I think it’s well known that Bush is not a workhorse back. The best option for his fantasy production is to sign with a team looking to pass the ball; and no team passes more than the Lions (set the NFL record in 2012 for attempts in a season). If the Lions can make Joique Bell a relevant receiving back, imagine what they could do with a player like Bush.
Worst: Miami Dolphins
Prior to the 2012 season, Daniel Thomas was rumored as the number one back in Miami. For most of the season Thomas had a lingering injury and many fantasy owners thought it would be a perfect opportunity for Bush to revive his career. He ended the season in the middle of the pack in attempts, yards, receptions and receiving yards. In eleven of sixteen games last year, Bush had two receptions or less. Miami isn’t built to use him like the Saints did (where he averaged five receptions and 35 receiving yards per game over 60 games). Bush re-signing with Miami seems unlikely at the moment, but if it happens, his numbers will only decrease. Lamar Miller seems to be the go-to back next year, Daniel Thomas should be healthy, and if the Dolphins add a top receiver there will be much less to go around.
Mike Wallace
Mike Wallace is fast. He can take the top off of any defense in the league, but he has yet to prove himself as a complete receiver. He has questionable hands and has been criticized for his route running. For fantasy owners, the best scenario for Wallace is to join a team that airs out the ball.
Best: Washington Redskins
The Redskins are an interesting fit for Wallace. Last season they didn’t pass very often, but when they did, they threw deep. They ended the season ranked thirtieth in passing attempts, yet they finished twentieth in passing yards and first overall in yards per attempts. Pierre Garcon was never fully healthy; however, over the final five weeks he played in he was eighth in yards. If the Redskins are looking to continue this current offense, they would benefit highly from a player like Wallace.
Worst: Cleveland Browns
Cleveland has a new owner, new VP of personnel, a new Offensive Coordinator, and a new Head Coach. At this moment, they don’t even know if the player they drafted in the first round last year will even start. In 2012 Josh Gordon’s stats weren’t that much different than Wallace had. Gordon finished the year with 800 receiving yards, 50 receptions and five touchdowns. Meanwhile, Wallace finished with 836 yards, 64 receptions and eight touchdowns. If you were frustrated as a Wallace owner last season, expect at best similar numbers at best if he ends up in Cleveland.
Ahmad Bradshaw
Since Tiki Barber, the Giants have successfully drafted and developed running backs. Unfortunately, Bradshaw is a casualty of a well ran organization. In 2012, Bradshaw ranked eighteenth in attempts (221), but ninth in yards per carry (4.6). The Giants were twenty-third in rushing attempts (409) and Bradshaw accounted for over fifty percent of them (221). Bradshaw is a complete back and while his health will scare owners, if he ends up on a team more dedicated to the run, he may have his highest productive season yet.
Best: New York Jets
The Jets are an offensive mess. However, it’s the perfect opportunity for a player like Bradshaw. Shonn Greene was asked to handle a lot last season and Bradshaw is twice as talented as Greene. Interesting stat: last year Greene rushed 276 times for 1,063 yards. This is the same number of attempts Bradshaw had in 2010, yet Bradshaw ran for 1,235 yards. The Jets have tried to be a “ground and pound” team since Rex Ryan arrived, but they just haven’t had the talent. Bradshaw is a workhorse, and if he ends up as a Jet he will be asked to do exactly what he did as a Giant, just more of it.
Worst: Green Bay Packers
The Packers signing Bradshaw will help the Packers, but it will not help your fantasy team. The Packers are constantly one of the lowest ranked teams in rushing attempts per season. In 2012, they were ranked sixteenth in attempts. However, if you take away the fifty four attempts by Aaron Rodgers and the four attempts by Graham Harrell, they finished the year ranked twenty-eighth. Last season, Bradshaw had one fewer touchdown than all of the Packers running backs combined. If Bradshaw signs in Green Bay it means splitting reps with some combination of Alex Green, DuJuan Harris, John Kuhn and James Starks while owners slowly watch him sink into the black hole known as the depth chart.
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Thoughts on Steven Jackson?
Best: Retirement
Worst: Carolina
Best: Atlanta
Worst: Atlanta
Prediction: Atlanta
Best: Atlanta
Worst: Green Bay
Prediction: Atlanta*
*I just traded for SJax in a dynasty league, so I need him to land in the best possible spot.
I traded my first rd pick for this year back in week 8 of last year. 16 Team league, it ended up being pick 1.12, I got S.Jackson and D.Richardson, I think its gonna turn out to be a good trade for me, dont expect anything good would be left at 12, and I may have two starting RB’s. Praying Jackson goes to Atlanta, alwayz felt sorry for him in his prime playing on such bad teams.
Dude, people need to have a sense of humor. The “downvotes” on this site are really stupid.
Seriously.. SJax was nothing special last year, or the year before
*Referring to the Packers not running* I am still a believer that EVERY team eventually runs. It all depends how they are built. I think it would be different if the Packers actually had a running back to use. Perfect example would be the 2012 Patriots.
I completely agree. As a Packers fan it’s frustrating that they haven’t been able to address that position. If you look at their 2010 Superbowl run James Starks played a very important role. You could almost say he was the X factor that got them to the Superbowl.
Don’t agree with your assessment as to the worst place for Jennings to go is Minnesota. You are basing your opinion on the premise that offenses and defenses do not evolve. Ask yourself first, How good was Farve in year 2 or 3 of his career? Heck, he wasn’t even playing. Was his team(s) a run first team, How many snaps did Rodgers even Take in year 1,2 or 3 of his career? Next to none. You are comparing Ponders development to potential hall of fame qb’s that developed completely differently. Times have changed big time in regard to Qb’s. We live in a society now in which people need to feel rewarded now instead of later. There is little patience out there and frankly – it is unfair to the development of some / most Qb’s, Wr’s, and TE’s.
The Vikings are as run heavy as they are because 1. They have the best Rb in the game. 2. They do not have a wr that can dependably play the outside. 3. Their TE’s frequently are asked to block for previously mentioned best rb in the game. 4. They don’t throw too many screens to the Rb out of the backfield, And 5. The development of Ponder is a process. And frankly he has shown some nice improvement peppered with some set backs. Which I believe is normal. Too many people conveniently forget that qb’s coming into the league and tearing it up is an extreme rarity. Guys like M.Ryan, Newton, RGIII, Luck are not the NORM. More so the process takes time for many – as was the case for Manning, Brees, Brady, Favre, Rivers, Steve Young, Montana, Warren Moon, etc.
Jennings – if he were to go to Mn would likely (if healthy) lead the team in targets, He’d help Percy, Rudolph, Ponder, and Peterson. He’d put good numbers vs the division as the defenses in the Division are not the same as they used to be. REMEMBER how PISS poor the Mn defensive backs have been over the course of the last 10 years? No doubt Jennings put up good numbers against them. GB = pass heavy offense, He had two hall of fame qb’s that could easily carve up the MN – JV pass defense which have been by far the worst in the NFC north for the past several years. Just recently have they begun the process of improving in their D-backfield.
The Packers ran plenty when Ryan Grant was still rolling. It’s hard to continue to run when you’ve got hot garbage in your backfield.
Agreed – Benson was serviceable at the start of the year (not great but better than Green) and he got a decent number of touches.
I’d think going to Miami, Jacksonville, Oak, Arizona, TB, NYJ, would all be much worse than Mn for Jennings. All a guess at this point anyway.
Well done on the article. I like your take on him fitting in nicely with Indi though. Makes sense. Interesting read.
Thanks Jon, appreciate your comment. There are a number of teams that would be worse for Jennings. Leaving a passing team like the Packers is almost certain to be a downgrade.
Reggie Bush would be a perfect fit for ATL, and they wouldn’t have to outbid STL or GB to get him like they would Steven Jackson. Bush in ATL would be exactly what ATL wants out of J.Rodgers – a back that can run inside and out, block, catch the ball, score tds and play on every down. He can do all those things, he’s just an injury risk. At this stage, ppl say the same thing about Jackson, plus how much longer would ATL have Reggie compared to Jackson.
Plus knowing Bush’s lifestyle, could u really see him moving to a northern town like Cincinnati or Detroit.. no way.
Detroit plays in a dome. Also, Atlanta already has a Bush-type in Rodgers. They need someone to carry the load and use Rodgers as a change of pace guy. Plodder Shonn Greene even makes more sense in ATL than Bush does.
I know what you MEAN, but Rodgers isn’t a Bush Type as Bush has gotten bigger and can run between the tackles. Greene does not make more sense as the team needs a more dynamic runner.
Bush would be nice, Ivory makes sense, Beanie would be great.
Greene has proven his worthlessness, and I loved him coming out of Iowa….
@Andrew,
What are u talking about? When Bush entered MIA, and got the bulk of the Dolphins workload hew as a top 12 PPR RB.
Last year he got hurt and they began incorporating Thomas and Miller more. If Bush just stays healthy, he’s shown he could be a dynamic, 3-down workhorse back. The only team either in the South or West Coast (where Reggie would likely prefer and likely choose to live) would be Atlanta.
For all those thinking J.Rodgers is dynamic or will grow into a bell-cow role – they’re wrong. Hes a less than 4.0 ypc average, unblocking JAG. nothing more.
And Reggie would come with more years, at less money and better skills than S.Jackson.
Honestly – how much longer does S.Jackson have left? And his contract is likely to be exorbitant.
Love S.Jax..he’s just turning 30…..not really slowing down that much…and I think if he was at Atlanta with a chance “finally” at a Super Bowl…we’d see some renewed youth and fire in those legs….Don’t like Reggie…Detroit I could see as a 3rd down back would be a nice place for Bush.
Yeah, cus RB’s and NFL players in general can just turn back the years of wear and tear on their bodies at will, just because they want to and are on a new team.
Lot of assumptions and past stats treated as 100% accurate predictions of future ones. Jennings past stats againt the Lions have really nothing to do with what he’d do against them tomorrow, with new players on both sides of the ball. I’d think it would matter more that the lions have an awful secondary that won’t be fixed quickly. And Wallace going to Cleveland and his ceiling being a combination of his stats and Gordon’s from last year is a real head scratcher. He’s not Gordon’s twin, he’ll be on a new team, there is a new OC, you don’t know who the qb will be, Turner and Richardson should provide a running game, etc, etc.
To each his own but I’m not a fan of stats like this. I’m more concerned about the offense the guy will be in, how that offense will change next year, etc. I don’t think you can put Welker on the 49ers and say their offense doesn’t change any with him or with Kaepernick being the qb and evolving. It’s not the best place for him but I’m sure it’s better than Jacksonville.
do you see any value at all in Daniel Thomas at all? Could he even be just dropped?
I wouldn’t just drop Thomas. At least see what you could get on the trading block. I’ve read a lot about Lamar Miller being the go-to back in MIA this year, but with Bush leaving Thomas would be the number two and who knows maybe by the end of training camp Thomas is the starting back. I guess my opinion is to keep him and wait and see what happens in camp. Maybe Lamar Miller’s owner would be interested in Thomas as a handcuff?
thanks for the advice, I will hold and see what happens.
Packers haven’t lost a game because they couldn’t run. They’ve lost because they can’t stop the run.
The passing game the Packers have will always open up the running lanes. I don’t think they NEED a RB. They might want to grab one, especially if a guy like SJAX will sign for below “market value” in order to “play for a winner”.
But the Packers’ biggest issues are on the other side of the ball.
Great topic; but concerning Greg Jennings his best value is signing with Green Bay, not Indy. In fact, Indy is more the worst landing spot. With Bruce Arians gone, the Colts are ‘no longer’ a pass first offense.
They are now running the Stanford offense. Did they throw a ton, or take their shots with a power ball control game plan? Yes, Luck will have success. But do not expect the offensive pass first show you’ve seen.
Believe it or not that movie is playing in Arizona this year.
No best landing spots for a WR in Miami???
The player would immediately be the focal point of the offense. Tannenutt’s not that awful. Philbens a good coach and the teams getting better. They’ll sign a WR this year & the receivers value will improve greatly.
Great topic. But, terrible listed scenarios.
Ohh no, know the mo-mos are going to give me a thumbs down!
…bogus site, with little to zero useful content. I have 2 words for you people = “Draft Calculator”
ba bye