Dynasty Purgatory: Wes Welker
A few months ago, in his weekly Stock Report, Ryan McDowell broached the concept of roster cloggers. As Ryan stated, these are the types of players “stuck on the end of your bench who are not actually deserving of a roster spot.” In these cases, it’s an easy fix – open up a bottle of Drano and rid your team of any and all obstructions!
What about players whose roster candidacy isn’t so black and white? You know, the types of clogs that might loosen up and drift away on their own accord, requiring nothing more than time and patience. Instead of taking a hardline approach, these are the types of situations where we need to make like EL James and view them in shades of grey.
I’m referring to the players on our rosters who for various reasons are currently devalued, maybe even to the point of benching, but are not worthy of banishment to the waiver wire. It’s almost as if they exist in a state of “roster purgatory.” For whatever reason, these players just didn’t have the year(s) we were expecting, but they still carry value and name recognition. If we were to overzealously drop these guys, they wouldn’t stay unclaimed for long.
Since the off-season is officially upon us, roster evaluation and maintenance moves to the critical forefront of our dynasty ownership obligations. As such, this is an optimal time to consider those stuck in roster purgatory, and what we should do with them. In that spirit, this semi-regular column will analyze players with clouded futures, and attempt to clarify and valuate their future prospects. The series will continue with wide receiver Wes Welker.
Previous Installments
The Essentials
Age: 31 (will be 32 before the 2013 season)
Team: New England Patriots
Years in the NFL: Eight
Three-Year Statistical Arc
|
Year |
Games |
Targets |
TPG |
Receptions |
Catch % |
Yards |
YPG |
YPC |
TD’s |
PPR Rank |
|
2010 |
15 |
122 |
8.1 |
86 |
70.5 |
848 |
56.5 |
9.9 |
7 |
WR18 |
|
2011 |
16 |
172 |
10.8 |
122 |
70.9 |
1569 |
98.1 |
12.9 |
9 |
WR2 |
|
2012 |
16 |
174 |
10.9 |
118 |
67.8 |
1354 |
84.6 |
11.5 |
6 |
WR7 |
In a vacuum, compared to both prior and subsequent numbers, Welker’s 2010 season appeared pedestrian at best. However, the stats he compiled (including finishing as the #18 PPR wide receiver) were in spite of the fact he tore his ACL in the last regular season game of the 2009 season. Even with the short recovery time, Welker still finished with the seventh most receptions in the league and caught over 70% of his passes. It was clear, however, that the injury contributed to a decreased number of targets, as well as a sub-par yards per catch statistic.
In 2011 and 2012, Welker was back to doing what he does best – “hogging” targets like his name was Miss Piggy, racking up receptions, and finishing as a high-end WR1 in PPR leagues. In 2011, he led the league in receptions while finishing with the second-most targets, and followed that up with the second-most receptions and fourth-most targets in 2012. While Welker’s game wasn’t synonymous with that of a deep-threat, field-stretching receiver (#62 and #80 in terms of yards-per-catch in 2011 and 2012), his catch percentage was exemplary each year, especially considering the high volume of targets he received.
Reasons to Abandon Ship
1. The Elephant in the Room: As a guy with a fairly positive outlook on life, I’ve previously chosen to lead each of these analyses with five “Reasons to Keep the Faith.” However, in Welker’s case, the uncertainty surrounding his future trumps all else. I first touched upon his contract status in September, when I detailed the perils of playing under the franchise tag. With free agency just around the corner, it’s time to revisit just that.
Welker wants a big-money long-term contract, but the Patriots have been reluctant to offer him one. While he could very well be franchised again, or offered a short-term contract, New England arguably has more pressing priorities with cornerback Aqib Talib and offensive tackle Sebastian Vollmer. The restructuring of Tom Brady’s contract helps, but it’s still hard to say what may happen here. While there’s no telling where Welker might wind up should the Pats choose to let him walk, it would almost certainly represent a downgrade.
The Patriots have been an offensive juggernaut for several seasons running, ranking in the top five in the league in total offense five of the last six years. While Welker would surely prefer to play for a contender, there are no guarantees it will come to fruition. Simply put, the potential drop-off in catching passes from Brady versus most other quarterbacks in the league is the metaphorical difference of commuting to work in a helicopter, or riding a three-legged donkey.
2. Next Man Up: Unfortunately for several former New England players, the very real “Patriot Way” isn’t just coach Bill Belichick’s manifesto on wearing hoodies. You either buy into the system or you don’t, and this generally includes signing a team friendly contract. Tom Brady did just that by restructuring his deal yesterday.
Along those lines, Welker wouldn’t be the first Patriot superstar to be unceremoniously dismissed. Former players such as Randy Moss, Richard Seymour, Drew Bledsoe and Lawyer Milloy were either traded or released when it was deemed their cost or attitude outweighed their usefulness. Should this occur with Welker, the Pats believe they already have a capable in-house replacement in receiver Julian Edelman.
3. “Goodwill” Hunting: If it seems like I’m belaboring the point, it’s because of how important it is for Welker’s fantasy future that he remains in New England. However, living in the Boston area the past few years, the dwindling manner in which Welker is perceived by both the Patriots organization and the general population has been noticeable. The seminal play in Super Bowl XLVI wasn’t viewed as the “Brady Misfire,” it was the “Welker Drop.” Subsequent drops in the 2013 postseason didn’t go unnoticed, and were then followed up with a bizarre rant by his wife, Anna Burns Welker. Welker also experienced a peculiar early season benching by coordinator Josh McDaniels, recording only 14 receiving yards in week one, before injuries necessitated his presence in the game plan. Given the aforementioned “Patriot Way,” these are the types of things that could preclude Welker from being re-signed.
4. A Score to Settle: Welker has never exceeded nine touchdowns in a season, averaging only one score every 2.5 games (with the Patriots). Coupling this with his dependence on receptions in a PPR scoring system, it’s not surprising to see his value plummet in non-PPR leagues. Dating back to the 2007 season, Welker’s player rank has dropped anywhere from two to eleven spots going from PPR to non-PPR formats. More so than other receivers, Welker’s fantasy worth is definitively contingent on the league’s structure.
5. Golden Oldies: Though fellow players Andre Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith and Roddy White turned back the clock this year, receivers generally start to tail off when they hit 30 years of age. Only seven of the 39 (18%) 1,000-yard receivers over the past two years were over 30. Turning 32 in May, Welker’s diminishing shelf life curtails his dynasty value.
Reasons to Keep the Faith
1. Window of Opportunity: Though all of the reasons why the Patriots could move on from Welker have been detailed above, there’s one big reason for them to keep him: Tom Brady. While New England has exciting young playmakers in tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, their captain is no spring chicken. Turning 36 in August, Brady’s window for a fourth championship is slowly closing.
To capitalize on the efficacy of Brady’s swan song, the Patriots would be wise to retain his most consistent receiver. Since being signed in 2007 (and excluding Brady’s injury-shortened 2008 campaign), Welker has accounted for 29.6% of Brady’s completions, and received 27.2% of his passing yards. Brady also completes 72.4% of his passes to his favorite target, which represents an 8.7% upgrade (13.7% relative upgrade) on his career mark of 63.7%. Finally, the quarterback and his receiver are good friends both on and off the field, and Brady has publicly expressed his desire for his buddy to be re-signed and has helped out by restructuring his own contract.
2. Target Practice: As mentioned earlier, Welker has been a mainstay in the group of most-targeted players dating back to 2007, his first season with the Patriots. Excluding 2010, the year immediately following his ACL injury, Welker hasn’t been targeted fewer than 145 times in a season. It’s obvious that he knows how to get open, which shouldn’t change regardless of the uniform he wears.
3. The ‘Fin’s Chagrin: Bolstering the above point, Welker was performing at a (relatively) high rate even before his time with the Pats. In 2006, as a Miami Dolphin, Welker led the team in receptions with 67 (for 685 yards), once again catching passes at a high rate (67.7%). While those numbers don’t seem overly impressive at first glance, a few mitigating factors must be taken into account. First, it was only Welker’s third season (second as a position player) in the league. Next, and more important, the Dolphins’ “quarterbacks” were Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington. The pair combined for only 3,165 passing yards and only completed 58.2% of their passes. This lends credence to Welker’s ability to produce regardless of where he winds up playing (and also to the opinion that Miami never should have traded him).
4. Getting Over the Hump: While it’s true he could theoretically wind up anywhere (especially if a sign-and-trade is involved), one would have to imagine Welker wants to play for a contender and help push them over the top. He’s going to be 32 years old before the season begins and still has yet to achieve a Super Bowl championship. Moreover, he hasn’t played for a team with a losing record since signing with the Pats. It’s just hard to believe that Welker would choose to play out his twilight years on a failing team. It also defies logic for a young, rebuilding team to want to sign him. Even if Welker doesn’t re-sign in New England, it stands to reason he won’t wind up on a team with an offensive philosophy that cripples his production.
5. “Returning” the Favor: A smaller, though not insignificant, facet of Welker’s game is his ability to return punts. While he was a far more prominent return man in Miami (averages of 42 returns and 384 yards) than in New England, Welker still returned 25 punts for 243 yards last year. While far from game breaking, these potential fractions of points could push your team over the top in leagues with return yard bonuses.
Conclusion and Recommendation
Wes Welker’s contract predicament means his value is currently all over the board amongst dynasty owners. The level of contention of a team, as well as the daring of its owner, could and should lead to different strategies for how to approach the slot receiver.
So, what should you do?
The first distinction to make is whether your team has a realistic shot at a championship in the next few years. If the answer to that question is yes, Welker is a solid buy or hold (especially in PPR leagues), despite the uncertainty. If your team is considered to be rebuilding, then Welker has no business being on your roster.
Next, owners need to figure out the level of risk with which they’re comfortable operating. Bold owners with contending teams should attempt to buy low on Welker now, before free agency begins, and hope he winds up on a good offense – be it in New England or elsewhere. Conversely, intrepid owners with rebuilding squads should wait until after Welker signs, betting that he finds a soft landing spot and his trade value increases in the next few months.
For more reserved owners, the opposite holds true. Contenders will want to wait until after Welker signs a new contract, even if the comfort of knowing where he winds up comes with an increased price tag. Owners of rebuilding teams should sell now in the fear that Welker signs with a fantasy black hole like Jacksonville or Kansas City, torpedoing any value he has.
Regardless, Welker’s body of work over the course of his career suggests that even if he leaves New England, he won’t fall flat on his face in a new environment. He should still have, at a minimum, one to three more years of high-end fantasy relevance. However, much like his nickname of the “slot machine,” dealing with Welker’s clouded future is certainly a gamble!
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