Pulse of the Twitterverse

The wide receiver position has always intrigued me.  Year to year, there always seem to be a handful of players who break out or perform above and beyond what their ADP would have indicated.  This year, players like Randall Cobb and Michael Crabtree could be had for almost pennies on the dollar.  Other players such as Danario Alexander and Cecil Shorts could be found sitting on your league’s waiver wire much like, to a lesser extent,   Jordy Nelson and Victor Cruz in 2011.

It used to be the third year was where we dynasty folk would see vast returns on our investments from previous years, and that still can/may be true.  Lately, it’s been the wide receiver’s second year when they make the forward leap toward fantasy greatness – whether it’s the college/system they come from, the genes they possess, or the simple fact of just having the playing time, it’s something we need to seriously take note of.

The first couple of installments of “Pulse of the Twitterverse” were all encompassing – any and everyone were game to analyze and discuss.  I felt like this was, perhaps, too broad of a question.  I needed to liven things up a bit.

Since Twitter is where I get my material, I tweeted the following to the masses (or the few hundred followers I currently have):

“Want to discuss possible WR breakouts in 2013 in my next DLF article.  What are some of the popular names you’d want covered?”

Thankfully, I have just enough followers that I received an incredible response.  I broke them down into two categories – second year wide receivers and third year wide receivers…genius, I know.  For this first part, I’d like to discuss the third year receivers who I think will break out in 2013.  Next week, we’ll cover the second year crew.  Before we get started, I had many inquires about Brandon LaFell and Golden Tate.  Since the two will be heading into their fourth seasons, they did not qualify for this short series, but I did write about Tate here.

Last year saw a few third year wide receivers finally have their much anticipated breakouts.  Dez Bryant had a huge year and ended up finishing inside the top five for wide receivers.  Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas were both top seven producers while playing for the same team.  Unfortunately, they were all third, fourth, fifth, and sometimes sixth round start-up draft picks largely due to the fact they were big names coming out of college and Decker proved he could be fantasy relevant even with Tim Tebow throwing him the ball.

The third year players I would like to discuss don’t come with the fanfare or name recognition (well, maybe Joe Morgan, the baseball player).  I want to try and find you bargains on draft day or perhaps some steals during this off-season of dynasty trades.  With that said, here’s my list of third year wide receivers who could have breakouts in 2013:

Vincent Brown, WR SD

“New Chargers coach Mike McCoy has “high hopes” for third-year WR Vincent Brown, and has identified Brown as a “great route runner.”  (Rotoworld.com)

Heading into 2012, the San Diego Chargers were without a true number one receiver.  Vincent Jackson took his talents to Tampa Bay and Antonio Gates was on the downslope of his career.  There was no Danario Alexander yet; only Malcolm Floyd and Brown – the lion’s share of Philip Rivers’ targets were up for grabs.

Brown is going into his third season despite missing his entire Sophomore campaign due to a broken ankle.  He broke his left ankle during one of the team’s preseason games, in turn, breaking the hearts of those who touted him as the ultimate sleeper of 2012.  Early reports indicated Brown would be out approximately eight weeks, lending slight hope to those he was drafted or owned by.  But alas, his 2012 never got started and he was sent to the dreaded IR – the darkest of fantasy places, fantasy purgatory.

There’s much to like about Brown heading into 2013: San Diego has found a number one-type wide receiver in Alexander (which will help take pressure off of Brown); McCoy has proven he can make two receivers on the same team week to week fantasy contributors (see Thomas and Decker); he’s already received his new head coach’s stamp of approval as seen above; and he’s heading into his third year (tied that right in, eh?).  Brown is going to get his targets next season with or without a healthy Alexander.  Rivers is no stranger when it comes to forcing targets to his favorite receiver – only next year, he’ll have two favorites.  This could be a fun duo to watch in the next few years if both can stay on the field and Rivers’ arm doesn’t completely go limp.

Because there’s so much to like, dynasty owners have already began taking note.  Brown’s ADP has gone up significantly in just one month and it’s sure to stay on the rise as we get closer to training camp.  Check out his latest ADP from our DLF mock drafts.

The window to acquire Brown’s services is quickly closing, if it hasn’t already.  He’s been a hot name in the fantasy world for close to a year now and it’s still picking up steam.

Here’s what DLF Senior Writer, Steve Wyremski, had to say about Brown:

“Vincent Brown was set to take over as the go-to guy in San Diego in 2012 prior to his broken ankle. Despite Danario Alexander’s presence (assuming he’s retained as a RFA), Brown is a good bet to lead the Chargers in receiving in 2013. In particular, he’s a solid route runner with fantastic hands, which he exhibited in his rookie season. What I love is his ability to get open and the fact that Mike McCoy is already praising him. He’s still undervalued due to his broken ankle and because of that, I’m buying anywhere I can.”

Joseph Morgan, WR NO

I’ve had an almost un-natural love for Morgan after watching him against the San Francisco 49ers in the preseason.  I’m a fan of speed and underdogs- and this dude has/is  both.  If you haven’t seen Morgan play, look no further than this clip against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Morgan’s another player who is technically going into his second season because of missing his entire rookie year due to injury.  Morgan tore his meniscus during the 2011 preseason but left us with glimpses of future fantasy greatness.   His 4.4 speed (some reports have said he’s been clocked as low as 4.28) was put on display when he returned a punt for 78 yards against the San Francisco 49ers in the team’s first preseason game- making defenders miss, then blazing down the left sideline.  Morgan followed up that performance with a game against the Houston Texans where he caught one pass for a 56 yard touchdown before leaving the game with what later turned out to be the season-ending knee injury.

So, how can we get excited about a third year player who’s only caught a total of ten passes in two seasons?  For one, the 37.9 yards per reception – he would have averaged just over 40 YPR had it not been for his one catch, eight yard performance in week 17.  Morgan was targeted 19 times total this year with 14 of those targets going for over 20 yards.  He caught all eight of his catchable targets for 366 yards and three touchdowns.  Not to mention former deep threat Devery Henderson, who played 720 snaps (just 390 for Morgan), is an unrestricted free agent and will most likely be out of New Orleans with the emergence of Morgan.

We’re dealing with very small sample sizes here, but the data we have is encouraging.  Per PFF, he was ranked third overall (all % of snaps) in wide receiver rating at 137.6 and ranked #26 overall in yards per pass route at 2.08.

Lance Moore has told local media that he and Morgan will be working together this off-season on intermediate routes and he will, for the first time, have a full set of reps in training camp with Drew Brees, not Chase Daniel. 

Morgan will be the third wide receiver and possibly the fifth option (Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles) on a team that passes 2:1 versus the run so I can understand the trepidation for owners drafting/trading forMorgan.  His ADP has stayed very low and consistent according to DLF’s latest mock drafts, so people aren’t buying in…yet.

Ryan McDowell had this to say about Morgan:

“One of the most impressive statistical performances of the 2012 season went widely unnoticed by the average NFL fan and even the average fantasy player, but die hard dynasty owners are well aware of the Saints young wide receiver Joseph Morgan. On just 19 targets from quarterback Drew Brees, Morgan hauled in ten catches, three of those going for touchdowns. Even better was that on those ten grabs, Morgan averaged just under 38 yards per catch. The future is bright for Morgan, considering free agent Devery Henderson is likely to leave town, opening the door for more playing time in 2013.”

He can be had for extremely cheap and has huge upside in that offense.  Couple that with the fact Sean Payton will be back on the sidelines and you got yourself a cheap potential breakout.  Go get the Joe Morgan who didn’t play for The Big Red Machine.

Jon Baldwin, WR KC

Baldwin has been a huge disappointment to both the Kansas City Chiefs and the fantasy football community since being drafted in the first round in 2011.  The 6’4”, 230 pound wide receiver drew many comparisons to Brandon Marshall when he was drafted out of the University of Pittsburgh.  Instead, he has looked more like Mike Williams - not the good Mike Williams (Tampa Bay), the Detroit first rounder version of Mike Williams.

Baldwin was another popular sleeper because of the strong training camp and decent preseason he had last year.  However, unlike Brown, Baldwin’s season wasn’t derailed by an injury.

Some of the blame can be put on the teams’ shoddy quarterback play and some can go on the coaching staff, but at some point, Baldwin is going to have to get it or get out (of the league).  He has all the physical abilities you’d want in a receiver and then some.  He’s got the frame of a tight end with the legs of a gazelle (has been clocked as low as 4.39 in the 40), but hasn’t figured out how to be a professional NFL wide out yet – mostly in part to his mediocre route running and his lack of self-motivation.

Enter Andy Reid.

If anyone can help Baldwin figure things out in the NFL, it’s Reid.  He will improve the passing game, regardless of quarterback (Brady Quinn excluded), and will use Jamaal Charles a tad better than Romeo Crennel was able to, taking pressure off of <insert QB here>.  A significant key to Baldwin’s value will be whether or not the team is able to re-sign Dwayne Bowe.  Reid has already said re-signing Bowe will be their main focus this off-season and the two sides have been talking in hopes to get a deal done before free agency hits.  Having Bowe on his opposite side should help free him for single coverage on just about every play.

Looking at Baldwin’s season stats, nothing really impresses me except for his 16.3 YPR.  He was targeted 46 times all year and played only 559 snaps.  When he does catch the ball, he’s a load to bring down coming in as the #22 wide receiver in yards after catch with 5.6, so there’s that.

Despite what Reid is saying about the quarterbacks currently rostered by the Chiefs, they will have to either sign, draft, or trade for an upgrade there.  Alex Smith’s name has been mentioned as a possible target and reports surfaced late Saturday night that the Niners have agreed to a trade involving him.  We won’t know the specifics or to what team until free agency begins in March, but Smith would be an upgrade over Matt Cassel/Quinn and will add value to the entire offense.

Here’s what DLF’s Eric Hardter thinks about Baldwin:

“616.  That’s the number of passes attempted last year by the quarterbacks playing under coach Andy Reid (Michael Vick and Nick Foles).  If their play was merged, this would’ve ranked #6 in the league, and shows Reid’s preference for a passing offense.  Enter Jonathan Baldwin.  With the release of receiver Steve Breaston, as well as the potentiality of Dwayne Bowe leaving as well, the soon-to-be third year professional is walking into a positional vacuum.  He has the physical talent to succeed, but poor coaching, subpar quarterback play, and a seemingly nonchalant attitude have combined to hold him back.  With the first being addressed, and rumors that the second soon will be, the only thing holding Baldwin back is himself.  With increased focus and dedication, Baldwin can show why the Chiefs made him a first round pick in the 2011 draft.  I believe Reid can, and will, make this happen.  So despite lacking evidentiary affirmation from two years of box scores, I have faith that Baldwin will jump onto the fantasy radar in 2013.”

There’s been a steep drop off in ADP since the January mock drafts held by Ryan McDowell which I find interesting.  He’s being drafted two full rounds later in February than he was in January.

Again, this is someone who is very cheap right now that could pay huge dividends in the future.  Everything should be in place for Baldwin to have a breakout in 2013…now we just wait for the quarterback position to be filled, officially.

Make sure to check out next week’s “Pulse of the Twitterverse” when I discuss the second year wide receiver breakouts for 2013.

Follow me on Twitter @Chad_Scott13 and get your questions answered in a future article.