Dynasty Capsule: Green Bay Packers

Jacob Feldman

As part of the premium content package, we’re again unveiling dynasty capsules for every team in the NFL leading up to free agency and the NFL Draft. This year, we’re also going to do a follow-up on all the teams after all the free agency and NFL Draft movement to assess the impact of any players teams have gained or lost. Since these capsules are always done as a simple snapshot in time, we figured that was the best way to tackle the off-season and provide ultimate value for our subscribers. All in all, we’ll have close to 500 player profiles found in these capsules over the off-season.

Over the last few years the Green Bay Packers have had one of the best offenses in the league year in and year out. That means that a large portion of their players are on the fantasy radar and many of them are counted on as every week starters. Let’s take a little closer look at them.

Quarterbacks

Aaron Rodgers

aaron_rodgersThis team, both in terms of real life and fantasy relevance, is built around Rodgers. A perpetual top three finisher among quarterbacks in almost every league’s scoring system, Rodgers is one of the most sought after dynasty assets. The fact he will turn only 30 years old during the 2013 season just makes him that much more valuable. He is one of the few quarterbacks you can almost lock in for 4,000+ yards and 30+ touchdowns each season. Whenever the Packers decide to re-do his contract, he will undoubtedly become the highest paid player in football history.

Even Rodgers isn’t perfect, though. In today’s NFL, there is a reason to be concerned about exactly how long he will play the game. The knock on Rodgers before he took over as a starter was that there were questions about his health. In his three years as a backup, he didn’t play very much at all, and often when he did, he ended up getting injured – this includes breaking his foot in 2006. Since then he has suffered minor injuries to shoulders and knees, but the biggest concern are the concussions. He suffered two confirmed concussions during the 2010 season. Though there are several that think Rodgers has suffered several others like one after this hit as well as one in college in a game against USC. Many suspect Rodgers might have closer to four or five concussions during his career (counting college), instead of two. This is clearly a concern that he might end up with a concussion shortened career like Steve Young.

Graham Harrell

Harrell isn’t a very special talent. He probably isn’t even a backup quality quarterback. However, one thing that we have seen over the years is that the Green Bay system can make even below average quarterbacks look very good for a brief period. I’m looking at you, Matt Flynn. Should Rodgers sustain a major injury, it would be a major downgrade for all skill position players. If the Packers can do so cheaply, it wouldn’t surprise me if they brought in a veteran as insurance just in case.

Running Backs

DuJuan Harris

I wasn’t really sure which Packers’ running back should go first on the list since they had no fewer than seven different guys get time at the position this year. Harris just so happened to be the last one. There are some who are very high on Harris’ potential. However, I’m not really one of them. To me, Harris is a change of pace back and not much more. He doesn’t seem to have the long term trust of the Packers brass either.

To me, the first issue with him is his size. Depending on where you look from measurements at his pro day to major media websites, places list him from 5’7” to 5’9” and 197 to 208 pounds. Typically, when there are swings like that, players tend to be on the small end of the spectrum. He does look a little bit smaller to me as well. The second issue is his production. His three games as a starter he had 14 carries for 70 yards, 17 carries for 47 yards, and 11 carries for 53 yards – that’s 4.0 YPC with a long run of 18 yards. He also had nine catches for 81 yards. While that isn’t terrible, it isn’t at a level that I get excited about his prospects next year.

Even with Cedric Benson and Ryan Grant being free agents, I think Harris’ chances of being the lead back are pretty slim. He might be in the rotation and get 6-10 carries and a handful of catches per game, but that is the upside in my opinion. I think the Packers are most likely to sign a veteran to come in and lead the way.

James Starks

Two years ago, Starks was the hot name in the Green Bay backfield. He acted as the workhorse back on the way to the Packers’ Super Bowl victory. Many expected him to become a future RB1 or at least a RB2. However, that never came to fruition. Between injuries and the Packers using a committee approach, Starks never panned out. While he might continue to be a part of a committee, his chances of being a lead back are also pretty slim. He has a very long injury history and hasn’t been overly productive when he was given the chance.

Alex Green

Drafted in 2011, Green was supposed to be the speed compliment to Starks’ power, developing a one-two punch. This didn’t pan out exactly how the Packers had hoped though as Green tore his ACL early in the season. This past season he also struggled with injuries, missing a few games because of them. He definitely has some talent, especially in a change of pace role, but he hasn’t been able to put it together on the field.

Brandon Saine

Another 2011 rookie, Saine is more of a power back. He was signed to the roster to challenge Starks in the role of short yardage/between the tackles runner. He lost that battle and has seen very little playing time in his two years. Matters were made worse this year when he tore his ACL. He’s a long shot to see any kind of role on the team.

John Kuhn

In case you can’t tell, the Packers’ backfield is a mess. All of the backs have injury histories and limited productivity. Not only that, but on a very pass heavy team with a quarterback who isn’t afraid to run, there isn’t a whole lot of opportunity. The presence of hometown hero John Kuhn just makes that even worse. Kuhn, while technically a fullback, has some of the best hands of any back in the league. Not only that, he is one of the better goal line backs as well – that makes him the perfect touchdown vulture as well as a decent fall back for a passing down specialist. He isn’t worth a fantasy spot, but his presence just muddies the waters of the Green Bay backfield even more.

Wide Receivers

Randall Cobb

With Greg Jennings being a free agent and almost certainly on his way out of town, that means that the receiver group for the Packers is going to see a little bit of a transition. Cobb is one of the players who will benefit the most from this. Drafted in 2011 and at a very young age of turning 23 just before the season, Cobb is one of the more promising young receivers in the game today. He is a dynamic playmaker that fits into the Percy Harvin mold, meaning he can be used on returns, in the backfield, out of the slot and split out wide. He also fits the Harvin comparison when it comes to size. At 5’10” and around 190 pounds, size isn’t one of Cobb’s strengths.

What Cobb lacks in size, he more than makes up for with effort, speed and agility. His suddenness both in and out of cuts as well as when running in the open field make him one of the more dangerous players in the NFL. My only question mark with Cobb is consistency. In this offense, there are a lot of mouths to feed. Cobb isn’t quite to the point where he can beat teams that are scheming to take him out of the game. Rodgers just goes to one of the many other weapons when that happens.  There were times this year when he just disappeared from games. With that said, he is one of the premier young WRs in the league and could challenge for top ten position this year.

Jordy Nelson

After bursting onto the scene in 2011 with a top five fantasy finish in most leagues, largely due to his 15 touchdowns, Nelson was a very hot commodity. Unfortunately for many owners, they failed to realize that a lot of Nelson’s 2011 season was a product of everything going as perfectly as possible. His catch per target rate, touchdown per catch rate, and many other metrics were just simply unsustainable. I’m not saying that Nelson isn’t talented, because I think he is, he just isn’t elite.

Nelson has very good speed and agility for a receiver, especially one who is 6’3” and nearly 220 pounds. He runs crisp routes and has good hands. All together that makes for a talented receiver who can succeed in the league. I just don’t think he fits the mold of being a true number one option for an NFL team or a fantasy team for that matter. Coming off of a down year, partially due to missing four games with injury, he might be a receiver you can get at a discount. I think that he’ll bounce back to being at least a top 25 WR once again this season. He will turn 28 before the start of the year, and he is currently signed cheaply through the 2014 season – that means you can count on him having one of the best quarterbacks in one of the most pass happy offenses in the league getting him the ball.

James Jones

With Rodgers throwing the ball, you know that someone is going to get an awful lot of touchdowns. In 2011 it was Nelson, in 2012 that guy was James Jones. Much like Nelson’s 2011 season, Jones’ touchdown total for 2012, when he caught 14 of them, makes his season look a little bit better than it really was. Jones has always been a gifted with a very nice skill set, but he has also struggled with focus and determination. Between the drops and an inconsistent work ethic over the years, he hasn’t every blossomed into the receiver that many hoped that he would become when they drafted him.

As far as this season goes, I’m in the camp that thinks it was more to do with him being in the right place at the right time. Jones was the only one of the top five Packers receivers to actually be healthy for all 16 games, which I think played a part in some of his production. Even with being the only one that was healthy, he wasn’t the team leader in catches or yards. In fact, he was almost beat out by Nelson for second on the team when it comes to yards even though Jones played in four more games and had 15 more catches.

Some are predicting a big step up from his 64/756/14 line now that Jennings is moving on, but I’m predicting only a small increase in catches and yards while his touchdowns will most definitely come back down to single digits. Jennings was injured for a big part of the season, and guys normally don’t suddenly become studs in their sixth season. Turning 29 this Spring and entering the final year of his contract with the Packers, I don’t expect Jones to ever surpass his fantasy results from this past season.

Jarrett Boykin

With Jennings most likely leaving and Donald Driver retiring as one of the best Packer receivers ever, that leaves a lot of room for a few young guys to step up and see some playing time next year. While I expect the Packers to bring in a few more young guys, Boykin is one that is currently on roster that might get a chance to step up.

At 6’2” and 220 pounds, Boykin has the size to be an effective outside receiver. His main drawback (and the reason he went undrafted in 2012) is that he doesn’t have very good top end speed. He has nice hands, runs decent routes, but is just plain old slow by NFL standards. While that limits his upside, it won’t prevent him from getting onto the field in four or five wide receiver sets and acting as a possession receiver. His role will be one to watch in training camp.

Tight Ends

Jermichael Finley

Anytime you hear Finley’s name, one of two words probably instantly pop into your head: potential or disappointment. Both of them are very true. The 6’5”, 250 pound Finley will turn 26 this Spring, and we in the dynasty community have long been talking about how much potential he has. We also talk about how he has failed to capitalize on that potential.

With his size and speed, he could easily become one of the top five tight ends in the league. He has even flashed that talent many times as he takes over parts of games and defeats double coverage to make a catch. Unfortunately, he has also flash major lacks of focus, questionable hands, and a lackluster work ethic over the years.

Due a total of almost $8 million this season in the last year of a two year deal, it is fair to wonder if he will be brought back. While 61 catches for 667 yards definitely isn’t back for a tight end, it just isn’t up to the level that we or the Packers expect from him. Entering his sixth year in the league, it is tough to imagine a massive turn around for him. While I expect the Packers’ Tight Ends to be heavily involved in the passing game due to the receiver group getting a bit shallower, I’m not fully convinced that Finley will be the guy. He’s a gamble right now.

Andrew Quarless

If Finley isn’t going to be the guy, then the question is who will be – Quarless is one candidate. At 6’4” and over 250 pounds, he definitely has the size to fill the role. The question with him is how he has recovered after missing all of the 2012 season with an ACL plus tear in his knee that happened late in the 2011 season. If he still has his speed and burst, he could be the leading prospect on the list when it comes to the “if not Finley, then who?” game. He is signed cheaply through the 2013 season. Should he get any kind of contract extension, that might be a big sign that the Packers think he could be the guy.

Tom Crabtree

Crabtree saw more snaps than any other tight end on the roster not named Finley. The problem is that he almost never leaves the line of scrimmage. Used almost exclusively as a blocker, the 2013 restricted free agent is likely to be brought back in that role. Don’t expect him to do much more than that though, even if he did have a 72 yard touchdown late in the season. That one catch accounted for over a third of his yards on the season.

DJ Williams

A mid-round draft pick in 2011, many had high hopes that Williams would be the replacement for Finley. That hasn’t exactly worked out. Williams has struggled at the pro level since coming into the league, and he has only managed a total of 9 catches his first two seasons. To make matters worse, he was a healthy scratch on game days several times this season as the Packers chose to activate six receivers instead of a third tight end. Unless he suddenly figures it out this off-season, I think he is out of the race to replace Finley.

jacob feldman