Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by a new Member Corner author, Dan Meylor. We welcome Dan to the Member Corner and look forward to seeing more of his work in the future!
Last fall when you decided to draft that rookie in your dynasty league, did you trust the man who drafted him?
I’m not asking if you trusted yourself. I am asking if you trusted the NFL General Manager that selected the player months earlier in the 2012 NFL draft. I think it’s a valid question as the 2013 off-season starts and the draft nears.
I believe in minimizing risk with rookie draft picks in a dynasty league. In my opinion, the best way to minimize risk is to gather as much information as possible before the draft and make an educated decision based on that information. I have to be honest with you. I don’t have all of the information. I do not attend the combine. I don’t have access to a prospect’s college coaches to find out how good of a teammate he is. Once the player is selected by an NFL franchise, I can’t attend OTA’s throughout the summer and I certainly am not in the weight room or the team meetings to find out how committed players are. Again, I don’t have all of the information.
Right now, every GM and their staffs are spending countless hours gathering all of this information. They have the access, they talk to the coaches and they can sit in on the meetings. I am confident they will have all of the necessary information to make an informed decision when draft day comes. Because they’ve done all the research I can’t, I take General Managers into account when I am creating my draft day cheat sheet.
Now who are the ones that we should trust? And what are some of their strong areas?
Ted Thompson in Green Bay comes to mind first. Thompson is most likely the best GM in the league when it comes to picking wide receivers. The last four wide outs Thompson has drafted in the first three rounds are Randall Cobb (2011 – second round), Jordy Nelson (2008 – second), James Jones (2007 – third) and Greg Jennings (2006 –second). Jennings is expected to move on in free agency this off-season. If and when Thompson pulls the trigger on a receiver between rounds one and three in 2013, we should all take notice.
Over the past couple of years, nobody has drafted as consistently well overall as the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have made a super combination in the great Northwest – they have invested picks into the offensive line and defense over the past couple of seasons and are improving steadily. The Russell Wilson pick (in the third round) a year ago gives me the confidence to trust Carroll and Schneider as some of the top talent evaluators out there. If the Seahawks decide to add an outside threat to their offense in the 2013 draft, I am confident they will make the right choice and I will definitely consider that player in my fantasy draft.
Jerry Reece of the Giants is also exceptional when it comes to drafting. While he is known for drafting incredible pass rushers, he has also assembled an impressive list of position players. His list includes Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, Eli Manning and up-and-comer David Wilson. I have trusted Reece on multiple occasions in the past. He and Tom Coughlin know exactly what they want and do an excellent job of targeting that player and getting him in the draft. Coughlin is known for not trusting rookies, so it is important to be patient with players selected by Reece. It usually takes only a year for Reece’s draft picks to gain Coughlin’s trust. If you can make it through that first year, your patience will be well worth it.
Bill Belichick comes to mind as well. The Patriots don’t seem to waste picks in the first four rounds of drafts. In fact, just in the past three years Belichick has given us Shane Vereen (2011 – second round), Stevan Ridley (2011 – third), Rob Gronkowski (2010 – second) and Aaron Hernandez (2010 – fourth). All while mainly concerning themselves with building their defense. Since Scott Pioli left for Kansas City in 2009, the Patriots have been possibly the most consistent team when it comes to selecting fantasy talent. Last year, they didn’t select a position player until the seventh round. Keep a close eye on Belichick during this year’s draft. It looks like it may be time to strike early.
Falcon’s general manager Thomas Dimitroff has a strong history of bringing fantasy players talent through the draft. His first ever selection was Matt Ryan in the 2008 first round. He also made the bold move of trading multiple picks to get Julio Jones in the 2011 draft. He has only made four picks in the first round of NFL drafts. The other two were used on defensive players. The Falcons have the #30 pick in this year’s draft. If Dimitroff selects a tight end or running back, be sure to jot down the name.
If anybody has come close to Ted Thompson as far as drafting wide receivers, it’s Kevin Colbert of the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since getting the job in 2000, Colbert has selected seven wide outs in the first three rounds of drafts. They include Plaxico Burress (2000 – first round), Antwaan Randle El (2002 – second), Santonio Holmes (2006 – first), Mike Wallace (2009 – third) and Emmanuel Sanders (2010 – third). He also found Antonio Brown in the sixth round of the 2012 draft. While the bigger position player need for the Steelers this year might be running back, don’t be surprised if Colbert looks for a receiver in the early rounds. Wallace may leave in free agency and the Steelers may be looking for a compliment to Brown and Sanders.
There are a couple other GMs that are worth mentioning because they are very good at what they do including Ozzie Newsome of the Ravens and Mickey Loomis of the Saints – both of them can be trusted to make selections that can benefit fantasy owners.
I learned the lesson of keeping tabs on NFL GMs in 2001 when I was choosing between two rookie wide receivers that were very closely rated everywhere I looked. I selected the player I thought would have a better opportunity to play early in his career and who many experts thought would be a rising star, Quincy Morgan of the Cleveland Browns. The player I passed on… Reggie Wayne. The knock on Wayne coming out of the University of Miami was his speed. Many experts were concerned that his lack of quickness would cause big problems for him at the next level. I bought into it. It didn’t take long to recognize that I had made a costly mistake.
I remember when I realized how foolish it was to trust Browns director of football operations Dwight Clark over Bill Polian, who had a remarkable history of choosing offensive talent with the Bills, Panthers and Colts. Clark was forced to resign from his position just months after choosing Morgan. In Clark’s four years with the Browns they drafted thirty-two players and never drafted a pro-bowler. I asked myself why I trusted a decision maker with that kind of history. After making that mistake, I vowed to always consider the general manager of a team before selecting a player in my fantasy draft.
I am not trying to tell you that blindly following a general manager that is listed in this column is the way to make your dynasty draft selections. I am simply saying that I think it is something that deserves our attention.
Taking time to consider this has served me well in the past. In 2009 I selected LeSean McCoy over Beanie Wells. Many experts had Wells rated much higher than McCoy at the time. After all, Wells was selected by Arizona 22 picks before the Eagles took McCoy. Brian Westbrook was coming off of a fourteen touchdown season for the Eagles when they took McCoy, so the obvious choice by most would have been the highly touted Wells. But they were closely rated to me and I trusted Andy Reid to select a ball carrier way more than former Cardinals executive Rod Graves. Another example came in 2011 when I chose Randall Cobb over Jonathan Baldwin, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder and Ryan Williams – all of whom were rated much higher by most experts. I did it because I trust Ted Thompson way more than other GMs.
So when August approaches and you are about to make your dynasty draft selection, remember the player you are about to draft has already been drafted by an NFL GM. Then take a breath and ask yourself if you trust that GM. It may save you from selecting the next Quincy Morgan when you could have had the next Reggie Wayne.
Follow Dan on Twitter - @dmeylor22.
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Excellent
Good work.
I believe this goes for practice squads as well….ex brandon bostick in green bay
Good article. Something that’s pretty simple, but often gets forgotten.
What sites do you trust?
Ted Thompson started out as a scout. He still does an enormous amount of scouting as GM for the Packers.
As an example of what was talked about above, the Lions took Titus Young at 44 or so and Cobb was off the board almost twenty spots later – yet clearly Cobb is the player to own.
Besides Ted Thompson’s abilities, consider the roster – take a good look at any Packer rookie WRs/TEs in the next few years.
Rodgers is 28 and will be in his prime for another 5+ years. The average age of the OL is 24 years old. Sherrod and Bulaga should be healthy in 2013 and I expect the Packers to add a C/G or T to the team via the draft. James Jones is on his walk year in 2013 and Jordy Nelson in 2014, and the Packers don’t sign aging players to a 3rd contract. Jennings is likely gone this year. Ted Thompson will have to restock the pass catching cupboard. In deep leagues I’d add Jarrett Boykin immediately and try to acquire through the draft any pass catcher that gets drafted by the Packers. I would not be surprised to see Thompson take a TE and at least one or even two WRs in the 2013 draft and do that again in 2014. Don’t shy away if the pick is 2nd, 3rd, or later. TT knows WRs. If TT moves up to get a WR, absolutely target that guy.
Boykin was not drafted by the Packers. He was signed as a FA by Jacksonville, who then cut him. The Pack then picked him up.
At no point did I say JB was drafted, so I have no idea what you are talking about. Your comment must be directed to something you thought you read rather than to anything I actually wrote.
After being cut by the Jags (before he even practiced with them) he made the Packer roster, beating out PS players (Borel and Gurley) that the Packers had held onto by paying real money to (both had the chance to sign with teams near the end of the 2011 regular season), with MM and TT keeping six WRs for the first time in years. He was ahead of Driver by the end of the year. Against MN, on a fourth down in the 4th Q of a close game, he was Rodgers first read, a back shoulder pass in which he got the first down.
In two years the Packers may have only Cobb left out of the current WRs who got regular playing time in 2012. Hence the suggestion that in deep leagues Boykin be rostered. Boykin does not have burner speed but he runs great routes and doesn’t drop anything. He’s a classic WC possession receiver and in PPR leagues he may just be gold from the waiver wire.
Great article! I hate to be ‘that’ guy… but Antonio Brown was drafted in 2010
Great article!
This is great. I’ve been thinkn about gm analyses as it relates to dynasty for a while. (Mildly upset I wasn’t the only one, but deep down I knew I couldn’t be) This is a great place to start. Good work.
This must be taken with a grain of salt though. Ozzie Newsome took Kyle Boller, Yamon Figurs, and Mark Clayton. Scott Pioli didn’t exactly shine in KC and Bill Polian took Anthony Gonzalez, Donald Brown, and Jerry Hughes.
Yes, it’s important to know the GM but it ain’t exactly the be all end all either.
I appreciate your feedback Boomer. I must say that the logic in your examples is flawed.
While Newsome did make the selections you mentioned, Figurs was drafted in the third round and was mainly brought in to be a return specialist. Clayton was not special as a first round pick but he was serviceable. I will concede that the three Newsome picks were busts however.
I never mentioned anywhere in the article that I would trust Pioli. In fact, I mentioned that the Patriots have been more consistent since he left New England.
Gonzalez’s career was quite promising before being cut short by multiple injurys. I am writing this off memory but I believe each of the other two Polian picks you referenced were selected after Bill handed over the GM position and the entire draft to his son Chris, in 2009 I believe.
You can find a bad draft pick with any GM, I wanted to point out that some GM’s have a history of being more trustworthy.
Thanks for reading.
As a Patriots fan I trust Bill Belichick on most things but I am still wary of his ability to draft WRs. I remember having high hopes for Chad Jackson (2nd round), Brandon Tate (3rd round), and Taylor Price (3rd round) all to amount to nothing.
The best they’ve done in the Belichick era drafting a WR is Deion Branch and David Givens but neither has ever had a 1000 yard season or more than 6 TDs so that’s hardly a star. We’ll see how Edelman turns out.
TEs I’ll trust him, RBs he can be ok if he gives them a consistent role but I’m still scared to death of any WR they draft.
Belichick is better off without Pioli huh. For as good as 2010 was it only got to even par after the triple bogey that was 2009. 2011 wasn’t great by any means either. Don’t forget Belichick still can’t draft a CB to save his life and needs to take a LB in the top two rounds to pan out. WR’s he can’t develop either.
Also, you say Figurs was taken to handle kickoffs only. You’d think he woulda stuck in the league then. Don’t forget how sorry their WR’s were at that time. Newsome didn’t just say go return kicks and you’re fine. You wanna talk pure KR specialists go check out Willie Reid from the Steelers.
Our boy Ted Thompson (I’m a Packer fan) can’t judge RB to save his life. Alex Green is terrible and don’t forget he drafted Cory Rodgers who made it through about three days of training camp. Don’t forget Mike Neal, Brian Brohm, Justin Harrell, and Brandon Jackson either.
Point being it’s the coach WAY more than the GM. Go ask any Jamaal Charles owner how unavailable he is for trade with Andy Reid there now.
Nice article.. glad to see i’m not the only one who looks at drafting players this way. A lot of times, I do use NFL GM’s (skill level) as a tie breaker in my draft.
Although there are always exceptions (Calvin Johnson, Stafford, and M.Forte comes to mind).. but nice to see this.
Great article! I love the thought process and appreciate the personal experience to validate the lesson.
Nice article. Well thought out and well written. This is good info and could help differentiate between two players one has ranked close and in the same tier.
On a side note, Having Favre (Jennings, Jones) and Rodgers (Jones,Cobb,Nelson) at QB probably has a thing or two to do with helping wrs in that offense to be successful. T.Thompson does deserve some credit but man… he does stink at rb evaluations.
Teddy Thompson has had two Hall of Fame QB’s to build the Packers around. While I like him as a talent evaluator especially when it comes to finding solid NFL caliber wide receivers, I think he is a bit overrated. For every Aaron Rodgers, Clay Matthews, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb he has blown top picks on A.J. Hawk, Justin Harrell, Dereck Sherrod, Brian Brohm and Pat Lee. Also Thompson has struggled to find a decent running back since acquiring Ryan Grant from the Giants in 2007. The NFL is a quarterback driven league and having Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers makes good G.M.’s like Teddy “I got sizzle” Thompson look better than they probably are.