2013 IDP Breakouts, Sleepers, & Stashes: AFC East
Like the offensive side of the ball, it is equally important to identify potential value plays in IDP leagues. Last year, we broke this article down by conference and provided one player per team, but this year we’ll break it down by divisions and analyze multiple players per team. The discussion will focus on players to watch, target, and/or stash for each NFL team. Some of the listed players will only be immediately relevant for deeper leagues, while others are targets for all types of leagues.
Similar to last year, the discussion below will center around three types of players:
Breakout: Players primed for a breakout season who are currently undervalued in dynasty leagues. Simply put, they demand more attention than they are receiving. They represent players who are on the cusp of becoming dominant weekly options at their respective positions.
Sleeper: These players will vary in their level of sleeper status. Some will be long-term sleepers who may take a year or two to develop, while others are players who are older and presented with new roles that result in increased fantasy value that is currently downplayed by the masses.
Stash: Players who are not talked about much, but deserve to be placed at the end of benches due their talent or opportunity. Many of these guys will take a few years to emerge and become household fantasy names. These are targets for the deeper IDP leagues.
Buffalo Bills
Da’Norris Searcy, SS (Sleeper)
With George Wilson recently released, Searcy slides into the starting strong safety spot for the Bills. In 2012, the former fourth-round pick played roughly 30% of the Bills’ snaps, which led many to speculate that the Bills were grooming the young safety to assume Wilson’s role in the near term. That looks to be pretty accurate in hindsight. Searcy should fit well in Coach Mike Pettine’s aggressive scheme, as he’s big, fast and an aggressive tackler. Searcy should be spending a lot of time in the box, which will also mean increased tackle opportunities and fantasy production in 2013.
Nigel Bradham, ILB/SLB (Stash)
Like Searcy, Bradham benefits from the release of an older player, Nick Barnett. With the departure of Barnett, there is an open spot next to Kelvin Sheppard in what looks to be increased 3-4 packages under Coach Mike Pettine’s hybrid scheme. Bradham started the final 11 games of 2012 playing the strongside of the Bills 4-3 defense and played well down the stretch. His snaps were limited in 2012 as he was relegated to a two-down role, but unlike Sheppard, Bradham is known for his speed, athleticism, and pass coverage ability. On the flip side, Sheppard is a liability in coverage. That may lead to increased snaps for Bradham with Barnett gone as someone is going to have to fill the every down role. Given Bradham’s athletic ability, he may see opportunities over Sheppard in pass coverage even if the Bills add a linebacker in free agency or the draft, as expected. Bradham’s natural athleticism gives him an edge over Sheppard in sub-packages.
New York Jets
Demario Davis, ILB (Sleeper)
With Bart Scott released, Davis is situated to start at inside linebacker next to David Harris in 2013. His upside will be limited with Harris leading the defense in tackles as the two will directly compete for opportunities, however, Davis still projects to be a solid producer. There was a period in Davis’s rookie season where he started three games while Bart Scott injured, but that was only temporary as Scott regained the starting spot soon after. It would have been nice to see more of Davis in 2012 given the Jets overall struggles, but the young linebacker plays aggressive and angry, which should directly translate to tackles. With his aggressive mentality, Davis is exactly the type of guy Rex Ryan likes flying around on his defense. Expect him to be IDP relevant for the foreseeable future beginning in 2013.
Jaiquawn Jarrett, SS (Stash)
Many will pass by this one immediately given the IDP attention he’s received in the past. However, the Jets recently signed Jarrett to futures contract and there is a reason to be cautiously optimistic. With the Jets disastrous cap situation, another player released was Eric Smith. Additionally, both LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell will not be able to be re-signed – that will leave an open spot at one of the safety positions. As a result, Jarrett may be presented with a shot at redemption after fizzling in Philadelphia following a second round selection in 2011. He has the potential to be a starter for the Jets in 2013 given their cap issues and inability to sign quality players as a result. New general manager John Idzik already said he’s planning to give free agents a shot to see if they’ll stick as starters. That’s a good and bad thing. A revolving door for the Jets is probable, but that also means guys like Jarrett will get an opportunity for significant snaps. Given his early career expectations, Jarrett is worth a stash in deeper leagues in hopes he’s able to improve on his coverage skills.
Kenrick Ellis, DT (Stash)
He sprained his MCL, missed a handful of games, and only amassed 11 tackles in 2012 playing 30% of the team’s snaps, but Ellis may find himself as the starting nose tackle in 2013. Current starter Sione Pouha is a potential release candidate to create cap room. That’ll leave Ellis as the sole replacement. While 3-4 nose tackles aren’t typically dynamite fantasy options, Ellis is worth a stash in deeper defensive tackle required leagues given the opportunity he’s likely to receive.
Miami Dolphins
Josh Kaddu, OLB (Stash)
Coach Joe Philbin recently said one player he’s excited for in 2013 is Kaddu. The second year outside linebacker is athletic enough to compete, but he didn’t see much playing time in his rookie year. His best shot in 2013 is to unseat Koa Misi at strongside linebacker. Unfortunately, that position and the presence of Kevin Burnett and Karlos Dansby as every down linebackers limit his immediate fantasy upside. Despite that, if he ends up beating out Misi, he’ll worth a roster spot in deeper leagues. From a longer term perspective, keep in mind that while Dansby and Burnett are signed through 2014, they’re both making a decent amount of money and are thirty years-old plus. Given where the Dolphins are in their stage of development, it wouldn’t be a shock to see some re-alignment on defense and continued building for the future over the next two seasons.
Olivier Vernon, DE (Sleeper)
Vernon possesses significant upside given his natural pass rushing ability. He was raw coming out of Miami and everyone knew he’d need time to develop his pass rush moves. That aside, he still exhibited improvement and ability in 2012 under the tutelage of Cameron Wake. Vernon should be rostered in all leagues given his sack potential, speed, and the pass rushing skills exhibited in 2012 with 11 quarterback hurries, seven hits, and three sacks on 39% of the team’s snaps. A second off-season learning from Wake should leave Vernon primed for increased snaps and a solid second season.
New England Patriots
Tavon Wilson, FS/SS, (Stash)
With a decent rookie season, Wilson remains a stash in deeper leagues. In his rookie year, he was part of a three-man rotation at safety totaling 28 tackles, two fumble recoveries and four interceptions. He played a large percentage of snaps early in the year, but after being subject to some big-plays, his snaps were scaled back. Overall, Wilson has exhibited the ability to make plays (i.e., picks / fumble recoveries) and shown a nose for the ball when seeing snaps. He’ll again compete with Steve Gregory for snaps in 2013. While the 30-year old safety played adequately in 2012, it was largely due to the struggles of Patrick Chung that he saw the playing time he did. Gregory’s not a special player or a long-term New England starter, so Wilson will get his opportunity. Wilson needs to improve in deep pass coverage and eliminate the big-plays, but he is likely to be a starter at some point in the next two years. He should be stashed in deeper leagues and watched in shallower leagues.
Dont’a Hightower, SLB (Sleeper)
Hightower played on the strongside and was limited to a two-down role in 2012, but the rookie made his presence known when on the field. He got to the quarterback (eight hurries, six hits and four sacks) and was active to the ball. The 22 year-old was held back in passing situations in favor of Brandon Spikes, but with Spikes set to be a free agent in 2014 and Hightower in his second season, expect him to be assimilated in sub-packages and play increased snaps – that will mean more tackle opportunities. Most importantly and from a long-term perspective, in 2014 Hightower is highly likely to be Patriots middle linebacker with Spikes probable to leave town. That will be a huge spike in Hightower’s IDP value and make him a prime breakout candidate in 2014.
