Dynasty Target: Chris Ivory

Steve Wyremski

chris_ivoryWhen dynasty owners pontificate about potential free agent running backs to target, Chris Ivory’s name is mentioned and quickly dismissed as he’s labeled a restricted free agent (“RFA”). It appears the presumption is that he’s a RFA, so the Saints will re-sign him and he’ll continue to be irrelevant for fantasy purposes as the Saints’ fourth string running back.

That was the overwhelming view until recently when the Cincinnati Enquirer mentioned Ivory as a possible free agency target of the Bengals. That published statement caught my attention despite my initial reaction, similar to many others, to assume it was speculation and dismiss it. It seems like we always see statements like this prior to free agency on an annual basis. Ultimately, it’s infrequent that a meaningful RFA signs with a new team given the draft pick cost required by most tender offers. I decided to do some more digging to see if there was anything worthwhile behind the comment.

Since Ivory’s currently buried on the Saints’ depth chart, many consider him a throw in, waiver wire fodder, or an end of the roster type of player depending on league depth. After looking into his current contract situation and his career production to date, there appears to be a current value opportunity with the 25 year-old running back.

Contract Situation Background

As mentioned, the Cincinnati Enquirer recently suggested that Ivory will sign elsewhere in 2013. After looking into it further, given the Saints’ salary cap situation (over the cap by ~$13 million) and Ivory’s tender offer options, that appears to be accurate.

In detail, under the current collective bargaining agreement RFA rules, the 2013 RFA tender guidelines are as follows:

Level 1: $1,323,000 (ROFR, Right of First Refusal))

Level 2: $1,323,000 or 110% of 2012 salary (Original Round Pick)

Level 3: $2,023,088 or 110% of 2012 salary (Second Round Pick)

Level 4: $2,878,628 or 110% of 2012 salary (First Round Pick)

In 2012, Ivory made $540K. Since 110% of that is less than any of the options above, we can ignore that consideration and focus on the stated amounts. As a result, the Saints options are to tender him as follows:

1)      At the lowest level for $1.3 million and receive option to match any market offer of any team.

2)      At the second highest option for the same $1.3 million and receive a draft pick in the same round that Ivory was drafted if signed by another team. Since he was an undrafted free agent, the Saints wouldn’t receive anything under this option. Therefore, it’s unlikely the Saints would use it.

3)      With a second round pick and $2 million salary. The popular belief here is that no team would touch Ivory if tendered at this level as they’d be unwilling to give up a second round pick for him. In other words, if the Saints tender Ivory with a second round pick, the probable scenario is that they retain him at $2 million.

Contract Situation Analysis

The Saints’ backfield is log-jammed and Ivory has been frustrated with that over the past two years with limited touches behind Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram. As a result, he’d likely be unwilling to re-sign with the Saints if it were left to him. Unfortunately for Ivory, he’ll remain with New Orleans if he’s forced to under the RFA tender rules.

As noted above, the view is if Ivory is tendered at level 3 (second round pick), the Saints are likely to retain him. However, given the team’s current cap situation, the likelihood they select this option is minimal. If they do select this tender option, they’d be signing a fourth string running back to a $2 million contract – that doesn’t seem to make sense considering they already have $6 million tied up in their running backs in 2013 ($2.9 million for Sproles, $2.1 million for Thomas, and $1 million for Ingram).

In addition, in an effort to improve the Saints’ cap situation, Curtis Lofton recently agreed to restructure his contract and others such as Will Smith are expected to be asked to restructure, as well. To sign a fourth string running back for $2 million for limited touches when top players are restructuring contracts appears to be contradictory, as well as, a horrible business decision given the team’s current cap situation.

Additionally, if the Saints really want to add depth at running back, they could always sign a free agent to a cheaper contract or draft a running back in the mid rounds to create additional cap flexibility. The Saints will need that additional money to attract defensive talent in completing their 2013 scheme change as they transition from a 4-3 base to a 3-4 base scheme.

Therefore, a level 1 tender ($1.3 million) and a right of first refusal seems the most likely path for the Saints. With the limited space they have and the need to bring in defensive talent, it’s unlikely the Saints will able to match any open market offer for Ivory. As a result, expect Ivory to be tendered as a level 1 RFA and sign elsewhere in 2013.

Career Production

The probable increased opportunity for Ivory should yield fantasy production and near-term value given his performance through his career thus far.

Many forget Ivory was a popular dynasty target after the 2010 season when he rushed for over 700 yards on 137 carries through 11 games. Prior to the 2011 draft and free agency, the belief was Ivory and Pierre Thomas would split running back duties going forward. Of course, that quickly ended when Sproles was signed as a free agent and Ingram was drafted in the first round – that sealed Ivory’s opportunity and limited him to his current fourth string duties.

Despite the limited role, Ivory’s production and short stints as starter exhibit the production we yearn for in dynasty. Here is his three year career broken down by year:

Year

GS

Att

Yards

Avg

Yards After Contact

YAC/

Att

LG

TD

Broken Tackles

Fum

Att/BT

2012

2

40

217

5.4

189

4.7

56

2

12

0

3.3

2011

2

101

444

4.4

278

2.8

35

1

14

0

7.2

2010

4

137

718

5.2

455

3.3

55

5

31

4

4.4

Total

8

278

1379

5.0

922

3.3

56

8

57

4

4.9

From the above breakdown, there are a few things that stand out:

  • Ivory breaks tackles like a machine
  • Ivory makes his mark after initial contact (67% of his career yardage)
  • Between his broken tackles, yards after contact and long runs (multiple 20 yards plus), Ivory can be classified as a playmaker
  • Ivory’s career average is 5.0 yards per carry
  • Fumbles were an issue in 2010

With how impressive Ivory’s broken tackle rate and yards after contact appear in isolation, here is how they compare to the 2012 top ten running backs from both a total points and average points per game perspective:

Player

Att/MT

YAC/Attempt

Darren Sproles

6.0

1.9

Trent Richardson

6.7

2.1

Arian Foster

12.1

2.2

Jamaal Charles

15.8

2.2

Maurice Jones-Drew

7.2

2.3

Matt Forte

11.3

2.4

Ray Rice

12.9

2.4

Lesean McCoy

5.1

2.5

Frank Gore

8.6

2.6

Marshawn Lynch

5.4

2.8

Alfred Morris

5.9

3.0

Doug Martin

6.0

3.2

Chris Ivory

4.9

3.3

C.J. Spiller

3.9

3.6

Adrian Peterson

5.4

3.9

Based on the above, here is how Ivory stacks up:

  • Ivory ranks second in attempts per missed tackle behind CJ Spiller
  • Ivory ranks third in yards after contact per attempt behind Spiller and Adrian Peterson

The injury history and 2010 fumbling issues are clear and a potential concern, but his production stacks up against the best fantasy running backs over the last year – that’s impressive for a player who’s not often considered as a 2013 off-season target.

Summary

Ivory is likely to be playing for another team in 2013 given the Saints’ current salary cap struggles and his contract situation. Couple that with his production to date and you have a dynasty asset with value that is set to catapult.

At worst, Ivory is a RBBC back in 2013 that possesses lead back potential. With a current ranking and ADP around RB50+, that’s a small price to pay for significant upside.

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Note: Ivory’s career statistics sourced from Pro Football Focus

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