The 2012 fantasy football off-season has begun. You have to pay close attention to everything in order to stay on top of your dynasty league. For most of us, we do well to steal some time away from our families and jobs to watch the games on Sunday. It becomes difficult to monitor the daily happenings around the league and even more demanding to process how that news affects your dynasty team.
That’s why we’re here!
Now that we’ve entered the off-season, the next few months will be filled with rumors. Much of the “news” will be speculation about the futures of individual players. While this can be important, it can also be a challenge to determine the validity of certain reports. I will included many of these reports and share my opinion about how the player’s value might be affected, for better or worse.
Here is a quick look at the events of the past week and how they impact the players on your team:
Marcus Lattimore, RB FA
With the NFL Rookie Combine underway, all of the attention of fans, coaches and ownership is firmly focused on Indianapolis and this year’s crop of incoming talent. One of the players that dynasty owners are most interested in will not be showcasing his skills this weekend. Marcus Lattimore, the running back from South Carolina, is still recovering from his horrific knee injury. There has been some good news recently, though. Famed surgeon Dr. James Andrews was recently quoted as saying that Lattimore would “shock the world” and Lattimore himself thinks he will be able to play in 2013. Lattimore will currently cost you a top 100 pick in startup drafts, but if these positive reports continue, expect his ADP to climb up the board.
Titus Young, WR FA
The strange story of Titus Young got even stranger this week when the St. Louis Rams waived him. He lasted only a few days with the team and he passed through waivers unclaimed. It is doubtful any team will be willing to give Young a shot anytime soon. His behavior on the field and his poor choice of words on Twitter has likely cost himself a chance at playing in 2013. Young’s value is tough to gauge. While it seems that most are ready to give up on him, I have yet to see him dropped in the many leagues I am involved with. At this point, I would hold Young in most leagues, as he has no trade value.
Steve Breaston, WR FA
The Kansas City Chiefs released wide receiver Steve Breaston, along with tight end Kevin Boss this week. Although Breaston had four consecutive seasons with over 700 receiving yards entering last season, he landed in head coach Romeo Crennel’s doghouse and had only 74 yards on the season in 2012. While Breaston has already garnered interested from the Pittsburgh Steelers, he has no dynasty value.
Mike Wallace, WR FA
It has been widely assumed for nearly a year that wide receiver Mike Wallace would not return to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Wallace held out last season before finally returning to the team on a one year deal, but there seemed to be bad blood throughout the season. Another known fact related to this off-season is the Miami Dolphins desire to add a top wide receiver. Now, reports are that these two will meet up as the Dolphins consider Wallace their top target in free agency this off-season. He is expected to demand a deal in excess of the $12 million per season that Tampa Bay gave Vincent Jackson a year ago. Wallace’s value will likely increase with a fresh start on a new team and he makes a good buy based on his current value. In startup drafts, Wallace is routinely lasting until the late fourth, or early fifth round.
Alex Smith, QB SF
Although he would like to be released, ESPN’s Chris Mortenson reports the San Francisco 49ers are unlikely to release former starting quarterback Alex Smith. Instead, the team will continue to pursue a trade. Many teams are in need of an upgrade at the position and have already been linked to Smith. The 49ers stance that they will either trade him or keep him seems like a bluff to increase Smith’s trade value. Although the chances are good that Smith lands a starting job for a new team, which would have little effect on his dynasty value. He has shown he can win games for his NFL team, but is not a difference maker for fantasy owners.
Nate Burleson, WR DET
Wide receiver Nate Burleson has agreed to restructure his contract, meaning his roster spot for the 2013 season is likely safe. Burleson suffered a broken leg early in the 2012 season and many assumed that could spell the end of his career in Detroit. Since the injury though, wide receiver Titus Young went off the deep end and was cut and Ryan Broyles suffered his own season ending injury. The once deep Lions are now somewhat weak at wide receiver and the veteran presence of Burleson helped his cause. Burleson still has very little dynasty value and is not a good option for fantasy production.
Jared Cook, TE TEN
Reports this week suggest the Tennessee Titans will use their franchise tag designation on tight end Jared Cook, although both sides still hope to come to an agreement on a long term deal. One delay on that possible contract came with the disagreement on Cook’s position. He is, of course, listed as a tight end and the Titans want to pay him as such. Cook and his representatives though, argue that he lined up as a wide receiver on over 60% of his snaps. Other players have made the same argument in the past and never seem to be able to convince the ownership. Staying in Tennessee has little affect on Cook’s dynasty value, but does dampen the Taylor Thompson parade that many owners (myself included) had been enjoying. A pass offense like the Titans will do well to support Cook, along with wide receivers Kenny Britt and Kendall Wright. There is little hope for substantial production from a second tight end.
Nick Foles, QB PHI
With the recent re-signing of quarterback Michael Vick and the acquisition of Dennis Dixon (who played the position for new Eagles head coach Chip Kelly while he was at Oregon), the trade winds are blowing for Nick Foles. Foles struggled as the starter in his rookie season with Philadelphia, but that is somewhat understandable behind that offensive line and playing for a team that many felt gave up on the season. ESPN’s Chris Mortenson feels that Foles could be dealt for a third round pick if the Eagles can find a trade partner. Judging by our off-season dynasty mock drafts, Foles has very little value. In fact, in the majority of the drafts (which are twenty rounds each), Foles has not even been drafted. He makes a decent flier in deep leagues, based on his current cost.
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Where does Lattimore fit into dynasty Rookie drafts? Before his injury, he was a pretty clear #1. Since then, I’ve seen projections all over the board in the first round. Since many think this is a relatively weak draft class, is it worth taking a shot on this guy in the top 5 picks? If he falls too much further, someone could be getting a steal if he can bounce back from this injury.
Basically I have the exact same question. I have the 1.03 and I’m basically clicking every link with “Lattimore” in it looking to justify taking him there…
Justification for you won’t come – you’re going to have to feel it in your gut this time. His value will undoubtedly rise in the next couple of months as reports come in of his miraculous recovery (true or untrue)
I’m of the mindset that he’d go somewhere around pick 1.06-1.08 right now, but he’ll go in the top five later in the Summer.
If you have a decent team (unlikely with 1.03), there will obviously be no better risk/reward pick than Lattimore.
I wouldn’t be ashamed to use a pick in the top five to get him, but I am more concerned about him not looking like the player he was BEFORE the last injury. He a long road ahead of him.
I also have the 3 as well as 10 if he is there at 3 I will take him as I am on a two year plan anyway and he clearly is biggest upside out of any of the backs…my guess is Lacy and Giovani go first in my draft and i will have to choose between Ball and Lattimore, it’s lattimore for me there….I just hope I can pick up the Cal WR at 10 which believe it or not is possible as my league is RB crazy and first 8-9 picks could be RB’s even in this draft
Don’t forget a lot of teams trade for picks. I have the 1.04 and 1.08 but won my championship last year
I would love for Lattimore to fall to 1.08. Not seeing it happening though. Yet I can’t justify drafting him over Lacy/Bernard/Patterson/Allen at 1.04 either. So I am stuck, I value him right around 1.06 or so, before the draft, but don’t have that pick.
In a PPR league, there is no way that I could justify taking him before 1.06 at this point in time. There are just too many good WR to pass up. The issue is that he’ll probably go pretty early to someone based just on name recognition and media hype if he gets drafted on day 1 or 2 in the NFL. He’s the wildcard of this draft.
I have the 1.1 in a 16 team league we started last yr. I hoping to grab Lacy or Benard w 1.1, and plan to take Lattimore w my 2nd. So I hope he doesnt shock the world. Since I snatched Mathews, Mendenhall, D.Wilson, L.Miller, B.Powell, K.Hunter last year, after i add the 1.1 and hhopefully Lattimore, I’ll have a seroius backfield by 2014!!
Have Dez, Cobb, Alezander, and Britt as Wr’s, it was very hard to get that 1.1 last year, but thanks to some helpful and timely injuries, I did, and now the rest will be history!
Lattimore won’t last to the 2.01 even in a 12 team league.
If he goes in the 3rd or 4th round of the NFL Draft, that will only reinforce the idea that his recovery is coming along well. And let’s be honest, our decisions are based on what the team doctors report. I am a firm believer in drafting for the future, above all else. For me, sacrificing instant gratification if your guy projects the highest in the future is the way to go. I own the 1.03 in one league. If Patterson and Allen are off the board, I wouldn’t hesitate to take Lattimore if he is selected in the first 4 rounds. While it is never a good idea to compare injuries of different players, the precedent is there for a RB returning from a knee injury as devastating as Lattimore’s. The mere possibility that he could carve out a career like Gore (or McGahee, to a lesser degree) makes the risk worthwhile.
Will one of you from DLF be doing this type of article based on the 2013 WR rookie class?
Thanks
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2012/wide-receiver-measurements
It’s on the calendar…
Yep, that’s me. Need to let the combine play out first though. Then it takes a little bit to do all of the calculations, write the article, and then give some time for editing. It, along with the RB counter part, will be out sometime in early to mid-March if I had to guess right now.
Just a heads up, the scoring system might get tweaked a little bit to get more specific and to better differentiate between things like good, great, and elite.
Whoops. Hit thumbs down by mistake. I loved this article last year. Prob my favorite of the off season!
You’re fired! =)
Thanks for mentioning the rain on the Taylor Thompson parade. I was one of the ones driving that hype train, but then again, it takes TEs awhile to develop. I’m not dropping him, but it dampens the mood as I was hoping(praying maybe) he would be ready to have a bigger receiving role in 2013, doesn’t look like that’ll be the case. I’ll still exercise patience, see how he looks in pre-season, and roster space willing I’ll hold him until at least 2014 to see if Cook is re-signed, or they draft a high TE at which case I can drop him.
That’s exactly where I’m at with him Chris. I am holding him for now, and hopefully throughout the season, but that might prove to be difficult.
Lattimore had a total knee dislocation on the right side. Recovery is difficult and uncertain. All players will have a drop in performance to some degree, according to current studies, and multiple studies show 33% will be unable to return to sports at their previous level of performance. 21% won’t return at all. Lattimore seems like a good kid, is young and appears to be dedicated to his rehab. Those are huge factors. I expect he will return to play, but how good he will be remains to be seen. Plus, he is still dealing with his ACL reconstruction on the left knee. I would take a chance on him in round 2 of a rookie draft, but I’m sure he will probably go in the first round of rookie drafts. We’ll see where he lands in the NFL drafts, as that should be telling.
Where is the combine article like last year’s with the times and stock rising? That is what got me into this website it helped me draft some nice late round rookies like Hilton and i took Miller over Hillman because of the good info i got from that piece
We’ve had the blog going this weekend here:
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/combine-blog-223-update
We’ll also have more in the coming days in regards to the results of the combine.