Pulse of the Twitter Versus

Twitter has been an amazing tool for fantasy sports enthusiasts.  It’s paramount when getting information quicker than your competition and is the only place in town where you can go from talking fantasy football to talking about “Saved By The Bell” within four tweets.  Twitter is also where I found my love for writing.  I would have never started this unique journey had it not been for Twitter – so blame them when you read my work.

I recently posed the following question to my Twitter followers: “Who are your biggest concerns going into the 2013 fantasy football season?” I’ve never asked questions like that on Twitter, but thought why not? The results varied and responses were all across the board.  As I previously stated, Twitter is such an invaluable tool, especially for fantasy sports, that it seems like I should be asking these types of questions more frequently.

That got me thinking.

For this series, I decided to take some of the most popular questions floating around Twitter and post my own viewpoints on them here on DLF.  Remember, if you have specific questions, Tim Stafford answers all the mailbag questions for DLF and he’s an excellent source for information that can help you in your decision making this “off-season.” We also have our new “Dynasty Doctor” for you to submit any questions in regards to medical science.

There’s always something to discuss when it comes to the NFL and dynasty- and today is no exception. I was perusing the tweet box the other day and saw this little nugget of information:

@ProFootballTalk: “As Steven Jackson weighs his options, he hasn’t met with the Rams.”

Like a moth to a flame, many fantasy pundits on Twitter jumped on the fact it was now Daryl Richardson’s time to shine in the ‘Lou (and yes, most of my material comes from people on Twitter).  But what if it isn’t?  What if it never was?

There was much debate over who was going to do what with many “LOLs” and hashtags aplenty.  But have we forgotten someone?  Perhaps an integral cog in the Jeff Fisher machine- both present and future?

Enter Isaiah Pead, or @iPead, which is how I refer to him and his genius Twitter handle.

Why are people so quick to jump on the Richardson hype train?  Was he really THAT impressive in 2012?  Was Pead’s usage a tale of what to expect in 2013 and beyond?  Even though there has been no official word that Jackson will not be back with the Rams next year, let’s speculate, shall we…

First, let’s get a tale of the tape.  How do the two compare physically before entering the Twitter Versus ring?

As my friend, Allen Bassett @Allen_Bassett), pointed out to me on the Twitter:

“Pead only played 42 snaps all year, DRich 314.”

Seems like damning evidence against a case to make a play at Pead instead, no?  Richardson, when given the chance, played more than admirably.  He was quick and decisive when hitting the holes and made a habit of making big plays when getting to the outside. Richardson ended the season rushing the ball 98 times for 475 yards (4.7 YPC) while adding 24 receptions for 163 yards, however, he did not score a touchdown.  Fisher even trusted ‘Drich’ over Pead on passing downs despite ranking 155 out of 174 qualifying running backs in pass blocking efficiency.  On the 35 pass plays Richardson was blocking on, he gave up a total of just six pressures on the quarterback – good (bad) for an 86.4 rating.

Pead, on the other hand, was never welcomed into Fisher’s circle of trust despite being drafted in the second round, #50 overall.  The popular preseason sleeper ran the ball just ten times for 54 yards and was never able to take the backup job from his fellow rookie – largely in part to his pass protection woes.

I watched every run Richardson had this season, thanks to my wife buying me NFL Game Rewind for Valentine’s Day (she doesn’t know she bought it for me yet).  He was impressive – the speed and vision anyways.  But I noticed he wasn’t able to make tacklers miss very often or at all- if the play wasn’t perfectly blocked, he’d go down on first contact.  He was ranked at #59 out of all running backs with an elusive rating of 34.1 – to put that into perspective, Michael Turner was ranked #44 at 38.5 and Donald Brown #56 at 34.8…yes, that Donald Brown.

This is what our own Andy Miley had to say about Richardson:

“Here is what I saw from Richardson against the Bucs – ever since the resurging Steven Jackson came back healthy, the Rams have used the speedy young running back sparingly. He showed good lateral movement and was quite patient on his carries, maybe too much so. His five carries for nine yards was very pedestrian, but Tampa has a strong run defense. Richardson’s slight size and power was clear as he went down once he was in the clutches of most defenders. The rookie running back tended to most of his damage on delays or when the offensive coordinator designed plays to get him in space.”

Per PFF, Richardson was ranked ninth overall in breakaway percentage.  He carried the ball 98 times and had five rushes of over 15 yards for a total of 165 yards (34.7% of his total rushing).  I took a look at those five plays and saw he wasn’t even touched before hitting the second level of the defense (if even touched) on all but one of the plays (Week 10 against the 49ers).  On his longest play against the Redskins in week two, Richardson wasn’t touched until ten yards into the run.  When the defender did touch him, it was a light push, reminiscent of my playing days in Pee Wee football.  The blocking was spot on perfect on four of the five runs – meaning I wasn’t very impressed with the running back, only the blocking.   I wouldn’t say they were flukes because those plays happen in the NFL, but I am saying that if you take Richardson’s other 93 carries, he ran for just 310 yards (3.3 YPC).

Richardson also had three fumbles (two lost) this season, something he will have to improve on in a Fisher-led football team.

Since Pead had just ten carries in 2012, I had to look into the Cincinnati archives to continue my study.  The first thing that jumps out at me is Pead’s ability to plant his foot and explode up field.  He has next level cutbacks in his repertoire.  His ability to sense where the hole will open up is uncanny, making him a very natural runner and his nose for the end zone is impressive, something Richardson lacks.  What might get Pead in trouble is his willingness (too much so) to bounce the play outside.

Matt Waldman wrote Pead much better than I could ever dream to here.

Pead’s biggest issue is that he’s a liability in pass protection- it was almost unwatchable.  He sees where the pressure is coming from but lowers his head and whiffs just about every time.  What’s an even bigger indictment of his pass protection “skills” is that Richardson was in the bottom third of the league in PBE and Pead still didn’t get a crack at it.  Pead had three chances this season to provide pass protection for Sam Bradford and was rated 100.0 by PFF, tied for the best in the league.  That’s what you call domination, folks. <sarcasm>

His pass catching was a little bothersome as well.  You can see he doesn’t have natural pass catching ability and takes his eyes off the ball to look up field.  When he is able to catch the ball in open space, he’s fun to watch, but it’s something he will need to improve on if he’s ever to compete for the lead back role in St. Louis.

What I saw in his NFL carries was encouraging.  He didn’t try to bounce plays outside and was a tough inside runner when the play dictated it.  When the play went outside, he put his foot in the ground and exploded up field when he saw a hole instead of going too far outside, then run out of bounds.  He can be a very shifty runner and difficult to get a clean hit on as shown by his elusive rating.  Even though the sample size is very small; he does possess these types of skills that are NFL ready.  Per PFF, Pead had an elusive rating of 101.5, or ninth best running back out of all qualifying players – mind you, that’s only on 13 total touches, so it’s not something to get too excited about.  Also, keep in mind Pead had two fumbles (one lost) on just 13 touches this season- another red flag.

Conclusion

At this point, we don’t even know if Jackson will be back or not and all of this will probably end up being conjecture, but for purposes known only to us fantasy addicts, let’s say he does move on.  I think Richardson has proven he can be a good back in this league, but has not proven he can take the place of Jackson as the team’s “bell cow.”  Pead has only proven he was a very good college running back, but clearly did not make the necessary progress in development to show us what he can do at this level.  Given Richardson’s sample size, I just don’t see a lead back- he has the look of a complimentary, change of pace type runner.  Conversely, Pead has the second round tag to his name that Fisher himself used on him and I have to believe that it will be his job to lose in training camp if/when Jackson moves on.  He will need to improve dramatically in his pass protection and perhaps go to the school of Coughlin for his fumblitits (this has a bit of a David Wilson feel to it), but the kid has electric-type ability and they are issues that can be fixed.  Fisher has compared him to Chris Johnson (is that a good thing?) and thought the kid would be Jackson’s successor someday and I still think he could be.

What I love the most about Pead is the fact no one in the fantasy world is a believer anymore.

According to January’s ADPs in DLF’s dynasty mock drafts, owners were favoring Richardson – drafting him as the RB37 with an ADP of 106.  Pead was being drafted as the RB48 with an ADP of 135.  As of the most recent dynasty mock drafts, their ADPs are 110 and 158, respectively.  The vast majority are still on the Richardson bus.

Pead is going to be cheap right now and shouldn’t cost much to acquire, depending on the owner, of course.  Do yourself a favor and throw out an offer to and see if something happens.  Take advantage of the owner who holds recency bias close to their heart and attack at will.

Writer’s Note: It just so happens I’m in a salary cap league with DLF’s Ryan McDowell, who owns (owned) Pead.  I wrote this article on Friday night and he had no idea of my new found love for Pead.  On Monday night, he sends me a trade proposal with said running back included.  After many back and forth counter offers, we agreed on these terms:

I get: Isaiah Pead

I give: 2014 second round draft pick and the 2013 1.12 developmental pick.

Ryan obviously knows his stuff, so there was no fleecing to be had here.  I made the trade because I have still have extra draft picks via past trades and also hold the 1.04 devy pick for this year.

Sometimes in dynasty, you just have to go with your gut before the guy you’ve targeted does great things and is too expensive to acquire.  While this isn’t an example of taking advantage of the Pead owner, it’s an example of taking a calculated risk.  In the end, I hope we both win this trade…but I won’t be upset if it turns out to be a fleecing in this guy’s favor.

Isaiah 11:1

“A shoot will come up from the stump of Jesse; from his roots a Branch will bear fruit.”   

Pead is that shoot…and fantasy gold will by thy fruit.     

Shoot me your questions on Twitter at @Chad_Scott13.  Always looking for more ideas!