Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) What kind of value would you put on rookie pick 1.01? I traded Run DMC for Lamar Miller and 1.01. Feel I did well but still up in the air with the 1.01′s value. Thoughts? – Paul in Wisconsin
Most years I would say that you got a steal with that trade, this year I think it’s pretty even. I’m not a big Darren McFadden fan, but he’s still drafted as a mid-to-high end RB2 in start-ups. Lamar Miller is a hot commodity right now, but that’s largely unproven promise.
Usually by this point in the draft process we have a consensus top running back and at least a strong feeling about who the top wide receiver will be – that’s not the case at all this year. And unfortunately unlike say, 2010, the issue isn’t the glut of talent, it’s that lack of it. There just isn’t a clear cut stud that people with the 1.01 can target.
Those who have the 1.01 will likely end up picking amongst a group of about four good prospects. Right now I project that list to be Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. These are all good players, but each has weaknesses.
More so than any year I can recall I am keenly interested to see where the receivers land in the draft. This is contrary to my usual tendency – for example I traded up (and paid heavily to do so) to get to the 1.01 before AJ Green was drafted. I didn’t care where he went, he was my 1.01 pick. No so this year. The tiers for the rookie draft are going to be very large and the last thing I use to separate my rankings is the draft.
2.) I am joining a new dynasty league and we are drafting our veterans in March and rookies in May. We will be drafting our rookie spots in the veteran’s draft. When should I aim to draft my rookie spot? The veterans draft will be 26 rounds. – Wesley in Cuba
They’ll go pretty early because you are drafting so close to the NFL draft. Generally speaking the closer to April you draft, the higher they go. This is simply a reflection of the fact that all rookie picks are approaching their seasonal high in value right now.
My bet would be the 1.01 doesn’t make it past the end of the fourth round. Often times once it goes off the board, a run will begin. People have a tendency to forget about the rookie picks because the veteran list is loaded with talent at that point. But once an owner pulls the trigger, the run begins.
I’d advocate being very patient on taking a rookie selection this year. I’d let other owners scoop up the top picks while I was building my roster with studs. Remember that the first five or six rounds are basically every week starters for you. I’m hesitant to burn a selection like that on a top rookie pick given the lack of top end talent in this draft class. I’d love to end up with two picks in the 1.10-2.04 range because what the draft lacks in top talent, it makes up for in depth. Later picks should come fairly cheaply for you – certainly in the double digit rounds.
3.) Can you discuss the future prospects of the following former first round picks – Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, and Ryan Mathews? Are any of them droppable at this point? – Michael in Buffalo
I suppose you could drop either Rashard Mendenhall or Beanie Wells if you had to. I’d only drop them if I was in a league with limited keeper spots or there was a jewel on the waiver wire I could pick up. I can’t foresee a future where either of these guys adds a ton of value to a dynasty team in a 12-team league, but you might spot start them in a pinch.
Moreno and Mathews certainly shouldn’t be dropped. Mathews is a high end RB2 and Moreno is a solid flex player. Mathews is still pretty much the only game in town which means he has fantasy value. Moreno’s situation is murkier, but he looked good last year. I think an argument can be made that Mathews is a good buy low right now. His owners are understandably very frustrated and that often sets the stage for a good deal.
4.) I have been offered Trent Richardson for Russell Wilson. My other QB is Matty Ice. It’s obviously a good deal except Richardson’s 3.6 yards per carry average last year stands out in a bad way. Would you do this deal or go after someone like Marshawn if you could get him? – Matt in San Jose
I’d take Trent Richardson and I wouldn’t look back. Even if you don’t like him, he has tremendous trade value and is worth substantially more than Russell Wilson. The only QB in the game that I’d even consider trading Richardson for would be Aaron Rodgers and I don’t think I’d do that.
I wouldn’t take Marshawn Lynch over Richardson either, because I bet you could trade T-Rich to the Lynch owner and get something extra in return – at the very least an upgraded pick in the rookie draft or something like that. Richardson is fast becoming an elite dynasty asset. His early ADP is in the top six with the only running backs ahead of him being Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice.
I hope this deal is still there for you and, if so, snap it up!
5.) With the trade rumors swirling around Percy Harvin, would you prefer him to get out of Minnesota and away from the inconsistent Ponder? – Carmen in Miami
I’d prefer Percy Harvin either get a deal done or go somewhere else if he’s actually going to hold out, that’s for sure. Beyond that, I’d rather see him stay. Harvin is a super stud and has proven he can perform well in fantasy regardless of the quarterback.
Those who own Harvin know this, but it bears mentioning that through week eight (he was hurt in week nine); he was the highest scoring WR in PPR formats. And that’s with “inconsistent Ponder” at the helm. I’m not sure why Harvin owners would be so excited about a new situation. It can’t get much better than being the undisputed weapon in the passing offense.
While Ponder isn’t a world beater, he’s not as bad as people make him out to be. He completes over 60% of his passes and throws more touchdowns than picks – that’s basically what he’s being asked to do in an offense that runs through Adrian Peterson.
I’ll just remind the Harvin owners that the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. You’ve got it pretty good right now. Things could be worse elsewhere. Team changes sometimes don’t agree with receivers.
6.) We are starting a dynasty league next year. We are able to keep three players from last year’s team to anchor the new team. I’m going to keep Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. Which QB would you keep: Matt Stafford or Colin Kaepernick? – Jason in Minnesota
That’s a tough one for sure!
The first thing I’d try to do is package one of the quarterbacks with either of your wide receivers to get a better receiver. Maybe Colin Kaepernick and Brandon Marshall for Calvin Johnson or AJ Green. It’s better to trade a player than cut him.
In the event you can’t get a deal done for whatever reason, your receivers are terrific anyway. At that point, I think I’d keep Matt Stafford. It would pain me to toss Kaep back, but I just don’t have enough data points to feel good recommending him as your quarterback keeper.
It’s tough to argue with Stafford given the sheer volume of passing in that offense. He’s coming off a season where he threw the ball 727 times – that’s unheard of! He’s basically had back-to-back 5,000 yard seasons. And I see no reason that won’t continue. Detroit’s running game is still questionable at best (no pun intended).
I also expect a bounce back in touchdowns for both Stafford and Calvin Johnson. I think 2013 was a bit fluky – he threw the most passes, but ranked 20th in TDs. I don’t see him getting over 40 again, but low 30’s seems like a reasonable projection. Ten more TDs would put him back in the mix to be a top-5 QB.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.
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I don’t know what to do with Ryan Matthews. Im in a 16 team non PPR league with 1 QB 2 WR 2 RB 1 TE I K 1 DST and 1 RB/WR/TE flex. I have Tate, J Stewart, Tolbert, B Pierce, Powell, and Daryl Richardson. I was thinking about trading Mathews and pettigrew for a Hernandez and 1.01 this year and use it on E. Lacy. Thoughts?
Mathews value is in the tank and Pettigrew has hands of stone… I doubt that you’d be able to trade those two for Hernandez and the 1.01… You’ll probably need to up the ante to pull that one off, but you can try.
As a Chargers fan, I think Ryan Mathews will float around the NFL a couple more years, just based on his draft status as a former first round pick, and other teams believing they can fix him. The book has been written on Mathews. He is talented but injury prone. It doesn’t help that he is running behind one of the worst offensive lines in football, and he has a whole new coaching staff/administration evaluating him. I don’t think Mathews will last just based on his propensity to get injured alone. I’ve heard Mathews described as an RB2, but that’s his ceiling in the short-term. In three years, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mathews out of football. So, in that sense, I would sell him now. Yeah, his value is at an all-time low, but he is kind of like buying a formerly great stock because it’s cheap. Cheap stocks aren’t always good values, because something may be fundamentally wrong with the company. That’s also called catching a falling knife. There should be an owner or two, maybe more, in most dynasty leagues who will still covet Mathews enough to give you decent value.
Completely agree. Every player eventually falls until they hit the floor and wash out of the league. I often hear fantasy owners telling me or others that they don’t want to “sell low” on a guy. The only way that you can sell low is if the player is actually going to be worth more down the road. Not everyone comes back up. The window for Mathews is very quickly coming to a close.
Moreno did NOT look good last season. He had one great game (v.s. crap Baltimore defense) and underperformed v.s. some of the worst run defenses in league (KC, Oakland). And this is with PEYTON MANNING as his QB. It’s clear you didn’t actually watch him play. Denver will likely cut him.
They’ll go with a platoon of McGahee and Hillman which would be infinitely more effective than what Moreno brings to the table.
Wow…someone needs to do some homework…once Moreno was made the starter he averaged 85 yards rushing/game which would have been good for 7th in the NFL, getting 22 carries/game.
110.8 yards from scrimmage as the starter is certainly worthy of a roster spot for real life and for fantasy.
His 3.9 yards/carry wasn’t great, but he was coming off a major injury and volumn does matter…
There is no way they will cut him b/c McGahee is 60 years old and will get hurt again…
Be that as it may, fact is, reports indicate Moreno could be cut. Furthermore, several other reputable sources PFF have dismissed what many consider to be volume based production. I have to agree with the above poster. Moreno is not the answer and was nothing more than a fill in. I wouldnt buy and suggest selling him for whatever you can get before its too late.
So which of Mendy and Wells would you keep over Moreno? And why?
Mendy by a mile. FA that should be in conversation for starting gig. Rumors of Moreno already being cut and if that happens I’d also take Beanie over him.
No doubt Tim……Once Moreno got hurt in that playoff game against Baltimore, the offense struggled in both the running game and protecting the QB!
I can’t argue that injuries are a concern with Moreno but what RB doesn’t come with injury concerns?
Even though he may get cut by Denver this year for salary cap reasons, he will find a home and will be productive as long as he can stay healthy! Not sure I can say the same about Mendy or Wells and they come with the same injury concerns as Moreno!!!! Either way……Moreno is the more talented back of the three!!!
I am still not over “crap Baltimore defense” comment…you know the one with Ngata and Suggs and Reed and Lewis..etc
They may not be elite anymore..but crap? I beg to differ.
The issue people are ignoring is how Moreno was used. He had a lot of carries late in the game to burn out the clock.
I hadn’t realized this point, but someone posted stats regarding Moreno and in the 1st/2nd/3rd quarters, he averaged above 4.0 ypc, I believe.
It was the 4th quarter carries that made him look bad overall. I think he is fine, as in I don’t think he will be cut, but I also don’t expect him to carry the load and be an RB2.
I value them as:
Mathews
Mendy
Moreno/Wells
Either Moreno or Wells could become the guy in the timeshare, but aren’t expected to. Whereas Mendy doesn’t have a team but I think he will be the main RB for whatever team he ends up with.
Moreno is my rb2, behind Shady McCoy. I can either protect Ridley or Jimmy Graham. Can I trust Moreno enough to protect my stud TE, or should I protect Ridley? My other RBs include Vereen and Pierre Thomas.
I hate to be the one to have to tell you this, but Steven Ridley is your RB2.
I feel like Joey Greco at a staging area.
Wow, surprised the author thinks the gap between Julio and AJ is in the neighborhood of Kaepernick. Julio has the better offense and an aging WR1 who he is destined to replace. No way I’d give up Julio and Kaepernick for AJ, probably not even for Megatron.
I think you need to re-read that answer. I never said the gap between AJG/JJ was Kaep. I challenge you to point to where I said that.
Also, the guy has to cut a QB. So the gap doesn’t matter.
I have a similar sitution to the Wilson for a rb situation. Its a 0.5 ppr, 1qb, 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 rb/wr, 1 te, and I own Stafford, Ryan, Kaepernick, McCoy, Martin, and Matthews. I have been offered either Lynch or Morris for Kaepernick. Good enough value? and if so which one would be better?
I would jump on the Kaepernick for Morris offer in a heartbeat!!!
i have(had) all four of those first round losers:Mendy,RM,Beanie and NO-Show and i paid to get all of them. Sometimes the pretty girl at the bar isn’t going to make the best wife:(
The problem with Mendy and beanie are they don’t catch the ball at all and don’t pass protect….Moreno might not be a superstar but when healthy he is the best back in Peyton’s up tempo no huddle offense.
finally someone who understands the true value of moreno. it all matters what peyton manning thinks about it period. he was rumored to tell john fox that he wanted the vetern blocking for his backside no ifs ands or buts. fox went to elway and elway said ok so be it. if peyton feels comfortable with it, do it. peyton manning made the statement that he felt it was a great opportunity for moreno to shine. this is after all the “experts” said it was hillmans job to lose. hillman never got the job and wont this year either. he’ll be a change of pace back. mcgahee will be over 30 and 2.6 million. moreno is 27 and 1.7 million and a great starter till hillman comes into the position. math and common sence and peyton manning will answer this question. stash moreno if you picked him up cheap and he’ll be a great #2rb or flex.
yeah, I’ve never been high on moreno, who did well enough last half of the year, has never really done much with his opportunities. Wonder how a Deangelo Williams rotation would look in the Bronco’s backfield next year? Probably better than a McGahee rotation, but we’ll see…
I always find it fascinating how owners value players so differently. Someone mentioned they got an offer of Lynch or Morris for Kaepernick and in my IDP league the Kaepernick owner can’t give him away haha. I’m sure he would love to get Morris or Lynch for Kaepernick buy he can’t even get Mark Baron for him. Crazy haha
I too am named Frank the Tank. Weird. (Since kindergarten….way before “Old School” movie.) nice to know Ya
What’s up Frank! Haha
Props to the guy that traded knobby toed DMC for Lamar Miller and the 1.1!!!
One helluva trade for a perenially injured underachiever.
Yes thats a steal…..id take L.Miller and the 1.1 over DMC anyday, heck, id take Miller over DMC, Miller may end up being a stud, we know what DMC is gonna give us. Great move.
so ray rice and trent richardson are being drafted before arian foster? lol. insanity.
Question 6: I am very surprised all the teams in a league agreed to keeping 3 players from last year to form a dynasty league beginning the next year. Is that normal? Seems like you would want to start up draft in preparation for a dynasty.
I was really surprised to hear the authors take on Mendenhall. I think there was an argument to be made that he was in close to the same tier as Ray Rice before he went down with injury and had a lost season. Depending on where he lands he could really hit the big time. Imagine if he goes to Atlanta, Denver, Indianapolis, or even stays in Pittsburgh as the starter. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t bounce back. As for Beanie 1. I wish he could stay healthy 2. I wish he could be on another team that doesn’t have the worst O-Line in NFL History.