The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) What kind of value would you put on rookie pick 1.01? I traded Run DMC for Lamar Miller and 1.01. Feel I did well but still up in the air with the 1.01’s value. Thoughts? – Paul in Wisconsin
Most years I would say that you got a steal with that trade, this year I think it’s pretty even. I’m not a big Darren McFadden fan, but he’s still drafted as a mid-to-high end RB2 in start-ups. Lamar Miller is a hot commodity right now, but that’s largely unproven promise.
Usually by this point in the draft process we have a consensus top running back and at least a strong feeling about who the top wide receiver will be – that’s not the case at all this year. And unfortunately unlike say, 2010, the issue isn’t the glut of talent, it’s that lack of it. There just isn’t a clear cut stud that people with the 1.01 can target.
Those who have the 1.01 will likely end up picking amongst a group of about four good prospects. Right now I project that list to be Eddie Lacy, Gio Bernard, Cordarrelle Patterson and Keenan Allen. These are all good players, but each has weaknesses.
More so than any year I can recall I am keenly interested to see where the receivers land in the draft. This is contrary to my usual tendency – for example I traded up (and paid heavily to do so) to get to the 1.01 before AJ Green was drafted. I didn’t care where he went, he was my 1.01 pick. No so this year. The tiers for the rookie draft are going to be very large and the last thing I use to separate my rankings is the draft.
2.) I am joining a new dynasty league and we are drafting our veterans in March and rookies in May. We will be drafting our rookie spots in the veteran’s draft. When should I aim to draft my rookie spot? The veterans draft will be 26 rounds. – Wesley in Cuba
They’ll go pretty early because you are drafting so close to the NFL draft. Generally speaking the closer to April you draft, the higher they go. This is simply a reflection of the fact that all rookie picks are approaching their seasonal high in value right now.
My bet would be the 1.01 doesn’t make it past the end of the fourth round. Often times once it goes off the board, a run will begin. People have a tendency to forget about the rookie picks because the veteran list is loaded with talent at that point. But once an owner pulls the trigger, the run begins.
I’d advocate being very patient on taking a rookie selection this year. I’d let other owners scoop up the top picks while I was building my roster with studs. Remember that the first five or six rounds are basically every week starters for you. I’m hesitant to burn a selection like that on a top rookie pick given the lack of top end talent in this draft class. I’d love to end up with two picks in the 1.10-2.04 range because what the draft lacks in top talent, it makes up for in depth. Later picks should come fairly cheaply for you – certainly in the double digit rounds.
3.) Can you discuss the future prospects of the following former first round picks – Rashard Mendenhall, Knowshon Moreno, Beanie Wells, and Ryan Mathews? Are any of them droppable at this point? – Michael in Buffalo
I suppose you could drop either Rashard Mendenhall or Beanie Wells if you had to. I’d only drop them if I was in a league with limited keeper spots or there was a jewel on the waiver wire I could pick up. I can’t foresee a future where either of these guys adds a ton of value to a dynasty team in a 12-team league, but you might spot start them in a pinch.
Moreno and Mathews certainly shouldn’t be dropped. Mathews is a high end RB2 and Moreno is a solid flex player. Mathews is still pretty much the only game in town which means he has fantasy value. Moreno’s situation is murkier, but he looked good last year. I think an argument can be made that Mathews is a good buy low right now. His owners are understandably very frustrated and that often sets the stage for a good deal.
4.) I have been offered Trent Richardson for Russell Wilson. My other QB is Matty Ice. It’s obviously a good deal except Richardson’s 3.6 yards per carry average last year stands out in a bad way. Would you do this deal or go after someone like Marshawn if you could get him? – Matt in San Jose
I’d take Trent Richardson and I wouldn’t look back. Even if you don’t like him, he has tremendous trade value and is worth substantially more than Russell Wilson. The only QB in the game that I’d even consider trading Richardson for would be Aaron Rodgers and I don’t think I’d do that.
I wouldn’t take Marshawn Lynch over Richardson either, because I bet you could trade T-Rich to the Lynch owner and get something extra in return – at the very least an upgraded pick in the rookie draft or something like that. Richardson is fast becoming an elite dynasty asset. His early ADP is in the top six with the only running backs ahead of him being Adrian Peterson and Ray Rice.
I hope this deal is still there for you and, if so, snap it up!
5.) With the trade rumors swirling around Percy Harvin, would you prefer him to get out of Minnesota and away from the inconsistent Ponder? – Carmen in Miami
I’d prefer Percy Harvin either get a deal done or go somewhere else if he’s actually going to hold out, that’s for sure. Beyond that, I’d rather see him stay. Harvin is a super stud and has proven he can perform well in fantasy regardless of the quarterback.
Those who own Harvin know this, but it bears mentioning that through week eight (he was hurt in week nine); he was the highest scoring WR in PPR formats. And that’s with “inconsistent Ponder” at the helm. I’m not sure why Harvin owners would be so excited about a new situation. It can’t get much better than being the undisputed weapon in the passing offense.
While Ponder isn’t a world beater, he’s not as bad as people make him out to be. He completes over 60% of his passes and throws more touchdowns than picks – that’s basically what he’s being asked to do in an offense that runs through Adrian Peterson.
I’ll just remind the Harvin owners that the grass is always greener on the other side of the fence. You’ve got it pretty good right now. Things could be worse elsewhere. Team changes sometimes don’t agree with receivers.
6.) We are starting a dynasty league next year. We are able to keep three players from last year’s team to anchor the new team. I’m going to keep Julio Jones and Brandon Marshall. Which QB would you keep: Matt Stafford or Colin Kaepernick? – Jason in Minnesota
That’s a tough one for sure!
The first thing I’d try to do is package one of the quarterbacks with either of your wide receivers to get a better receiver. Maybe Colin Kaepernick and Brandon Marshall for Calvin Johnson or AJ Green. It’s better to trade a player than cut him.
In the event you can’t get a deal done for whatever reason, your receivers are terrific anyway. At that point, I think I’d keep Matt Stafford. It would pain me to toss Kaep back, but I just don’t have enough data points to feel good recommending him as your quarterback keeper.
It’s tough to argue with Stafford given the sheer volume of passing in that offense. He’s coming off a season where he threw the ball 727 times – that’s unheard of! He’s basically had back-to-back 5,000 yard seasons. And I see no reason that won’t continue. Detroit’s running game is still questionable at best (no pun intended).
I also expect a bounce back in touchdowns for both Stafford and Calvin Johnson. I think 2013 was a bit fluky – he threw the most passes, but ranked 20th in TDs. I don’t see him getting over 40 again, but low 30’s seems like a reasonable projection. Ten more TDs would put him back in the mix to be a top-5 QB.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.
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