Early 2013 Dynasty Rookie Draft: Round One
It’s February – that means Valentine’s day, cold temperatures, and the start of “Rookie Fever.” With the Super Bowl in the rear view mirror, all die-hard fans are turning their eyes towards the combine and the 2013 crop of rookies.
In order to share some of our thoughts and give you a few names to watch as the combine and pro days unfold, we put together a 12 person rookie only mock draft. Keep in mind this is just a super early take on the current draft class. Personal rankings will change drastically as the combine, pro days, and the 2013 NFL Draft unfold. Landing spots will undoubtedly have major influence on several of these players and will help solidify rankings. Until then, things are very fluid. There will be names not listed that could end up being first round rookie picks if everyone goes right for them or names in the first round that go undrafted if everything falls apart.
For this mock draft, we assumed it was a standard scoring PPR league with normal lineup requirements, meaning no IDP, super flex, or 2 quarterback leagues. Trades were not allowed. Draft order was randomly assigned and each drafter was asked to make a brief comment about why they made the pick they did. I’ll follow up each pick with some brief thoughts of my own. I’m not a draft expert, and like many of you, my rookie analysis is just beginning. I’m just sharing my thoughts so you get two opinions on each pick. In cases of disagreement, I’ll be the first to admit that I might be the one who is wrong.
On with the show!
1.01 – Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama
Mark’s thoughts: The clear top overall pick early in the process. Not another Trent Richardson, but a very good blend of power and speed. He has good hands and with the right landing spot, he has three down potential.
My thoughts: Unlike in past years, there isn’t a clear top player or even a clear top three or four at this point in time. You could make an argument for roughly six different players to go at pick 1.01. If you decide you want a running back, I think Lacy is the right choice right now. While he isn’t elite, he is very good at everything, which can lead to a very successful career.
1.02 – Giovani Bernard, RB North Carolina
Coleman’s thoughts: In PPR, it’s great to have a running back who catches the ball extremely well, as Bernard does. He could challenge Lacy for the 1.01 if he goes to a place like Detroit or Cincinnati.
My thoughts: Bernard is very fast and very explosive. PPR scoring definitely helps Bernard who has great hands and is very good in the open field. However, there is something that bothers me about Bernard – he seems to lack power and almost seems to lack the desire to fight for extra yards. He struggles after contact and doesn’t seem to make defenders miss as much as I had hoped. There’s a big enough gap between him and Lacy that I might have gone WR here, but he is the next best RB on the board.
1.03 – Keenan Allen, WR California
Jaron’s thoughts: Allen has all the tools, though lack of elite speed may cause him to slip a bit – that’s what I’m counting on as that could allow him to go to a better team later in the first round, preferably one with a solid QB and line. I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do in the NFL, particularly now that he’s “on my roster.”
My thoughts: You could make an argument for any one of at least three receivers to be the first selected right now. I’m not sure who I would take first right now if I had to pick. He almost makes me think of a slightly watered down Larry Fitzgerald in that Allen lacks speed and acceleration, but has great body control, route running, and separation ability.
1.04 – Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
Jeff B’s thoughts: The stats (especially the completion percentage) he posted during his senior season is impossible to ignore. He’s got great size and intangibles and I expect him to be an instant superstar if he gets drafted by a team that can plug him directly into a zone-read type offense. Keenan Allen is the only player I had higher on my draft board, so this was a relatively easy choice.
My thoughts: I think this was the first curve ball of the mock draft. Personally, I’m not a huge fan of this pick. Jeff and I clearly don’t agree, because I really don’t see any quarterback in this year’s class that has QB1 upside. I think I would probably rather have guys like Josh Freeman or Sam Bradford as a developmental quarterback than anyone from this class. This early in the round I would have gone for one of the receivers still available.
1.05 – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
Jon’s thoughts: Best player available at this point. To me, he is a bigger, faster version of Randall Cobb. He was used on returns, rushing, and of course, receiving situations as well as even passing the ball. He has the skill set that will help him find a way on to the field early in his career. His size/speed combo combined with an electric skill set make him a first round NFL talent. If he goes to the right team, he could be the pick of the draft.
My thoughts: This is another of the three receivers I think you could argue as the best of the bunch. He is probably the most likely to be drafted first in the NFL draft due to his versatility and skill set. Of course the downside of being drafted high is that he will most likely be dealing with a sub-par or inexperienced quarterback, maybe both. However, he might just have the highest upside of the receiver group this year. I would be very happy to get him mid-first round.
1.06 –Zach Ertz, TE Stanford
Ryan’s thoughts: The big tight end from Stanford has quickly climbed the draft boards with the NFL Combine approaching. In a deep tight end class, he and Notre Dame’s Tyler Eiffert are clearly the top two options. When drafting rookies before the actual NFL draft, I was looking for the safest option, and that was clearly Ertz, who also offers big-time upside. Ertz should go in the late first round, meaning he’s likely headed to an established playoff contender. On a team like Green Bay or Atlanta, he’d immediately be a top fantasy option.
My thoughts: Ertz is a great player and has the talent to maybe one day be a TE1, but I struggle with taking tight ends early in rookie drafts. Typically the position takes a while for players to develop. The logistics of most leagues also make them less valuable than other positions. Like Ryan said, this is a pretty safe pick, but I think there was more value and upside to be had here. If your scoring for tight ends is the same as receivers, and you’re only forced to start one, I would have rather taken a receiver in this spot.
1.07 – DeAndre Hopkins, WR Clemson
Andy’s thoughts: I was very excited to select him at the 1.07 as I have him ranked as my second best wide receiver. He is excellent at catching the ball at its highest point regardless of coverage. Hopkins runs crisp routes, sells the defender on where he is going, then suddenly changes direction. I love his little “shake and bake” juke he uses to get separation.
My thoughts: I think this is a steal. To get Hopkins with pick seven is about as much luck as you can hope for. He’s also one of the three receivers that I can see being taken as the first fantasy receiver right now. With his speed and leaping ability, he has a shot to be a top notch deep threat in the NFL.
1.08 – Marcus Lattimore, RB South Carolina
Eric’s thoughts: I figured if I was picking near the back portion of the round, my team must have been fairly decent, so taking Lattimore was a luxury pick considering he would have been the 1.01 before the injury. I’m keeping my fingers crossed he heals up and lands in a good spot.
My thoughts: At this point in the round, I think Lattimore is worth the gamble. I wouldn’t think about taking him much before this point as the gamble is just too big. It is far too early in the process to know exactly how healthy his knee is, but there are reports that have him going anywhere from the second day of the NFL draft to being undrafted. Team and health will have a lot to do with his value in your fantasy league, but right now he’s definitely worth a luxury pick at 1.08.
1.09 – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
Tim’s thoughts: I was worried that picking at 1.09 or later was going to leave me with a TE. I can’t stand taking a TE in the first round, but Eifert could be very valuable if he goes to a good situation. Got sniped on Lattimore.
My thoughts: I have Eifert right on par with Ertz. He is a great talent that could be very productive in the right situation. However, I still struggle with taking tight ends in the first round, just like Tim did when he made the pick. I would like this pick better if it were five or so picks later, but this is probably right about where you will see a TE go, especially if one of the top two ends up in Atlanta.
1.10 – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee
Doug’s thoughts: Best value in my eyes left on the board at pick 1.10. He hasn’t fully regained all of his explosiveness since tearing his ACL in 2011, but once he does he has the ability to stretch the field. At 6’4″, he should also be a matchup nightmare in the redzone.
My thoughts: Hard to argue with the value at this point. Hunter is a beast and came on strong late in the season. However, he is still yet to regain his full pre-injury form, which is why he’s still available at this point. Had the knee injury never happened, we could easily be talking about him being an AJ Green or Julio Jones type of prospect.
1.11 Montee Ball, RB Wisconsin
My thoughts: Since this was my pick, I obviously like it. He is very hard to pass on him at the tail end of the first round. It isn’t a sexy pick by any means, but had Ball come out last year, he easily would have been taken in the upper half of all rookie drafts, even in the excellent 2012 rookie class. He made a mistake by going back to a team that lost its quarterback and pretty much the entire offense around him, allowing defenses to key in on him.
While he lacks the top end speed and burst that would make him a top tier back, he has great vision, balance and hits the hole hard. Plus, it is really difficult to argue with his college production. He clearly has a nose for the end zone with him being the all-time record holder for career touchdowns in Division I and second on the list for most in a season. He won’t ever be a home run hitter, but on the right team, he could be a week one starter and the majority part of a committee, making him a very solid RB2 – hard to ask for more in the last few picks of round one.
1.12 – Robert Woods, WR USC
Jeff H’s thoughts: He is one of those receivers I’ve followed from High School, committing to USC as a five star prep player. When watching tape on Woods, he’s gritty, tough and is quick off the line of scrimmage. He’s got tremendous agility and uses his body and speed to his advantage. He’s not the type of receiver who is going to take over a game, but in a PPR system, Woods has a lot of upside and could develop into a true WR1.
My thoughts: Woods being available with the last pick in the first round is definitely a testament to the deepness of this draft, especially at the wide receiver position. He lost some value during the 2012 season – this was part due to struggling through an ankle injury, his quarterback getting injured, and the emergence of Marqise Lee. Nonetheless, Woods has the talent to be a solid starter at the NFL level and is well worth the pick.
Stay tuned for the second round of picks coming in tomorrow’s edition!
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
