The 2012 fantasy football off-season has begun. You have to pay close attention to everything in order to stay on top of your dynasty league. For most of us, we do well to steal some time away from our families and jobs to watch the games on Sunday. It becomes difficult to monitor the daily happenings around the league and even more demanding to process how that news affects your dynasty team.
That’s why we’re here!
Now that we have entered the off-season, the next few months will be filled with rumors. Much of the “news” will be speculation about the futures of individual players. While this can be important, it can also be a challenge to determine the validity of certain reports. I will included many of these reports and share my opinion about how the player’s value might be affected, for better or worse.
Here is a quick look at the events of the past week and how they impact the players on your team:
Reggie Bush, RB FA
Reports this week were that the Miami Dolphins are unlikely to re-sign free agent running back Reggie Bush. Bush has had his two best seasons of his career with the Dolphins, but the team has multiple needs and drafted Lamar Miller last season. The expectation is that if they do allow Bush to walk, Miller would be his likely successor. This has obviously helped Miller’s value increase since this was reported, but Bush could also see an uptick in his dynasty value if he lands in the right situation. Both running backs are quality options to acquire at this point.
Terrelle Pryor, QB OAK
There has already been some early speculation regarding the starting quarterback position for the Oakland Raiders next season. The current contenders include veteran Carson Palmer, who has started the majority of the games the past two seasons for the Raiders, and Terrelle Pryor, who Oakland acquired in the supplemental draft in 2011. It would also not be a surprise if the Raiders chose a quarterback early in the upcoming draft. Even though the Raiders have several quality wide receivers, there is no dynasty value at the quarterback position. Palmer is still the clear favorite to start next season, but is no better than a fantasy backup. Likewise, Pryor has very little value at the moment – we’ll have more on that in the coming days.
Chase Coffman, TE ATL
With future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez expected to retire, a huge gap is left in the Falcons offense. Local beat writers have already considered the possibility that Atlanta could fill the position “in house” with veteran Chase Coffman. He has only four career catches and would be a long shot to be a productive starter, but we did witness a breakout season from Raiders tight end Brandon Myers after three mediocre seasons. Coffman could be worth a roster spot in the deepest of leagues right now, but expect the team to use an early draft pick on a rookie tight end.
Cecil Shorts, WR JAX
Although it received relatively little attention late in the season, breakout wide receiver Cecil Shorts suffered two concussions in a month’s time and ended the season on the injured reserve list. Now though, Shorts has been cleared for football activities, which is obviously good news for all involved. Assuming the Jaguars upgrade at quarterback, Shorts could have an even better season in 2013, although another concussion could really hurt his value.
Editor’s Note: Look for a special feature on the ceiling of Shorts tomorrow right here on DLF.
Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR OAK
According to local beat writers, Oakland wide receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey is expected to be released, unless he agrees to take a large pay cut. The speedy wideout is due over $7.7 million in 2013 and with young players like Denarius Moore, Juron Criner and Rod Streater playing well, Heyward-Bey does not have much of a case to stick around in Oakland. Heyward-Bey could be a good buy low in dynasty leagues, but there is some risk since we are unsure of where he could end up. Historically, free agent wide receivers have not fared well on new teams, though that trend has slowly changed the past couple of seasons.
Kenny Britt, WR TEN
There have been some rumors that the 2013 season could be the last in Tennessee for oft-troubled wide receiver Kenny Britt, thanks to his continuous off field issues. Britt has already found trouble this off-season when he was uncooperative with a police investigation into a stabbing and shooting in New Jersey involving a friend of his. It seems he again has avoided a serious situation, but it is not surprising to think the Titans’ patience could be wearing thin. Britt needs a healthy and quiet off-season and a productive 2013 season to improve his chances of remaining with the team beyond next year.
Alex Smith, QB SF
Although this is not a surprise at this point, it seems inevitable the 49ers will, in some way, move on from former starting quarterback Alex Smith this off-season. They are expected to attempt to trade him, but reports are that Smith will push the team for an early release in order to give himself more options. Some early guesses regarding Smith’s future employer have included the Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills. A seemingly weak rookie quarterback class aids Smith’s odds of finding a starting job this season.
Danny Amendola, WR FA
Even though the off-season has yet to officially begin, we all know there will be plenty of speculation and guessing about trades, draft picks and free agency. ESPN’s Adam Schefter says there is a possibility of free agent wide receiver Danny Amendola signing with the Patriots. With further reports that the Patriots are planning a complete overhaul at the wide receiver position, which could signal the end of Wes Welker’s time with the team. Amendola would step right in as Welker’s replacement and his fantasy value would explode.
Dennis Dixon, QB BAL
There have been multiple reports this week that new Eagles head coach Chip Kelly may pursue his former Oregon Ducks starting quarterback Dennis Dixon, who is currently a member of the Ravens’ practice squad. Dixon had an excellent college career, but has bounced around the NFL. While this could be his chance, it could be a similar case to the Josh Johnson/Jim Harbuagh reports when the former Stanford coach entered the NFL. There is little need to rush to add Dixon from your league’s waiver wire.
Anquan Boldin, WR BAL
Another report from Schefter is about the possibility that the Ravens could release veteran wide receiver Anquan Boldin following the Super Bowl. The Ravens have some salary cap concerns and also must find a way to work out a new deal with starting quarterback Joe Flacco, and that price seems to be increasing each day. No matter if he is with the Ravens of any other team, Boldin has very little dynasty value at this point in his career.
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For Danny Amendola… we talking WR1 explosion?
I’m skeptical on Amendola and it’s all tied to his inability to stay healthy. If he ends up on the Patriots, he’ll provide great return for the games he plays. Given his spotty track record on health, I’m be extremely skeptical of his ability to reproduce Welker’s number over a full season.
The potential is there, but a lot has to happen. Landing in NE is an enticing thought, but far from a certainty, plus he’d have to stay healthy. At this point, I consider him a hold, but I would not be buying under the assumption he will give you Welker numbers.
Could Matt Flynn be traded to a team like Cleveland or Jacksonville? Would this give bump up or down to WR core of these teams ?
Flynn has the best job in the NFL.
Get paid like a #1 QB, but do the job of a #2 QB = leave the NFL with plenty of money (provided he’s smart) and no health risks.
He could be dealt, sure. I think there is a decent chance he is moved at some point. Those things usually seem to happen on draft day.
WHile I am not a huge fan of his, I do think he would be an upgrade for both CLE and JAX and would help those WRs.
A couple of deep sleepers related to some of these events:
Tommy Streeter, WR Balt- If Boldin leaves, could he be groomed to be his eventual successor? The guy has pretty crazy measurables similar to Stephen Hill.
Jacoby Ford- Seems like an eternity since he was relevant as he’s been injured the past 1.5 seasons. He can be a dynamic playmaker when healthy, whether it be rushing, receiving or in the return game. I really thought I was seeing a special player back in 2010 when he had that a dominant performance against KC. He certainly has the ability if and when healthy.
I’m more interested in the other Streater, who directly affects Ford’s value.
Do we anticipate him as the WR2 next to Moore? Will Criner be the WR2? How does this shake out?
I really like Rod Streater and I think he has a very good chance to really claim the WR2 job alongside Moore, with the rumors of DHB being released.
Criner is a decent option, but I don’t see him overtaking Streater. I worry about Criner’s ability to consistently catch the ball.
I was very excited to see where Streeter landed this time a year ago. I really liked what I had seen, including some of the measureables you mentioned. With his injury though, he never had a chance. As it stands now, there are rumors that the Ravens will release Anquan Boldin and make a think WR group even thinner. I do not think Jacoby Jones will be able to take over as a starter, so that would leave a starter’s spot wide open. I doubt Streeter will claim that next season, but opportunity is there. He is a great guy to stash while we wait to see how the offseason develops.
Like most dynasty owners, I loved Ford a couple years ago, but these back to back Lisfranc injuries are obviously a major concern. His best skill was his speed and that will be affected by the injury. Considering the Raiders have some good WRs, Ford may have missed his chance.
Anyone think Alex Smith ends up in AZ??? His stats support that he could have potential to be a 10-15 ranked QB if given a chance. If the Cards can figure out the RB and O-Line situation they have some nice weapons for Smith. I imagine Smith would like to play SF twice a year with a shot to show them that they made a mistake.
Anything is possible, but I have seen him linked more with some of the other QB needy teams. I think we are likely to see just what we have seen from Smith in the past. He can be a solid NFL QB and can help his team win games, but I don’t see him becoming a fantasy starter.
With D.Thomas, Cobb, A.Brown, D.Alexander as definite keepers, which of Edelman, Baldwin, Broyles, Hankerson you like as the 5th keeper and probably the last WR keeper id be able to afford to keep? I guess sitting back and seeing what happens regarding QB, and where they end up, but I can make a case to where all four of them could be ready to have a break out 2013?
Edelman is a function of whether they keep Welker. I consider Jon Baldwin a bust at this point. Broyles has the knee issues and we don’t know exactly when he will return. Hankerson is extremely inconsistent and hasn’t lived up to his draft slot.
I’d go with Edelman or Hankerson, I think. Not an inspiring group, but sans injury they are on the bench except for bye weeks, right?
Oh yea, there all projects. Just always like to try and grab a WR w upside before they hit. I only start 3 per week, so one of those big 4 are on the bench. I like Baldwin if he gets a QB, not really had a chance to show what he can do. Edelman has some upside too I think, heard rumor Detroit was interested in him?
For me, this is pretty clearly Ryan Broyles. I know he has the knee injury, but he has already shown that he can overcome that and play a role in the Lions offense. Also, with Titus Young likely on the way out, the door is open for playing time. He also had the highest ADP according to our dynasty mock data.
Thanks I agree because of his situation, think Baldwins upside is higer. Didnt mean to hit thumb down, stupid touch screen! Lol
I do like Baldwin and am wondering if he will get the chance to be the WR1 there with Bowe gone and if he can handle it.
Broyles.
What possible landing spots would be most ideal for Reggie Bush.. where his value would see a sharp increase? I’m an owner and am kind of on the fence about his future with my team… where should I hope he lands that he actually could land.
Detroit or Atlanta would be sweet!
Both Sigmund Bloom and Chris Wesseling mentioned Detroit and Cincy. While both have starting RBs who had solid seasons, I think it seems clear that neither team is fully confident in their guy going forward. I think he could do really well at either spot.
Just moved Hank… figured I would cut my loses..
i read an interesting tidbit that if the jets release tim tebow he could end up in chicago with coach marc trestman who has a little history with tebow as well as making running left handed qbs very succsessful in the nfl. he might be a good backup for cutlet and could actually be a great fit in that offensive scheme if needed. i just dont see all the football talent that tebow has to go to waste without someone trying to tap it?