Editor’s Note: This article is submitted by a new Member Corner author, Davis Mattek. You may recall his recent article on DuJuan Harris. We welcome Davis to the Member Corner and look forward to seeing more of his work in the future!
I recently participated in the first round of one of Dynasty League Football’s off-season dynasty mock drafts. Along with 12 other mock owners, I drafted 20 players along the scoring system of starting one quarterback, two runnings back, one wide receiver, a tight end and three flex positions. The scoring system was standard with PPR and we were not required to draft a kicker or defense, but if the league were to be played, starting lineups would have both as starting slots. I had the first pick of the draft and as a result, the wrap around pick for the next 19 rounds. I am going to take you through my roster and identify why I made the selections I did. The strategy here was to win right out of the gate, but also to add some youth for the future. You can find the entire draft here.
1.01 – Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
I think this is probably the easiest pick anyone in the draft had. He led the NFL in rushing less than a year removed from ACL surgery, is an inextricable part of a run heavy offense, and had a 30.1 offensive player rating from Pro Football Focus which led the second place finisher by 4.7. His resume is unparalleled and he is the most talented offensive skill position player in the league. In a league where you could potentially start up to five running backs and for a team wanting to compete early, taking Peterson first is a no brainer.
2.12 – Alfred Morris, RB WAS
I truly don’t know how he fell this far. Granted, it is a PPR league and Morris was not really featured out of the backfield much, but he seemed an extreme value. Weather he is running the pistol zone-read option with Robert Griffin III or the focus of a run heavy offense with Kirk Cousins, Morris has totally earned the trust of Mike Shanahan and will get fed the football. He had over 1,000 yards rushing last year after contact. While he is typically depicted as a plodder, his elusive rating of 51.0 was higher than LeSean McCoy and Reggie Bush. While it feels very unusual to invest this high a pick on a Mike Shanahan running back, I have always been of the mind that once he gets a running back he trusts, he runs them into the ground. Effectively, Shanahan has just been trying to replace Terrell Davis; in Morris, he found another workhouse sixth round pick to carry the load.
3-01 – Roddy White, WR ATL
Both of my WR1 picks, Percy Harvin and Randall Cobb had already been selected. I didn’t like the options presented of Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, Larry Fitzgerald or Jordy Nelson. White, while aging, still has not missed an NFL game and when I personally doubted him while dinged, had a two touchdown, 124 yard performance against the Detroit Lions. The best way to view dynasty leagues is in three year windows. I personally believe after he finished two spots ahead of A.J Green and three ahead of Brandon Marshall in PFF’s WR rating, White has two seasons of elite production left and at least four of a top 30 output still in the tank.
4.12 – Colin Kaepernick, QB SF
To be fair to my fellow drafters, it’s worth noting this pick was made before Kaep’s excellent showing against the Green Bay Packers. That explains why he was still available at this steep discount. To me, Kaepernick showed enough in the Bears and Patriots game to trust him as a top eight quarterback until he suffers a serious injury. His cannon of an arm, daring ability to throw downfield, intelligence in the zone-read and Harbaugh’s faith in the young man make it evident he has the skills to put up huge fantasy numbers. Running quarterbacks will always have a higher floor than strict pocket passers and after his record breaking rushing yardage in the divisional round, Kaepernick has proven to be explosive in that area.
5.01 – Marques Colston, WR NO
This is a PPR league, so adding Colston in the fifth round was a steal. The reason he falls this low for competing teams in dynasty startups could be the fact he’s simply boring. He will get around 125 of Drew Brees’ targets, score around ten touchdowns and reach around 1,200 receiving yards. A consistent high end WR2 is nothing to sneeze at in the fifth round, even though he has limited upside. One point in Colston’s favor is that Jimmy Graham’s battle with drops in 2012 could equate to more targets coming Colston’s way in 2013 as Brees has to re-learn to trust the redheaded tight end.
6.12 – DuJuan Harris, RB GB
I said about as much as can be said about DuJuan Harris in an earlier post for DLF. His decisiveness, mediocre surrounding talent, ability to make himself small to fit through the holes created by a bad offensive line and general elusiveness make him an attractive option. While the sixth round may be the highest Harris goes in an dynasty draft this summer, to me, this pick still has the chance of providing excess value due to his potential.
7.01 – Danny Amendola, WR STL
As injury prone as he is, the seventh round for a potential top ten option will always be worth it to me. Many owners prefer to minimize risk and use bottom feeders to build their potential. My dynasty philosophy has always been to employ high ceiling players. As Amendola’s performance against the Washington Redskins in 2012 shows, he has the potential to be a top ten wide receiver in a PPR league. Sam Bradford has a laser lock on Amendola once he drops back to pass and he even had seven games out of 12 with over nine targets, sporting an impressive 66.3 catch percentage with them.
8.12 – Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
For whatever reason, the Ravens appear to be apprehensive to give Ray Rice a full and total load. Pierce has firmly entrenched himself as Rice’s primary backup and received 126 carries to Rice’s 302, netting an impressive 432 of his 649 yards after contact while averaging 5.2 yards per carry. Pierce is the prototypical young and talented running back to stash in dynasty formats.
9.01 Greg Little, WR CLE
As much as Little has been admonished for dropping easy passes and generally not living up his prodigious potential, I am still a fan. With the Browns bringing in Norv Turner and Rob Chudzinski, I expect Cleveland’s offense to open up and be able to provide some decent WR3 numbers for Little. He was absolutely horrendous in the first five games of the 2012 season, earning overall negative ratings from Pro Football Focus each week. However, he was able to slightly rebound and post six games with a catch percentage over 75% while catching four of his 11 deep targets (which was actually better than Josh Gordon’s 26.1 deep ball catch rate).
10.12 Golden Tate, WR SEA
After arriving in the national conscience as a result of the “fail mary,” Tate actually played really well in a few games. As Russell Wilson improved as a passer and Pete Carroll opened up the offense, Tate’s yards per reception sky rocketed. He also proved to be solid deep threat for Wilson’s cannon arm, not dropping a single deep target and gaining 343 yards on targets 20 yards down the field or more and lead the Seattle wide receivers in PFF’s WR rating.
11.01 Robert Turbin, RB SEA
Another Seahawk whose talent I believe in. Spelling Marshawn Lynch in several blowouts and playing on some third downs, Turbin’s progress from college was evident. Football Guys greats (and good DLF friends) Matt Waldman and Sigmund Bloom were very vocal early on in the season that the Seahawks coaching staff had done a great job with Turbin and recommended him as a high upside handcuff. Not a typically sexy dynasty pick, but with Lynch’s back problems and the way Seattle’s offense is constructed, Turbin could be huge.
12.12 Brent Celek, TE PHI
As an owner who streamed tight ends in re-draft for 2012, Celek was a constantly available and frustrating player. There is no telling who ends up as the quarterback for the Eagles in 2013, but when not asked to block constantly, Celek is a solid TE2 in most formats. Only scoring one touchdown in 2012 really hurt his value, but any sort of progression in that area could change that.
13.01 Chris Ivory, RB NO
Much like DuJuan Harris, Chris Ivory is a personal favorite of mine. A strong and violent runner, Ivory’s inability to stay healthy has killed him over the years, but he is an immensely talented player. Given his status as a restricted free agent, it is not hard to imagine a scenario where Ivory ends up as time carry back who gets looks in the red zone. In 2012, Ivory’s yards after contact average was 4.7, which was better than Adrian Peterson.
14.12 Micheal Bush, RB CHI
At this point, we know who Bush is – a touchdown vulture who will perform well if the running back ahead of him gets injured. He is, however, getting a little on the old side which explains his slide into the 14th round.
15.01 Lestar Jean, WR HOU
The Texans have been trying to fill their second wide out slot basically since the beginning of their franchise. Out of all of the options who have been on the roster, Jean offers the most playmaking potential. I actually debated this on twitter with Chad Scott and a few others and they were on the opposite side of the debate. I believe he flashed real ability when he got his limited opportunities on the field. He’s a pure speculative add this late in the draft, but one with a high upside.
16.12 Travaris Cadet, RB NO
The Saints just flat out know what they are doing with with UDFA running backs. Cadet impressed so much that the team worked with him to allow him to play on special teams and as a running back. With Ivory likely leaving town before 2013, there will be a very small opening for Cadet to see the field. Darren Sproles, Mark Ingram and Pierre Thomas are all very injury prone as a unit, making Cadet worth a roster spot in a deeper fantasy league.
17.01 Terrelle Pryor, QB OAK
Deep dynasty mocks are the best place to call your shot. After doing an extensive film study of Pryor’s first start against the Chargers, I came away very impressed. The way that he improvised when the play broke down and delivered several on-target deep balls showed real potential. Recent reports out of Oakland have stated he has been very humble and open to instruction. That, in combination with his insane ability to create opportunities in the red zone could result in incredible dynasty value.
18.12 Devin Aromashodu, WR MIN
The last four games of the 2009 season, when Aromashadu was with the Chicago Bears, he posted 22 catches for 282 yards and four touchdowns. Since then, he has basically done nothing and was unceremoniously cut by the Bears. This late in a deep draft with guys who know what they are doing, upside and potential are the buzzwords (as you can probably tell by reading my writing for the last few picks). To me, a 6’3 wide receiver who runs a 4.35 40 yard dash and has a 39′ vertical represents a solid investment.
19.01 Tandon Doss, WR BAL
Anquan Boldin is getting older. Jacoby Jones is Jacoby Jones. Joe Flacco has an absolute cannon. Doss caught the two catchable deep targets he received. These were all positive signs for an offense that will have a (hopefully) new look in 2013 with a new coordinator. If the Ravens get away from running isolation routes and get Doss down the field, there could be something here.
20-12 Riley Cooper, WR PHI
Both Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson have become disappointing players. When Cooper has been called up to a starting role, he didn’t disappoint. A bigger wideout who can fight for jump balls, Cooper could end up being useful in Chip Kelly’s new offense.
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Honestly, this mock draft is so embarrassing that I’m surprised that you even posted it for other dynasty enthusiasts to see. This is a prime example of a re-draft mentality in a dynasty format. For starter drafting a 28 yr old AP (who is still a beast) with pick 1.01 is very iffy. If you plan on using him for one season, good luck trading him for a younger stud RB at 29 years old. Rice, McCoy, Martin or Richardson would have been better options. 2nd, way to draft two dinosaurs for your WR1 and 2. 3rd, DuJuan harris in the sixth round is inexcusable for a self proclaimed dynasty expert. 4th, way to wait til round 12 to draft a low end TE2 as your TE1. I come to DLF to read about the do’s and dont’s of dynasty football. This is a don’t
Alright, I’ll start from the top. 1. Adrian Peterson does not fit our conventional wisdom for running backs or athletes. I am not betting against him, though I could agree with an argument suggesting C.J Spiller at 1.01. 2. Never claimed to be an expert, just someone who spends a good majority of their time studying and analyzing football. 3rd. Colston is not a dinosaur and as the piece said, win now team. Roddy White is going no where the next 2 years. 4th. Dujuan Harris is my guy. This is the 5th piece I mentioned him in. I will continue to believe I am justified in selecting him here.
Articles such as this one along with the terrible ranking system this site has, is the reason why I will no longer visit this site. It is very unfortunate since you all have the only website about dynasty leagues that is easy to navigate. I don’t agree with all of Jeff Haverlack rankings but they are the only rankings that make sense. FFG has not updated their rankings since 11/13/12 and is still included in the overall rankings. The only information that I valued from this site was to not think outside of a 3 year window. Thanks for helping me get off the fence once it comes to this site. Joe Flacco does not think this is F’ing Awesome.
I have to agree with brad. This team to me would struggle to compete long term.
Pretty weak IMO! No TE, your top 3 WR’s are either aging or injury prone and you have no insurance plan for Kaepernick! I like Harris, but not in the 6th???
You drafted at least 5 guys that are un-owned in my 10 team 27 man roster ppr league… and this is only 20 rounds!
just for comparison, i was in a recent mock with alot of the older dlf members
ap-1.5-i dont have a problem with someone taking him at 1.1
morris-2.7- thought was your best pick at 2.12
roddy-4.8- 3.1 seems a little high but again no problem with pick
colston-6.3- i didnt understand your ppr steal comment, dont consider colston a better ppr player then non ppr
kaep-7.5- this was after the nfc championship, 4.1 was crazy high and the worst of your picks
would have been nice to have a link to draft, so we could see the flow of it
There’s a link to the draft just before the pick analysis
agreed, AP is absolutely first rd material I just thought there was much younger talent there with same upside. And right on with kaepernick, I thought 4.12 was too high as well. But I left it alone because given his upside and age I thought it was more of a personal judgement call. The problem is his backup is Terrell Pryor. Not sure situation with Palmer but Pryor is still probably a year out from starting, if he even gets there.
I’d MUCH rather have TRich than AP. As I mentioned above, I think AP is a screaming sell right now. His value seems to be in the stratosphere. Everyone is rightfully amazed at his recovery from ACL surgery, but he is still going to be 28 next year and I don’t think he was born on Mt Olympus. Ladainian Tomlinson had a massive drop in production in a very short period of time. If the floor starts to fall out on AP, whomever owns him will see his value fall faster than Enron stock. Dynasty owners are, at some level, skeptical about older running backs, and the minute AP shows signs of slowing down, his value will fall very far from 1.01. By then, it will be too late. TRich should get an owner near AP production, but 6+ years of elite production. That’s a bet I would take over AP.
He said he was trying to win now. Ouch, hang in there Davis Mattek.
To be honest, I was really, really underwhelmed with your team, and I guess the comments pretty much validated my thought process. Where are your building blocks? You have a bunch of guys who can or will be replaced very soon. There is no Gronk/Graham at TE to have a stud for 10 years, no Calvin, AJG, Julio, Dez type stud at WR to rely on with that production for 7 years, Alfred Morris might just be a solid pick but honestly with the core around him you have I question that pick also because he’s another guy who could be replaced soon.
Peterson I have no problems with, though I’d rather have someone like AJG for 10 years then Peterson for 3-4 personally. I want a building block with the 1.01 that I can rely on for a long time.
After round 4 I’m not sure what happened. Colston I have no major gripes about, solid pick, but Djaun Harris in the 6th?! Seriously? After that I would have liked to think there was at least 1 guy you could rely on but mostly just fliers.
As a whole I just don’t see any key players here that in 3 years you would still feel comfortable with starting. IMO you can’t have an entire team like that. Do you really want to rely on the rookie draft the next 3 years to replace your entire starting line-up? For me if you have to rely that heavily on the rookie draft shortly after you didn’t do such a great job in the initial draft.
You’ll be playing catchup at TE for years, and any picks you use to try and upgrade there is going to put you in a deeper hole trying to replace everyone else. Just m/o.
DuJuan Harris is a pick in the 6th that I will defend until death. With AP, Morris, Harris and Chris Ivory, I believe I have 4 starting RB’s. You guys of course don’t have to agree with me, but that is what dynasty football is about. Personal player evaluation and belief.
I respect your willingness to write about this mock and share it with everyone. It’s not easy to spend time and effort to write something like this, then get excoriated online and have to remain diplomatic about it. Tough job for sure, but it goes with the territory of being a write, I suppose.
That said, I understand you like Dujuan Harris. Personally, I’m not seeing it. His numbers spread out over 6 games are 62 carries, 257 yards rushing, 4.1 YPC, 4 TDs, 7 receptions for 70 yards. That’s an average of 9.5 points per game. Those points are tilted by those four TDs, and those can be hard to predict. There are also reports that GB only views him as a change of pace back, and I think the writing was already on the wall even before those reports floated on rotoworld. Looking at players available after Harris, I would have much rather picked Rudolph, TY Hilton, Josh Gordon, Denarius Moore, Kendall Wright, Lamar Miller, Alshon Jeffery, Vick Ballard, Bernard Pierce, Little, Vernon Davis, Golden Tate, or even Shane Vereen. Heck, I’d stick take Gore or Steven Jackson at that spot over Harris. I totally understand trying to take a prospect you like early, if you believe in him. But, I think you also can’t take a sleeper too soon, otherwise it’s just not good value. I would be stunned if Harris when that early in many mocks. Lastly, Jarrett mentioned in the DLF podcast that his prediction would be whomever GB picks up at RB would be the most overdrafted player in dynasty, and I agree with him. Thing is, I bet that player won’t even be Harris, but I guess we will find out soon enough.
I really appreciate the thoughtful criticism and understand the viewpoint. I think that Green Bay has wasted so many picks and cycled through so many players at running back that I believe they will give Harris a shot. As I outlined in my Harris piece last week, they run enough to support an RB2, and that is something I believe Harris is capable of being.
I guess for me, where is the validation from Green Bay he is their guy? You can’t waste a 6th round pick on a flier. Dajuan Harris is an end of the draft type of pick. Has Green Bay came out and said they are going to make him their lead guy? Next year you have a platoon full of backs who are all underwhelming in GB with nobody guaranteed anything.
And let’s say he does get the majority of touches next year, what about beyond? Do you really feel confident that they won’t take a RB they like in the 1st and easily replace him? You have to have some sort of validity to take an unknown that early. GB hasn’t stated he will be the starter next year so why do you think he(or Ivory for that chance) will be a starter?
For comparison sake, where was Lamar Miller taken out of curiousity? I am not sure, but I would be willing to bet the difference between where you took him and where Miller went is a stark contrast, and Miller has draft status on his side which teams lend to give those guys ample opportunity to win the job, and he also has numerous articles leading you to believe he will be the starter next year.
I don’t see any such signs with Harris, he could turn into Arian Foster, but taking him in the 6th on the hope that he does is a risk that can leave you with a massive hole if it doesn’t work out, and for me personally, I wouldn’t be interested in taking a flier so soon when starting spots are still being filled.
It appears that you didn’t read my Harris piece from last week. dynastyleaguefootball.com/2013/dynasty-spotlight-dujuan-harris There is the link. I have stuff on him dating back to November. I have dug as deep into both the numbers, game film and articles coming out of Green Bay as well as listening to McCarthy and co. speak to fully believe in my judgement. Do you have to agree with me? No. I don’t think Harris has Arian Foster potential at all, but he does have RB2 potential.
I think this article is perhaps taking a bit too much flak. I read it simply as a ‘here’s my take on a few guys I drafted’, and enjoyed the different slant. For instance i dont own a few of these players in any leagues, was refreshing to read a positive spin on them. In the recent DLF mocks there were very few ‘steals’ due to the calibre of drafter.
Appreciate the kind words, my man.
Figured Davis would take a lot of heat on this. The article was simply put out to show what a team could look like taking a win-now mentality, while attempting to mix in a few youngsters. This isn’t a post to illustrate the best team, worst team or anything else – it’s simply a case study on what a team would look like taking this strategy, while taking an opportunity to highlight some players.
I was fully expecting heat as well, all of which I will address when I’m done with other work set out for the day
I can understand taking a ‘win now’ mentality. But, problem is, I don’t think this team can compete for a title, or even a playoff position. TE is terrible, Kaep is a big risk as a QB1 with no fall-back, the WRs are okay but not great and the best young RB on this team is Alfred Morris, who might end up unemployed once Shanahan falls in love with another running back. Maybe it would work out with Morris, but I don’t see this team winning now at all. I think it finishes middle of the pack then crashes in 1-2 years once all the older players are done.
Kaep is not a big risk to me, even a little bit. Certainly more valuable in a dynasty format than Tom Brady or Drew Brees. Anyone who is criticizing the Morris pick based on Shanahanigans didn’t watch football in 2012 and hasn’t studied Shanahan RB usage. Once he finds a guy, he sticks with him until he breaks.
No way is he more valuable than Tom Brady or Brees, especially with your win now, 3 year window approach. Let me tell you friend your pick of Devin Aromashodu, might be the worst pick ever. I live in Minneapolis, and he isn’t good now, and he will never be good. The Vikings have some of the more pedestrian WR in the game, outside of Percy, and this guy barely played.
Please note that he took Kaep over Stafford and Ryan. Again a judgement call but IMO I would take either of those guys over Kaepernick.
Before I became too busy to be an active participant in the mock draft, here were my first 10 picks:
1.11 Arian Foster
2.02 Brandon Marshall
3.11 Jordy Nelson
4.02 DeMarco Murray
5.11 Matthew Stafford
6.02 Wes Welker
7.11 Mike Williams
8.02 Jermaine Gresham
9.11 Steven Jackson
10.02 Ryan Broyles
Now that is a felchin’ team right there! Author, take notes.
this is what I would expect (anatomy of a mock draft) would look like. This is a team that is competitive now and has some foundation players to build around. Mattek should have used seahawks506′s draft for his piece.
That’s more like it. Nice draft.
I generally don’t like building around RBs to begin with due to their short shelf life. Then you take a 28 year old RB with a reconstructed ACL… Shanahan’s RB… two aging WRs… and an unproven QB who has started only 8 games. In a startup draft I want at least two cornerstones locked down for the next 5+ years. I don’t see any on this team.
I think Kaep has proven himself. Starting in the superbowl, broke the NFL record for rushing yards, ect.
Not to pile on, but I agree with most posters on this draft. Granted, it’s just a mock, so in a true start-up dynasty draft, things might look vastly different. I’ve seen mocks where players are taken above their actual ADP just to see how it impacts a team or effects the flow of the draft, so maybe some of that is happening here.
That said, I’m having trouble liking most of the players in this mock.
I would not take AP at 1.01, but I can’t be too critical of this pick. I would however look at Ladainian Tomlinson as one example. LT was as dominant as any fantasy football player until he turned 29, then the wheels fell off. While everyone is riding the high of AP’s successful season, I think it is the perfect time to sell him for a younger option like TRich. I think TRich could be in line for a huge year with Norv Turner as OC. The last thing I would do is take AP 1.01. I would sell him based on the euphoria of his huge season. Did anyone want to sell LT back in 2007 when he had nearly 1500 yards rushing, 18 TDs and 52 receptions, 426 yards receiving? That was his age 28 season. Once he hit 29, his numbers dropped, and completely crashed at 30. It seems to me everyone thinks AP is an exception, but that is easy to say until the floor falls out on him.
I also don’t get the Dujuan Harris pick in the sixth round. There had to be better value than that available.
Why wait so long and grab Celek in round 12? Celek is the TE24 on PFF. Granted, maybe Chip Kelly gets him a boost, but that’s hardly a guarantee, and can any team win with such a huge hole at TE? Hard to imagine.
I would also be concerned about having Kaepernick and Pryor as the only QBs on this roster. I would love to have Kaep as a QB2 with huge potential, but rolling with him based on a small sample size of games as your QB1, with no other back-up solutions, is a big risk.
That said, again it’s a mock draft, so the results might not be replicated in a true start-up dynasty draft.
Perhaps the name of the aticle should read, “Dynasty draft stategies: How to draft a rebuilding team”. It looks like an autodrafted team, only worse.
Or how about, “Autopsy of a Mock Draft”. And no, that’s not implying that you killed it-at least not in a good way. I know, tough crowd. I’ve learned long ago that flattery will get you nowhere.
Love the debate here! That’s what the community is all about!
I honestly don’t know why I continue to read some of the articles.. The quality has gone down the tube. It seems more effort has been placed on “entertaining” articles than articles with actual insight, or dynasty analysis. I don’t come here to read a fantasy satire, or a Mathew Berry comedic relief garbage piece. Get back to what the people what! This could of been an interesting article, but instead it turned into a “what not to do in a dynasty startup.”
I attempted to reach out to you via Email, but it didn’t go through. I’d love to get your feedback on our content as I see comments like these as opportunities for us to connect with our community. Please send me a DM in the forum and we can talk.
Thanks!
dlf_KenK
I’m not certain I’m understanding the problem? Even if you disagree with Davis’ selections, he did a great job explaining why he made the picks he did, as well as present a brief analysis of each player chosen. If nothing else, you might’ve learned a few new things about guys like Ivory, Pryor, Doss and Cooper.
The diversity of opinions amongst members is what makes a community great. Some may have liked this article, others may not have. Some like Coke, others like Pepsi. But occasional critical backlash is to be expected when you have a website constantly producing non-generic content.
Golden Tate, “actually played well in a few games,” that is insightful, and worth a round 11 pick? He is the 3rd best WR on a run first team, who will be drafting a WR in the upcoming draft.
3rd best wide out? PFF has him as their highest rated wideout for the year.
Doug Baldwin and Sydney Rice, both better in my opinion.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I disagree with you, and it seems that the numbers do as well.
You really have no clue what your talking about.
Gonna have to respectfully disagree. Have a nice day, man.
Tate sandwiched between guys like LaFell and Givens, and you think that’s a terrible pick? I’d take Tate over either of those guys as well. You’re entitled to you opinion POS, but the Seahawks don’t agree with your take on Tate versus Baldwin either.
I don’t own Tate, but think his value at this time next year will have increased.
The Seahawks passing game was a work in progress the first half of the season. When Wilson scrambles, Tate is excellent at coming back to the QB. I think they pass a bit more in 2013 as Wilson continues to develop. Tate at least equals his numbers from this year, and likely sees a slight bump.
Disagreement is great, but because you don’t agree with someone’s opinion doesn’t mean they don’t know what they’re talking about.
I obviously agree with you. Tate is who Wilson looks at when the play breaks down and Wilson’s ability to keep the play alive means there will be opportunities for Tate to make plays down the field.
It doesn’t mean they do either. Baldwin was hurt in 2012, he was better than Tate in 2011. As far as my comment of Davis not knowing what he is talking about, I was referring to his statement Tate was and is the highest rated Seahawks on DLF’s rankings. Clearly Davis doesn’t even realize Sydney Rice is a Seahawk.
I didn’t say DLF, I said PFF, or pro football focus, the lead provider of advanced NFL statistics. They have him as the highest rated Seahawks WR.
I think it’s a bit harsh to say “The quality has gone down the tube” based on your opinion of one article. DLF does an amazing job of putting out quality articles on a daily basis that features great analysis/content…and for FREE (This is a Members Corner piece). I think we can all agree that we enjoy all forms of criticsm regarding a particular writeup, but as a whole, DLF will continue to be an industry leader because of the quality writers it has. Although, everyone is entitled to their opinion, of course.
I like the content and I think DLF does a great job in posting quality articles. Not everyone will agree with each article. If it creates stimulating discussion, then an article is still a success. The learning opportunities are from both articles and comments from DLF users/staff, as exemplified in this thread. I would hope most DLF users would agree this site is very valuable and certainly the best I’ve seen for dynasty football addicts.
Well put, Scott!
I’m with chad. As a brand new DLFer, I think the content on this site is amazing. Perhaps the best on the web. Its been about 2 weeks ago that- I really dug in to some of the material and its second to none. Not to mention some of the better writers out there, that really know their stuff. Dynasty being a small part of the whole fantasy world, its great that there is a site that is dedicated to us dynasty enthusiasts. Everybody at DLF is doing a great job so keep up the good work. I am officially addicted to DLF.
Agreed! DLF should add a rehab section for us addicts. lol
My name is Derek… I am a DLFaholic!!!
I love DLF. Not a fan of this mock, but relax and enjoy your championship trophies right now. That’s what you all have right? Give the guy a pass and move on to the next great article they put out.
Harris, Dujuan, Little, Celek, Tate – Jesus. What were you thinking.
Harris is my guy. Everyone who passes on him in Dynasty and redraft in 2013 will be kicking themselves.
Feel kinda bad for the guy for getting ripped a new one by the DLF community after putting hard work into explaining the way he drafted and the reasoning behind it…
This isn’t someone that’s a permanent writer at DLF, this is someone that enjoys DLF like the rest of us… If you feel like putting your neck on the line, submit an article as well
Regardless, kudos to the writer for submitting this.
Appreciate the kind words, man. Ill obviously stand by what I wrote and did, regardless of the opposition.
Alright guys, here is the deal. When this draft took place, I knew that I would be writing about it either on DLF or on my own website. I specifically chose players that I liked, had personally scouted, researched their advance metrics, ect. DuJuan Harris in the 6th is a perfect pick for me. I believe in Chris Ivory’s skill set and believe he leaves the Saints for a starting job in 2013. Roddy White is an elite NFL receiver and has continually punished those who don’t believe in his skill set. Marques Colston is a consistent bet to be a top 15 PPR wide receiver and with Sean Payton returning, has a higher upside. I really like the upcoming NFL Tight End Draft class, which is why I felt comfortable taking Celek as a stop gap. Greg Little is another guy that I believed in coming out of college and believe that my faith will be returned. I did draft this team to ‘win now’, but I also drafted it in order to write about guys that I find intriguing with significant amounts of upset. The Terrelle Pryor pick, for example. Had I not sat down and watched his first game through twice and written a film study article on it, I probably wouldn’t have selected him. I’m not suggesting that you do what I do or even that this is a great time. The piece was meant as a way to extrapolate my thought process on the Dynasty futures of guys that I liked. Do with that what you will.
Be honest, you were you late for the draft and your team was autodrafted using Brad Evans’ yahoo rankings, wasn’t it? I kid.
If I were aiming for a win now team in ppr, I would have targeted guys like Welker or Sproles in the 4th and 5th and come back to Kaep/Russell Wilson/RG3 in the 6th.
It is important to note that no one here is a fortune teller, so don’t let them ride you on the Harris or Pierce picks. I took Spiller/Ridley in the 6th/7th round last year in a startup and I was almost laughed out of the building. I can appreciate that you are willing to really take a chance on players who you like.
I think the ‘no one is a fortune teller’ aspect is something that is pretty key to dynasty start up’s. appreciate the kind words.
So it appears from a quick glance that this is the Mock 1 used in Ryan’s Dynasty ADP data. If so, you took:
Roddy at least a round earlier than all but one other mocks
Kaep 1-2 full rounds early
Colston about a round early
Harris 3-4 rounds early
Even if I don’t like the picks, I think you could have gotten better value. Probably gotten Kaep with the 6.12 and Harris with the 9.1.
With those guys sliding down you could have gotten someone else at 4.12 spot who would basically replace Turbin at the 8.12 or Little at the 9.1
I certainly think you are right. Obviously, if I had ADP date, I could have made some different picks. However, a starting lineup of kap, ad, Morris, Harris, ivory, roddy Colston and celeb is nothing to laugh at. Maybe I’m alone in that consideration.
I don’t think I’m really saying anything new when I would agree that this draft looks a little weird to me, especially given what the draft in totality looked like. I don’t know if many of these choices are ones that I agree with are ones that I would have made if I were drafting to compete now or in more of a long term setting both. But I do enjoy the reasoning behind it even if I don’t agree with it, and I like the way Derek is defending himself as well.
I liken this to a real GM in the NFL doing things that both fans and insiders question- look at what people thought about the Seahawks/Pete Carroll/John Schneider have done over the past couple of seasons. This previous draft class was ridiculed by most, and it looks rosy now. The oddly haired Mel Kiper Jr. recently redid his draft graded and they were among is most improved. The same analogy can be drawn with Phil Emery in Chicago. He had a great press conference when he fired Lovie Smith where he went into great detail many of the personnel and draft moves he made last year with reason and statistics. It was a phenomenal behind the scenes look as to why he is making the moves he does. It still means he could be wrong, or make the wrong player moves with the right strategy, but at least he has a plan. So too does Derek- right or wrong, it remains to be seen.
I am curious to see if you would alter your draft after free agency and the 2013 NFL draft occur when some of the more uncertain decisions (Harris, Kaepernick, Little, Celek, Ivory, Cadet, Pryor, and Aromashodu) if and when some of the depth charts are a bit more settled. I think this dovetails pretty well with the recent poll about when to hold a dynasty startup draft, and why August won by a wide margin- it makes reaches seem less extreme as they do now. Good luck Derek- I hope you get to do another draft in August that gets published so we can see how different your roster looks!
It’s Davis, but thank you. I would tend to agree with your overall points. I was making bets on talent I believed in. I think that’s the best way to approach these early season drafts.
Sorry about the name- bad combo of autocorrect and my own typing error…
You took Roddy White over Andrew Luck when you needed QB? Kaepernick over Matt Ryan and/or Stafford even after Luck’s gone? Colston over Torrey Smith and/or Blackmon? Amendola over Josh Gordon? You let Sam Bradford get past you at the rd 12-13 snake when you had no backup and your ‘starter’ is barely proven. PLEASE join my league because this is by far one of the worst mocks I’ve ever seen.
boomer knows whats up
In a PPR league, I’d rather have amendola. I prefer Pryor’s upside to Bradford’s mediocrity . Kap is a top 5 dynasty QB in my opinion. Running ability with a huge cannon. Hit me up with an invite to a league, even if you think I’m dead money, I’m down to join new leagues.
“view chris ivory as a starter” Next joke.
Wrote a whole piece on him for my site. Think he leaves as an RFA and ends up starting, you don’t have to agree, just stating my logic.
Note to the rest of the community. Ignore Davis’ work from here on out. This article proves it.
Think that’s a little harsh, mon frere.
Even though it wasn’t a popular strategy, this article sure garnered alot of buzz. I haven’t seen this many comments/debates in an article for awhile-it’s actually quite entertaining. It kind of has a Skip Bayless angle to it. Maybe you’re onto something. You have definitely handled yourself like a champ in the face of all of this criticism.
Can’t believe you said the S word! I hate that guy. It’s a common sociological and communicative occurrence that anything outside of groupthink generates heavy opposition (communication minor, currently in school), so I’m not personally offended by any of the responses. I’ll keep writing my stuff and playing fantasy football how I believe it should be played. Thanks for the response man.
i think there where a lot of bold picks in there, but after reading that you went into the mock, with the mind set of pretty much picking the guys you did, i kinda think you did a dis-service to the other mockers. when i join a mock i want it to be like you where drafting a team for real. that way i can gauge where some of the mid teir guys and younger guys are going. i got the feeling you did the mock to write an article and not an article on a mock, if you get what im saying. might not be what you did but i kinda got that impression when you said,”I specifically chose players that I liked, had personally scouted, researched their advance metrics, ect.” so really it sounds like you wouldnt have drafted that way if you werent writting this article. like you had a list of 30 guys you personally scouted and ranked them, then just chose from that list while ignoring anyone not on that list.
To some extent I see your point, but I still feel fine competing with this team and love the starting lineup. The ‘my guys’ statement was more reflective of Harris, Ivory and Pierce.
that is how it seemed to me as well. It should have been an article on sleepers or up and coming talent, minus the few vets he drafted….well put Henley
Rounds 1, 2, and 3 are OK for a ‘Win Now’ strategy… but after that you pretty much were grabbing players who might fit on a ‘could be something’ list. You don’t ‘Win Now’ with most of your team being ‘could be somethings’.
The ‘Win Now’ concept is to draft players to win the big game in the first 2-3 seasons of the league. After that you sell off your aging studs for draft picks and prospective players to teams who are moving up and looking to win the big game… while you go into rebuilding mode. It’s a win-early-rebuild-for-future idea. Other teams will grab a bunch of young prospects in the start-up draft and plan on losing for a few seasons as they build their monster team; a lose-now-build-a-dynasty idea.
What you did was what the third class of teams do… grab a patchwork of studs, prospects, and likely nobodies. These teams seem to place in the middle every year. Which means no top draft picks. Not enough studs to win enough games and not enough prospects to build on… and too much junk taking up roster space (but you keep them because YOU like them for what they may become in YOUR mind).
Solid criticism. However, I wouldn’t have made the selections I did if I thought DuJuan Harris, Chris Ivory, Turbin, Pierce, we’re likely nobodies. I did really appreciate this response, however,
These comments are pretty harsh. I’m with the mob mostly in that it would never be one of my dynasty drafts… AP and Alf Morris in particular are huge reaches/gambles in my opinion; both for very different reasons. i also dont like the harris pick but i get it he’s your guy… but you probably could have gotten him way later.
good luck with that team i do agree dynasty is about different approaches. i appreciate and respect you sharing yours… ill have to invite you to my next start up.
also that being said if its an all out win now team? id have looked for a stronger QB1 like brees or brady… where did they go? could you have gotten one of them over alf morris or your third rounder?
To me, it seems that the general consensus here really underestimates Kaepernick and his potential. Harbaugh and co have built a great offense around him, the rushing yards give him a great week to week floor and he is only going to get better. Thanks for stating your criticisms respectfully, though.
I don’t think I’m underestimating Kaep so much as I’m not ready to anoint him after only a handful of NFL starts.
As for respect– I think it’s important to respect people going out on a limb to post opinions.
The other point I wanted to make is about AP btw- I know we’ve all universally decided he’s a different breed than most but the kid had was 370 some odd touches in 2012? More? Usually that alone would have us projecting a drop off moving forward…. but throw in his age AND his injury last year and it seems clear to me that 1.1 is a serious gamble on him.
I guess I feel sort of the same way about Alf Morris as I do Kaep except Alf has a whole season under his belt– but he plays for Shannahan and I still believe Helu is uber talented and will come back healthy and his talents will demand a large role.
Under rating Alfred Morris because of Shanahan’s supposedly unpredictable nature is going to keep Morris drastically undervalued. Kid just broke the Redskins single season rushing record, scored double digit td’s, and people are talking about Roy Helu?!? Shanahan values durability and staying on the field. Every trend in history shows that. Criticize the other picks, but there is no argument against Morris at that spot in my mind.
As you said differences of opinions is the lifeblood of a great dynasty league– maybe I WILL invite you to my next start up– not cause I think you’d be a bad player or a mark or anything– but you seem like a wild card owner who drafts and plays unconventionally… that sh@t makes a league more fun. like i said the team you built is VERY different than any I would or have built but you clearly have a squad with a window to compete right now. I just personally do see them as lights out hand them the trophy because they are so win now stacked.
I certainly don’t think that this a lights out team and there are picks I may change in retrospect.
This entire league set up is absolutely ridiculous. Mandating more starting rb’s than receivers is unthinkable. In case you haven’t watched the NFL in 5 years, teams NEVER have nore than 1 rb on the field and many times have 3-4 receivers.Any league that starts as many or more rb’s than wr’s is completely illogical and is doing nothing more than artificially inflating rb value. It isnt 1995 anymore. FF is about more than running backs in 2013. The wr and rb requirements should be flipped.
That was a misprint. It should be 1 RB, 1 WR, 3 FLEX.
Kaepernick ” broke the NFL record for rushing yards?” At 415 yards in the regular season, I’m not so sure about that. Michael Vick (for instance) had 1039 rushing yards in 16 games played in the 06-07 season. I don’t dislike your article because, no matter how/why/when you draft someone, it’s always interesting to hear an explanation for doing so. And as is obvious, it leads to some good debate. But with that being said, you still have to check your facts, or at least be more careful about what you write and be accurate.
There are only a handful of Dynasty specific resources out there and of those I must say DLF is the best. Dynasty will only continue to grow in popularity, especially with long standing groups of friends who enjoy football and growing their teams. When I first joined DLF I was really impressed with the straightforward/fact based articles, but as someone else mentioned, it has become a little more flair and a little less facts/data of late. I understand guest writers, members corner, paid writers, free content, paid content and all of that good stuff but I don’t want to have to weed through the qualifications of a writer before I even read the piece. Here is to the hope that DLF returns to offering high-quality content for years to come.
I was of course speaking about him breaking the single game rushing yards record.
Adrian Peterson had 296 in a game. Unless, OF COURSE, you also meant to say by a QB.
We all knew what he meant the first time, Jason. You should make a conscious effort to be more respectful those who provide you a free service. Unless, OF COURSE, you want to sound like a correcting douchebag.
Oh no, Here comes a 4 paragraph diatribe on how I forgot to use the word “of” in the last comment.
+1
I, OF COURSE, knew what he meant as well. I would be stunned if anyone other than Jason did not…
PS Good Article Davis. Bad draft, but still a good article and worth the read.
I’m actually a paying member of this site John. As such, I believe I have a right to comment on how the content could be improved. I’m sorry if I feel that writers should clarify their statements, even in a free section, on a site with such high expectations. By the way, you forgot to use the word “of.”
Also, I wasn’t trying to be an ass and pile on this guy. I was just unaware that Kaep broke the single game rushing record by a qb.
I shouldn’t have assumed that was common knowledge. But, I think my point about Kap proving himself still remains.
Also, in the article I specifically state “record breaking rushing in the divisional round”. Have a nice day, Jason. Hope all is well.
I still think he has quite a bit to prove but, tomorrow is his time to add to his short but successful resume. Hope all is well with you as well.
While reading the mock I felt like his draft was abysmal aside from the Morris pick. Glad to see I’m not the only one. The Kaepernick and Harris pick just make 0 sense to me. I recognize that you think they are studs, and that’s fine, take them. But Harris in the 6th, when you could easily have taken him 3 rounds later is absurd to me. I also consider Kaepernick and Wilson in the same tier, but you took Kaepernick 3 rounds earlier.
Wow, you’re getting crushed for this one. Have to say while I would have made a different decision in every round except for ALF, I still learned a couple things. I get you wanted to talk about certain guys just looks like you had to reach too often to get them and makes the draft look odd. Kind of sounds like when you got the assignment to write on the mock draft you doubled down and made it Davis’ early offseason sleeper list. In any event the comments made for an entertaining break at work and you handled the criticism well. Maybe give it another go with a feb mock.
This article sucked. It shouldn’t have been allowed to be posted to the wall inside of a gas station stall.