Preseason Prediction Review

Ken Kelly Posted On January 24, 2013

jamaal_charles

We love the so-called off-season – we take this time to reflect back on what we wrote earlier in the year and also look forward to great events like the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft. After working hard to produce over 330 articles last off-season, we finally took a look forward to the 2012 Fantasy Football year and made our annual fantasy predictions back in August. Some were good and some were, well, you’ll see. We compiled several opinions from the DLF Team and created this list of predictions for last year. The categories were as follows:

Fantasy MVP
Fantasy Rookie of the Year
Most Overvalued Dynasty Player
Most Undervalued Dynasty Player
Fantasy Sleeper
Best Dynasty Buy
Best Dynasty Sell
Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

Let’s evaluate the good, the bad and the ugly because we’re never afraid to put our money where our mouth is.

Fantasy MVP

Those receiving votes: Calvin Johnson; Aaron Rodgers; Tom Brady; LeSean McCoy

Best Choice – Calvin Johnson, WR DET

It was pretty easy to choose Aaron Rodgers. After all, he was coming off a year where he threw for 4,643 yards, 45 touchdowns and just six interceptions. With all his weapons back, some expected a minor letdown, but nothing major – they got just that. Meanwhile, Johnson torched Jerry Rice’s all-time receiving record with 122 catches for 1,964 yards. Not bad.

Worst Choice: LeSean McCoy, RB PHI

McCoy was coming off a monster season where he put up over 1,600 total yards and scored twenty touchdowns. Unfortunately, the Eagles totally fell apart, McCoy got injured and Bryce Brown emerged as a possible future time share candidate. In the end, the 840 rushing yards and five total touchdowns killed many dynasty teams.

Fantasy Rookie of the Year

Those receiving votes: Russell Wilson; Robert Griffin III; Justin Blackmon; Kendall Wright; Andrew Luck

Best Choice: Russell Wilson, QB SEA

Well, you can’t say we don’t take our chances around here. Someone who won’t be named publicly (ahem), chose Wilson and subsequently said you have to “go big or go home.” Wilson rewarded that anonymous writer (ahem) with an electric rookie season that featured 3,118 passing yards, 489 rushing yards, 30 total touchdowns and just ten interceptions. I (I mean that mystery writer) felt Wilson had what it took to be a dynamic play maker, but nobody honestly saw this kind of a season coming.

Worst Choice: Kendall Wright, WR TEN

What I loved about the choices is that none of us took the easy road and picked Trent Richardson. In the end, Wright performed the worst of the candidates, but still looks nothing like a bust. On the season, Wright posted 64 catches for 626 yards and four touchdowns, showing he was worthy of a first round rookie pick. The only problem he had was the competition he faced in this category – the 2012 rookie class is going to be legendary.

Most Overvalued Dynasty Player

Those receiving votes: Rob Gronkowski; DeMarco Murray; AJ Green; Jordy Nelson; Andre Johnson; Isaiah Pead; Ryan Mathews

Best Choice: Ryan Mathews, RB SD

Well, there were some pretty good choices (including a great prediction on Pead), but Mathews takes the cake. After being anointed as the “next,” he was a huge disappointment this season. At the beginning of the year, his owners could have never imagined him only putting up one touchdown and just over 700 rushing yards. He’s proven to have major injury risk and his yards per carry average sunk all the way down to 3.8. With a new coaching regime in town, it’s really tough to project the future for Mathews. What a buzzkill.

Worst Choice: AJ Green, WR CIN

The reason Green was selected wasn’t because he was perceived to be a bad player, but one of our writers felt he was simply being taken a tad too high in start-up drafts. After a dominant season that saw Green post a touchdown in nine consecutive games, the cat’s out of the bag.

Most Undervalued Dynasty Player

Those receiving votes: Percy Harvin; Fred Davis; Aaron Hernandez; Josh Freeman; Kenny Britt; Steven Jackson; Matt Ryan

Best Choice: Steven Jackson, RB STL

Again, there were a lot of different selections that could win here, but Jackson was being given away for pennies in a lot of dynasty leagues last off-season. After all, the Rams had drafted Isaiah Pead and S-Jax was right on the cusp of the magic age of 30. Instead, Jackson posted his eighth straight 1,000 yard rushing season and added another 321 receiving yards to go along with a handful of scores. While he may indeed retire or move on from St. Louis, he gave his owners yet another solid year.

Worst Choice: Kenny Britt, WR TEN

His 45 catches, 589 yards and four touchdowns weren’t terrible, but in short, the same maturity issues are still very, very relevant. He may never be trusted at this point.

Fantasy Sleeper

Those receiving votes: Alfred Morris; Armon Binns; Rob Housler; LaVon Brazill; Alex Green; Kendall Hunter; Rod Streater

Best Choice: Alfred Morris, RB WAS

This one wasn’t close. After being an afterthought in most rookie drafts, Morris exploded for 1,613 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. If not for Adrian Peterson having a monster season, he would have led the league in rushing. If he doesn’t play for Washington, he gets much more credit – I think he deserves it anyway and he’s squarely on my “buy list” if you have someone in your league who doesn’t believe he’ll stick.

Worst Choice: Armon Binns, WR CIN

Binns was a hot candidate to be the second option across from AJ Green. Instead, he had 24 catches for 277 yards and just one score. Oh yeah, and he was actually cut by the Bengals and picked up off the street by the Dolphins. Yikes!

Best Dynasty Buy

Those receiving votes: Jamaal Charles; Mike Williams; Greg Little; Mike Wallace; Jacquizz Rodgers; Chris Johnson; Matt Ryan

Best Choice: Mike Williams, WR TB

There were a ton of great choices here including Charles, Johnson and Ryan, but Williams could have been had for next to nothing in many leagues last off-season. After a monster rookie campaign, Williams had a down year in 2011, but much of that was simply because of his lack of scores (11 as a rookie and three as a second year player). Tampa Mike bounced back this year with 63 catches, 996 yards and nine touchdowns. While he’ll likely never be the WR1 many hoped, he still looks like he could be a decent WR2 with room to grow.

Worst Choice: Greg Little, WR CLE

I still haven’t really understood the hype that surrounds this guy, but at least it’s dying down now. After a decent rookie year where he posted 61 catches for 647 yards and two touchdowns, Little followed it up with 53 catches, 647 yards and four touchdowns in 2012. It certainly seems like Josh Gordon is the better talent in Cleveland and for the likely price you had to pay, Little wasn’t a great buy.

Best Dynasty Sell

Those receiving votes: Roddy White; DeMarco Murray; Evan Royster; Cam Newton; Doug Martin; Brandon Marshall; Andre Johnson

Best Choice: DeMarco Murray, RB DAL

For what you could have received, Murray is the pretty easy choice here since Ryan Mathews wasn’t listed. On the year, Murray posted 663 rushing yards and four touchdowns. He was good when he played, but he only performed in ten games. There are major concerns about his durability and he didn’t take the next step as so many hoped he would.

Worst Choice: Brandon Marshall, WR CHI

Marshall’s value was off the charts when he was reunited with Jay Cutler in Chicago. After all, when they played together in Denver, Marshall was a target monster. Many thought Marshall had little to no chance of putting up “Denver-like” numbers with the weather he’d have to play in and the offensive line giving Cutler little time to throw, but he proved he could in the end. You could say he had a decent year with 118 catches, 1,508 yards and 11 touchdowns. He didn’t put up “Denver-like” numbers – he was better.

Fantasy Comeback Player of the Year

Those receiving votes: Peyton Manning; Chris Johnson; Steve Smith (STL); Danny Amendola; Jamaal Charles; Peyton Hillis

Best Choice: Peyton Manning, QB DEN

It’s truly amazing what he was able to accomplish. Who else could take an entire year off, join a brand new team, then throw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns, all while posting his second best quarterback rating of his career. What can you even compare that to? That would be like a policeman taking a year off and coming back as Robocop or Adrian Peterson taking a year off and coming back as, well, himself.

Worst Choice: Peyton Hillis, RB KC

We’ll just end the article there to protect this person’s identity.

So, who do you think some of the candidates will be next year for MVP, sleeper or comeback player of the year? Any thoughts on the best buys or sells in dynasty leagues? How about the most overrated or underrated players? Post your thoughts in the comments below.

Author
Recent Posts

Ken Kelly

Co-Founder at DynastyLeagueFootball

Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK