The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I’m weak at QB (Cutler, Locker, Foles, and Pryor) and another team has Brees, Luck and R.Wilson.  I’m considering offering David Wilson and the 1.02 for one of them.  But with the recent success rate of QBs, taking two of them in the first gives me a pretty good chance of hitting on one of them.  Thoughts? – Brad in Iowa

As a side note it’s interesting how many questions I received this week about Russell Wilson.  He is surely a hot topic right now.

Brad, I like your question because it touches on a number of different topics that are critical for dynasty success.

First off, I don’t agree with your assessment that by using two firsts on quarterbacks that you have a “pretty good chance of hitting on one.”  We are early in the pre-draft process but my take as of today is that none of these quarterbacks grade out to be an NFL star or a fantasy stalwart.  One of the draft analysts I respect highly (Shane P. Hallam) told me recently that he thinks Ryan Tannehill would be the clear cut QB1 in the NFL draft if he was coming out today.  If that’s the case, you’d be better off using one of your firsts to get him.  And I have to guess you could do that at draft time.  Not that you’d want to.

Offering David Wilson and the 1.02 for one of those three quarterbacks is a reasonable offer.  Assuming this is a 1QB/12-team league, you actually would have the leverage in this negotiation.  The other owner is likely starting Drew Brees every week and watching a ton of value sit on his bench in Andrew Luck/Russell Wilson.  I know I would give you Russell Wilson for the offer you are putting out there.  If you could get Luck from him, it’s even better.

I am quite bullish on David Wilson.  You may be giving up a player who in 2013 or 2014 breaks out as a solid RB1.  He’s got the physical skill set to do that but needs to improve his pass protection in order to get the touches.  Your offer is arguably an overpay for Russell Wilson.

2.) I have Brees, R.Wilson and Palmer.  I want to trade one of them for a WR.  Can Wilson be counted on to keep me playoff bound and what can I expect in return for either him or Brees?  – Richard in California

Counted on? No.  Is it worth the risk? Maybe. Depends on the rest of your team.

I expect Russell Wilson will be a top-10 re-draft quarterback in 2013, so that means he’s projected as a weekly starter.  He’ll go off the board somewhere in the mix with Matt Ryan, Tony Romo and Matt Stafford.  Probably ahead of Eli Manning and Big Ben.  If you’d feel good with Ryan or Romo as your quarterback, then I think you should feel okay with Wilson.  I’d only be okay with this if the rest of my team was quite strong or that the upgrade in receiver from my current starter is significant.

Drew Brees should command a pretty healthy return in terms of a wide receiver assuming there is a contender in your league who has receiver depth and could benefit from a quarterback upgrade.  Sometimes the market for quarterbacks in a 12-team league isn’t that good.  Since only one gets started most teams have at least a decent one.

Brees still warrants a second round start-up selection in my opinion.  That means you should expect a top-24 player thus a top-12 or so receiver in return.  I wouldn’t settle for less, I’d rather keep Brees at that point.

As to Wilson, I’m not sure what you could get.  The last question suggests the sky is the limit.  But I’d temper expectations.  I’d begin to get interested in a deal that had a weekly WR2 coming back my way.  Maybe someone like Dwayne Bowe or Justin Blackmon.

3.) I have Larry Fitzgerald for $40 in my salary cap league.  Thinking I could get either David Wilson or Russell Wilson back for him and also free up cap space.  Is now the time to sell Fitzgerald? – Art in Chicago

You don’t mention your total cap, but I’m guessing $40 is a lot of money.  Larry Fitzgerald is overpriced in most salary cap leagues at this point.

There’s no way you should be able to get back either Wilson for Fitz on a bad contract.  The Wilsons are both on their rookie contracts or a cheap waiver wire contract so essentially you’re asking for the player and enough free cap space to buy another one in free agency.  That wouldn’t be compelling to me as the other owner.

In normal dynasty leagues I have Fitz as a hold.  In your case I’d want that salary off my team.  I think you need to re-index your expectations about what you can get for him given the price tag he carries.

4.) Do you think the coaching changes in Cleveland; particularly Norv Turner’s vertical scheme will help Gordon and Little?  – Ryan in PA

On paper the changes in Cleveland would appear to help the tight ends, Trent Richardson and Josh Gordon.  I don’t see how they help Greg Little all that much.

I expect Chudzinski/Turner to install a very favorable set of packages and plays for the TE.  Conventional wisdom would say that Jordan Cameron should be the beneficiary.  Interestingly, Dan Shonka of Ourlads Scouting (and an ex-NFL scout) was on the podcast recently and said he expects Cleveland to look for a new TE1 in the draft.  He feels the TE talent in the draft is deep and that Cameron isn’t a particularly special player – keep this in mind in the second round of rookie drafts.

Probably most already understand why these changes should benefit Richardson.  Norv must be drooling thinking about the upgrade over Ryan Mathews.  Expect a heavy dose of touches for Richardson – both carries and catches.

As to the receivers, Gordon’s physical build and style of play fit nicely in to Norv’s scheme – much like V-Jax when he was healthy and motivated.  I’m not so sure about Little however.  Between targets for the tight end, Richardson and Gordon will there be enough left for another fantasy relevant player?  The system combined with the quality of quarterback play doesn’t look favorable for Little owners.

5.) My current QBs are Cutler/Vick in my SC league.  In a recent article you stressed that having a stud QB is important these days.  Brady will be a FA and I could possibly get him by blowing all my free cap space.  My core team is McCoy, Richardson, AJG and Julio.  Should I go after Brady? – Nick in Canada

I’m hoping that’s Trent Richardson not Darryl Richardson!  Assuming that’s the case, heck yes I’d go after Brady.

You have the core of a very serious contender in a 12-team league.  Brady is an elite quarterback who puts up the numbers year in and year out.  It’s highly likely that Brady is a top-5 QB again in 2013.  Because that’s so likely, he’s a relatively safe investment.  It’s very nice in fantasy to be able to set and forget a stud quarterback.

In salary cap, you have the flexibility of assigning a short contract.  If you think you only want to “overpay” for one year, then that’s what you do.  All that money comes back to you and you can change quarterbacks or see about getting Brady on a cheaper deal.  It doesn’t have to be a long term commitment to an aging player.  He’s probably a late first rounder in redraft.  You can treat it like that in SC by giving him a short deal.

At a minimum, you want to use your free cap space to bid him up even if you don’t win him.  The last thing you want is someone getting him cheaply and then starting him against you.  Before this season I traded for Brady in my SC league on a contract that accounts for 17% of our cap.  I did this in part because he was in my division and I was sick of facing him twice a year.  My team won the championship, the team that gave up Brady “earned” the 1.03 pick.  Brady is a fantasy difference maker.

6.) My RBs are weak and/or aging.  I’ve been offered MJD/3^rd rounder for Ingram/Ivory/2.01.  Is this worth it?  – Luke in Boston

Probably.  If the rest of your team is good enough to contend, then sure.  You’re trading bench depth and prospects for a weekly starter.

Mark Ingram and Chris Ivory are nice players and each has value in different ways.  Ingram seems to be coming on of late and may finally become the reliable RB2 we expected him to be when he was drafted.  Ivory is a speculative investment who if given the touches could explode quickly and become a nice asset.  Of course it’s also possible he continues to languish on the Saints bench.  I’d expect them to tender him.

MJD is obviously in decline.  2012 was a frustrating season for owners and he’ll be 28 at the start of this season.  But I think there’s some gas left in the tank.  If you trade for him, expect to get two more seasons of solid production, then it becomes rather murky.  Guys like Frank Gore and Michael Turner are still helping their teams, but the end is near.  MJD is fast approaching a similar situation.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.