Last Spring I wrote my first article for DLF and simultaneously embarked on a personal crusade to convince the fantasy world to rid itself of something that seems to be equally enduring and worthless, the kicker. Change is difficult and by nature we tend to resist it. For that reason, it was no surprise that my first article stirred up some strong feelings and lots of debate.
Now that it has been several months and the idea has sunk in a bit, it is time to revisit it. If you’re already on board with the idea, I hope that this article combined with the original and the one recently published will help you convince your leagues. If this is the first you’ve heard of the idea or you’re against it, all that I ask is that you take a breath and read this with an open mind. Change isn’t for everyone, and maybe you love your current system, but give me a chance to convince you to Kick the Kicker!
If you haven’t read the original article, go back and take a look at it, especially at the four reasons that people want to keep kickers. If you or someone in your league wants to keep kickers, it is probably for one of those reasons. Ask yourself, “Is it really a good reason?”
This two part series will look at the primary characteristics that we, as dynasty owners, hold in the highest regard: predictability of production and consistency of production. We want a player that will produce at a high level each and every year as well as from one week to the next instead of a one hit wonder. We also want to be able to predict when a player is going to see a sudden uptick in production, when it will continue at the same level, and when that production is going to drop off a cliff. It is only when we have consistent production that we can accurately predict that we can get real value out of a dynasty asset, so let’s see what happens when we apply those ideas to kickers.
Just to be clear, here were the ground rules that were used to evaluate the scoring of the kickers:
- In order to keep the scoring basic, all field goals were 3 points and extra points were 1. I did look at distance scoring briefly, but the vast majority of kickers were within 1 place regardless of the scoring method and the top 12 was still the same top 12 in 2012. Lawrence Tynes, Shayne Graham, and David Akers were the only kickers to fall more than one place in the rankings when distance scoring was used. Blair Walsh and Connor Barth were the only ones to gain more than one place in the rankings.
- Individual players were used as opposed to team kickers. Team kickers seem to be in the minority.
- All averages were calculated over a 16 game season. If a kicker missed a game due to injury or if their team was shut out, that was included.
- I will be focusing on the top 12 kickers since 12 team leagues are the happy medium and the vast majority of teams only carry one kicker on their roster at a time.
If we make the assumption you can actually predict which kicker will have a banner year (see the previous article for how unlikely this is), what exactly would that do for you? In order to answer that question, let’s focus on consistency for now, first consistency throughout the years, and later in this article consistency from week to week. The original article identified that kickers are extremely inconsistent from year to year with only six kickers that placed in the top 12 kickers three times or more over the past 5 seasons (2007-2011 seasons). This is just in the top 12, or the upper third, which isn’t saying a whole lot. The six were Mason Crosby (all five seasons), Akers (four), Stephen Gostkowski (four), Matt Bryant (four), Nate Kaeding (three), and Rob Bironas (three).
If we expand on that work and add in the 2012 season, the most consistent of the six, Crosby, wasn’t even close to the top 12. In fact he finished in the bottom half of kickers in the league. Not only that, but he was under 64% on the year and might lose his job as a result. Overall, that means he has equal numbers of top 3 finishes (just one) over the last six years as he has finishes in outside of the top 12. The other four seasons he finished near the bottom part of the top 12 even though the Packers have consistently been a top offense over the last few years.
Akers is next on the list and had been the most consistent kicker over the previous five seasons. Like Crosby, he struggled in 2012. He made just under 70% of his field goals, which isn’t anywhere near good, but managed to barely make it into the top 12 kickers based on bulk and extra points. To make matters worse, there is talk that the 49ers might decide to move on from him in the offseason or sooner. Regardless, of how he did it, this makes it five out of six seasons in the top 12, but 2012 was a bit of a letdown.
Gostkowski is one of the two kickers from the “good” six that actually produced in 2012. The other was Bryant. Both of them managed to place in the top 3 this season. Keep in mind, top 3 really just means that they are scoring you roughly 1 point more per week than the average top 12 kicker. Not that big of an advantage.
Kaeding and Bironas were both disappointments this year but for different reasons than Crosby and Akers. Kaeding hardly played this year after getting injured, waived, and then struggling to find a new team. Bironas had some accuracy issues, but also was a part of a bad offense. Neither of them were near the top 12 this season.
Looking at the “reliable” six that we had, only one third of them actually managed to produce at a level that was above the average of the top 12 this year. That doesn’t say much to the year to year consistency for the position.
Let’s take a look at the weekly consistency of kickers and see if that is any better. If there is a way to predict the “hot” kickers for the season, then an advantage can be gained week in and week out. Since the average points in a week for a kicker seem to be between 8 and 9 points, we will consider any score of a 10 or better to be a plus week, and anything at a 7 or less to be a minus week. A kicker that was equally above average and below average or that was just average every week should have a season total of 0. This will allow us to take a look at which kickers were actually consistently better than average on a weekly basis instead of having one week with 18 points and two weeks at 3 points, which gives us an average of 8 even though two of the three weeks were below average.
I expanded the sample to look at all of the kickers that had more than 10 games played, just to get a bit larger look at kickers as a whole and their weekly consistency. Remember their score represents how many more weeks they were above the average than below it. Of the entire group of kickers, only two of them, that’s a whopping 6%, had scores of 2 or better. It isn’t really a surprise that the two are Gostkowski with a score of 6, and Bryant with a score of 2. Six of the kickers, or 19%, had scores that were either -1. 0, or 1 meaning they were above average pretty much the exact same number of times as they were below average. The all of the other kickers were all -2 or lower.
That makes perfect sense when you consider that if a kicker is going to excel when it comes to scoring fantasy points, he needs one of two things to be true. He either needs to be on an offense that scores a massive number of points or on an offense that can move the ball but struggles in the red zone. An offense that does one or the other week in and week out is pretty rare, making the kickers very up and down. They might have 4 field goals and 3 extra points one week and then 5 extra points the next. The team actually does better, but the kicker does worse, in the second case.
What does all of this tell us if only 6% of NFL kickers are consistently above average week in and week out, and that very few kickers actually post top 12 numbers year in and year out? It tells us that the position as a whole is extremely inconsistent. That isn’t just from year to year but even week to week. If consistent production is one thing that we, as fantasy owners, want from our players, then we need to seriously look at the kicker position as a whole because the position itself just doesn’t fit.
This lack of consistency in the kicking position is yet another reason that you should do yourself a favor. Kick the Kicker from your fantasy leagues this offseason!
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I have one argument for keeping the kicker that is hard to refute… There is always a handful of guys who think they can out think everyone and draft a kicker before everyone else. And they subsequently struggle the entire year (or get lucky, but the former more often than the latter).
So now I know at least one guy (or a few guys) who can be targeted for trades and/or will cut that stud guy if he struggles for the first few weeks.
I’ve never had someone argue that the sheer foolishness of others is a reason to do something, but I guess it works out that way for you! It reminds me of a saying of a former collegue of mine, “Every once in a while you need to pour a little bleach into the gene pool.”
Believe me, I’ve tried to correct them on their foolishness, but they refused to listen. So I figure I might as well exploit it.
The only league I’m in with a kicker is a keep five league with heavy defensive scoring. Keepers spots are precious and I would hate to get rid of the kicker knowing that there is one guy that habitually keeps seabass over other way better options thus throwing them back in the draft. There is also one guy as well that drafts his kicker mid rounds. I find this as an advantage to me an would hate to lose it.
The ONLY good thing about keeping the kicker, in my opinion, is the excitement or sheer terror that one feels when relying on that player, and that player only, to win or lose you your fantasy game on Monday night. Other than that, I see no point in having them.
Since the main point of this exercise is damning the unpredictability of kickers, I offer you this:
My kicker, Jason Hanson, points per week:
9 13 15 7 14 1 4 7 6 8 7 15 8 4 10 6
My RB, Doug Martin, points per week:
5 9 1 5 11 21 37 5 7 14 4 12 0 5 13
Throw out the high for each (15 and 37, respectively).
Throw out the low for each (1 and 0, respectively).
What are you left with?
Difference between Hanson’s biggest and smallest week? 10 points.
Difference between Martin’s biggest and smallest week? 20 points.
Looks to me like a solid, draftable player like Martin has much more volatility than a kicker, which some are claiming is undraftable.
I realize its a small sample…but the same holds true for any number of players at every position. Volatility is in the eyes of the beholder apparently.
A few major flaws with that. First off, using point spread is statistically flawed unless the players score at the exact same amount. You need to use a measure like standard deviation.
Second, from a statistics standpoint, Martin’s 37 point week is a very clear outlier. You can’t even consider that in his data. You would need to throw that out before you even started to look at things. Just throwing out the high number doesn’t make sense. Data is data unless it is an outlier.
Third, I have no idea what kind of scoring system you’re using for Martin. He never scored under 6 in a standard PPR system.
Fourth, you picked one of, if not the most variable RB and compared him to one of the most consistent kickers.
With all that being said, I’ll play your game using proper statistics.
Hanson had a mean score of 8.375 with a standard deviation of 4.113. That means that the deviation is 49.1% of the mean, which is significant variation.
Using standard PPR scoring (since I have no idea what kind of scoring system you’re in), Martin had a mean score of 17.243 with a standard deviation of 8.246. The deviation is 47.8% of the mean. Still a significant variation, but slightly less than Hanson’s.
If the most variable RB is near, but slightly less than one of the more consistent kickers, what does that say about the rest of the position?
1) You say you can’t throw out the high number, unless its an outlier. Then, you state Martin’s 37 is an outlier. I threw out the high and low to eliminate the outliers. My argument is even stronger if you leave the high and low scores in, since most of the offensive positions (QB, RB, WR, TE) will have a week where their score is more out of line with their mean, as opposed to kickers.
2) You say Martin never scored 6 under any system. That’s funny…neither did I. RIF.
3) Not everyone plays PPR. I never stated that I play PPR. Ours is 1 pt per 20 rushing/receiving. Puts more emphasis on TD’s..not my favorite, but it is what it is. However…any scoring system is relative to itself.
4) Go ahead and check the standard deviation on the top 10 at each position. You’ll find volatility at almost every position, for almost every player. While we all search for consistency, there simply are bad weeks, and good weeks, for every position, for almost every player.
The fact is this. All players have volatility. You say I picked one of the more volatile RB’s, with one of the most consistent kickers.
In other words…you basically just made my point. If the goal is to pick players without volatility, I would say I accomplished that goal at the kicker position. Read my post from yesterday in regards to how and why I selected Hanson as my kicker from last year to this year, and maybe you’ll understand what my point actually was.
1) Not all highs and lows are outliers. There is a statistical definition. If your scores are 6, 7, 6, 7, 6, 7. Throwing out the high and low is pointless and actually decreases the validity of your study because you have a smaller sample size. Randomly excluding data, especially in s small data set (under 50 data points) is very, very dangerous.
2) I said Martin never scored under a 6 in a standard PPR system. I have no idea what system you’re using, but it isn’t a standard PPR system.
3) True, things are relative to the scoring system. Every scoring system can change things. We can’t write specific articles tailored to every scoring system. If you play in someone that is unusual, which you do (TD heavy, non PPR leagues aren’t common), you can’t use your league to argue for or against anything. You need to look at the norm.
4) Yes, every player does have volatility. Some just have more. The point isn’t that kickers are the only position with differences. The point is that kickers are not only unpredictable and inconsistent from year to year, but also from week to week more so than any other position.
As for Hanson as a whole, he had 8 weeks where he was below average, 5 weeks where he was above, and 3 weeks where he was average, and he was one of the better ones!
Doug – 2) You say Martin never scored 6 under any system. That’s funny…neither did I. RIF.
My RB, Doug Martin, points per week:
5 9 1 5 11 21 37 5 7 14 4 12 0 5 13
What did Martin score in week one? 5 or 59?
week 3? 1 or 15? How about after his 37 point outburst? 5 or 57? did you not type that? Hmmmmm? seems like you did.
Why is this concept so difficult for you to wrap your head around? Your argument / point isn’t valid. Period. So you apparently think you have an advantage when it comes to figuring out kickers. Ok. So be it. I wish you the best of luck. As LUCK is what you’ll need. They are unpredictable as there are too many variables for even the most savy dynasty owner to concider both from week to week and EVEN MORE so from year to year.
Chalk it up to human nature’s natural fear of change.
I understand you have a clear interest in defending your point, as you wrote these articles. However, here and in your last article you very clearly have ignored flaws that others have brought up. Honestly, I kind if felt the responses you gave in your prior article were dismissive and to some degree unnecessarily argumentative.
Arguing lack of consistency is a poor argument from the start.
Off the top of my head, players that are inconsistent:
Cam Newton 2012
Vincent Jackson
Desean Jackson
Ray Rice 2011
Doug Martin
Mike Williams
Most Tight Ends
Jay Cutler
Dez Bryant prior to his end of the season rampage
DMC when healthy
Mathews
Julio Jones
Charles
Rodgers to some degree this year
Should these players be eliminated because of their inconsistency? Some of these names are top 5 on most boards and quite a few are top 12.
I understand the point that an optimally successful offense actually produces few points for a kicker. I don’t have a solution to resolve that, that wouldn’t skew their scoring drastically.
However, I don’t think that is should be the goal. Plenty of players are productive/score more points due to the success of an offense. It is just that kickers are affected in a different way and with a different kind of predictability. Two down backs that score decently well get donuts when their team falls behind early. Some players get misused because of their inept coaches. 2010 (?) John Kuhn scores a retarded amount of touchdowns near the end of the season out of nowhere, that could have gone to the usual players. Eli/Romo have meltdowns and EVERYONE suffers.
Point being, is that we try to do our best in predicting an unpredictable game. It is not limited to only kickers.
Thanks for the comments. I’m not trying to be dismissive at all. I’m just challenging people to look at the big picture and actually back up their thoughts/feelings with data.
You listed 12 or so names on your list as players that are inconsistent. That is fine. Some players are inconsistent because they are homerun hitters. Chris Johnson has been wildly inconsistent for years. Lee Evans was the model of inconsistency. I’ve never once said that inconsistency is limited to kickers, because it isn’t. However, when an entire position, not just select individuals within a position, are inconsistent on the scale that kickers are inconsistent, that should really raise a few red flags.
The underlying point of the articles is that if a position as a whole, not select individuals, is not only unpredictable but inconsistent from year to year and even week to week, it is little more than an element of luck. Should luck have an roster position dedicated to it? I think there is already enough volitility in the world of fantasy with the positions that we actually stand a chance at predicting and that are reasonably consistent.
Another way to look at it would be to create a little exercise. Pick five kickers that have big names. Lets say: Gostkowski, Janikowski, Akers, Walsh, and Hanson. How comfortable are you in saying that barring injury, those five will outscore any five kickers that I pick? If we switch to QBs. How comfortable would you be in saying that Brees, Rodgers, Brady, Manning, and RG3 (again, barring injury), will outscore any other five QBs that I pick? I’m sure that everyone would be much more comfortable doing that with QBs than with kickers because QBs are consistent and predictable while kickers aren’t. That’s the point.
Then, what about TEs as a whole position?
RBs – I’d bet there weren’t many that would have wanted to place Martin or Richardson in a gamble for top 5 average scoring. Or that would have thought Mccoy would have finished 8th behind Sproles and Lynch. That Alfred Morris would outscore and out average Jamaal Charles. That MJD would finish 24th in average PPG. McFadden at 22 and Mathews at 27.
WR – Marshall #2? Dez #4? Andre Johnson #6? Harvin #5? Wallace nowhere to be found in the top 30?
I’m pretty sure no one guessed those players. Not every position can be as consistent as the top 3 QBs.
Not every position is as consistent as QBs, but none are as inconsistent as kickers.
I suggest that Jacob’s argument is indeed a crusade, and, like so many zealots of old, he would charge around and chop off the heads of any non-believers who would not embrace his truths as their own.
I could argue that a kicker is so involved in every game that a more sophisticated K scoring system should be employed to validate even the lowly kicker, or that most leagues don’t have enough available talent to create parity-even with kickers on the rosters, or that Jacob’s substanceless, mocking, “counter-arguments” (KTK-Part 1) are irrellevant diversions, which fail to address even HIS convenient, superficial arguments against. I could even argue that kickers make it more fun, but since Jacob doesn’t care what I think, and I don’t intend to get rid of kickers anyway, this is all beside the point:
Jacob has decided that fantasy football is a better game without kickers, and anybody who questions the sanctity of his belief, not only can, but WILL, go to fantasy hell!
On a related note, I guess I wouldn’t mind taking a flier on that C.J. Spiller guy, after all. He’s still a well-guarded secret, right?
P.S. I’ll be needing more “daily content” for the next few months. Please send it in a plain manilla envelope to the FFB Detox Center.
Huh? The numbers are the numbers. The things you mention… I’m not sure you are grasping the elementary nature of the overall point here. I suggest you go back and read the first article from earlier this year, then (take your time now) read the second, then give it some time to sink in, then… read the third. What I think you’ll find is a DLF writer that is making an attempt and improving your league. Not some crusade of forcing one man’s opinion on all leagues.
Man… Jacob never decided anything in referance to kickers. Just like Jacob never decided which Qb,wr,rb,te would be in the top 5 or who wont next year… etc. The numbers did the deciding – all he did was convey the message that so many (yourself clearly included) were unable to see.
For the life of me, I cannot understand why this concept is so difficult for so many fantasy footballers to understand. As an educater, it frightens the #$$% out of me to be honest. Statistics, trends, numbers, and such – do not lie. Jacob is not making this up. I would love to see the kicker supporters like yourself Robert, put together a list of your top 10 kickers (for 2013) just so you can prove it to yourself. Fact of the matter is they matter so little in fantasy for so many reasons, I can’t believe I even get as involved in these discussions as I do. Just frustrates me when I see / witness people who seem to “just not get it”. When in all reality the concept is very very elementary.
irrellevant diversions, which fail to address even HIS convenient, superficial arguments against.
Maybe go to a quiet room with no distractions and make a 2nd attempt at reading the articles. Sometimes that helps with people who have a hard time absorbing complex information. I have my Anatomy & Physiology students re read exerpts of the text from time to time when the content is complex and complecated terminology is used. You know… the eyes are moving right to left and top to bottom but the words and their meaning aren’t getting through and registering for one reason or another.
Everyone is entitled to their own opinions, both about ideas and individuals. I’ve even said that if kickers make the game more fun for you, and you enjoy the randomness, then by all means, keep them in your league. Fantasy football is suppose to be fun.
Why you have this built up angst towards me is anyone’s guess. I don’t know if someone kicked your puppy this morning or what, but just bashing someone because you disagree with them isn’t okay. If you disagree with statements made, that’s fine. Keep it civil though.
Well, I just spent 3 hours crafting a comment to explain what’s up with my original comment (and my reaction to the replies). I then put it on my clipboard & took a break to tweak my rookie draft board, intending to review and post the reply here. Within 30 seconds, I replaced it with an old list before I realized what I had done. CRAP! Anyway:
1. First and foremost: My entire comment was intended as a tongue-in-cheek play on words. I was just teasing Jacob because he is so intent on “Kicking the Kicker”. I actually expected some sniggers and laughs. Jacob, I have absolutely no animosity or “angst” toward you, and as with all the DLF writers, I appreciate and respect all the work you guys do, and I enjoy and look forward to it on a daily basis. I apologize for giving you the impression there was anything else going on.
2. My reply to “Jon the Educater” was a bit more involved and creative, but since his whole comment was such condescending bullcrap, the heck with it. I just hope he doesn’t browbeat his students in a similar manner.
I made it clear that I COULDN’T CARE LESS IF WE USE KICKERS OR NOT, and that, in my opinion, Jacob’s numbers are still just one factor in the “debate”, and not the reason there can be no debate.
3. I apologized to EVERYBODY for creating a situation where the dialogue fell apart. I know we all agree that it is the worst possible outcome when a dialogue deteriorates into unpleasantness. This was not a reaction I intended. I concluded, jokingly, that:
“In the future, I will be sure to take the extreme sensitivity of my FFFellow FFB debaters into account lol”.
Haha, “Jon the Educater” can’t even even spell “educator” correctly. I also feel sorry for the students subjected to his condescending attitude.
Re: “the numbers are the numbers”, in the comment thread following the previous article, Jon & Jacob did concede that, although inconsistent and not as predictable as other positions, there is up to +1 point difference expectation playing kicker matchups on a weekly streaming basis. I don’t pretend to be able to predict kicker (or DST) success at the beginning of the year; that’s exactly why I stream them and let others overpay for David Akers.
I think Jacob is very up-front about this being his personal crusade, and I respect him for that. I started out in favor of eliminating kickers, but now after being subjected to “Jon the Educater’s” diatribes, I’m back to favoring kickers.