Turning Back the Clock: Aging RB Performances
The common perception is that running backs peak in their mid-twenties, start to see a decline in their production around age 27 or 28, and that by the time they reach the age of 30, they’re pretty much worthless. In part two of a three part series (part one on quarterbacks can be viewed here), we will take a look at how some of the best running backs of their time aged and what happened at the end of their careers. Hopefully this will help to shed some light on what we can expect from today’s aging RB1s like Frank Gore and Steven Jackson.
The process is very similar to what was done in the first study; however, the information will be displayed in a very different way. In order to qualify, a player had to dominate his peers for a few years and/or put up consistent RB1 numbers for several years. The age of the player at the start of their best season, second best season, their last season with RB1 level production, and career carries are given.
In addition, any extenuating circumstances, if they exist, about their career such as team changes or major injuries are given as well as what happened after their last year of RB1 production. For reference, I drew the cutoff line for RB1 production at 240 points in a PPR league with standard scoring. This would place the player somewhere in the top 8-12 running backs for each of the last few years.
Just a quick reminder, the ages of the players are their age at the start of the NFL season. The names are in no particular order.
Corey Dillion
Age before his best season: 30
Age before his second best season: 27
Age before his last RB1 season: 30
Career carries: 2,618
Special notes: New team before his age 30 season.
End of his career: Nagging injuries piled up during his age 31 season, causing him to miss parts of six games. During his age 32 season he split carries with rookie Laurence Maroney before being cut at the end of the season and later retiring.
Jamal Lewis
Age before his best season: 24
Age before his second best season: 23
Age before his last RB1 season: 28
Career carries: 2,542
Special notes: Missed age 22 season with torn ACL and MCL. New team before his age 28 season.
End of his career: Lewis became unhappy with his team’s performance during his age 29 season, turning into a bit of a malcontent with his comments to the media. Before his age 30 season he announced that it would be his last. Part way through the season, he suffered an injury and was placed on injured reserve.
Shaun Alexander
Age before his best season: 28
Age before his second best season: 27
Age before his last RB1 season: 28
Career carries: 2,187
End of his career: He looked unstoppable until his age 29 season. During that season he suffered a broken foot and missed six full games. During his age 30 season he broke his wrist and later sprained his knee, missing parts of six more games. He was then cut so the Seahawks could get out of his contract and he never played significant time after that.
Curtis Martin
Age before his best season: 31
Age before his second best season: 27
Age before his last RB1 season: 31
Career carries: 3,518
Special notes: Started his career with 10 straight 1000+ yard rushing seasons.
End of his career: Suffered a knee injury mid-way through his age 32 season. Spent his age 33 season on the PUP list with a bone on bone issue in his knee. After missing the entire season he retired.
Edgerrin James
Age before his best season: 22
Age before his second best season: 21
Age before his last RB1 season: 27
Career carries: 3,028
Special notes: New team before his age 28 season. Torn ACL during age 23 season.
End of his career: James put up nice numbers with his new team for his age 28 and age 29 seasons, but he didn’t have the touchdowns to make him a RB1. During his age 30 season, he struggled to produce and had a few little injuries. Some attribute this drop off to the failing health and eventual death of his long-time girlfriend and mother of his children.
Marshall Faulk
Age before his best season: 27
Age before his second best season: 28
Age before his last RB1 season: 29
Career carries: 2,836
End of his career: Starting with his age 29 season, the little injuries began to pile up. He was a low end RB2 through his age 31 season. During his age 32 season, the Rams gave the job to Steven Jackson and Faulk was just a backup. Faulk retired after that year.
Emmitt Smith
Age before his best season: 26
Age before his second best season: 23
Age before his last RB1 season: 30
Career carries: 4,409
Special notes: New team before his age 34 season.
End of his career: Although Smith’s last RB1 season was at age 30, he played until he was 35 years old and managed RB2 numbers for most of those years with 1,042 yards and nine touchdowns during his final season.
LaDainian Tomlinson
Age before his best season: 27
Age before his second best season: 24
Age before his last RB1 season: 29
Career carries: 3,174
Special notes: New team before his age 31 season.
End of his career: Tomlinson slowed down during his age 30 season, only producing 884 total yards in 14 games, but he did have 12 touchdowns. In his first year with the Jets, he posted nearly 1,300 total yards, but only six TDs. In his age 32 season, he filled a complimentary role before retiring.
Barry Sanders
Age before his best season: 29
Age before his second best season: 23
Age before his last RB1 season: 30
Career carries:Â 3,062
End of his career: Retired after his age 30 season when the Lions refused to trade him to a contender.
Brian Westbrook
Age before his best season: 28
Age before his second best season: 27
Age before his last RB1 season: 29
Career carries: 1,385
Special notes: Known for missing a few games a year with little injuries. He never played 16 games in any season, but played 12+ in all seasons until his age 30 season.
End of his career: Suffered multiple concussions during his age 30 season. He played sparingly during his age 31 season before retiring.
Roger Craig
Age before his best season: 25
Age before his second best season: 28
Age before his last RB1 season: 29
Career carries: 1,991
End of his career: During his age 30 season, Craig suffered serious knee injury and missed five games, never looking the same afterwards. He spent his age 31 season with the Raiders and the two years after that with the Vikings, but never produced.
Priest Holmes
Age before his best season: 30
Age before his second best season: 29
Age before his last RB1 season: 30
Career carries: 1,780
Special notes: Backup in Baltimore before becoming a Chief before his age 28 season.
End of his career: He was on pace for 2,158 yards and 30 touchdowns during his age 31 season before suffering a serious hip injury. During his age 32 season he was off to another good start before suffering what ended up being a career ending neck injury, ushering in the Larry Johnson era for the Chiefs.
Clinton Portis
Age before his best season: 21
Age before his second best season: 22
Age before his last RB1 season: 27
Career carries: Â 2,230
Special notes: New team before his age 23 season.
End of his career: Injuries struck during his age 28 season, and he just broke down.
Tiki Barber
Age before his best season: 30
Age before his second best season: 29
Age before his last RB1 season: 31
Career carries: Â 2,217
End of his career: Retired after his age 31 season.
Walter Payton
Age before his best season: 23
Age before his second best season: 31
Age before his last RB1 season: 32
Career carries: 3,838
Special notes: Only missed one game during his career due to injury.
End of his career: No running back study would ever be complete without Sweetness. He left the league as the leading rusher, since being passed by Emmitt Smith who needed almost 600 more carries and a few more years to do it. Before his age 33 season, Payton announced that it would be his last. He chose a very reduced role in the backfield and became more of a mentor for that season, only rushing 146 times in his final year.
Summary
Let’s look at a few stats on what these numbers turned up.
Mean – same as average
Mode – Most common number
Median – Middle number when in order
Best season: Mean – 26.7, Median – 27, Mode – 30, High – 31, Low – 21
Second Best: Mean – 25.9, Median – 27, Mode – 27, High – 31, Low – 21
Last RB1 year: Mean – 29.3, Median – 29, Mode – 30, High – 32, Low – 27
Carries – Mean – 2,721, Median – 2,618, High – 4,409, Low – 1,385
The numbers show that the best years for elite running backs seem to be right around the ages of 26 and 27; however, seven of the fifteen running backs had their best years after that, including four that had it after they had turned 30 years old.
When it comes to producing at a RB1 level, this seems to continue all the way through their 20,s until their age 30 season. Only three of the fifteen running backs produced at a RB1 level after their age 30 season, though several probably would have if not for injuries (Holmes) or retirement (Sanders).
The number of carries seems to have very little to do with how long running backs can make it. Sometimes you hear various numbers thrown around as being the cutoff instead of age, but the numbers don’t really show that. While the mean and median are in the mid 2,000’s, the numbers are all over the place.
Let’s take a closer look at how their careers ended as well so that we know what to expect from guys like Gore and Jackson as they near the end. In order to make it easier, the endings for each running back’s career was broken down into ending due to injury, being replaced or cut due to ineffectiveness, or retiring by choice. Injury accounted for the eventual end to seven of the running backs, four of them were replaced or cut, and four of them decided to retire even though they were still producing.
What does all of this mean for the aging running backs in the league today?
Expect their best years to be right around 26 or 27 and for them to continue to put up solid, if not elite production through their age 30 season. Don’t expect a whole lot after that, though. Be very leery of major injuries or multiple little injuries during or after their age 28 season as well, because none of the fifteen backs above managed to come back after that age, though several did when the injuries were earlier.
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Three - April 28, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round Two - April 26, 2021
- Final 2021 Pre-Draft Rookie Mock: Round One - April 25, 2021
