IDP Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis

anakin

 

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I know what you are saying, “Another dynasty mock?  You’re crazy. We haven’t even had the NFL Draft!”  Since many dynasty football players, including myself, have the “sickness” all year long, the guys here at DLF wanted to host it as a reference league for the pre-draft dynasty layout of the land.  This time before the NFL Draft is especially fun as outside of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, we have no idea where every rookie or the remaining free agents, for that matter, will end up.

The draft has fantastic representation from all the following: bleacherreport.com (Gary Davenport); draftsharks.com (Matt Schauf); footballguys.com (Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel); profootballfocus.com (Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles); dlfstg02.dynastyleaguefootball.com (Steve Wyremski); The IDP Guru (@OlingerIDPGuru);  myself and a host of others from twitter.

You can check out the entire draft here: http://www30.myfantasyleague.com/2012/home/74461#0 .

ROUND ONE

1.01 Ray Rice, RB BAL
1.02 LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
1.03 Arian Foster, RB HOU
1.04 Calvin Johnson, WR DET
1.05 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
1.06 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
1.07 Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
1.08 Jimmy Graham, TE NO
1.09 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX
1.10 Matt Forte, RB CHI
1.11 Chris Johnson, RB TEN
1.12 Cam Newton, QB CAR

The top five remains the same with some combination of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, and Aaron Rodgers.  The tight ends in the form of Rob Gronkowski (1.07) and Jimmy Graham (1.08) went a bit too high for my taste.  In leagues with premium tight end scoring (1.5 points per reception), I could understand the higher choice of those talented guys.

The best first round value was Cam Newton who I have seen go as high as 1.06.  Yes, he is a second year player, but he ranked fourth overall in total points in this format last year.  Even if he gets less goal line work, Cam should easily exceed his 1.12 draft spot.

ROUND TWO

2.01 Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG
2.02 Ryan Mathews, RB SD
2.03 Wes Welker, WE NE
2.04 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
2.05 AJ Green, WR CIN
2.06 Julio Jones, WR ATL
2.07 Jamaal Charles, RB KC
2.08 Darren McFadden, RB OAK
2.09 Matthew Stafford, QB DET
2.10 Andre Johnson, WR HOU
2.11 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.12 Drew Brees, QB NO

There were some great wide receivers selected in this round, including Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant. Any of these guys are great as a #1 option for years to come.

It seemed to be the time to select injured elite running backs as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Darren McFadden were all selected.  There is too much risk for them for my taste at this point in the draft.

Wes Welker seems to be the biggest reach with his age (31 in May).

ROUND THREE

3.01 Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
3.02 Michael Vick, QB PHI
3.03 Roddy White, WR ATL
3.04 DeMarco Murray, RB DAL
3.05 Vincent Jackson, WR TB
3.06 Tom Brady, QB NE
3.07 Rookie 1.01
3.08 Greg Jennings, WR GB
3.09 Frank Gore, RB SF
3.10 Mike Wallace, WR PIT
3.11 Eli Manning, QB NYG
3.12 Michael Bush, RB CHI

I really liked the picks of DeMarco Murray, the rookie 1.01, and Eli Manning.  If Murray is healthy, he can be a dominant running back with Romo’s aerial assault distracting defenses.

Trent Richardson (the rookie 1.01) is usually selected at the bottom of the second round or top of the third, so this is great value.

The Vincent Jackson pick seems to be a round or two early.

Frank Gore with his selector’s comment “So I’m living in the past…It’s comfy” makes zero sense here.  Gore was the 77th player selected in a money dynasty league I am in that just finished drafting.

Unfortunately as with any dynasty draft that was held early, the Michael Bush selection looks like a major reach knowing now, what wasn’t known then.

ROUND FOUR

4.01 Steven Jackson, RB STL
4.02 Kenny Britt, WR TEN
4.03 Victor Cruz, WR NYG
4.04 Philip Rivers, QB SD
4.05 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
4.06 Percy Harvin, WR MIN
4.07 Darren Sproles, RB NO
4.08 Brandon Marshall, WR CHI
4.09 Miles Austin, WR DAL
4.10 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB NYG
4.11 Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
4.12 Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI

As boring as it sounds, I thought everyone drafted well in the fourth round with the Kenny Britt pick at 4.02 having the most value if he stays healthy.  Of course, I liked my own choice of Jeremy Maclin at 4.12.

ROUND FIVE

5.01 Jordy Nelson, WR GB
5.02 CJ Spiller, RB BUF
5.03 Aaron Hernandez, TE NE
5.04 Mark Ingram, RB NO
5.05 Roy Helu, RB WAS
5.06 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
5.07 Stevie Johnson, WR BUF
5.08 Rookie 1.02
5.09 DeSean Jackson, WR PHI
5.10 Fred Jackson, RB BUF
5.11 Marques Colston, WR NO
5.12 Trent Cole, DE PHI

The best value was the rookie 1.02 pick, who could be Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, or Robert Griffin III.  I also liked using the back-to-back picks to corner the market on premier defensive ends.  The Jacksons, DeSean and Fred, were understandable in this round, but I would have went for more upside.

6.01 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE NYG
6.02 Jermichael Finley, TE GB
6.03 Vernon Davis, TE SF
6.04 Jared Allen, DE MIN
6.05 Denarius Moore, WR OAK
6.06 Rookie 1.03
6.07 Terrell Suggs, DE BAL
6.08 Justin Tuck, DE NYG
6.09 Julius Peppers, DE CHI
6.10 Rookie 1.04
6.11 Patrick Willis, LB SF
6.12 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN

I loved the DE run that caused some players like Justin Tuck and an old Julius Peppers to be selected earlier than they should have.  Some solid rookie pick steals (1.03, 1.04) combined with the infamous “draft for value at an untapped position” with the Patrick Willis (6.11) pick occurred while everyone else was chasing DEs.

ROUND SEVEN

7.01 Desmond Bishop, LB GB
7.02 Steve Smith, WR CAR
7.03 Tony Romo, QB DAL
7.04 Torrey Smith, WR BAL
7.05 Rookie 1.05
7.06 Beanie Wells, RB ARI
7.07 Rookie 1.06
7.08 Michael Crabtree, WR SF
7.09 D’Qwell Jackson, LB CLE
7.10 Mikel Leshoure, RB DET
7.11 Calias Campbell, DE ARI
7.12 Reggie Bush, RB MIA

Once again, this was a great round to pick up the rookie 1.05 and 1.06 picks as some owners, including myself, chose to ignore the draft picks as there were no names attached to them.  The selections of Mikel Leshoure and Calias Campbell seemed to be a few rounds too early with Leshoure’s injury concerns having never played a down in the NFL and Campbell simply not being very effective last year.  I thought Reggie Bush at the 7.12 was right about where he should go.

ROUND EIGHT

8.01 James Laurinaitis, LB STL
8.02 Navarro Bowman, LB SF
8.03 Ben Roethisberger, QB PIT
8.04 Jason Witten, TE DAL
8.05 Derrick Johnson, LB KC
8.06 Greg Little, WR CLE
8.07 Colin McCarthy, LB TEN
8.08 Jahvid Best, RB DET
8.09 Daryl Washington, LB ARI
8.10 Rookie 1.07
8.11 Brandon Pettigrew, TE DET
8.12 Jabaal Sheard, DE CLE

Ben Roethlisberger is great value in the eighth round – he never seems to get drafted past the sixth or seventh in most dynasty drafts.  I wasn’t crazy about Greg Little (8.06) with more proven wide receivers still on the board. Jahvid Best (8.08) is another guy who I think is a bad reach at this point in the draft.  Ben Tate, who was selected at 9.03 has a higher dynasty value regardless of who is now in front of him on the depth chart.

ROUND NINE

9.01 Sean Lee, LB DAL
9.02 Charles Johnson, DE CAR
9.03 Ben Tate, RB HOU
9.04 Rookie 1.08
9.05 Lawrence Timmons. LB PIT
9.06 Demarcus Ware, LB DAL
9.07 Kendall Hunter, RB SF
9.08 Peyton Hillis, RB KC
9.09 Sean Weatherspoon, LB ATL
9.10 London Fletcher, LB WAS
9.11 Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
9.12 Santonio Holmes, WR NYJ

As I mentioned earlier, Ben Tate is tremendous value at the 9.03.  Being a Steelers homer, I also like the Lawrence Timmons (9.05) value with him hopefully playing the entire year at ILB instead of OLB.  The Pierre Garcon pick could be a boom or bust pick; however, I like it in the ninth round.  I don’t understand the love for London Fletcher (9.10) as he is old and does not have a team right now.

ROUND TEN

10.01 Sidney Rice, WR SEA
10.02 JJ Watt, DE HOU
10.03 Pat Angerer, LB IND
10.04 Reggie Wayne, WR IND
10.05 Jerod Mayo, LB NE
10.06 Fred Davis, TE WAS
10.07 Antonio Gates, TE SD
10.08 Mike Williams, WR TB
10.09 Paul Posluszny, LB JAX
10.10 Vincent Brown, WR SD
10.11 Von Miller, LB DEN
10.12 Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN

The best values found in the tenth round were Jerod Mayo and Fred Davis. Mayo might never be the #1 linebacker again, but he can stay in the top ten for many years to come.  Fred Davis can be a knucklehead, but as the ninth tight end selected, he has tremendous value this late. The two picks I’m not crazy about were the Tampa Mike Williams (10.08) and my very own Kyle Rudolph (10.12).  Mike Williams faded last year, had issues keeping himself in shape and was revealed to be a knucklehead.  Kyle Rudolph’s value took a hit thanks to John Carlson joining the Vikings.

I had a lot of fun taking part in the mock.

Andy Miley is the host of Dynasty Blitz Podcast on Blog Talk Radio, Dynasty/Keeper Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Alarm and can be found on twitter @AndrewMiley