Experts League Draft Update: Rounds Two and Three
As our loyal following well knows, we participate in a Dynasty Experts League with fellow site owners from across the country. Our team is managed together by Jeff Haverlack (dlf_Jeff) and Ken Kelly (dlf_KenK). Last year, DLF won the Dynasty Experts League championship with a record of 15-1.
That amazing season featured a few equally amazing statistics:
1.) We averaged 201.3 points per game – the next closest team was under 180.
2.) Our “all play” record for the season was a ridiculous 151-25 (.858%)
3.) We set three of the four highest weekly point totals (and 6 of the top 18) in league history
4.) Our average margin of victory was 58 points
The league consists of the following sites:
FootballGuys = Jene Bramel
DynastyGuys = Jeff Pasquino and Peter Hodes
FFToday = Mike Macgregor
Fantasy Sharks = Jim Bukowski
FFToolbox = Matthew De Lima
ESPN / Scouts, INC. = Matt Williamson
FantasyFootballXtreme = Kevin Vennard
Pro Football Focus = Bryan Fontaine
RotoWorld = Evan Silva
Pigskin Addiction = Ryan Schoon
DLF = Ken Kelly and Jeff Haverlack
DraftCalc = Smitty
Our goal for getting into the league was to put our money where our mouth is in regards to dynasty leagues. We wanted to solidify DLF as a leader in the industry. After just two years, we’ve done just that.
We wanted to share with you the results of the first round of the rookie draft, complete with some trades that have been made (one of our own). Before we get too far, here was our current roster in the PPR Dynasty Experts League (keep in mind several of these players will be cut throughout the draft):
Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Carson Palmer
Kevin Kolb
Colt McCoy
Tyrod Taylor
Running Backs
Ryan Mathews
Darren McFadden
Marshawn Lynch
Reggie Bush
Jonathan Stewart
Evan Royster
Kahlil Bell
Jonathan Dwyer
Danny Woodhead
Wide Receivers
Wes Welker
Greg Jennings
Demaryius Thomas
Antonio Brown
Eric Decker
Anquan Boldin
Danario Alexander
Early Doucet
Joe Morgan
Preston Parker
Eddie Royal
Chastin West
Roy Williams
Tight Ends
Jason Witten
Dustin Keller
Luke Stocker
Kicker
David Akers
Defensive Linemen
John Abraham
James Hall
JJ Watt
Linebackers
Nick Barnett
London Fletcher
Ray Lewis
Defensive Backs
Jairus Byrd
Reggie Nelson
So, there you have it. We’ve constructed a roster that has a few flaws, but also has some evident strengths going into the future. We achieved this with some good drafting, some great trades and a little bit of good fortune.
DLF’s Draft Strategy
As champions of the league, we ended up with 1.12, 2.12, 4.12, 512, 6.12, 7.12 and 8.12 (we traded our third round pick last year).
Our plan all along was to wait until the selections started and lay in the weeds until the draft started getting close to our pick at 1.12. Our hope was there would be a player someone coveted who started to drop, giving us the ability to spin that pick at 1.12 in to a #1 next season (preferably from a team who would likely finish in the bottom of the league.
If that didn’t happen, we felt we were in a good position to take the best player available or attempt to move it for a backup quarterback to Rodgers.
Draft Results
1.01) Fantasy Sharks – Trent Richardson, RB CLE
No surprise here as the Sharks tend to stockpile running backs. They currently have 13 of them, but DeMarco Murray, Ben Tate and Trent Richardson seem to be the only viable starters for them at the moment – most of the rest are projects, but some are very good ones at that. The Sharks also had pick #3, so there was no sense for them to take Andrew Luck or Robert Griffin III since they were guaranteed to get one of the two at #3 if they so desired.
1.02) FootballGuys – Doug Martin, RB TB
FootballGuys liked Martin enough to take a stab at him here, over both of the elite quarterbacks. They either really liked Martin’s prospects or knew a team below them really valued him highly.
1.03) Fantasy Sharks – Andrew Luck, QB IND
No surprise here as the Sharks rolled the dice and came up a winner. He said it best, “I needed a franchise RB and got one with Richardson at 1.01. I need a quality backup QB who can takeover or surpass Tony Romo and I’ve got that with Luck.”
DRAFT TRADE = FootballGuys sent Doug Martin, Jerod Mayo, and 2.02 to FFToday for 1.04, 2.05 and Colin McCarthy.
They took a risk in taking Martin and hoping to find a trade partner if that was indeed their intention, but it worked out in the end. They get a younger LB in McCarthy, and the 1.04 pick coming up, plus a move back of just three spots in the second round.
For FFToday, they end up with Martin, who they almost HAD to have in the draft. Their running backs consisted of LeGarrette Blount, Felix Jones, Mikel Leshoure, Alfonso Smith and Daniel Thomas.
It’s one of those deals that seems to make sense for both.
1.04) FootballGuys – Robert Griffin III, QB WAS
After making the deal with FFToday, FootballGuys takes Griffin, who could have possibly been ranked higher on their board than Martin. They get a future starter at quarterback in Griffin (they currently had Philip Rivers and Blaine Gabbert on the roster).
1.05) Fantasy Sharks – Justin Blackmon, WR JAX
The Sharks entered the draft with picks 1.01, 1.03 and 1.05 and ended up with the #1 rated running back, quarterback AND wide receiver on many lists. Of course, this all happened before the DUI arrest this week. The Sharks added this in their draft commentary, “Very happy to be getting the draft’s top WR at pick 1.05. Jacksonville traded up to get Blackmon so he should see a boatload of targets.”
1.06) ProFootballFocus – David Wilson, RB NYG
He said it best in his comments in the draft room, “About how I expected the draft to unfold, but thought I had an outside chance at one of the quarterbacks or Blackmon”
1.07) FantasySharks – Brian Quick, WR STL
A bit of a stunner here as this is about as high as Quick has gone in a rookie draft. The Sharks justify their pick by saying, “Great situation. Great young QB. Big time talent with nice upside. Will be Rams #1 WR and should produce early and often.”
1.08) FantasySharks – Coby Fleener, TE IND
Another surprising pick by the Sharks, considering Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd were still on the board. He comments, “It’s probably a bit early to take Fleener but Indy will be passing a lot and Luck will be targeting his old college chum.”
Side note: The Sharks franchise was able to stockpile a ton of picks in the draft by making some great trades over the years. They traded Jacob Tamme for a 2012 1st-round pick, Dexter McCluster and Sidney Rice for DeAngelo Williams and a 2012 first round pick, Peyton Hillis for a 2011 and 2012 first round pick and their 1.11 in 2011 for yet another first rounder this year. The Sharks know what they’re doing!
1.09) FFToolbox – Michael Floyd, WR ARI
The toolbox makes the comment that he’s always looking for the best player available at all times and it’s hard to argue Floyd not fitting that category.
Side note: This is right about the time where DLF starts sending out some feelers about picking up a first rounder next year in exchange for pick 1.12. We were hoping Stephen Hill and Ronnie Hillman would drop to that area since many are high on both of them.
1.10) ProFootballFocus – Kendall Wright, WR TEN
PFF notes he was surprised that Wright fell to him here and he likes the value. Tough to argue.
Side note: We started to get a lot of offers that included the 1.12 at this point, but most of them wanted players like McFadden and Mathews in larger deals. We weren’t that interested.
1.11) DynastyGuys – Isaiah Pead, RB STL
The DynastyGuys go for Pead over Stephen Hill and Ronnie Hillman and we find ourselves pretty excited they’re still on the board, along with Ryan Tannehill and Rueben Randle.
Side note: Now the trade talks REALLY heat up. ESPN is very interested in 1.12, but they have no #1 next year. This is where it’s important to know which players you have that OTHER players like. We engage in some very lengthy discussions revolving around various trade scenarios that include Jeremy Maclin, DeAngelo Williams and Hakeem Nicks on his side and Antonio Brown, Eric Decker, Demaryius Thomas, 1.12, 2.12 our #2 in 2013 on our side. We knew he was very interested in Brown (after all, he was the #23 WR in the format last year), so we really focused on that and feel like we got the perfect deal for us.
DRAFT TRADE = ESPN/Scouts, Inc. trades Hakeem Nicks to DLF for Antonio Brown, 1.12, 2.12 and our #2 in 2013. We felt that gave us another legitimate WR1 and felt great about it since we nabbed Brown off the wire last year before he blew up and parlayed that and our draft picks into an elite player. Matt Williamson is very, very high on Antonio Brown’s potential (take note) and it was obvious he thought highly of another player in this draft since he wanted the next pick.
1.12) ESPN / Scouts, Inc. – Ronnie Hillman, RB DEN
Hillman was the target for ESPN all along and he felt good about getting him.
END ROUND ONE
So, we feel even better about our prospects next season with the following starting lineup on offense, with a solid defensive unit behind them:
Aaron Rodgers
Ryan Mathews
Darren McFadden
Hakeem Nicks
Greg Jennings
Wes Welker
Demaryius Thomas / Marshawn Lynch / Reggie Bush / Eric Decker
Jason Witten
ROUND TWO
2.01) Pigskin Addiction – Alshon Jeffery, WR CHI
Jeffery’s value is all over the board, with some drafts having him taken in the late first and others in the late second. You’re either squarely in or out of his camp and there doesn’t seem to be much that could change that at this point. On one hand, he has some real talent. On the other, he’s been an underachiever and should have put up much bigger numbers than he did in college.
2.02) FFToday – Rueben Randle, WR NYG
The rise of Randle is undeniable at this point, even with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz cemented ahead of him on the depth chart in New York. All reports thus far on Randle have been very positive and he’s a great prospect in dynasty leagues. While his immediate situation is a bit murky, owners need to remember they’re in dynasty league – the landscape can change in a heartbeat.
2.03) DynastyGuys – Mohamed Sanu, WR CIN
The battle is on between Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and the much less talked about Armon Binns for the spot across from AJ Green. The DynastyGuys hedge their bets that Sanu is the player who will emerge. It’s a risk, but the draft is full of them this year.
2.04) FFToday – Luke Kuechly, LB CAR
FFToday takes the plunge into the rookie IDPs by taking the player most likely to perform early and often. It’s a bit of a surprise that Kuechly lasts to #16 overall, but FFToday doesn’t mind.
2.05) FootballGuys – Stephen Hill, WR NYJ
Speaking of draft values, FootballGuys seems to get one here as Hill drops a few spots more than he has in most rookie drafts. He has the physical attributes to be successful, but can the Jets really make use of them? Time will tell.
2.06) ESPN/Scouts, Inc. – Lamar Miller, RB MIA
Interesting.
Matt Williamson is as plugged into the league as anyone I know and he’s obviously a believer in Miller, despite his plunge in the NFL Draft. This is a major gamble for ESPN/Scouts, Inc., but one that could pay off if Miller can successfully beat out Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush moves on after the season. It’s a risky pick, though.
2.07) Rotoworld – Ryan Broyles, WR DET
We’ve said on more than a few occasions that Broyles’ injury for Oklahoma was one of the most heartbreaking scenes we’ve seen in a long time. His recovery is said to be going better than expected and he may not start the season on the PUP list after all. If he can regain his form quickly, this could be a steal for Rotoworld.
2.08) FantasyFootballXtreme – AJ Jenkins, WR SF
Jenkins is stuck on a very deep depth chart in San Francisco, but he deserves consideration in this area, possibly even higher. Fact is, the receiving corps for the 49ers will likely look a whole lot different in one or two years and Jenkins figures to be a big part of it.
2.09) ProFootballFocus – Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA
Tannehill fell further than expected and PFF cashes in with a nice prospect here. The Dolphins receivers aren’t great (and don’t fool yourself into thinking a possible addition of Chad Ochocinco would change that), but Tannehill should get a legitimate chance to establish himself and has the physical tools to be successful. If he fails, at least he has Lauren Tannehill.
2.10) DraftCalc – DeAngelo Hall, CB WAS
The first of the free agents go as DraftCalc sacrifices youth for experience.
2.11) FFToolbox – LaMichael James, RB SF
James finds himself buried on a depth chart with Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs and Anthony Dixon. However, don’t discount his explosiveness and his toughness. This is a nice pick at 2.11. He may have just as great a chance to succeed as Lamar Miller, all things considered.
2.12) DraftCalc – Darelle Revis, CB NYJ
DraftCalc loads up again with a veteran player instead of taking on any youthful risk. It’s a safe, if un-sexy, strategy.
ROUND THREE
3.01) Pigskin Addiction – Nick Toon, WR NO
Toon is really in a big group of receivers who will all be considered right around this area. Many owners are going to be faced with choosing between Toon, AJ Jenkins, Ryan Broyles, Chris Givens, Greg Childs and others right around here. Toon needs to stay healthy, but you have to like the offense he wound up on.
3.02) ProFootballFocus – Brandon Weeden, QB CLE
PFF had three picks in the third round and started off by taking a chance on Weeden. While his age is an obvious concern in dynasty leagues, this seems like a pretty solid selection. Sure, you may get five fewer years of really good production (in a best case scenario), but there are other rookie quarterbacks who you get nothing from at all.
3.03) Fantasy Sharks – Ladarius Green, TE SD
The Sharks roll the dice and hope Green is the long term answer to Antonio Gates. It’s amazing the gap between Fleener and the next crop of tight ends this year. In most drafts, it’s going to be around twenty picks or so.
3.04) FFToday – Mark Barron, S TB
Barron has been gaining steam in IDP leagues as of late, as indicated by a relatively high selection in this draft.
3.05) FFToolbox – Chris Rainey, RB PIT
This pick was a bit of a head scratcher, but FFToolbox is hoping Rainey can shine early. His commentary proved as much when he said, “Has a shot to prove his value early if Mendenhall needs some time off.” We have our doubts, but again, this draft is about going with your gut.
3.06) ProFootballFocus – Mychal Kendricks, LB PHI
Kendricks is a long term IDP stash, but he should get some early opportunities to prove he can handle even more. The Eagles have been looking for a dominant young linebacker for a long time and they hope they’ve found it in Kendricks.
3.07) Rotoworld – Bernard Pierce, RB BAL
We have our doubts that Pierce will ever be more than a backup level player in the league, but at 3.07 and with Ray Rice in the middle of a contract dispute, it’s worth a shot.
3.08) FantasyFootballXtreme – Chris Givens, WR STL
Brian Quick is getting most of the publicity and respect in dynasty leagues, but Givens has a shot to start as a rookie, too. If he plays well, this pick at 3.08 could be a nice little steal.
3.09) ProFootballFocus – Lavonte David, LB TB
PFF goes defense with the final of their three picks in this round. The Tampa Bay linebacking corps is far from solidified, especially with Mason Foster struggling last year. David represents a high upside opportunity at #33 overall.
3.10) Fantasy Sharks – Greg Childs, WR MIN
If Childs can stay healthy, this could be a huge bargain in the draft. There are many coaches super high on Childs and his drop to 3.10 could work out nicely for the Sharks.
3.11) DynastyGuys – Michael Egnew, TE MIA
Egnew is a fine player to have on your roster, but he would have likely been available in the next round. With players like Juron Criner, Marvin Jones and Russell Wilson still on the board, this pick was a surprise.
3.12) Fantasy Sharks – Bobby Wagner, LB SEA
Speaking of IDP sleepers, how about Wagner? It’s quite possible he may start as the MLB in Seattle this season and he’s been a forgotten man in many drafts. Not so much in this one.
We’ll keep you updated on the draft’s progress, or you can follow it here. You can also follow me on twitter @dlf_kenk
Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
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