61 Responses to “2012 Rookie Ranking – Top 10”

  1. Warren says:

    Good list, although I’m a little suprised Russell Wilson from Wisconsin did not make your top-10 QBs. Is he right outside your top-10 or don’t you think his game translates very well to the pros?

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      The kid has heart and a relatively live arm, but I won’t be surprised if he measures in at 5’10″. He just can’t play QB at the NFL level at that height … unless he is an extremely rare exception.

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  2. The Lung says:

    Nice rankings.

    However, Case Keenum just does not belong. He is a college system quarterback in a weak conference who has struggled any time he’s ever faced stronger competition. He has very little, if any, redeeming qualities as an NFL prospect and is a late round pick and an NFL backup at best.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      It’s very possible that he’ll fall. At the QB position, I typically don’t put a lot of stock past the QB7 and those guys are often late round prospects.

      But in my ranking system, he is slotted there until I can do more tape review on him. This is a VERY early ranking at this point.

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    • CokeAndBacardi says:

      Eh, picking at his #8 QB is like trying to discredit the #20-25 RB/WR selection. At that point, they’re all fliers.

      I don’t see any reason why Keenum can’t become a Chase Daniel/Matt Flynn/Kevin Kolb-type backup. He’s about the same size as Flynn, one of the most boring college QB’s of all time who is probably going to start somewhere and see a few dollar signs next year.

      I know you didn’t have access to this info when you posted but Keenum ripped apart PSU this afternoon and showed solid accuracy and good enough arm strength.

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      • The Lung says:

        A very wise man once said:

        “However, I wouldn’t go off that second quarter as a template for his NFL ability.”

        Indeed, one quarter or one game shouldn’t be used to project a player in the NFL, but instead his entire body of work. And more often than not, I’ve seen Keenum produce massive numbers in a spread offense, despite being a guy with poor footwork, who can’t read the entire field, stares down his primary target and doesn’t look off defenders.

        That stuff won’t fly in the NFL.

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        • voiceofunreason says:

          Whoa now, you can’t go off one quarter and predict success? Well explain Browning Nagle then. One of the best jet qbs ever and he played one good game in college.

          PS-The funny thing is he might be a top 10 jet qb.

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        • CokeAndBacardi says:

          Ha. Got me. My fiancé is a Houston native and I watched a lot of Keenum in college. Not saying he’s perfect or anything more than an NFL backup. Just that, at the #8 slot for rookie QBs, what are you expecting? That’s Ricky Stanzi going by last year’s draft. Who would you put ahead of Keenum?

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  3. Robertbobson says:

    “most importantly, a high character individual” that’s cute to say and all, but it’s not true. Being a high character guy is not the most important aspect of an NFL recruit. There are plenty of high character guys in the CFL and the arena league. I’m happy that TRich is a high character guy, but I’m happier he’s agile wrecking ball.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Well, of course, they have to be a highly capable college player with outstanding fantasy impact to even make the list otherwise I’d just have a list of high character players. But character is something that still factors into my equation and when you have a player like Richardson who has a world of talent, and with that comes not only that talent but also high character and the work ethic to go with it, that makes a high selection that much easier.

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      • Robert Bobson says:

        Oh, character certainly factors in the equation. I was calling bs on it being the “most important” factor. :)

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  4. tebow says:

    i have the 3rd pick in my dynasty draft and i need backs after charles and morneo blew their knees out and turner is old.if two backs go off the board should i take blackmen or the 3rd best back? my wr/te are the best in the league so i dunno what i should do

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    • tstafford says:

      You should always take the best player available (BPA) while ignoring team need. Also you should follow the forums leading up to your draft for near minute-to-minute input and advice.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      What is your format? PPR?

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  5. tstafford says:

    Jeff – Thanks for giving us an early look.

    My two cents:
    - I like Wilson as the RB2. But I see the argument for Miller and Polk. Probably comes down to where folks land and dynasty owners’ tolerance for risk/reward.
    - Not a fan of any QB in this draft past RGIII. I’ll let others chase the next Andy Dalton.
    - Higher on Kendall Wright than Alshon Jeffrey. But I keep flip flopping.
    - Sanu could be the gem of round two. Depending on how things fall, I’d take him as high as 1.10.

    Love your stuff and keep it coming.

    Tim (tstafford)

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I’m torn on Jeffery right now. My gut is screaming at me that this guy is a bust waiting to happen. Need to watch more tape

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  6. Brad says:

    EJ Manuel will not enter this years draft.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Figured that he’d return to school .. it’s in his best interest this year. I hadn’t seen an official announcment though.

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  7. Tebow, I agree with Stafford you should take the BPA in most cases. What is your QB situation like? Maybe you take Luck or RG3 at #3. A lot depends on the landing spots for these players, though.

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  8. tebow says:

    i have brady as my qb so im fine there i really need rbs and as you know in a dynasty young rbs are like gold. thanks for the feedback.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      There’s nothing wrong with looking at a trade too if you could land a younger productive back with that pick from a team that needs a QB or wants Blackmon.

      At this early point, I think Polk actually has the best NFL skill set but I haven’t watched enough tape on Lamar Miller yet. Last time I watched tape on Miller, I was’t overly impressed with his hips or what I call “swivel” … but I reserve my final opinion until I’ve watched more.

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  9. C.Crane says:

    I love it. Getting me too excited and its only January 3rd. Only about another 115 days till the draft. Sigh…

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      It’s never too soon to start. Stay tuned here, sign up on our forums and stay “excited” all through the off-season.

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  10. Richard says:

    Which 2 player should I keep among Denarius Moore, Daniel Thomas, Kevin Smith, Isaac Redman, Jacquizz Rodgers and Jarred Cook in a PPR league.

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I’d lean toward Moore and Rodgers, but Thomas, Smith and Redman all get consideration. With the aging Turner, Rodgers’ role is yet undetermined and he could have nice upside although he’s too small to be an every down back. He could have Sproles upside.

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  11. Kevin says:

    Where would you suggest i go with the 5th pick in a keeper league rookie draft

    qbs: p manning / r fitzpatrick / m flynn
    rbs: a peterson / ryan grant / j starks / d thomas / d carter / j ringer
    wrs: d moore / s johnson / l robinson / v brown / a brown / j ford / g little
    tes: gronk / v davis

    lets assume luck richardson and blackmon will be gone and go from there

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  12. DLF_Jeff says:

    Sure looks like best player avail. (BPA) to me. Your WRs are young and decent but you’re going to need help at RB and QB. At TE, you’re just fine. Might even consider trading V. Davis for either an early draft pick or, better yet, a known commodity at RB … someone like Ahmad Bradshaw, Lynch (probably too late), Murray, Helu, etc.

    At the 1.05, I’d probably be looking at RGIII or the best RB in terms of talent … not necessarily drafted situation.

    You’ll likely be looking at backs like Polk, Miller or Wilson at that pick. I wouldn’t go with the second WR off the board or the 3rd QB at 1.05 though.

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  13. Jay says:

    Assuming Richardson, Blackmon & Luck go 1,2,3 (in some order), I have the #4 pick. Where would you go in a PPR league?

    QB: A. Rodgers/M. Schaub
    RB: Forte/Bush/Tate/LeShoure/Ryan Williams/D.Carter
    WR/TE: J.Simpson/D.McCluster/D.Moore/M.Thomas/E.Sanders/V.Davis

    Do I reach for Michael Floyd at #4?

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    • tstafford says:

      Depends on how the draft shakes out, but your pick is a good candidate to trade for a proven WR.

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      • DLF_Jeff says:

        You need WRs but a reach for Floyd is a big reach. 2nd WRs off the board beyond NFL pick #5 don’t pan out very well. I’d trade that pick to someone that has good WRs. Can you get Nicks, Cruz, Bowe or maybe even someone like Julio Jones or Jordy Nelson?

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  14. Boobam13 says:

    I have a great problem – picks #1,3,4,5 in this upcoming dynasty rookie draft…here is my squad, who whould I target? Guy at #2 really like Blackmon if it makes a difference! BTW it is PPR. Thanks

    QB – Big Ben, Grossman, Gabert
    RB – Mendy, J-Stew, Lynch, Helu
    WR – Mike Williams (Tampa), Maclin, Britt, Hankerson, Collie, Breaston, Santana Moss

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Well … you have more needs at WR than anyplace else and perhaps some need at QB. You’ll get either Luck or Griffin at 3 or 4 so no need to go there. It’s all about Richardson or Blackmon.

      Both are great prospects but I lean toward your PPR system and Blackmon at this juncture. If I had to guess in your situation, I see this:

      1. Blackmon
      2. Richardson
      3. Luck
      4. Polk
      5. Miller or Griffin

      From the research I’ve done in the last couple of days, I’m favoring Polk over Miller at this point.

      Having Luck and Griffin would be a horrible thing for you.

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  15. Pedro Cervantes says:

    I’m in a 32 team dynasty league where I was able to trade Matt flynn for a pick that turned into the # 3 pick. I’m hoping blackmon is there for me. But if he isn’t, say Richardson and blackmon go 1st and 2nd who should I target? I like Polk but I’m not sure if that’s too high for him or there’s a better back or WR to take there. I also have the 16th pick, I kno its deeper into the draft but maybe you can just give me w few names to target there.
    My team- non ppr

    Rodgers
    Forte
    Bradshaw
    Kevin smith
    Knox
    Marshall
    Olsen

    Bench
    Jacoby Jones
    Alex green
    Brandon saine
    Kyle Williams
    Orlovsky
    Paulsen

    Thanks and keep up the great work!

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      I’d look at Luck. It’s not often that you could get one of the best prospects in almost 20 years. I understand that it isn’t exciting when you already have Rodgers but he’d be hard to pass up. I have a #4 pick in one league and I’ll take any of the top 3 if they fall to me at #4. I wouldn’t look WR at #4 though.

      If you are looking at RB definitely, I think it will come down to Miller or Polk. Wilson could be a good pick depending on his situation. Look for my next update after I finish watching RB tape.

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  16. tebow says:

    hey fellas i have another question for u guys. i have had ridley on my bench all year,what do guys think of him as a dynasty prospect?

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      Long term prognosis is hard to say in New England. Really not much difference that in GB, NO or IND. That said, I think Ridley has the most long term value and of the top of my head, I believe BGE is a free agent in 2012 so Ridley could be a great buy low RB.

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  17. bigd says:

    a question about qbs. i’m picking 1.09 in a 10 team league. i have palmer tebow ponder(r) as keepers. palmer will be terrific as he has a full season with his young wr corp. ponder is my rookie that i have to keep from this years draft. tebow is my delema. where i pick i could nail a good prospect at qb since rb and wr will be scavanged over. but i’m intriguied with tebow. he reminds me of a young roger staubach. tom landry said when keeping staubach over morton. “you can teach a runner to pass, but you can’t teach a passer to run. given the god given talent that roger possess, he’ll be great someday.”….with elway and the right qb coach in the offseason, tebow could be to just based on his talent as a footbal player? should i look at rb/wr in the rookie draft and stay put with the young guys i have? the only 2 big name FA will be romo and rivers?

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    • DLF_Jeff says:

      At 1.09 … which is a place I’ve picked relatively often, I usually go best player available … and I’ve found that it is frequently a QB. QBs like Roethlisberger, Matt Stafford, Sam Bradford, can often be taken there while others focus on the other skill positions.

      WRs at 1.09 are truly a crap shoot (I’ll be breaking down the last 10 years of rookie drafts shortly) and a RB at that spot isn’t much better. Sometimes you can get some intriguing names at RB with 1.09 (Ray Rice, Kendall Hunter, Frank Gore) but unless you are sure on a guy, take what could be the best rookie QB if there is a good one available or a top named free agent. I got Jordy Nelson off the wire with 2.01 pick this last year.

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  18. Marcus says:

    any thoughts on Dwayne Allen the tight end out of Clemson? Is he the top tight end if he declares? If not then who is?

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  19. Aric says:

    Just wondering what your reservations are on Richardson. Standard “hasn’t played a down” concerns or is it something specific? My scouting of him (1.1, 1.4 in my upcoming draft. leaning heavily in favor of him with 1.1) has been overwhelmingly positive and I see him as about as close to a “sure thing” as is possible. Just wanted to compare notes.

    Additionally, what would you say is my biggest position of need, assuming I snag richardson first overall?

    QB: Rivers, Freeman, Locker
    WR: C. Johnson, Britt, S. Rice, DHB, Little
    RB: Mathews, Spiller, K. Smith, Ridley (Richardson)
    TE: Hernandez, Cook, O. Daniels

    Post-Blackmon WRs are sketch… risk it? Luck/RG3? Miller/Polk?

    Thanks

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    • Cyrus says:

      I’m in a similar boat with the 1.01 and 1.03. Definitely taking Richardson at 1.01 due to scarcity of feature backs and his talent level. I think you should took, as all of your RB’s are still in a RBBC of some sort.

      Your WR are long on upside but probably let you down this year, other than Megatron. If WR’s score a lot in your format, you could always take Blackmon at 1.01 (he will be a stud) and then take one of the RB’s at 1.04. (You could trade down from 1.01 to 1.02 and get something extra, as well)

      With those three QB, I don’t see the need for Luck. Maybe Luck would have more upside, but you have three guys I like and think will improve next year.

      Probably your best bet is to find a way to move up to 1.02 to take both Richardson and Blackmon. WR is a real need and I don’t see anyone worth the 1.04. Alternatively, you could trade down from 1.04 to 1.06-1.09 and take Floyd or Jeffrey.

      I’ve got Andre/Colston/Harvin/Wayne/DHB as my WR’s (start 3 PPR), so I definitely need Richardson more than Blackmon. That 1.03 is killing me though– I have Brady at QB, so I don’t “need” Luck. I love Blackmon’s talent. I like some of the other RB’s like Miller, and RB is a need, but I view them as bigger risks than Blackmon.

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  20. CJH says:

    I’m in a competitive, fairly high stakes, 10 team partial ppr dynasty league. I drafted a good team two years ago and after a ton of trades I think I have a solid roster for a few years to come. I won this year in fact. Now I’m looking for advice on what moves to make this offseason with an eye on the rookies listed above.

    Here are the starting positions in the league (with a roster size of 27 to start the year):

    QB; QB
    RB; RB
    RB/WR
    WR; WR; WR
    WR/TE
    TE

    Here is my roster:

    QB: Rodgers; Brees; Freeman; Flynn; Josh Johnson

    RB: McFadden; Mendenhall; Sproles; Steven Jackson; J. Stewart; Vereen; Ridley

    WR: G. Jennings; H. Nicks; D. Bryant; Desean Jackson; D. Thomas (Den); M. Crabtree; M. Williams; James Jones; R. Cobb; J. Baldwin (KC); LaFell

    TE: A. Hernandez; D. Keller

    We have to head into the draft with five empty rosters spots (I have three empty spots now, and will be dropping LaFell, and probably Josh Johnson, unless he signs as a starter).

    I also have the 8th and 10th picks in the first round this next year and two first round picks in the 2013 draft (order to be determined).

    I think it’s clear that I could use another running back and/or wide receiver and I would like to move both of my 2012 first round picks to pick up a stud. There is a chance that I could get Adrian Peterson with both 2012 first round picks as the team that has him has expressed interest and is in major rebuilding mode, but I’m wondering if anyone thinks I would be better served (or if the trade falls through) trying to trade up for Richardson, Blackmon, or even Luck and Griffin (I don’t need a qb, but these two could be solid for years to come, and in a ten team, two qb starting league – top qb’s are very valuable trading chips); or just sit with my picks and take the second or third running back and wide receiver off the board.

    Any input would be appreciated.

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  21. Todd U says:

    I’m new to dynasty and have inherited a terrible team. I have the 1.3 pick this year. Would giving up that pick be too much for a player like Cam Newton? I also have the 1.9 pick this year through a trade. Is giving that one up for Marshawn Lynch too much? Are either not enough?
    Thanks in advance!

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    • CJH says:

      Depends on your league, and your current qb situation. But personally, I prefer the proven commodity (or in this case, somewhat proven commodity) to a draft pick, and if you were to place Cam in the draft next year, what pick would he probably go at? My guess is in the top three. With that logic, I think it is worth it, though I know other people prefer picks.

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      • Todd U says:

        Do you think Lynch is worth a late 1st rounder? I’m feeling like yes.
        On Brees – yeah, if you start 2qb’s you are seriously stacked. Wow.

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        • CJH says:

          Boarderline for me. If you are desparate for RB’s then maybe, though I would try to get a third or fourth rounder in return as well. My gut has his value more in line with a mid- to late – second rounder straight up.

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  22. Todd U says:

    @CJH – I am new to dynasty, but I would think you could package Brees with a 2nd round pick to get into the top 2 (just not sure u have 1). There, I would take Richardson. Your receivers are pretty good (& young). I love DThomas & Cobb moving forward. You could also look at tempting someone with Flynn & that #8 pick to move up to the top 3. I love his chances next year with a new team.
    Re: All Day. He has a major knee injury. I’m releasing him in my keeper league. I would not trade for him at this point. Possibly before the season if he has recovered well but too many unknowns with that. He may never be the same.

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    • CJH says:

      I am dangling Flynn out there, no takers yet – probably once he signs. I actually think All Day will be back close to full by the end of next year, just a hunch, though he is getting older in general. I wouldnt over pay for him, but if I can get him on the cheap I think it is worth the risk.

      In regards to Brees, we start two qb’s, so I’m holding onto him and Rodgers for the long haul.

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  23. raindogs says:

    Going into my third season in a 12 team keeper/dynasty league (champ this year). I have pick 1.04 and 2.01 in the upcoming draft. The league is non-ppr, pts for all TD’s. Also,there are keeper restrictions that bar us from keeping more than 3 QB’s, 4 RB’s and 5 wr’s. Starting lineups can be qb-rb-rb-wr-wr-wr-te-k-d, qb-rb-rb-wr-wr-te-te-k-d, or qb-rb-wr-wr-wr-wr-te-k-d.

    With the 1.04 pick should I stand pat and take the BPA, try and trade up to secure Luck or Richardson, or trade the pick for a proven player or future picks??

    My forcasted keepers

    QB-Rivers
    RB-Foster, S. Jackson, J. Stewart, K. Hunter,
    WR-Colsten, J. Nelson, S. Johnson, S. Rice, B. Marshall
    TE-V. Davis
    DEF-49ers

    Thanks DLF!

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  24. Jorge M says:

    I have the top pick going into my 3rd year keeper league draft next season. I have Brees, so I don’t need Luck at all. My biggest need on my team is WR’s. I’ve already been offered a trade for my #1 pick. I would get Kenny Britt and my choice of either Brandon Lloyd or Heyward Bey, plus I’d get his first round pick which is #4 overall. Should I pull the trigger? Best case scenario would be also being able to take Blackmon with the #4 pick that I would acquire in the trade. Or could possibly take Alshon or Trent Richardson with that #4 pick, if Blackmon is off the board.

    Thanks!
    Jorge

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    • Cyrus says:

      I would take Britt and DHB and the #4. (Choosing DHB over Lloyd due to age and possible upside, although Lloyd could be great short term).

      I don’t see you getting Blackmon or Richardson with that pick, but you would get either Luck or one of the #2 RB’s in Miller/Polk/Wilson.

      You are effectively filling the WR need with two WR’s and still getting a rookie RB.

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  25. DCR says:

    I have 1.03 and 1.06 in the upcoming draft. Targeting Luck at #3, if 4-5 goes something like Miller and Polk, would it be crazy to target RGIII at #6 rather than gambling on the 2nd WR available?

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    • Cyrus says:

      Don’t forget about David Wilson. I love his talent. Take BPA at #3 (Richardson, Blackmon, Luck, whoever falls to you) and if it is Luck, go with a RB at #6 over the #2 WR.

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  26. anthony says:

    Hey man,
    I’m new to the site and I was reading through the comments, the keeper league I’m in was just created this year and the commish said we get to keep 8 in our roster of 16 spots.
    I won the chapionship this season and I was just looking over a few sites with what they had to say about some upcoming rookies. I just want some feedback on draft strategy for next season since we keep 8, and some “slighty” elite players might get dropped from teams, also how high should rookies be drafted?
    Is there a specific format keeper/dynasty leagues should set up? (# of players kept, # of seasons you can keep a player)

    I have bookmarked the site and will continue to visit. Good work.

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  27. Brad says:

    I have the 10th pick in my 10 team league this upcoming season (I won the league this past season) and the league is also a salary cap league. I have a deal on the table to swap Julio Jones for the #1 pick ( I want Blackmon Bad). I am stacked at wr with Megatron, Nicks, AJ Green and Dez Bryant (thanks to some great deals I made this past season). Should I pull the trigger on this deal and end up with the #1, #10 and #11 spots in the draft. We only hold a 3 round rookie draft. Also, I have another deal which involves me sending Cam Newton (Brees is my starter) and I would get back Jamaal Charles and swap my #10 pick for the #3 overall pick. My RBs are Rice, Best, Blount, Spiller, Hillis. PPR League. Thanks

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  28. Alan Bauerle says:

    Hey Jeff how are ya? Anyway my team is garbage.
    Hassleback/ Tebow/Kapernick
    Jacobs/Blount/Battle/Tomlinsion/Ridley/Scott/Powell/
    Wallace/S. Johnson/Branch/Barden/Willians(sf)/Price
    VDavis/Cook
    Nugent
    Jets D
    I have the 3rd pick in 12 team dynasty league ppr. Also the 2cnd n 3rd pick in the second. I need 2 gems for 2cnd rd cause looks like I’m gettin luck or rgIII. Lil help please.thanks

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  29. Joya Meador says:

    No winners tonight except maybe Romney. He was the most profession-al.wow gold

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  30. MRQ says:

    Hey guys GREAT article and discussion. Looks like I will have 1.5 and 1.10 this year(2012) what are your thoughts for 1.10? I’m taking BA RB at 1.5(have stafford for QB) thinking WR at 1.10- keep pick or trade it for player/2013 pick?
    Thanks

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  31. The Lung says:

    And Case Keenum goes undrafted.

    I certainly have made my share of egregious misses over the years, but this is one thing I was quite certain about, and for good reason.

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