The Dynasty Stock Market: Timing is Everything

Ryan McDowell

The weekly Dynasty Stock Market features not only price checks, but provides player features, draft projections, trade values or a variety of other relevant topics each week to make sure we’re covering everything our premium content followers are demanding.

Later tonight, the fantasy playoffs will begin for many of us as quarterback Peyton Manning leads the Broncos into Oakland to face the Raiders in what should be a blowout win. Hopefully, Manning along with wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker get your fantasy week off to a strong start.

For those of you who were unfortunate enough to miss the playoffs, now is the time to begin analyzing your team, finding ways to improve for 2013. Last week, we took a look at some strategies owners should implement as they work the dynasty waiver wire this off-season. While manipulating the waiver wire can be very important, it limits owners to a relatively small group of players. To be successful in dynasty and in order to acquire certain players, owners must be proficient in the skill of trading.

When attempting to complete a dynasty trade, there are numerous factors owners must consider: status of their own fantasy team, players to target, the challenge of dealing with other owners, and many others. One of the most important factors in finalizing a trade is often overlooked…timing. Each player’s value is fluid, constantly fluctuating just as the seasons change.

For dynasty owners, there are only two segments of a calendar year, regular season and off-season. The current value of your dynasty assets is greatly dependent on which portion of the year we are enjoying. During the season, owners value production. In the off-season, the focus moves to potential. Today, we will take a look at some groups of dynasty assets and how timing plays a role in potential trades.

Rookie Draft Picks

Best time to sell

Even in a year with a rookie draft class that is expected to be very weak as compared to other recent classes, owners will have a chance to unload their draft picks. The most opportune time to pawn off those unwanted or unneeded picks is during the period beginning with the NFL combine in late February up until the kickoff of your league’s rookie draft. While many owners in your league may follow college football and consider themselves expert talent scouts, the rookie hype kicks into full swing on a Sunday morning in Indianapolis, the site of the annual rookie scouting combine. As speedy running back and tall, lanky wide receivers display their skills, dynasty owners begin drooling over the idea of adding that player to their NFL (and fantasy) team. The ultimate time to make a move is once the rookie draft has actually started and the value of the incoming rookie class is first decided. Savvy owners should take advantage of this and sell draft picks that may not fit into their long-term plan.

Best time to buy

On the other hand, the ideal time to acquire draft picks is as far away from the draft as possible. Many owners are willing to sell out in an effort to win during the regular season. That means using anything of value without hurting their current starting lineup. The easiest way to do that is by completing deals involving draft picks for players. Whether your team is in contention or not, you should always be willing to consider acquiring draft picks, with the idea mentioned above that those picks will increase in value as the draft nears. I know many owners have been eyeing the 2014 draft class as one that stands out. While this may be true, it is not even necessary to have a specific class or player in mind when acquiring picks. Stock up on picks and let the rookie hype do the rest.

Aging Veterans

Best time to sell

This is probably an easy one. The best time to trade away those older veteran players is during the regular season when they can make the difference between an owner winning or losing a championship. As soon as the off-season begins, the value of any player over 30 years of age plummets. For many of those players, Autumn marks the beginning of the regular season and the return of their value, but for some, the value will never rise back to its peak. Players like Andre Johnson, Tom Brady and Frank Gore will all decrease over the next few weeks as regular seasons end and off-seasons begin. If you own any of these players or players like them, do not sell low this off-season. Take the gamble that they will be one of the lucky ones that sees their value rise back once we hit September.

Best time to buy

If the above is true and long time fantasy studs see their value dip just because the off-season begins, perceptive owners should be ready to pounce. The best and cheapest time to buy aging veterans is during the off-season. You may be able to acquire the final piece of your championship puzzle by February. Assess your team’s needs and seek out the owners that become infatuated with potential over production. There are always a few. I know, I am one of them.

Rising Stars

Best time to sell

The first two categories were pretty easy to decipher. This one is more of a challenge, which is fitting, since it is always a challenge to determine which hyped young player will be the next Demaryius Thomas or which may just be the next Titus Young. As I mentioned above, older players are discounted and discarded during the off-season and the up-and-coming players become all the rage. Owners find a sense of pride in identifying and acquiring the next big thing. Because of that, the best time to sell a young, rising star is during the off-season. Be careful though, you might be selling the next fantasy stud. Dynasty owners have watched games, done the research and had countless conversations on the DLF forums and Twitter. If there is a player you truly believe in, those are the ones to hold.

Best time to buy

I can see both sides of this argument. If a young, rising star is performing well, but not quite well enough to earn the role as a weekly fantasy starter, the time to buy that player is during the regular season. Acquiring a player like Josh Gordon, who has been very good, but somewhat inconsistent may be easier as a team looks to make a playoff run and requires a safer option at wide receiver. If a young player has performed as a top 30 player at running back or wide receiver, his owners will be expecting a jump up to RB1/WR1 status and that player’s asking price is through the roof. At the same time, if you truly believe a player is on the brink of superstardom, you have to acquire him before it’s too late. I am reminded of a trade that took place in my league early last off-season involving players that were rising stars at that time. One owner traded Beanie Wells for Torrey Smith. Smith was coming off of an inconsistent rookie season that saw him make a few big plays, while Wells had just posted his best season of his career. This was a trade that made many owners stop and consider the value of each player. Most thought Wells did not bring enough value. But, the owner believed in Torrey Smith and paid whatever price it took, before his value increased. Although Smith has been inconsistent again this season, it certainly worked out and the owner added value to his team.

Not all players considered to be rising stars become fantasy studs. For this category, it comes down to your evaluation of each specific player. One thing is certain, during the off-season, dynasty owners fall in love with young up-and-coming players. You have to decide how to take advantage of that fact.

Fantasy Studs

Best time to sell

As I mentioned above, owners value production during the regular season more so than during the off-season, Because of that, if you do decide to part with that stud player, the regular season and specifically, at your league’s trade deadline, is the prototypical time to pull off a blockbuster deal. If you are moving on from a stud player, it is likely that you are a building team, meaning your trade targets would fit with the criteria listed above – rookie draft picks and rising stars. Both make good regular season trade targets and that fits with your building strategy. If you are looking to move a stud player, running back Arian Foster for example, you are likely to get better offers once the regular season begins. Owners often nitpick even the best players in the game during the off-season, yet once the games begin, it is hard to argue against stellar production and fantasy points being produced.

Best time to buy

As you could guess at this point, the finest time to attain a dynasty stud is during the off-season. Owners quickly forget the touchdowns, the long runs and acrobatic catches. Those images are replaced with assessing age and number of quality years remaining. While this type of information is important, it is easy to overthink these things and talk ourselves into valuing a rising star more than a proven stud. Acquiring a stud can actually be done somewhat easily by packaging multiple players in a deal. I made a huge trade very soon before the 2012 regular season began. Many felt I overpaid, but I was comfortable with my depth and did not think I would have the same trade opportunity once the season began. In an eight player deal, I sent Matt Ryan, Antonio Brown, Kendall Wright, Jacquizz Rodgers and Lestar Jean packing. In exchange, I received AJ Green, Jermaine Gresham and Jon Baldwin. While I am a big fan of some of the players I gave up, I would do this deal again easily to acquire Green. Although my leaguemate in this case is a great dynasty owner, he went on to miss the playoffs while I finished as the top overall seed. I believe if I had waited, the same deal may not have been available during the regular season.

Stashes

Best time to sell

Last week, I discussed several players that were candidates to snag off your waiver wire and stash during the off-season. The great thing about these players is you literally have nothing invested in them. If they do nothing and are cut before a preseason game, you’ve lost nothing. On the other hand, if there is some positive buzz and the player starts earning more practice reps, you suddenly have a hot commodity on your hands. For dynasty owners, much of the off-season, especially when training camps are underway, is spent searching for the next sleeper. A player that no one in your league has heard of. A player just sitting on the waiver wire waiting to be plucked and placed on your roster. A player like Marques Colston, who went from a little known wide receiver/tight end hybrid to a top dynasty wide receiver very quickly. A player like Tony Romo, who was available in every league before being named the starting quarterback of America’s Team. The bad news is for every Marques Colston and Tony Romo, there are dozens of players like Kareem Huggins and Max Hall.

If a player is earning this hype, the first step is to see for yourself if it is deserved. With NFL Network and Twitter, training camp and preseason action is completely covered. There is really no reason to take anyone else’s word for it when it comes to these relatively unknown players. The information is available for all. With the understanding that most of these players will not pan out, if you can add value to your team by flipping one of your stashes in a trade, you should most likely do that. Earlier, in the most recent preseason, one rookie who impressed many others and myself was wide receiver Rod Streater. He was performing well in preseason games and seemed to have an opportunity for playing time. I immediately stashed Streater in every league I could. Owners in most dynasty leagues did the same thing, but one move caught my attention. In one league, an owner gave up a future first round pick for Streater. This was overkill. While I still like Streater, I still view him as a dynasty stash and someone I would likely cash in if I had the opportunity.

Best time to buy

There really is never a good time to acquire a stash player via trade. Stashes are what they are – lottery tickets you add to your team via the waiver wire. In the example above, while I was quick to add Streater, I did miss out on him in several leagues. It would not have been wise to make trade offers for him in those leagues. Based on the hype alone, he would have required sending a second, or even a first round pick, in exchange for. That makes no sense. Pay close attention to preseason action, and be quick to hit your waiver wire when the buzz begins. But if you miss out on a player, in most cases, it is better to be patient as the situation works itself out.

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ryan mcdowell