Dynasty Stock Market: Off-Season Roster Management
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While many dynasty leagues begin their playoffs in week 14, my main leagues are starting their “second season” this week. All of the planning, research, waiver wire examination, trade exploring and lineup anguish comes to a head this week as the playoffs are underway. For these teams, there is not much left to do but plug in their best lineups and hope things go their way.
I have two leagues where I did not advance to the playoffs. While this is frustrating, I cannot afford to ignore these teams as others play on. For these dynasty teams, now is my chance to take full advantage of my waiver wire. As other teams prepare for week 13 matchups, I am already looking ahead to 2013 in hopes of identifying the next Matt Flynn (you read that right) or Antonio Brown.
Here are some tips I use as I consider the waiver moves that begin my offseason.
1.) Drop your kicker and defense
Most dynasty leagues do not require owners to carry kickers and defenses during the offseason. If this is true of your league, drop them. It is much better to take a chance on a young player who offers much more upside and potential value to the long term prospects of your team.
Team defenses routinely experience great changes in their fantasy production from one year to the next. Many owners held onto the Detroit Lions defense filled with young playmakers after they finished as the top ranked defense in 2011. How’d they fare in 2012? They rank #28 and you probably dropped them weeks ago. Among this season’s top five defenses are the Chicago Bears (you can keep them if it makes you feel better), New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, New York Giants and Houston Texans. Of those five, only the Bears and Patriots finished as top ten defenses in 2011.
2.) Target players who can improve their value during the offseason
This sounds like an obvious task in identifying offseason targets, but owners often get caught up in name value without digging deep. There are a few different ways to find these players:
A.) Injured Reserve
Players who found themselves on the injured reserve list early in the season may have been forgotten about by most owners. Assuming their recovery is on target, these are players who have a great chance to regain their former role. Some examples of these players this year are Oakland wide receiver Jacoby Ford, New England tight end Jake Ballard, Detroit running back Jahvid Best, New Orleans wide receiver Nick Toon, New England running back Jeff Demps, Washington running back Roy Helu, Bengals running back Bernard Scott and Indianapolis wide receiver Austin Collie. Some of these players are long shots to fully recover from their injuries and some are just long shot in every way, but each players is relatively young and possesses fantasy starter upside.
B.) Potential Free Agents
Focusing on players who can improve their dynasty value by moving on and finding a new team is a strategy that many owners practice and can lead you to players like Matt Flynn. During his time at LSU and with the Green Bay Packers, Flynn was never a player who particularly impressed me. He did not strike me as a future NFL starter and was not a player I targeted on any of my dynasty teams until a year ago. I, like most of you, had observed the trend of young backup quarterbacks on potent offenses being rewarded with large free agent contracts. I knew Flynn would be a free agent soon and I recognized that if he followed the same trend as others like Matt Schaub, Kevin Kolb and Matt Hasselbeck, he could soon be starting for someone. I grabbed him in every league I could and waited.
As soon as the Seattle Seahawks signed him, I began shopping him to my quarterback needy league mates. In every instance, I was successful in completing a trade to bring a player I did like to my team. This year’s free agent class is thin when it comes to potential waiver wire targets. Upcoming free agents that could see their dynasty value expand include quarterbacks Jason Campbell and Colt McCoy, running back Kevin Smith, and wide receivers Ramses Barden and Steve Smith, currently of the Rams.
C.) Players Filling a Void
While the high profile free agents would not be available on any dynasty waiver wire, those players that move on to other teams often leave a huge opening on their former team which could be filled by a surprise player. It is difficult to predict this early which players may actually relocate, leaving that void to fill, but here are some of the high profile free agents, along with players that could take over for them: Jets running back Shonn Greene (Bilal Powell), Peyton Hillis (Shaun Draughn, Cyrus Gray), Brian Hartline (Rishard Mathews) Felix Jones (Phillip Tanner, Lance Dunbar), Fred Davis (Logan Paulsen), Greg Jennings (Jarrett Boykin) and Dallas Clark (Luke Stocker).
D.) Under-performing Rookies
Each spring, all dynasty owners have their favorite late round rookie sleepers. Far too often, these rookies do not quickly pay off and end up hitting the waiver wire when owners feel the pressure to win now. Now is your chance to grab your favorite rookie who could improve in their sophomore year. Here are some of my favorites that might be on your waiver wire: Broncos quarterback Brock Osweiler, Chiefs running backs Shaun Draughn and Cyrus Gray, Steelers running back Chris Rainey, Patriots running back Brandon Bolden, Colts wide receiver LaVon Brazil, Bills wide receiver TJ Graham, Bengals wide receiver Marvin Jones, Raiders wide receivers Juron Criner and Rod Streater, Chargers tight end Ladarius Green, and Titans tight end Taylor Thompson.
3.) Eliminate Roster Cloggers
I mentioned this idea a few weeks ago, but this theory becomes even more important during the offseason. A dynasty owner should not roster a player that they will never start. I contend that the players I mentioned in that article are still unworthy of a roster spot, including Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel, Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez, Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno (after the season), Chargers wide receiver Robert Meachem and many others. Don’t wait until the season begins to clear your roster of these cloggers, do it now and find a potential fantasy starter on your waiver wire.
Follow @RyanMc23 on Twitter.
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