The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) An owner is trying very hard to acquire Trent Richardson.  He has ALF, Bowe, Decker, Amendola and Rudolph that interest me.  What is reasonable to expect for Trent? – Travis in Madison

The Sun, the Moon and the Stars.

In all seriousness, the entire list of players you mention wouldn’t be enough for me to give up Trent Richardson.  He will be in the mix for a top-5 start up selection next year along with the usual suspects.  That’s incredibly valuable.

Richardson and Doug Martin are doing basically what AJ Green did last year – coming in from day one and having fantasy relevance.  Think about the King’s ransom you’d have to give to get Green.  And because of positional value I’d argue that T.Rich should be more costly than Green.

I’m usually of the mind that no player on my team is off-limits for trade talks but it’s fairly hard to conceive of what you’d need to offer me to get T-Rich.  He hits the mark on every aspect – he’s a bell cow back, there is zero competition in Cleveland, he’s ultra-talented, he participates in the passing game and oh yeah he’s 21.

My advice would be to tell the other owner “Thanks but no thanks.”

2.) I’ve been offered Cruz/Woodhead for Leshoure/Hunter.  Seem like I’m giving up too much.  Yes/no?  – Galder in Bilbao Spain

I don’t know that it’s so clear that you’d be giving up too much.

Coming in to 2012, I was suspect of Victor Cruz.  I was worried that he might be a bit of a one hit wonder given the fluky nature of the plays that accumulated a lot of fantasy points in 2011.  I said numerous times that I felt he was a sell high.  I was wrong.

The last few weeks have been disappointing for Cruz, but I’m confident in putting that on Eli Manning not on Cruz.  Frankly, Hakeem Nicks has been terrible as well although PPR owners got bailed out this last week by sheer volume.  I really don’t know what’s wrong with Eli Manning nor do I know what a “dead arm” is.  But what I do know is when I watch the games he’s making bad decisions.  Maybe he has a “dead brain.”

Back to the trade at hand.

You’d easily be getting the best player in my opinion and you’d be giving up two players that hopefully aren’t weekly fantasy starters for most owners.  Neither Mikel Leshoure nor Kendall Hunter is a player that I covet or target in trades.  They’re fine, but nothing extremely special.  Both are guys that I’d be very happy to have as my RB4 but concerned to have as my RB3.  One of them will likely break out and become a viable RB2 but that’s arguably about on par with what Cruz is worth.

It probably comes down to team need.  If you want a top caliber every week WR, then do the deal.  If Cruz would just be a “nice to have” and might not be in your line-up every week, then I’d keep the RBs.  The good thing about RB depth is the injuries pile up and you end up surprised at times by who you’re starting – I’m looking at you Pierre Thomas!

3.) Was trading Gore for the certain 1.01 a good move?  And what is the 1.01 really worth anyway? – Eric in Pennsylvania

Absolutely.  Trading Gore for the 1.01 was a good move.  He’s a declining asset and it strikes me as odd that any owner would offer so much value for him.

Here’s the thing about the 1.01 this year.  It’s likely worth more in trade than it will be as a rookie selection.  I’m already on record as saying I think this draft class is quite weak.  One of our partners, Eric Dickens, has said he thinks the 1.01 in 2013 is basically equivalent to the 1.05 in 2012.  I think that’s about right.  What he means is if you use it to pick a rookie expect to get a player who is similar in value to say David Wilson, Justin Blackmon or Kendall Wright.  Not bad, but not T.Rich or AJ Green either.

My recommendation in your situation is to sit on the pick until May.  They say the only sure things in life are death and taxes, but I’m going to add rookie fever to the list.  Once people are engrossed in the NFL draft process – Kiper, McShay, the Combine, the draft itself – someone in your league will overvalue the 1.01 selection.  At that point you strike and try to get a weekly starter.  It’s too early to tell who that might be but if I was throwing darts in the dark I’d say you should be able to get a Stevie Johnson or Dwayne Bowe level guy without much trouble.  And it’s possible it could net you more.  We’ll know better in May.

4.) Would you trade Reggie Bush for Eric Decker?  – Iker in Spain

Yes, I would.

I’m not confident at all in the Miami running situation.  They have a slew of RBs and that’s always problematic for fantasy owners.  It sort of smells like New Orleans to me where you have so much talent but the workload is spread such that none of them are particularly attractive to start.  The comparison ends there because the talent level of the Saints players far exceeds that of the Miami guys.

Eric Decker is a solid fantasy asset.  He carries the Lord Peyton risk – meaning I’m not sure what he’s worth after Peyton retires.  But who cares?  Right now he’s an every week starter who has frankly out produced Bush even in non-PPR!

I’d do the deal and I wouldn’t look back.  You’d be getting out of a declining value player in favor of a surefire two year starter.  Works for me!

5.) I’m on the cusp of clinching a playoff spot.  I’ve been offered Andre Johnson for my 2013 first.  Johnson would be in the mix as a starter for me, but not a lock.  Would you do the deal?  – Glen in New Jersey

First off, I hope you avoided the worst of the storms.  I spent much of my youth in Cape May and was worried about all of you on the East Coast.  We were fortunate and our home there was spared, but I know others were not so lucky.  Fantasy Football is a good escape from reality for all of us.

As to your question, this is the great quandary of dynasty football.  Do you “go all in?”  There’s a mix of variables in the equation:

• What’s a 2013 first from a playoff team really worth?
• How often will you start Andre Johnson?
• Will he produce sufficiently better than whomever you are benching to warrant giving up the pick?
• Do you have the stomach to do this deal and then get knocked out of the playoffs in round one?  Because that could happen.

Most of those are questions only you can answer.  I’ll tell you that a playoff grade 2013 first isn’t worth a ton to me.  But I’ll also say that Andre isn’t what he once was.  I’m not sure it’s only about his age, I think it’s that Houston just doesn’t throw the ball that much.  They run their offense through Arian Foster and focus on defense.  Seems to be working for them too by the way.

Two weeks ago I traded a 2014 first for Dwayne Bowe on an expiring contract in my SC league.  Essentially I may end up having spent a first for a seven week rental (although I get his RFA rights).  I’m perfectly comfortable with that.  My team is 8-2, has the highest points scored and I have AJ Green, Nicks, Stevie Johnson and Sidney Rice.  But Bowe is much better injury insurance than Rice in my opinion and neither Nicks nor Johnson is the picture of health.  If I never need him that means my studs are all good to go – no complaints there.  If I need him – no regrets there.  At the end of the season I’ll know I did everything I could to win the championship.  I’ll sleep easy knowing that.  And there’s plenty of time to go get another 2014 first if I really want one.  Final point:  I’m surely starting Bowe this week as both Nicks and Rice are on bye.  Could be the win that clinches me the division and a week 14 bye – essentially two wins in one.

6.) When will the IDP rankings be updated? – Jerrod in Texas

Note: I don’t rank for DLF, so I called on our partner Ken Moody to give us the scoop.

The rankings we offer reflect a variety of disciplines and philosophies regarding how dynasty rankings should be handled.  Not all rankers approach the ranking of players with the same perspective and therefore some of the folks doing the rankings simply don’t feel the need to update dynasty rankings as frequently as others.  We are working on some improvements to the ranking tools to improve the functionality to allow the reader the opportunity to exclude certain rankers from the results.  Until then, we will do our best to keep those rankings as updated as possible.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.