Podcast

The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.) I’ve owned Darren McFadden since our league’s start up draft in 2009.  After this latest injury, I’m officially done with him.  What is my best course of action with him?  Trade him now?  Wait until the offseason?  What should I aim for to get in return? Matthew in MN

I feel your pain on this one.  I, too, own DMC in a dynasty league and it is certainly a frustrating experience.

I think that it’s probably okay to trade him whenever you want.  People are going to bake in the injury risk and devalue him regardless so I’d take a good deal when I found one.  I don’t think his price tag is going to move around much based on whether he’s hurt or not.  The expectation will be that he’ll be hurt again at some point anyway.

As to what you could hope to get, that’s a tough one.  I’d like to think I could get a WR1 with question marks for him – say Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald or an aging WR1 like Roddy White.  Trading him for a running back will be tougher, but there I’d look for CJ Spiller, DeMarco Murray or Jonathan Stewart depending on your taste.

At the end of the day, you’re likely to take a haircut on trading DMC.  While I understand the desire to dump him, chances are you will get 80 cents on the dollar.  But if you are done with him, then you’re done with him.

2.) Been offered Ahmad Bradshaw for Justin Blackmon.  Should I take it?  – Martin in NY

I would.

Generally speaking, it’s quite hard to acquire a legit RB2/3 and I think that’s what you’d be getting in Ahmad Bradshaw.  Of all the players in that range he’s one of my least favorites, but he puts up the numbers and can be a valuable fantasy asset.

The issues with Bradshaw are the injuries and the risk of David Wilson emerging.  It’s the typical Giants move to bottle up Wilson for his rookie year.  They tend to do this, so I wouldn’t assume that means they don’t think he’s a capable player.  I could easily see the Giants situation turning in to something similar to the Fred Jackson and  CJ Spiller RBBC.  If that’s the case, both Bradshaw and Wilson will continue to have fantasy flex appeal.

Justin Blackmon is a player I felt was overvalued from draft time.  Dynasty owners desperately wanted another Julio Jones or AJ Green and Blackmon was the obvious target of their affection.  He’s done little since coming in to the league to change my opinion, but receivers do tend to develop slowly.  I’d be happy to own him, but I wouldn’t pass on the chance to acquire a player I might legitimately start on a week-to-week basis such as Bradshaw.

3.) Is Ryan Lindley worth rostering? – Bob in Mexico

Unless you’re in a 30 plus roster spot league, I don’t think you should own him.

Ryan Lindley has a fairly clear path to playing time given the mess that is the Arizona quarterback situation, but he’s just not that good.  Realistically, in normal fantasy leagues there are usually starting quarterbacks on the waiver wire and even if Lindley became a starter, he should be one of the ones on the wire.

There simply have to be other prospects on the wire that have more fantasy potential than Lindley.  For me, when I’m filing that last roster slot in a deep league I go for a home run – and Lindley just doesn’t have home run potential in my opinion.

4.) I’ve been offered Tony Romo and Kenny Britt for RG3.  Yes?  Vic in parts unknown

Wow, that’s a tough one.

I think I’d pass because I’m just not confident in Tony Romo at all.  He’s a match-up QBBC guy.  I’d be indifferent to owning Romo vs. guys like Matt Schaub or Andy Dalton.  And that’s not really saying much.  The problem with Romo is that people likely value him quite a bit above that level purely on reputation and the perception that he is on a high powered offense with weapons around him.

Kenny Britt is the gambler’s player if there ever was one.  I’ve watched just about every Titans snap this year and I can’t tell you exactly what to expect from Britt.  On the one hand, he may be on the mend from a serious injury and will bounce back to form.  Or on the other, he’s sort of the new Sidney Rice and will never reclaim his spot in the fantasy elite.  He flashes greatness now and again, but we need to see the consistency return.  It would be extremely difficult to be starting Britt right now other than as an injury/bye-week guy.

The only reason to do this deal is if you believe RGIII’s quick start was a fluke.  I don’t.  I liked RGIII coming in to the draft and I like him more now.  If I was going to deal him, I’d want at least one player that had concrete value and I don’t think Romo and Britt count.

5.) Other than DLF, what sites do you visit and why? Sean in Kansas

Obviously as a staffer at DLF my heart is here, but there are many great sites out there.  DLF is certainly the preeminent place for dynasty knowledge and discussion, but there’s more to fantasy than just that.

A few of my personal favorites:

www.4for4.com – The folks at 4for4 have rankings nailed.  These guys win award after award for giving the best advice on start/sit in the business.  This is my first year using their ranks and my efficiency percentages are off the charts.  I can’t recommend them enough.

Editor’s note: Josh Moore from 4for4 is one the genuinely best people in the business. If you like supporting good people with good sites, you can’t go wrong with Josh and 4for4.

www.profootballfocus.com – These guys really know stats.  The Premium Stats package is amazing but is only for the geeks out there.  It’s complicated but rewarding to use.  I love it and rely heavily on it for my analysis and articles.  I couldn’t be without it.  It’s hand and glove for me with NFL Rewind, which I use to analyze games I can’t catch on Sunday.

www.footballguys.com – This is the best all-purpose site in my opinion.  The writers at FBG are some of the best in the industry – Bloom, Waldman and Bramel jump to mind immediately.  They also have a tremendous schedule of Podcasts, which makes my twice daily dog walk more enjoyable!

There are many, many more.  This business just keeps growing and attracting intelligent, committed folks.  It never ceases to amaze me how much people love fantasy.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.

18 Comments

18 Comments

  1. Sensei John Kreese

    November 8, 2012 at 8:13 am

    Alright, so I finally acquired Randall Cobb (on contract through 2014), who has been the primary object of my affection since April. This is the story of what was needed to procure his services.

    Mike Wallace (contract would have expired at the end of the season)
    Kyle Rudloph (2014)
    Ronnie Hillman (2015)
    2013 first and second round rookie picks (probably the 1.7 or worse)

    I’ve been taking a ton of heat for this move, but I feel that if you get a chance to get a premium player, you take it.

    2013 starting wr core (I consistently start 4 wr and 1 RB)

    Julio Jones
    AJ Green
    Percy Harvin
    Randall Cobb

    With this being the end result, do you guys think that I gave too much?

    • bob serviceman

      November 8, 2012 at 8:45 am

      Yes – you paid a lot of 1 dude. You may get good returns right away, but it could be costly down the line.

    • Cyrus

      November 8, 2012 at 9:30 am

      Way too much.

      Rudolph has hit a slump, but he was a 2nd round pick in my draft. I think he is worth at least that. Hillman was a 1st.

      So you gave up two firsts, two seconds and Wallace to get Cobb. If Cobb rises to the level of Julio Jones, AJ Green and Harvin, I guess you paid face value for him. Otherwise, you overpaid.

      In my league, you can extend or franchise players with expiring contracts. If Wallace is an Unrestricted FA at the end of the year, I am fine ignoring him. If he is not, you grossly overpaid.

      I’m just not sold on Cobb continuing this hot streak when everyone is healthy (excluding Jennings, who will be gone next year). He has been good, but I don’t think he is a top 5 WR yet, which is what you paid.

    • Larry T

      November 8, 2012 at 9:36 am

      That was a very expensive acquisition! Will it be worth it only time will tell, but you had your heart set on getting him and that can be considered “Mission Accomplished”. Did you over pay? IMO, absolutely. But you got what you wanted and sometimes you are forced to pay a premium. It might be a short term benefit, but as Bob already indicated, you might be paying off this purchase for years to come…..

      • Sensei John Kreese

        November 8, 2012 at 10:26 am

        Cyrus, yes you are right.

        In our league, each team is able to franchise one expiring contract. I am already franchising Harvin. So, really take out Wallace, I do not start him and would have lost him at the end of the year. If i were to write an article at DLF, it would be about proper management of franchised players in contract leagues. I would have gotten nothing for Wallace, otherwise.

        The way i see it, I traded a first and a second, at the back end of what looks to be a thoroughly mediocre rookie draft, a backup tight end and a 20 year old lottery ticket for a guy who I believe will be a top six receiver come draft time next year.

        • Cyrus

          November 8, 2012 at 11:29 am

          I still think that is a lot to pay. Until Cobb proves himself as a top 6 WR, I think you overpaid.

          I also question your management of Wallace, as I don’t think you got back value for him. I completely agree with trading a player you cannot franchise for anything that brings you value (say, a 3rd or 2nd round pick)… but if you don’t get enough value, don’t trade him.

          There are two additional ways of measuring value:
          1- If contending, he brings value to your team this year in the playoffs
          2- Regardless of whether you are contending, he brings value as a potential FA.

          That is, if Wallace is on your team, he is thrown into the FA pool and available for you to bid on. Also, even if you don’t win the bid, he takes up cap space (or draft position, if you just have a FA draft) for your competitors.

          This might not affect you much, or you can employ the strategy of giving a “franchise tag” player to another team for your advantage. For example, if the other owner has a player you like but doesn’t value him (lets say Chris Johnson) to franchise, but you like Chris Johnson– you can give him someone he wants to franchise to get Chris Johnson in the FA pool.

          But now I am just off on several tangents. What matters is that you made a trade for a player that you believe in. I think you paid more than his going rate at this time, but understand if you really want him.

    • VoiceofUnreason

      November 8, 2012 at 10:31 am

      People always want to trade for a players who is playing well, naturally. When you do that you are always buying high. Other than qbs, guys go up and down. Look at Lesean McCoy or Calvin Johnson. No major injury but not even close to last years points. A long way of saying you should have traded for him in the offseason or last year. You missed the boat and overpaid by an insane amount. I like him but if the other wrs, te and rb weren’t so poor right now he wouldn’t be getting so many looks/tds. I’m not convinced he’s a long-term #1wr and for that price he better be top 2 or 3 at least.

      • Sensei John Kreese

        November 8, 2012 at 10:43 am

        Agree to disagree. This time last year, Greg Jennings was looked at as a top 5 WR. If this trade backfires on me, I’ll be the first to admit it. I don’t place a high premium on draft picks and although Hillman and Rudolph are nice prospects, its not enough of a deterrent for me to pass up on a potential superstar.

        • Cyrus

          November 8, 2012 at 11:32 am

          See, Jennings is an example of how WR’s fluctuate in value. While you are looking at Cobb as “future Jennings” (I assume), we can point to Jennings as “future Cobb.”

          (That said, I think Cobb is younger with similar talent and will be productive for several years, but Jennings is still productive, just injured).

          Also, Jennings is a great example of what Voice is saying to do– I bought low on Jennings now, and will wait for him to get healthy and leave the Packers. Some risk involved, but I have a potential top 15 WR that I paid a relatively low price on.

    • Ross

      November 8, 2012 at 1:38 pm

      I got Cobb for my first round pick, I’m in second place, the week before he blew up on StL. Seeing this as his price tag in someone else’s league makes me think that I stole him…which I believe I did anyway.

  2. Alan Bauerle

    November 8, 2012 at 10:02 am

    I feel u have great talent now at wr. Yes u gave up alot of picks but would you be starting those picks at all? I guess the Wallace move was a lil much but you probably wouldn’t have started Wallace at all w that lineup of recievers. What is your qb, rb, te situation like? If your good all around then don’t worry. It cost u a ton but u got your man.

    • Sensei John Kreese

      November 8, 2012 at 10:37 am

      Thanks Alan, like I said above, no, I do not start Wallace.

      My starting lineup for 2013 should look like

      Rodgers or Brees
      Foster/Spiller
      Green/Harvin/Julio/Cobb
      TE- Who knows? total crapshoot outside of Gronk.

      I also have Sproles expiring, but who is also eligible to be franchised by another team. Either i can ride him, on my bench, and get nothing for him after the season, or I can trade him now, get something back, and let another owner franchise him. So, soon Ill be posting about how I gave Sproles away.

  3. Jon

    November 8, 2012 at 10:05 am

    Do you guys update your dynasty rankings during the year?

  4. Jon Lambrecht

    November 8, 2012 at 10:52 am

    I doubt highly that many owners of Spiller, Stewart, Murray, Fitz, White, or Nicks would trade them straight up for DMC. He wasn’t hurt and was underperforming. Now that he is injured AGAIN, it is weird to say but; his value isn’t even on the same level as Chris Johnson, Forte, or even McGahee… which is pretty bad. That ship has sailed. About 5-6 weeks ago, I’d have traded Chris Johnson and something for DMC, Now… I wouldn’t do it straight up. With all the man crushes on Nicks and Stewart… No way in heck are most people trading them for the oft injured and underperforming DMC in my opinion.

    If you own DMC, he is a hold. Walk back off the plank. You will likely not get 80 cents on the dollar. More likely 50-60 cents. Wait on him to come back, wait on the off season… bottom line, wait. Don’t sell now. It is by far the worst time you could do so. I know you say you are DONE with him… take a deep breath and move him later then.

  5. Burnonedown

    November 8, 2012 at 11:06 am

    I was just offered that exact trade, bradshaw for blackmon. I had bradshaw. i countered with greene and a 2013 rnd 6 for blackmon and a 2013 rnd 3.

  6. Jake

    November 8, 2012 at 2:10 pm

    Been offered Arian Foster and a 1st round pick (possibly top 5) for RG3. My other QB is Big Ben and my other backs are Peterson, MJD, Wilson and Ivory. What do you think?

    • Ross

      November 8, 2012 at 3:49 pm

      Why haven’t you already accepted that. IMO, that is so lopsided in your favor it’s not even close.

  7. Jgoods

    November 9, 2012 at 12:49 am

    I drafted both Luck and RG3 to equal one starter this year. So far it has worked out great. 14 team 4 keeper league. Gave up RG3 and Keller for AJ Green and Tony G. Having Luck playing so well I think its a no brainier. Am I wrong?

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