11 Responses to “The Law of Averages”

  1. Robert Bralski says:

    Great article! I needed some motivation to keep putting trade offers out there.

  2. Aaron Katyl says:

    Nice timing…looking for a bit of advice from anyone willing to give it. I feel I have a team that can compete for the next 2-3 years, but I am being battered with injuries at RB, here is my team:

    Rodgers, Fitzpatrick
    MJD, Mendy, Dwyer, Daryl Richardson/Pead, Helu
    Colston, Demaryius Thomas, Titus Young, Torrey Smith, Jerome Simpson
    Celek

    The Doug Martin is looking to move him, and I have some interest as he looks to be the real deal and will likely be a 20-touch back for the forseeable future. Would you:

    A) Try and move Colston, MJD or Mendy/Dwyer for Martin

    B) Rather than depleting depth, make a bigger move and deal Rodgers for Peyton, Doug Martin, and Alshon Jeffrey

    I am so torn on this as I drafted Rodgers in our startup to be my cornerstone, but I have taken the advice of some on here and am trying to look at a 3 year window where I think Peyton will produce at close to Rodgers level, and I can keep my depth at other positions…any thoughts would be appreciated…good luck to all!!

    • John Tucker MD says:

      It depends on what the other team is trying to do.. rebuild or win now.. I would try and offer MJD + a wr and see if that works… but if the person you’re trying to trade with is a real Fantasy Wizard he may have his own ideas

  3. Charles Austin says:

    I don’t think mathematically proven means what you think it means.

    • Adam says:

      I totally agree. That ruined the article for me. The whole concept that 1 in 10 trade offers are statistically proven is nonsense. Add in that the law of averages is mathematical nonsense and well, you’ve got a bad article.

      This article would be much better if the message was simply, “Don’t wait for offers; be proactive and send fair and thoughtful trades so your league-mates don’t find you to be an annoying trade-spammer.” Then include a couple of good examples from leagues you follow to round it out.

      • brian says:

        I agree. There have been several articles as of late that in and of themselves, have the ability to be decent/good articles. It’s almost like the authors feel like they need a hook/gimmick/clever insight in order to make the article work.

        Making the edits you suggested would have made a world of difference.

        KEEP IT SIMPLE!

  4. Eric says:

    The law of averages does not exist. If you flip a coin 99 times and it’s heads 99 times, the probability of it landing on tails the 100th is still 50/50. The coin has no memory nor does it care.

    • Jacob Feldman says:

      What you’re describing isn’t what is called the “Law of Averages” which is also known as the “Law of Large Numbers”. What you’re describing is the concept of independent events. You are correct that the coin doesn’t have any memory. However, the more and more that you do something, the closer your experimental probability (what is happening) will get to your theoretical probability (what should happen). You could get 10 heads in a row on a coin, and the next flip will always be .5 probability of a heads;however, if you flip it 1000 times it should be close to 500 and 500.

    • Doug Veatch says:

      The law of averages and flipping a coin are 2 different animals altogether. A coin flip has a predetermined probability. 50/50. A sales pitch or trade offer has so many different moving parts. Take for instance who is offering you the trade. The level of their football knowledge, sales ability, and so on.

  5. Keith Fortier says:

    Great article. Noone does dynasty better than DLF. Noone! Also, Boiler Room.. Top 25 movie easy. Solid.

    I’m trying to move Peyton and was waiting for offers. Time to get moving.

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