The Britt Effect

Doug Veatch Posted On October 23, 2012

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Kenny Britt is one of the most intriguing players in the NFL. Despite numerous arrests, and multiple injuries, fantasy owners around the globe are still enamored with this guy. Myself included. He is a huge target, a legitimate deep threat, has great hands, runs the entire route tree and is the definition of a true WR1 when he’s out there on the field. I know what everyone is thinking right now. Another article about how much potential Kenny Britt has right? Wrong. We already know what kind of production he provides to our fantasy lineups when healthy. What I want to focus on is the sudden resurgence of Chris Johnson over the past 2 weeks. I call it “The Britt Effect”.

Chris Johnson is a guy that most dynasty owners left for dead no more than 3 weeks ago. Most owners literally couldn’t get this guy off their rosters fast enough. They were willing to take anything they possibly could to squeak out what little value he had left at the time. Dubbed CJ?K by just about everyone in our DLF Forums, owners were out of their minds frustrated with this guy. I can’t say that I blame them. He went from being an absolute matchup nightmare on a weekly basis, to not even being able to comfortably start the guy at all. Why? It’s a question I’ve been pondering for the better part of a year now. The only logical explanation I can provide you is the absence of Kenny Britt. He keeps defenses honest.

I believe that we’ve seen a spike in CJ2K’s (yeah, I called him CJ2K) numbers over the past 2 weeks because Britt is finally a self proclaimed 95% healthy again. So to test my hypothesis I went all the way back to Britt’s rookie season and dove head first into some stats. The numbers are quite staggering.

2009-2012 w/ Kenny Britt in the lineup (36 games)

Rushing: 736 car/3514 yds/26 tds – 4.77 yards per carry

Receiving: 109 rec/857 yds/3 tds – 7.86 yards per reception

2009-2012 w/o Kenny Britt in the lineup (19 games)

Rushing: 310 car/1605 yds/5 tds – 5.17 yards per carry

Receiving: 59 rec/420 yds/0 tds – 7.11 yards per reception

While the yards per carry are 0.40 higher when Britt isn’t in the lineup, the yards per catch are 0.75 higher with Britt in there. However, it’s the TD numbers that are absolutely mind blowing. I had to see it to believe it myself. 29 total td’s with Britt in the lineup versus 5 total td’s without Britt in the lineup. That’s a 5.8 to 1 TD ratio, and indisputable evidence of “The Britt Effect”.

Keep in mind that in the 3 games Britt appeared in earlier this season against San Diego, Detroit and Minnesota was on a very limited snap count. Another thing to keep stored in the back of your head is that the first 3 games of the 2011 season CJ2K missed all of training camp and didn’t look like his usual self even with Britt in the lineup. I’m pointing these two things out just to remind you that the numbers are a bit skewed both ways by 3 games. Also, I didn’t use the numbers from Johnson’s rookie season. I felt it wouldn’t be a fair comparison considering the fact that Britt was still a college athlete at the time.

Back to the sudden resurgence of CJ2K. In the last 2 games since Britt has been closer to 100% and on a normal snap count, CJ2K has put up a stat line of 37/286/2 on the ground and 5/25/0 through the air. This is an output of over double his previous production for the whole 2012 season in only two games. He also put up his first and second touchdowns of the season in week 7. One of them being a beautiful 83 yard TD scamper, reminding fantasy owners everywhere how explosive this guy can be. It could have been a 4 TD week if Jamie Harper didn’t vulture 2 goal line touchdowns right from under his nose. That’s the CJ2K we all know and love to have in our starting lineups on Sundays.

If you were one of the many that bought CJ2K at an extreme low give yourself a giant pat on the back. If you were a seller, it may have cost you a shot at the title this year. If you refused to believe CJ2K was no longer a legitimate RB1 and kept him even under the direst of circumstances, I applaud you. Your patience it seems has been rewarded.

To me, it looks like CJ2K’s success is directly correlated with Britt being out there on the field. It seems if you’re a CJ2K owner you’ve got to rout for Britt even if you’re not a fan, or an owner. All I know is this. If Britt is healthy and out on the gridiron on Sunday’s CJ2K is an absolute “must start” according to the numbers. If he’s not, defenses can take Johnson almost completely out the game and force the Titans to beat them through the air. The numbers don’t lie. If I’m a CJ2K owner, I’m praying to the fantasy football gods that Britt stays healthy now and for the foreseeable future. It can’t be just a coincidence that the numbers are that lopsided.

Can it?