The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.
Let’s get to it!
1.) I own Kyle Rudolph, Martellus Bennett and Jason Witten. We can only start one TE. I was offered Robert Turbin for Rudolph, should I take that? Note: I countered with Bennett and that was rejected. – John in Houston
I wouldn’t.
You have some very nice TEs but my favorite is Kyle Rudolph. He’s already a decent weekly option – something you certainly can’t say about Robert Turbin. Your attempted counter was a reasonable one and I’m somewhat surprised it got rejected. Tells me the other owner is specifically targeting Rudolph or is much higher than I am on Turbin.
Given that you can only start one TE, it does make sense to deal either Martellus Bennett or Jason Witten. People are higher on Bennett than I am so I’m not entirely sure what to recommend you target in return. For my teams, I’d take a future second for either of those guys. My guess is others would say I was selling too cheaply.
2.) I’m considering grabbing Nick Foles in a couple of dynasty leagues. What do you think Foles chances of starting for Philly are next year? – Ron in Oregon
For the sake of the Eagles fans, I hope the chances of Nick Foles being the 2013 day one starter are extremely low! I think I’d set the over/under at 3.5 wins if that was to happen.
First off, I don’t think the Eagles are going to make any sort of change. They are 3-2, on top of their division and have beaten solid teams like Baltimore and arch rival New York. There are many, many teams in the NFL that would welcome Vick with open arms. I’m unsure why Andy Reid opened the can of worms.
More importantly, having seen Foles play football, he is the definition of raw. He’s got all the physical tools – size, big arm, etc. However, he is wildly inconsistent and will throw some balls that make you scratch your head. Lest I be too harsh on him, I think he has a decent chance at developing in to a starting NFL player. I just don’t think it happens as quickly as next year and if he’s rushed in I wonder about his fantasy value anyway.
3.) How much (if at all) have you dropped Hakeem Nicks due to the recurring injuries? – Scott from Columbus
As a Hakeem Nicks owner, I feel your pain. It has been a very frustrating start to 2012.
I’m not dropping him much in my standard dynasty rankings. Since his production is so amazing when he’s healthy and there really aren’t guys to move ahead of him, it’s hard to do so. I had him ahead of Julio Jones and Percy Harvin coming in to 2012, he’s behind them now, but that’s not really that big a move. I’d still rather own him than guys like Victor Cruz, Mike Wallace or Demaryius Thomas.
I get a lot of salary cap questions as well and in those leagues I’m dropping him further. He’s not worth paying top dollar for and there are better cost/risk options out there. For example, if I can get Brandon Marshall at 80% of the cost of Nicks, I’m all for it. A year ago I wouldn’t have said that. Many leagues probably have Nicks winding up his rookie contract in the near future. He’s a player I would bid on, but mostly to price enforce rather than to necessarily try to acquire him for my team.
4.) I own Cam Newton and Matt Schaub. I’m a little worried about Newton and I’m thinking about making a trade. What are your thoughts? – Brian in Phoenix
Cam Newton was a risky player to draft early in start-ups this year. He went in the first round of any number of mocks I did and it was concerning to me – the trend we saw at the end of last year is continuing in to this one.
His completion percentage (58%) isn’t where you want it to be and he’s not generating the passing yards you’d want out of an elite quarterback. What is particularly concerning to me is that his only good games have come on the back of his rushing yards. So far if he doesn’t get you meaningful points on the ground, you are in for a disappointment. I think the hope was that he would have a 2010 Vick-type season where you got the combination of a decent quarterback and the bonus of the rushing. So far that’s not happening.
As for making a move, I’m all for it under the right circumstances. I suspect it’s quite possible that people aren’t all that down on Cam. He has the allure of amazing stats and it takes time for that to completely dissipate. If I was a contender, I’d be fine offering Cam for Drew Brees, Tom Brady or Matt Ryan. And I think I might be able to ask for a sweetener back in that deal as well. If I was in a bit of a rebuild situation, I’d probably look to the Andrew Luck owner to craft a deal.
5.) When do you give up on rookie WRs? I’m still holding Arrelious Benn who I took in the middle of the first round and I want to free up the roster spot. – Bill in Maine
Good question!
Specifically on Arrelious Benn, you can safely cut him at this point. They are only using him sparingly – less than 50% of the offensive plays and he’s not getting many targets. I’m very disappointed by Benn who I rated quite highly in 2010. I’m not entirely sure what derailed him, but possibly the ACL tear at the end of his rookie season is the culprit. Right before that he appeared to be coming on nicely.
To your more general question about when to give up on rookie receivers, there isn’t a clear cut answer. At a minimum you have to wait patiently through their rookie year. For example, Michael Floyd owners are probably a tad nervous, but they need to stay the course.
The wide receiver position is difficult to learn in the NFL and the playbook is far more complicated than college systems. Additionally, you need to look at which wide receiver position they are being asked to play. For example, as a Benn owner you surely recall Tampa Mike’s breakout rookie season. He was asked to play the X position most of that season. In most offenses that has a less complicated set of routes as compared to the Z position.
I like to monitor the stats as well – snap count (and how it’s trending), what position he’s lining up at and, of course, targets. These numbers give us some approximation of how the coaches and quarterback feel about the wide receiver’s development curve.
If we must have a rule of thumb, I will say I wouldn’t cut any receiver I had highly regarded in the first two years (short of some catastrophic injury), but I’m certainly monitoring them closely from day one.
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.
