The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1.)  I was offered Percy Harvin ($14) for Trent Richardson ($25), should I take it?  My running backs are DMC, MJD and Rashard Mendenhall. My receivers are Dez Bryant,Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt, Justin Blackmon, Brandon LaFell, Randall Cobb and Austin Collie.  We have a $325 cap in-season ($200 off-season) and start 2RB/3WR. – Joe in Detroit

Thanks for the Salary Cap question.  These are my favorites.

I’d pass for sure on this one.  While I suppose an argument could be made that under certain extreme circumstances team needs warrant this, you don’t need Percy Harvin badly at all.  Trent Richardson is the superior dynasty asset and you aren’t exactly stacked at running back.

Freeing up $11 would be nice, but it’s only 3% of your cap.  You mention in your question the cap goes down during the off-season, but not what that means for you.  I can’t imagine, however, it would mean you’ll need to cut T-Rich.  He’d be the first player I’d keep (ahead of DMC).

2.)  Eight team, 2QB, SC league ($1K cap).  Been offered Andrew Luck ($104,4) for Antonio Brown ($48,3), CJ Spiller ($30,1), Stephen Hill ($11,5) and Jacquizz Rodgers ($21,4).  It’s easy to retain players if you want.  My other quarterbacks are Philip Rivers and Jay Cutler.  Take it? – Ben in California

Editor’s Note: Ben’s question hit the mailbag before Sunday.

Ben, I hope you didn’t take that trade before Sunday!  CJ Spiller is going to be the hottest commodity in dynasty this week.  He’s going to be the topic of many trade discussions because most owners have been sitting on him and have other viable options at running back.  It’s only so often a bench player vaults up like this.

While you are definitely weak at quarterback, it’s not that bad.  This is an 8-team, 2QB league, so 16 of them starters.  Jay Cutler is a weekly starter in a 16-team regular league.  Of course you’d like to get stronger, but this is just too pricey of a deal.

Let’s breakdown your players here quickly:

• CJ Spiller – I’ve been holding and hoping for a while now.  There were definitely some dark days in there and even the strongest willed among us had some private debates with ourselves.  But talent usually wins out.  He’s going to make it very hard for Gailey to put him back in his old, limited role.  I expect a timeshare with Fred Jackson, but Spiller will get sufficient touches to be an upside RB2.  If you look at his stat line from Sunday, he only had 18 touches.  However, he’s not going to play the Chiefs every week either.
• Jacquizz Rodgers – Now is decidedly not the time to sell Quizz.  Michael Turner is in decline and the ramp is fairly steep.  Over the first two games his YPC is below 3.  Quizz and Jason Snelling are going to get their chances.  Hang tight.
• Antonio Brown – He’s already proven himself to be a legit NFL caliber player.  And he’s continued to perform nicely this year.  I’d have no problem with you moving him because he is way overpriced on that contract.  But you need to get good value for him from an owner who can reasonably afford him.
• Stephen Hill – The Jets need receiver help in the worst way.  He’s got talent and physical ability.  I’d keep the upside you have here especially on the favorable rookie contract.

While I understand the desire to acquire (that rhymes) Andrew Luck, I think you need to work this deal pretty hard because, as constructed, it’s an overpay.

3.)  The Drew Brees owner is cracking.  I think I can go after him with Ryan, plus a little.  Worth it and what should I add?  – Eddie in Florida

I’m not sure I’d do this right now.  I think this deal would have made sense in the preseason before we got a good look at the reconstructed and invigorated Atlanta passing attack.  I wasn’t the highest on Matt Ryan, but I’ve needed to adjust my rankings – I like what I’ve seen.

Do I think Drew Brees still out scores Ryan in 2012?  Yes, I do.  Do I think it’s worth giving up Ryan “plus a little?”  No, I don’t.  Remember, you are taking on a player who is five years older in Brees.  He has plenty left in the tank, but you’re set for years and years with Ryan.  While I preach not overthinking the age issue, it has to be given some degree of consideration.

If you’re in a serious title run and you want to add some points by doing this deal, then fine.  However, the extra piece needs to be nominal – no more than a future second for example.

4.) I asked you last week about CJ2K and I’ll ask you again.  Last week I was sick of him.  Now I’m really sick of him.  What can be done here?  – Jason in SFO

Oh boy.

Well first off, I don’t think his value has decreased from last week to this week – I’m not sure it had any room to go down!  The time to sell CJ2K (and the smart move) was apparently this off-season.

I’ve had the misfortune to watch every play of both Titans games.  This is going to be an extremely long season for them.  Here’s where we are with CJ2K:

• The o-line is playing below its capabilities.  If they tune it up quickly, he has a chance to put up some useful fantasy numbers.  If they continue to perform the way they have been, he’s going to give you slightly better than what he’s done so far.  I’m somewhat confused as to why Mike Munchack hasn’t been more effective with the o-line.
• Jake Locker is getting very little time to throw the ball.  Even his check downs are rushed and inaccurate.  Several times on Sunday he threw the ball to CJ2K in places where he had to adjust so much he had no chance to advance the ball because the defender was on him immediately after the catch.  We knew Locker had accuracy issues, but they are very evident right now.
• CJ2K is getting old.  By the time the Titans fix these issues his window may be nearly closed.  This is bad for dynasty owners.
• The worst part – there will be good games here and there.  But you won’t know when.  How many would you need in a row at this point before you started him with confidence?  By then your season is ending.

I think at this point the decision is predicated on each owner’s risk tolerance.  Are you a scorned owner?  If you’d start say Peyton Hillis over him if CJ2K had two decent weeks prior, sell him for pennies on the dollar.  In this cas, a future first would seem like a fairly good haul.  On the other hand, if you think he can win back your heart with a couple good outings you should probably hold.

5.) IDP Question

I just traded for James Anderson and plan on flipping him to get younger.  Should I target Aldon Smith, Mychal Kendricks or Bobby Wagner? Are they worth Anderson?  Any others I should consider?  I’m currently rebuilding.  Scoring: TFL=4pts, Sack=3pts, Tackle=2pts – Jonathan in Kuala Lumpur

Special thanks to Steve Wyresmski (@SteveWyremski) for answering this one.

A trade of James Anderson for Aldon Smith, Mychal Kendricks, or Bobby Wagner would be fantastic. Right now, Anderson is in an every down role for the Panthers, but that’s liable to change soon once Luke Keuchly gets his NFL bearings. Secondly, James Anderson is playing the strong side linebacker position, which limits his fantasy upside despite the current every down role. Anderson isn’t likely to be a long-term solid fantasy option given the recent extension he signed with the Panthers. It seems he’ll play the strong side going forward.

Like I said, a trade of Anderson for any of those three would be great. In your format, I’d rank them as you have them. Quite frankly, though, I would be surprised if the owner of any of those three would make this trade. I’d target guys like Bruce Carter, Rolando McClain, or even Miles Burris. Basically, any linebacker with upside would be a target for me, but I’d definitely move Anderson.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.