The DLF Mailbag

Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.

Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles.  Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:

1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions

2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.

3.) Your chance of getting your question answered is inversely proportional to the length of the question.

Let’s get to it!

1).  We are slowly introducing keepers, this year keeping four and moving up to five next year.  I am keeping Megatron, Ryan Mathews, Matt Stafford and DeMarco Murray.  Due to Murray’s ‘fragility,’ I was thinking of trying to trade him for AJ Green or Julio.  Seems to me those young stud WRs are a better long term investment, but RBs are scarce.  Do I make this offer? – Aaron in Lincoln, NE

Glad your league is moving toward more and more keepers.  Make sure to tell your league-mates about DLF.

Even for a ten team league, you have a solid set of keepers.  All of them typically go in the first two rounds of dynasty start-ups.  Congrats!

I think you are on the right track in considering trading Murray for either AJ Green or Julio Jones.  There are legitimate reasons to be concerned about Murray’s risk of injury.  Plus either Green or Jones will hold their value longer.  This is certainly the move I’d make in a full dynasty.

I want to point out, however, that the win-now move is to keep Murray.  I’m fairly certain he will go higher in most re-draft formats (this league is sort of in-between) and you will have an easier time finding a dependable WR2 in your draft.  A significant portion of AJ Green and Julio’s dynasty value is the longevity.  But they will likely be outscored by a number of WRs taken after them (e.g. Welker, Roddy, Andre Johnson) in dynasty start-ups.

You can’t make a bad call on this.  If you do keep Murray, I think I’d burn a pick a little earlier than normal on Felix Jones.  I advise against handcuffing in dynasty, but your situation is a tad different.

2.) I’ve put together a team that I feel can “win now.”  Rice/Forte, Marshall/Andre Johnson/White, Gates.  My weakness is QB (Cutler/Schaub).  Knowing how much quarterbacks are valued do I try to acquire an elite one or stick with my mediocre two? – MJ in Cleveland

I’m not sure I’d even call Cutler and Schaub mediocre, it’s worse than that.  Cutler is probably a mediocre QB2 and Schaub is worthy only of backing up a stud like Brees, Brady, or A.Rod.  It’s going to be very, very hard to win a league playing the match-ups with this pair.

You don’t mention what assets you have that could be used to acquire a better QB option.  None of your WRs are going to pull a ton of value in a trade, nor is Gates.  You probably shouldn’t move either Rice or Forte since those are the cornerstones of your team.

I will say this – I wouldn’t be trading away any future first or second round rookie picks.  Your team is teetering on the edge of needing a rebuild.  AJ/White/Gates are all declining dynasty assets and NFL players.  Combine that with the mess at QB.

Crazy idea – since your team is on the decline and heading toward rebuild, why not make one last Hail Mary?  If I look at the QBs outside of the usual suspects, the one guy that strikes me could put up elite numbers in 2012 is Michael Vick.  If you get him on the cheap and pair him with Cutler, I think you may have a shot.

 3.)  I’m currently slotted to draft 11th in a 16 team contract dynasty league, w/ PTDs worth 4 pts. Are any QBs worth taking in the first round at 11 over any of the first tier RBs considering 4 pt PTDs?  My current plan is to wait on Matt Ryan and take him at pick #54.  – Ben in Pittsburgh

Absolutely, there are QBs worth taking in the first.  If anything, I think QB becomes more important in a 16-team league.

There’s zero chance you get A-Rod at that slot, but taking either of Stafford or Cam would be within the norm.  As much as I like Brees and Brady, they’d be a reach at that point.  Brees would be a great get in the second.  And I’m high enough on Brady that if he was the only QB left of this group when I was OTC in round two, I’d take him but I’d know I was reaching.

I haven’t done any 16-team mocks this year so I can’t say with any certainty if Ryan will be there at #54.  He’s going later than that in 12-team drafts.  My gut tells me he should be there, but that by taking him there you are getting the worst of both worlds.  Instead of getting a high end RB2/WR2, you’re getting a mediocre QB1.  This is why I’d rather take Brees in the second and a guy like Bradshaw, Spiller or Colston at #54.

4.) I have the 1.02 and 1.04 rookie picks.  My team is weak at both RB and QB.  I’m certain that T.Rich goes 1.01 and I will take Doug Martin at 1.02.  With Eli currently at the helm, am I better off going with a RB/WR at 1.04 or taking Luck or Griffin?  And if QB, which one?  I’m fairly certain Wilson goes 1.03.  – Curious in Charleston, WV

Note:  Curious told me in his submission that this is a non-PPR.  That helps explain (somewhat) the apparent reach for David Wilson. 

Long time readers will know exactly what I’m about to say!

You should go Best Player Available (BPA) at every pick in your rookie draft and break ties based on team need and personal preference.  I have no problem with you taking Doug Martin at 1.02 in a non-PPR.  I’d do the same in that format, especially since you have Eli.

The BPA approach also means you should take QB at 1.04.  So your question nets down to who to take of Luck or RG3.  I’m actually somewhat surprised this debate hasn’t raged on a little more passionately – sort of like the AJ Green vs. Julio debate last year.

For me the answer is Luck.  I’d make that selection recognizing that I will probably watch RG3 put up better rookie numbers – his situation is superior.  I expect RG3 will put up low end QB1 numbers while Luck will be a mediocre QB2 in 2012.

What tips the scale for me is safety.  I see Luck as nearly bust proof.  (I’m knocking on wood right now!)  I project Luck’s floor as something approximating Matt Ryan and his ceiling as nearly unlimited.  If you haven’t seen him play, just wait.  He’s everything a QB (and a leader) ought to be.

5.) Last week you opened with the fact that Brandon Jacobs is practically worthless in dynasty and I agree.  What advice would you give for moving stalwart vets in dynasty?  In my case I have S.Jax as solid RB2 going into the season as primary Rams workhorse, but his trade value is little more than a prospect RB such as Tate or Hunter. – JJ from parts unknown

Right.

There’s really very little you can do to get decent value for aging players – especially RBs.  Just ask the Gore and Turner owners how they feel.  At least with S-Jax you’ll get solid 2012 production.

Your only hope of trading a player like this for value is to wait until the middle of the season.  Inevitably a team in your league will be in contention and lose a key guy to injury.  That’s when you can try to flip an S-Jax type for a 2013 first (assuming you’re not in contention).

One thing to remember is that there isn’t anything wrong with riding a guy in to the ground.  Dynasty owners are very averse to this, I think in part because they just don’t want to look like they were foolish for not trading a player earlier.  If you have a team in contention and the best you can get for Gore or Turner is a future second, why take it?  Just accept your lumps and enjoy the production you’re getting.  There odds of the second hitting are quite low anyway.

Editor’s Note:  Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as dlf_tims.