Rookie Q&A with Josh Norris

Eric Dickens

At some point in early 2012, I stumbled across the twitter account of one Josh Norris (@JoshNorris). The content was primarily NFL draft-related and just like any die-hard dynasty owner, I soaked it all in and wanted more. As the date of the draft got closer, Josh released a link to his “Big Board” of prospects that included his grading system and by-positional rankings.  You can find his final pre-draft version here.

As I did more research into the upcoming draft and dynasty prospects, I found myself coming back to Josh’s rankings often. For me, the ability to dive into someone else’s rankings, along with their personal grading system is a rare commodity. In this Q & A, I get Josh’s thoughts on the situational impact on some of the rookies, as well as talking about his personal rankings.

DLF: Josh, thanks for taking the time to answer some questions. As I said above, I really appreciate your willingness to put your rankings and grades out there for the masses to see and dissect.  Tell us a little bit more about yourself and what you do.

Josh:  Absolutely. First, I define my football side as an evaluator, never a scout. I even try to stay away from using the word “scouting.” Honestly, I am not sure why and it does not bother me if other people do, but just from spending a short time in a professional scouting department as an intern, I try to distance myself from that professional label. I do not produce the same work those professionals do, mainly due to different resources, audiences, and instructions.

The internship with the Rams scouting department came because I graduated from the same college as Billy Devaney (Elon University). Since I majored in broadcast and new media communications, there are plenty of Youtube videos/episodes where I breakdown and discuss  certain prospects for a student run television show, One on One Sports. Even though I will surely be embarrassed by them in a few years, they are likely what landed me the internship in the first place. In short, I learned so much (about evaluation and the NFL process in general) in those few weeks with the Rams staff and am grateful for their time and patience.

Either due to their appreciation or my persistence, which likely verged on annoyance, Mr. Devaney invited me back to spend the 2011 Draft in the Rams War Room. Despite a 100+ degree fever caused by infected wisdom teeth, it was another enjoyable and eye-opening experience.

Since, I have tried to break into the field of player evaluation, both at the NFL and media levels. I have met and connected with some great people along the way including Chad Reuter, Evan Silva, “Mr.” Matt Waldman, Dane Brugler, Wes Bunting, and many many others. Each has been very helpful with advice and/or opportunities; it really is a great community.

DLF: How did you get involved with Rotoworld and where do you see yourself going from here?

Josh:  I’ve asked myself this question before and I think the answer is twitter. Almost from the start, Evan Silva has been really helpful and supportive with whatever advice, opportunities or resources he has. After corresponding for about a year, Evan sent a few twitter followers my way during the Bowl season and threw out the possibility that I could cover the Senior Bowl for them. I offered to also cover the East/West Shrine week and they have yet to tell me to stop sending them content since. I owe an awful lot to the Rotoworld/NBC Sports crew and Evan, especially. For as hard as he works, Evan always seems to have time to answer a few questions or help turn my disjointed thoughts into a concise idea.

I will have an answer for “what is next?” in a couple of weeks. I am incredibly excited about this next opportunity.

DLF: Now that you’ve had a few weeks to take in everything that happened during the draft, what’s the biggest surprise of the draft for you?

Josh:  How little information those of us on the outside know beyond what prospects put on tape. Despite their play on the field holding the largest share of an evaluation, their injury history, character questions, and scheme fit cause extreme grade variance from team-to-team. A draftable player on the field can easily be demoted to a DND (do not draft) or given a lower grade for just one of these three reasons. One of my main goals in the offseason is to improve my knowledge or specific teams’ X’s and O’s in order to understand how prospects might project in their schemes at the next level. So, that factor can somewhat be accounted for by “outsiders,” but injuries and character just cannot.

Each team’s medical staff looks at every target and determines if that will hold up physically. The last thing a GM wants to do is draft a player that will always be fighting injuries. More often than not, those types of players miss extended time and take up a roster spot, not to mention a draft pick. It would be a great benefit to how some inside information on injuries and background checks, instead of having to take the “if there is smoke, maybe there is fire” approach.

That leads me to Chris Polk, who was my third overall running back throughout the process. I understand wear and tear, especially for someone who carried the load during his college career. However, it boggles my mind that a team would rather spend a draft pick on Dan Herron than take a chance on Polk. Even if Polk’s career only lasts the length of his rookie contract, I would be shocked if he doesn’t contribute more than Herron will in his entire career.

In general, I am shocked at the UDFA talent, specifically: Polk, James Brown, Tauren Poole, Lucas Nix, Duke Ihenacho, Ryan Steed, DaJohn Harris, Loni Fangupo, Quentin Saulsberry, Justin Francis, Lance Lewis, and many others. However, I have a feeling I would understand them more if I could ask NFL personnel just one question on each.

DLF: Everyone (including us) has done an Andrew Luck versus RGIII breakdown, so let’s talk about the next tier of quarterbacks.  Who do you like better between Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden and how close is it for you? Which guy do you think ended up in the better situation?

Josh:  I had Ryan Tannehill at number 8 overall and Brandon Weeden at 14 overall as my 3rd and 4th quarterback prospects, respectfully. So, they are closer than most have them, but also much higher. For reference, Luck was my top player with a “rare” grade of 7.5 and RGIII was sixth overall. To answer your question, I prefer Tannehill mainly (and simply) because of his comfort and movement in the pocket, age and experience with anticipation throws. I also believe he ended up in a better situation, despite possibly having less talented weapons around him. In my opinion, Tannehill will start earlier and more effectively than many led on during the draft process.

More than rankings with quarterbacks, I believe the real distinction is how many quality starters someone feels will come from each class. Of the 2012 group, I firmly believe there will be four quality starters, hence why four of them were in my top 14.

DLF: In your pre-draft rankings you have Russell Wilson a couple of spots ahead of Ryan Lindley. Would you rank them the same way now or has their respective landing spots changed it for you?

Josh:  Absolutely would rank them the same way. I would not be surprised in the least if Russell Wilson starts a game or two this year and/or sees extended time next season. With that said, I do like both of their landing spots. Ryan Lindley needs to get rid of that hitch in his first drop step and obviously gain some consistency in his decision making and accuracy.

DLF: I know you have been impressed with Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin for a while now. What makes him special and do you see him making an impact in his rookie season?

Josh:  Martin should start immediately. There have been many comparisons to Ray Rice, and that will continue under Schiano, but I see more Jonathan Stewart. With excellent balance, underrated wiggle, overlooked straight-line speed and the ability to stay on the field for all three downs, Martin is an absolute stud. OROY should be a goal of his.

DLF: Many dynasty owners will be faced with the decision of Isaiah Pead or Ronnie Hillman in the late first or early second round of their rookie drafts. Who would you advise them to take and why? How much of an impact does their landing spots make on their potential production?

Josh:  I prefer Pead much more. At Cincinnati, he seemed to produce almost one big play every game, and not just from the backfield. Pead was a very productive kick returner, punt returner and slot receiver to go along with his typical running back duties. I will say, Pead’s burst in and out of cuts did not impress me, but it consistently was enough versus college competition and the senior bowl. Hillman loves the lateral jump cut too much for my liking. Sure, it results in some big plays but also resulted in plenty of TFLs.

DLF: Lamar Miller and Chris Polk are both running backs who fell much further than expected at the draft. How should a dynasty owner approach drafting each of these guys and what do you expect from them?

Josh: Obviously because he was drafted, take Miller first. In a clear running lane and free of contact at the second level, Miller is a home run hitter, but fails to consistently make that first man miss in the hole or stay up on first contact. Polk isn’t guaranteed to make the roster. Like I said before, he is talented, but may only last the length of his rookie deal. Polk does offer more receiving skills, but at the same time he showed very little in terms of pass protection.

DLF: Who is your favorite “sleeper” running back from this class? 

Josh:  Chiefs running back Cyrus Gray and Bucs running back Michael Smith. Gray offers great one cut upfield ability between the tackles, but stretches outside runs too far. For a smaller back, Smith is comfortable between the tackles and quickly gets to the second level and beyond. He’s an excellent athlete and should have a better pro than college career.

DLF: Kendall Wright. I don’t think I even need to ask a question here, do I? He’s your top ranked wide receiver and you’ve been a fan for as long as I’ve been following. Can you tell us a little more about what you see from him that impresses you so much?

Josh:  Wright’s combination of lining up from multiple spots and winning at all levels of the field with full speed crisp routes that result in separation is unparalleled in this class. Not even to mention his after the catch ability. Because he separated so easily in college, he rarely faced contested catches, especially when not on the move. One uncommon occurrence was versus Oklahoma linebacker Travis Lewis. Wright made the vertical catch and took a big hit on the way down, but the sample size is small. With that said, Wight also adjusts to poor throws very well, consistently laying out after a quick reaction. The Titans offense is loaded with speed but will not reach its pinnacle until Jake Locker takes over. Act accordingly when news of the Titans plans are revealed closer to the season.

DLF: How much of an impact is scheme for wide receivers? What receivers were helped the most by their situation?

Josh:  In my opinion, scheme matters more for defensive than offensive players. Teams will obviously look for certain skills and abilities that will shine in their offense or fill a hole. I did my best to separate outside WRs and slot WRs, with some overlap. Two standout to me – Bengals’ receiver Marvin Jones and Lions receiver Ryan Broyles. I am not the first, or the last, to talk about Jones, but I am stunned he lasted until the fifth round. He certainly has some Chad Johnson to him, excelling with exaggerated and precise routes while adjusting his body to poor throws. Jones is reliable and strong against physical defenders, but lacks that real vertical ability to stretch the field or run after the catch. Broyles is similar in that he won’t be asked to consistently stretch vertically, but with his burst, Broyles will generate consistent separation from the slot. With Calvin Johnson and Titus Young stretching the field, Broyles should make a living underneath.

DLF: On the flip side, what wide receivers were hurt the most by their situation?

Josh:  I understand the Browns needed a speed element to their offense, but I’m not sure Travis Benjamin is the right fit. Sure, Weeden is used to quick hitting throws, but beyond five yards, Benjamin is quite raw in his route running and comfort making small adjustments to his movements or incoming passes. He is frail and doesn’t play at his straight line speed time.

DLF: Fill in the blank. When we look back on the 2012 WR class in five years, it will be considered ___________________.

Josh:  Homogenous, possibly even from the first WR taken all the way until the end of the fifth round. Draft position wears off quickly once everyone hits the field. This is what happens when the class lacks a true elite receiver – a player from the middle of the pack could emerge in a few years and be the best of the bunch.

DLF: Give me three receivers drafted in the fourth round or later of the NFL Draft who will out-perform their draft position.

Josh:  Chris Givens, who greatly produced with vertical speed and separation on breaking routes despite playing with a noodle-armed quarterback, Marvin Jones, as I stated before, and LaVon Brazill, who Mr. Waldman loves as well. Brazill does not waiver in his routes and put up some highlight reel catches. A very reliable receiver.

DLF: What are your thoughts on the Rams’ Brian Quick and Chris Givens? What are their strengths and weaknesses? Will either of them fill the void at WR1 in St. Louis?

Josh:  As long as Quick gets through some early growing pains and doesn’t let the spotlight overwhelm him, he’s going to be great. Quick is a very aware person, understanding the pressure of playing in the NFL and the jump in talent around him. The deer in the headlights mindset needs to pass quickly. He’ll have drops, but he certainly has the tools to be very productive, just put on his game versus Virginia Tech. A Colston type target in the slot, with length to make contested catches in traffic, could be in his future.

Givens has the speed of a slot receiver with the strength to fight off physical DBs. His routes get a bit rounded and he bobbles a few catches, but Givens is incredibly talented.

I doubt either becomes a true number 1 WR.

DLF: In a recent interview with Matt Waldman, he gives you credit for the way he breaks up the tight end position in his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. (He also recommended we call you ‘Captain,’ but that’s beside the point) Can you explain how you rank the position and why it is so important?

Josh: I may need to review this interview. Currently, many TEs are so effective because of matchups. Just like other positions, the TE label is too general. The move TE/Joker (Hernandez) offers a willingness to block but is more quick footed to separate from LBs or out muscle safeties and have run after catch ability. Inline TEs block well from a three point stance and are balanced when doing it. They can get off a jam at the line and create that small sliver of space at the catch point with physical play or height. The two positions take different skills in my opinion, although there are a few players that cross over.

DLF: You are one of the few analysts who has consistently ranked Dwayne Allen higher than Coby Fleener. Now that they’re both Colts and we know their draft position, do you still see it that way? Could one be more valuable for football purposes while the other enjoys more fantasy success?  

Josh:  I love the combination. In fact, both are potential inline/joker crossovers. I hate to compare anyone to Antonio Gates, but Dwayne Allen is so smooth in his breaks with soft hands at the catch point when leaving his feet that their movements look very similar. Despite the size difference, Coby Fleener is much more of a vertical threat, but did get outmuscled at the catch point (ND’s Blanton). Allen is a better blocker, but moved around in motion himself. The two offer a tremendous amount of formation versatility. Without subbing out players, the Colts can go from two inline TEs to two move TEs (one in the slot, on in motion) with the appropriate skills to fit them. If I was to guess who has the most success, I’d go with Fleener. But don’t sleep on Allen with underneath to intermediate routes.

DLF: I admitted my crush on Ladarius Green to Matt and he said I should temper my expectations. What do you say about Green’s potential in the NFL and does landing in San Diego help him or hurt him?

Josh:  Green is basically a glorified wide receiver. I don’t see a tremendous willingness to block, or success when doing it. Therefore, teams will key on him as solely a receiver, at least early on. He’s raw and lacks a physical side, but he has unquestioned straight line speed and length. Results shouldn’t be immediate, but that doesn’t mean they won’t come.

DLF: This year’s tight end crop doesn’t appear to be very strong. Are there any late round guys that you project having better pro careers than college careers?

Josh:   Honestly, no. I did not have the time/resources to evaluate Taylor Thompson or Adrian Robinson, so I cannot comment on those two popular names. One player I liked during the predraft process was Kevin Koger, but he went undrafted after blowing his achilles only a few weeks before the draft. Koger is a comfortable blocker, especially for his size, coming from Michigan and flashed receiving ability during Shrine week. I don’t think he signed anywhere. So goes the NFL, these types of sad stories happen too frequently.

DLF: What is one piece of advice you have for a wannabe analyst or “scout” such as myself?

Josh:  Watch as much football as you can and formulate an opinion before asking someone that you respect what their judgment is. Being wrong is the best way of realizing how to be right with future evaluations. Hold yourself accountable and don’t be afraid of holding a strong opinion. For example, take Ryan Tannehill. I’ve seen some say he has the tools and potential to certainly be a starting quarterback, but it would not be a shock if he fails. In what situation is that evaluator wrong? Those “fence” opinions don’t fly with decision makers. Being wrong is not a bad thing at all. But above all, be confident in your evaluation and have something to back it up. I always go through at least three exposures (games) for each prospect, and even though it means I may not get to every prospect, I know I am confident in the prospects I have graded.

DLF: Josh, I really appreciate you taking the time to let us in on your rankings and thoughts about the 2012 draft class. I look forward to reading more of your work in the near future.

Josh:  Of course, thanks for giving me the opportunity.

You can find Josh on Twitter at @JoshNorris.