37 Responses to “The DLF Mailbag”

  1. phorts says:

    Thanks for responding to my question. I agree with your assessment as well and think that the only other time the pick(s) might be more valuable is the days and hours leading up to and during the actual league draft. Offers fly around the table, but usually guys are so set in the draft strategy that it takes a pretty significant offer to move them off.

    I for one took advantage of the the hype before the NFL draft (last week) as I was a little worried that the value of the 1.1 might drop in the eyes of my leaguemates if RIchardson where to go to so, STL. While my personal value wouldnt have changed a bit (in fact i like STL alot) I wouldnt have been able to get what i did in return.

    Jimmy Graham, Dem Thomas, Beanie Wells for 1.01/2.7

    In fact, it was the offering owner who said he was worried about the 1.1′s value going UP that provoked him to make the offer now. So, I would have taken that if he went to Denver!

    Thanks again for a great article, I hope my leaguemates dont read it cuz i just traded Beanie for the 1.6 and i’m hoping to get Luck there! (Yeah, so basically i just traded T Rich for Luck/Dem Thomas and J Graham…. WInnah!)

  2. JC says:

    Once again you have exceed expectations Tim!

    Holding the 1.02 in a league where I am desperate for a QB (Ponder/Flynn)I am set on taking Luck at that spot. Another leaguemate (owns the 1.01) told me I am nuts.

    Disagree for the reasons you stated, but also the fact that stud QBs have changed the landscape of not only the NFL but also FF. The Brady’s/Manning’s/Brees’s/Stafford’s come around so seldom and can win you games all by themselves. This coupled with the RB shelf life further my belief that Luck is definitely the pick at 1.01 if you are a rebuild and don’t already have a stud QB.

  3. Steve Moyer says:

    Thinking about passing on Andrew Luck in your 2012 rookie draft? Well, here were the first five picks in our 1998 dynasty league draft:

    1.01 QB Ryan Leaf (“better physical potential”, the owner said)
    1.02 WR Randy Moss (OK, not a bad pick)
    1.03 RB Curtis Enis (um, yeah)
    1.04 RB Robert Holcombe (ditto)
    1.05 QB Peyton Manning (worked out pretty well, I’d say)

    ‘Nuff said.

    • RP says:

      Moss (not a bad pick?) huge risk reward there.. so he smoked some pot….ur doctor or lawyer hasnt im sure.

      everything else is funny-

      …confident enis wasnt talked of like trich talent wise either

  4. Paymon Shokoohi says:

    Great job as always, Tim. I’d like to chime in on question 3. I personally have Trent Richardson as the clear number 1 on my rankings. The ONLY way I would rank Luck over Trent is if you don’t have a franchise QB on your roster. A Trent Richardson doesn’t enter the draft every year. Again, we have to go all the way back to Adrian Peterson to name the last running back that was this talented….that was 5 years ago.

    • RP says:

      just curious…who would you say blew you away RB wise before AP?

      Ricky Williams talent wise until he went in with weak supporting cast. LT in a horrible organization at the time. McFadden wasnt far off from the same hype either.

      They come a lot more often than monster elite qbs no?

      When they talk Luck comparisons they go allll the way back to 98′ and Manning and 83′ (I believe it was 83′)with Elway.

      • Paymon Shokoohi says:

        RP,
        That’s a good question. The last time I was blown away by a running back before Peterson was in 2001 when Ladainian Tomlinson was in the draft. I will admit I was also enamored with Reggie Bush too but not as much as LT.

        Regarding McFadden, I was never a big fan of his. I had R Mendenhall rated as his equal that year. I had them rated as good, not great backs.

        Regarding elite QBs, depends what you mean by elite. There’s elite and then there’s hall of fame elite. HOF QBs are few and far between but then so are HOF running backs.

      • Meens says:

        RP,

        You nailed this one.
        Best Talent since AP gets thrown around like crazy because its convenient to hide behine. Listen I love trent and am not a hater.
        But to act like there wasnt crazy hype this time of year about Ricky Williams, McFadden, Reggie Bush is ridiculous.
        There legitimately hasnt been this much hype about luck since at least Manning, probably before that.

        Trent is probably going to be great, then he’ll be 30 or possibly be over worked and then blow out his knee when he’s entering his age 27 season like his main comparison.

        Then Luck might play another 10 years at an elite level after that.

        Take the Elite QB every time in dynasty
        Take the elite RB every time in redraft

        Winning 101

  5. Hawks Nest says:

    This years rookie fantasy draft top 4 picks seem to hold more value than most. I am in a interesting situation where owners at 1.2 and 1.3 have Stafford & Rogers as their starting qbs. Both are weak teams that earned these draft positions. Trading the picks would be best option for both IMO. Seems they’re both holding which is great for me. At 1.1 I will take Richardson at 1.4 there is a good chance I will trade or get Andrew Luck.

  6. Cyrus Miller says:

    I agree that Richardson is the 1.01.

    I keep seeing this argument regarding the longevity of QB’s that make them more valuable– but that is exactly what makes them less valuable in my eyes.

    We are seeing more and more good QB’s in the league, and the stud QB’s at the top have just added Stafford and Cam, and maybe Bradford, Luck and Griffin this year.

    Chances are, there are teams with more than one good QB in your league who are willing to trade them. The top QB’s are traded often in my leagues, and I traded for Brady, Brees, Stafford and Rivers in several of them, without giving up too much.

    On the other hand, stud RB’s have such a short shelf life that owners don’t want to trade them at their peak. You either have to get lucky and draft them or pay through the nose for them. McCoy was traded this year for MJD and Ingram.

    So yes, Luck is safer and a long term investment, but Richardson will have more value for the next 4-6 years. I side with 4-6 years, you can always trade Richardson for a QB AND other things in 3 years or so. That way you skip the Luck growing pains.

    • Mole says:

      While it pained me to have to give AJ Green for 1.01, I agree that rbs like TRich do not come along every year. When ADP came into the league, I was offered that pick for Maroney and Roy Williams. I said no. I am not making that mistake again.

      I believe this was a lot cheaper price than if I wanted to trade for a stud rb later. While AJ Green is special, another similar wr will come along in a couple years. I dont see a ADP or TRich down the road.

    • Detroitcity says:

      I agree 100%. You find me someone that would’ve trade AP for Brees straight up 4 years ago or even before the 2011 season for that matter. Unless you already have a stud RB like Foster, Rice, Mccoy and are lacking at QB, you should not be selecting Luck over T. Rich IMO

      • Meens says:

        I wouldn’t trade Rogers for anyone in the NFL if that means anything to you. I enjoy a free ticket to the playoffs every year. I’ll just build around him for 10 years.

  7. Cyrus Miller says:

    I am not sold on trading, but someone is offering me something like the 1.06, 2.06 and a 1st next year for the 1.01.

    Take it or ask for something more?

  8. Robert Abele says:

    “Chances are, there are teams with more than one good QB in your league who are willing to trade them. ”

    I have had this experience as well, especially true in 10 team leagues or leagues with multiple flex options, where there’s more depth at the QB position and not so much at RB.

    Trent for me @ 1.1

  9. tebow says:

    who are some of the rbs to look for in 2013? i dont follow college football,i just look at highlights after the season to see the skills on the players that will be drafted

    • DC says:

      I like Marcus Lattimore. Anyone else have any thoughts on his fantasy value for next year? Obviously this depends on a ton of factors like if he declares, stays healthy this year, where he gets drafted, etc. but assuming he stays healthy and enters the draft how would his value at this time next year compare to T-Rich right now?

  10. Steve Moyer says:

    I’ve played this game for a long time and have had the best luck judging WR’s and TE’s. For some reason I can identify a guy who is going to be a great WR/TE in the NFL, and I’ve had good luck identifying the guys who won’t.

    For what it’s worth, I think Blackmon is just OK. I think he will be a solid pro but there is almost no chance he will be a Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald type. I think he will be a poor man’s Anquan Boldin and is going to be overvalued and overdrafted in most dynasty drafts.

    I keep hearing that there is a Big 4 in this draft and that he is one of the four. I think it’s a Big 3 and would consider the other RB’s ahead of Blackmon. Just my 2 cents.

    • Ray says:

      So who do you consider the big 3 ? Luck, T. Rich and …..( RG3, Martin or someone else )?
      What’s your personal read on Cal WR Marvin Jones?

      • Steve Moyer says:

        Yeah, RG3.

        I’m a Cal fan and was always intrigued by Marvin Jones, but his scant college production is not a good sign. Likely just a serviceable receiver, not an impact fantasy guy. A deep, deep sleeper but not draftable in dynasty leagues yet at this point, IMO.

  11. Chris says:

    Look at it this way. Draft Luck and either he starts as your QB1 or sits on the bench.

    For TRich he can be used in one of 2-4 different places in your weekly lineup depending on requirements.

  12. Greg G. says:

    Love the feedback on this thread

  13. Bob Ray says:

    Montee Ball is probably the most obvious right now other than Lattimore. Other potential guys are:

    Henry Josey (Missouri)
    Ronnie Hillman (SDSU)
    Curtis McNeal (USCalifornia)
    Marcus Coker (Iowa)

  14. Robert Schramm says:

    I have a bad team in a 7 year Dynasty format. We are about to start year 3. I have amassed 3 first round picks this year, hoping to turn things around for the back half of the 7 year stint. I am strong at QB with Brees and Dalton but very weak at RB/WR/TE.

    I currently have picks 1.2, 1.7, 1.10

    I expect that Richardson will be off the table after 1.1 so I am considering trading 1.2 and 4.2 for 1.5 and 1.6 This would give me 4 number one picks in the draft… Picks 1.5 1.6, 1.7 and 1.10. Should I do this since I am strong at QB and need so much help in the RB and WR game?

    Also, I have been offered J. Tamme and 1.11 for 1.7. I currently have Winslow and M.Lewis at TE. Should I consider this move down of 4 spots at the end of the first round to add Tamme or is this too much to pay considering how much help I need at RB and WR.

    Any advice is appreciated.

    FYI, PPR, 12 team league.

    Bob

    • Cyrus Miller says:

      I would see what the owner at 1.01 wants, talk to him directly and make sure he is taking Richardson. If he needs QB and has strong RB, he might be amenable to trading down to 1.02. (Or he might throw a curveball and draft Luck).

      If he is definitely taking Richardson and you can’t trade with him, I would run to do the 1.2 for 1.5 and 1.6.

      I view RG3 and Luck as the only other players to consider at 1.02 and 1.03. Even if Martin or Miller or Wilson end up in a great place, I take talent over situation. I don’t think Blackmon is worth the 1.02 if you can get the 1.05 and 1.06 instead.

      So my advice is to trade down, get the 1.05, 1.06 to add to your 1.07 and 1.10. My guess is that the draft will go:
      Richardson
      Luck/RG3
      Luck/RG3 or best RB
      Best RB (or RG3)

      So at 1.05-1.07, you have your choice of Blackmon, Floyd, and the #3 and #4 RB. That definitely strengthens you team a lot. I would take BPA, so if you value Blackmon and Floyd over an RB, take them first. RB are harder to get and it might be tempting to stock up, but you want playmakers of any kind.

      Don’t trade down to 1.11, the talent level drops a lot. Tamme could be good in Denver, but there are no guarantees. You can get a TE for cheaper at a later date.

      • Robert Schramm says:

        Makes a lot of sense. Thanks,

        Question. if the guy with 1.5 and 1.6 won’t sell for 1.2 and 4.2 would it be worth it to offer him 1.2 and 3.2?

  15. John says:

    Need help with a deal, Would you trade 1.01, 1.07 and J Jones for foster, D thomas and 2.03.

    • Joe Kool says:

      I would not EVER.

      The best player in that deal might be Foster..but Julio Jones is a 1.01 value, and the 1.01 and a 1.07? And you have 2.03 and Daniel Freaking Thomas to show for it along with Foster?
      I dont think its even close.

      Ill take TRich, Julio, 1.07 all day thank you.

      • John says:

        Sorry It is dem Thomas WR DEN. I think he has the potential to be top 5 with manning going forward. So foster over T rich, Jones over thomas but has talent. I move down 7 picks in draft.

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