2012 Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings with Extended Commentary

Jeff Haverlack

Pre-draft rookie rankings and profiles have a very short shelf-life.  As such, you won’t find an ultra-deep listing here prior to the draft.  Our focus is on fantasy production and prior to the draft, most players have an inflated value compared to their eventual post-draft value.  Our post draft rankings will be live just as quickly as we can assess the rookies’ drafted situation(s).  Don’t worry, we know your rookie drafts will be starting soon and we’ll have your preliminary rankings posted without delay following the NFL draft.

Until that time, this represents the players that we are most interested in heading into the draft.


QUARTERBACKS

It’s not often that a rookie draft presents such a great pair of quarterbacks as 2012 does.  Both Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are easy selections for the draft’s first two picks, and while Indianapolis owns the first pick in the draft by way of finishing with the worst record in the NFL, the Washington Redskins traded away three first round picks and more for the rights to Griffin.  It’s a hefty price to pay, but by all measuring sticks, RGIII looks to be a capable face-of-the-franchise for Mike Shanahan for many years to come.  Whether you agree with the trade or not, you have to admire owner Daniel Snyder’s commitment to the position and RGIII.

Beyond the dynamic duo, the 2012 class of quarterbacks appears capable, but not overly exciting.  Texas A&M’s Ryan Tannehill will likely hear his name called in the top ten picks and represents the standard rookie prospect at the position.  Beyond Tannehill, Brandon Weeden and Kirk Cousins offer potential, but with substantial risk.

1.  Andrew Luck

Stanford
6040/234/4.67

luckAndrew Luck is in a league of his own at the position.  Said to be the best prospect since 1983 (John Elway), Luck has the size, arm, and the best possible foundation for an immediate impact in the NFL.  We’re not ready to anoint him the next Elway at this juncture, but there’s no question that he’s in a class by himself.

It’s not often that a quarterback of Luck’s tangibles and intangibles is seen.  His pocket awareness, weight transfer and footwork are of NFL quality already.  He sees the field well and has the intelligence, mechanics, footwork, mobility, intelligence and pro-style offensive experience to get the ball where it needs to be quickly and accurately.  Toss in gritty toughness, a confident leadership ability and the mobility to move to where he best needs to be to take advantage of any situation and you have a day one starter in the NFL.

He’s as close to a sure thing as you can get coming from college and we can’t even imagine how good he could be even early in his career.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 288 404 3517 71.3 8.71 37 10
2010 263 372 3338 70.7 8.97 32 8
2009 162 288 2575 56.3 8.94 13 4

2.  Robert Griffin III

Baylor
6023/220/4.41

Robert Griffin III (RGIII) is an exciting package in every phase of his game.  He possesses a strong arm and excellent accuracy – something that normally isn’t expected from quarterbacks containing a skill set of mobility and speed.  He’s a quarterback first and as accomplished a passer within the pocket as he is on the move.  His work ethic, character and leadership make for a player who exudes confidence in everything he does and it’s evident in every play and every interview, after a big win or a frustrating loss.

griffin1Outside the pocket, he’s a dual-threat and will make opposing defenses pay for dropping into coverage or crowding the line.  His throws are effortless and his motion doesn’t change whether he’s standing in the pocket or moving to his right.  His wrist-snap at release produces a beautiful ball and he’ll throw an eight yard out as accurately as he will a fifty yard fly.  If Griffin can maintain his impressive level of accuracy in the NFL, he’ll be an elite fantasy talent in his first year.

As previously mentioned, the Redskins traded a king’s fortune for the rights to RGIII and he’ll likely be starting from day one.  Fantasy owners with the first pick in their rookie drafts looking for a shot at one of this year’s top quarterbacks will have a decision to make.  It won’t surprise us if RGIII is the better fantasy producer early in his career.

 

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 291 402 4293 72.4 10.68 37 6
2010 304 454 3501 67.0 7.71 22 8
2009 45 69 481 65.2 6.97 4 0
2008 160 267 2091 59.9 7.83 15 3

3.  Ryan Tannehill

Texas A&M
6037/221/4.62

Want to know why Andrew Luck is so special?  Watch any amount of tape and the difference is clear.  That’s not to say that Tannehill isn’t a good prospect at the position, but he represents a typical emerging rookie quarterback

Tannehill possesses a “good enough” arm for the NFL, but it can be improved with better footwork.  Tannehill’s pocket presence is a bit underwhelming at this stage of his development and his footwork is choppy, erratic and needs a fair amount of work.  When watching tape on Tannehill, you find too many cases where he is throwing off of his back foot, without pressure, and with poor weight transfer that causes his passes to often float.  He’s much more accurate in shorter passing routes, but should have the arm strength to hit deeper routes more consistently with further development.  He looks comfortable flowing to his right and fluid and natural throwing on the run.

Tannehill has good leadership abilities and solid character traits, but would be best suited to develop for a year or two in a good NFL situation with a strong mentor.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 327 531 3744 61.6 7.05 29 15
2010 152 234 1638 65.0 7.00 13 6
2009 4 8 60 50.0 7.50 0 0
2008 1 1 8 100.0 8.00 0 0

 

 

 

 

4.  Brandon Weeden

Oklahoma State
6036/221/4.90

Brandon Weeden is exactly what you would expect when a baseball player turns to football.  At 28 years old, Weeden is a very raw, but intriguing prospect at the next level.  As would be expected, he’s is a mature quarterback and a capable, but more subdued leader in the huddle.  His age represents potential maturity in the NFL. However, when combined with the break-in time normally attached to rookie quarterbacks, Weeden’s age equates to five years of lost total production, which drops his initial dynasty value.weeden

When watching tape of Weeden, the first thing I noticed is how the ball jumps out of his hand.  He’s got a good wrist snap and follow through that immediately shows up in the velocity and trajectory of most throws.  Beyond those two points, Weeden’s footwork is a bit choppy and overly mechanical.  His football IQ is questionable and playing with Justin Blackmon will certainly inflate any quarterback’s numbers.

Whether or not Weeden can migrate to more natural reads and progressions at the next level where the speed is notably faster remains to be seen, but he’ll likely come off the board in round two.

Weeden marks the start of the third tier of quarterbacks in this year’s draft.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 408 564 4727 72.3 8.38 37 13
2010 342 511 4277 66.9 8.37 34 13
2009 15 24 248 62.5 10.33 4 1
2008 1 3 8 33.3 2.67 0 0

5.  Kirk Cousins

Michigan State
6025/214/4.93

Cousins is a capable prospect that doesn’t leap off the page in any one category.  He posseses a decent arm, mobility and pocket presence.  Football IQ for the next level is a concern as he tends to script his throws before the play has unfolded, instead of reading the field and following his progressions.  He tends to be late on reads and needs to develop in the areas of awareness and assessment.  There are no questioning his leadership skills or his confidence in leading a team, however.

The 2012 NFL Combine saw Cousins’ rising in value due to this year’s top quarterbacks foregoing passing drills as well as a disappointing performance from Arizona’s Nick Foles.  Cousins threw the ball wall, showed good velocity and, most of all, a willingness to compete.  In the days following the combine, Cousins’ stock has remained on the rise, but he’s been labeled by more than one expert as a prototypical backup, a label no would-be rookie wants to be assigned.

Cousins is a late-to-middle round selection who could develop if drafted into the right situation.  In all likelihood, he’ll see multiple rosters in your fantasy league until eventually ending up on the waiver wire permanently, ala fellow MSU alumni, Drew Stanton.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 267 419 3316 63.7 7.91 25 10
2010 226 338 2825 66.9 8.36 20 10
2009 198 328 2680 60.4 8.17 19 9
2008 32 43 310 74.4 7.21 2 1

6.  Ryan Lindley

San Diego St.
6036/229/4.90

Ryan Lindley is more intriguing of a prospect than I had originally believed and he’s rising on our board.  Our hope for Lindley is that he is drafted into a solid situation with an accomplished existing quarterback and system (i.e. New Orleans, San Diego, New York Giants) from which he can develop.

Lindley is raw, but has enough of a foundation to develop well at the next level.  He’s got an extremely live arm with a quick release and a good wrist-snap that gets lindleythe ball to his target on a rope.  When he’s comfortable in the pocket, he makes good throws and looks like a solid prospect.  When rushed or not confident, he looks just the opposite.

Accuracy, as shown in his statistical history below, is his greatest weakness.  This results from poor footwork (throwing off his back foot) and most notably, lack of “touch” on many passes.  Lindley seemingly has one velocity in his passes – a bullet.  Should he learn the subtleties of the position at the next level, he could surprise.  Much like Kirk Cousins above, Lindley has been the recipient of multiple upgrades and is rising on draft boards.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 237 447 3153 53.0 7.05 23 8
2010 243 421 3830 57.7 9.10 28 14
2009 239 437 3054 54.7 6.99 23 16
2008 242 427 2653 56.7 6.21 16 9

7.  Nick Foles

Arizona
6050/243/5.14

Heading into the combine, Arizona’s Nick Foles was gaining momentum and rising on draft boards.  Following a disappointing performance in most areas, he’s now slipping.  Foles possesses good size, decent arm strength (though that has been questioned of late) and has the ability to command a huddle.  Passing from a spread offense in most sets, Foles will need time to get comfortable with NFL sets and expected progressions.

He isn’t overly mobile, but can slide without loss of field vision and he does have the size to for shorter scrambles when the opportunity presents itself.  Foles needs better footwork as he tends to rely on his arm strength too often and gets sloppy with his weight transfer and follow through.  He is a bit of a flat-footed passer which will receive a lot of attention at the next level. During the combine, Foles didn’t throw well and allowed multiple passes to float to the sideline, not demonstrating the better arm that we saw on tape.

Character wise, Foles is considered a great leader, a team player and he has a great work ethic for the position.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD INT
2011 387 560 4334 69.1 7.74 28 14
2010 286 426 3191 67.1 7.49 20 10
2009 260 409 2486 63.6 6.08 19 9
2007 5 8 57 62.5 7.13 0 0

8.  Brock Osweiler 

Arizona State
6067/242/4.90

Osweiler possesses the arm strength, height and release that the NFL demands.  For his size, he’s got an extremely compact and live arm with enough mobility and pocket awareness to naturally slide and move as things break down.  He’s has more of a 3/4 style delivery than you like to see but word is that he is reworking it to more  of an over-the-top style.  Osweiler did not work out at the combine, instead choosing to showcase his skills at Arizona State’s pro day.  The word from there indicated he was satisfactory, but not stellar, missing badly on multiple deep balls.

Osweiler’s football IQ is questionable and he doesn’t show a lot of velocity, flexibility or touch.  When rushed, his mechanics and decision making quickly break down and lead to judgment issues.  Given time to develop with a good mentor in front of him, Osweiler has the physical package to eventually develop if he’s able to learn the finer points of the position.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA TD
2011 326 516 4036 63.2 7.82 26
2010 62 109 797 56.9 7.31 5
2009 24 55 249 43.6 4.53 2

9.  Russell Wilson

Wisconsin
5105/204/4.55

If you’re looking for competitive drive and leadership, Wilson is impossible to ignore.  It is for this reason that he’s appearing in our listing this year, given his lack of size.  Not many quarterbacks of his size make it in the NFL and his combine measurements were further disappointing as we were hoping he would measure in closer to 6’0”.

wilsonDespite his physical limitations, Wilson is a workhorse in the film room and on the field.  He’s a tremendous leader, a gifted athlete and has proven that he can complete passes behind a large offensive line.  Wisconsin was said to have the sixth largest offensive line in college AND the NFL.  There’s something about Wilson that just makes you believe he’s going to be a difference maker at the next level in some fashion.

Leadership and athleticism aren’t likely to turn him into a gifted NFL passer, but we’re willing to give him the chance to be the next great “small” quarterback.  Should he have measured in four inches taller, he likely would have been the third quarterback off the board in 2012.

Don’t simply discount this kid.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% TD INT
2011 225 309 3175 72.8 33 4
2010 308 527 3563 58.4 28 14
2009 224 378 3027 59.3 31 11
2008 150 275 1955 54.5 17 1

10.   Case Keenum

Houston
6005/208/4.82

We don’t want to take away anything from Keenum’s production at the college level, but it’s hard to project him as a difference maker at the next level.  While enormously productive at Houston, Keenum just doesn’t have the size or NFL skill set for increased expectations.

Keenum is a good leader, shows poise and has the ability to move in the pocket with ease, while keeping his vision down the field.  He’s a passer first and has a quick release with adequate arm strength.  Playing out of a true shotgun-style spread offense that Houston employs will not allow Keenum to hit the ground running in the NFL, adding just another hurdle beyond his size he’ll have to overcome.

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% TD INT
2011 428 603 5631 71.0 48 5
2010 42 64 636 65.6 5 5
2009 492 700 5671 70.3 44 15
2008 397 589 5020 67.4 44 11
2007 187 273 2259 68.5 14 10

 

RUNNING BACKS

This year is an interesting class for the running back position.  Trent Richardson headlines this year’s group and is a clear and worthy selection at the top of the position.  It’s likely in fantasyland that he’ll be off the board with the first pick in drafts more often than either of the top quarterbacks, who tend to slide a bit come draft day due to the value placed on running backs.

Beyond Richardson, the talent level does drop, but those below have the size and skill set to make for an intriguing addition to any fantasy team.  It is our belief that these players shouldn’t begin coming off the board until 1.05, after the big four of Luck, RGIII, Richardson and Justin Blackmon.  Looking at the next three backs after Richardson, however, it would not surprise us if one of them goes on to be the best performer of this year’s group.

1.  Trent Richardson

Alabama
5092/228/4.48

Alabama’s road grader of a running back, Trent Richardson is an easy first-off-the-board selection at the position.  Many experts believe that Richardson is perhaps the best back coming out of college since Adrian Peterson or Darren McFadden.  While we do agree that Richardson is a great back, we believe he is a notch below McFadden and well below Peterson in ability and vision.trich

There are many attributes we love about Richardson’s style and very few we don’t.  Primarily, he grades very highly as a downhill back capable of churning out yards.  He keeps his pads square to the line, sees holes quickly and runs downhill through them without hesitation.  He has good lateral mobility and enough patience to allow blocks to be engaged when the lane isn’t currently open.  He doesn’t possess a clear jump-step, but employes a very effective slide-step that he uses along with tremendous natural vision to feel his runs.  At the second level with momentum, Richardson’s strength and powerful leg drive make him nearly impossible to bring down alone.

Perhaps his greatest assets, Richardson runs with an exceptional pad level and a low center of gravity that, when combined, provide phenomenal balance through contact.  He will be a nightmare for opposing defenses in the NFL late in games as fatigue sets in.

On the negative side, we don’t see the “it” dynamic that we saw from Peterson or McFadden.  This doesn’t suggest he will be a bust in the NFL by any stretch, but we question whether Richardson has the ability to take over a game.  Lateral speed to get to the corner is suspect and he’s best served as a one-cut-and-go runner.  His style of running suggests a great need for an established and effective offensive line.  This isn’t uncommon for any highly drafted back, but may figure more prominently in Richardson’s early success.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 283 1679 5.9 21 29 338 11.7 3
2010 112 700 6.3 6 23 266 11.6 4
2009 145 751 5.2 8 16 126 7.9 0

2.  Lamar Miller

Miami (FL)
5106/212/4.40

The choice for second-off-the-board at the position will be debated until draft day and perhaps even until your own fantasy draft.  For our pick, Miller gets the edge on Virginia Tech’s David Wilson due to prototypical size, vision and the strength to hit the hole quickly.  Miller is a decisive runner who doesn’t have the same strength or patience as Alabama’s Trent Richardson, but once in the secondary, has the speed and strength to find the end zone.  At this year’s combine, Miller was impressive and was turned in the fastest forty of the high profile backs.

millerMiller has a dynamic that is hard to miss when he runs with confidence.  He tends to run high through the line of scrimmage, but runs over his hips with good balance to take on first contact.  Not often used in the passing game, his hands are questionable, but the few receptions caught on tape show enough fundamental skill to believe that this won’t be an issue at the next level.  He is able to snatch the ball fluidly while on the move and gets his shoulders turned up-field quickly – that shouldn’t be undervalued.

Miller needs work in blocking technique, with better use of leverage at the point of contact, but his size will be an asset in this area.  We would have liked to have seen one more year of steady play, but a second nice season at Miami is enough to likely result in a bottom-third selection in the first round of your draft.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 227 1272 5.6 9 17 85 5.0 1
2010 108 646 6.0 6 11 96 8.7 0

3.  David Wilson

Virginia Tech
5095/206/4.49

Many prefer Wilson over Lamar Miller and when viewing tape, it’s easy to see why.  But at the same time, it’s also easy to see why we prefer Miller.

Wilson has a speed dynamic that is impossible to miss, especially when combining it with a natural running instinct and quickness through the hole.  Wilson also has, in our estimation, the best hips in this year’s class, a trait that ranks very highly on our attribute listing.  Wilson possesses the level of hip swivel or float that we strongly prefer to see in NFL running backs toward projecting a high level of fantasy production.

Wilson gets through holes quickly and runs with strength greater than his size would suggest.  Like Miller, he hasn’t been utilized in the passing game enough to be accomplished in that phase, but shows capable enough hands to suggest a suitable level of performance.  At the next level, Wilson will have to address his fumbles.  His coaching staff insists he doesn’t have a fumbling problem, but his seven fumbles in 2011 suggest otherwise.  He runs with a high level of aggression and allows his elbow to fly away from his torso far too often, dangerously exposing the ball to would-be tacklers.  However, he’s got the drive and work ethic to correct this.  His pass blocking leaves much to be desired and will likely keep him off the field somewhat during his rookie season.

Wilson ran an official 4.49 at the combine, which was a tad disappointing.  This could limit his effectiveness as he’ll likely need to add weight at the NFL level.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 290 1709 5.9 9 22 129 5.9 1
2010 113 619 5.5 5 15 234 15.6 4
2009 59 334 5.7 4 0 0 0.0 0

4.  Doug Martin

Boise State
5092/223/4.55

martinIn recent years, many undersized backs have been carving out niche roles, and sometimes more, in the NFL.  We were pleasantly surprised with Martin’s NFL Combine measurables, especially in the area of height.

Martin brings a thick lower body, strong leg drive and nice, not elite, lateral agility.  He runs with a good body lean and is quick to take the ball downhill, rarely chopping his feet or showing indecisiveness.  He doesn’t have the quickest first step, but shows enough ability to create some degree of misdirection or instinct as to where the hole will appear.  Most believe that Martin has better than average speed, but we find it to be somewhat questionable in traffic.  His forty time of 4.55 was disappointing, but he plays faster on tape.

 

The level of competition was questionable at Boise State but with the success of smaller backs like Baltimore’s Ray Rice, Doug Martin should have a significant role at the next level.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 263 1299 4.9 16 28 255 9.1 2
2010 201 1260 6.3 12 28 338 12.1 2
2009 129 765 5.9 15 8 68 8.5 0
2008 24 107 4.5 0 3 54 18.0 0

5.  Chris Polk

Washington
5104/215/4.57

There isn’t a lot of mystery on the topic of Chris Polk.  His value was diminishing rapidly prior to the NFL Combine due to rumors about his weight and lack of elite ability.  He isn’t flashy or overly dynamic and his statistics don’t leap off the page, but we believe Polk is going to be a better NFL running back than he was in college.  Much like Matt Forte’, Polk has a strong set of NFL skills and the body to put them to work every Sunday.

Polk has two primary attributes that are absolute must-haves at the NFL level:  1) Vision  2) Quick Feet.  He has elite vision and feel that cannot be trained.  A back either has that level of vision or doesn’t.  Secondly, in traffic, Polk’s quick and nimble feet allow for a high degree of inside maneuverability that is quite rare.  Polk is perhaps best as an inside rider, doing damage between the tackles.  He has impressive leg drive and enough strength to move the pile and shed single tacklers, all while maintaining sufficient balance to churn out extra yardage.

Polk is an adept pass catcher and is fluid when receiving the ball in motion.  He is a willing blocker and has the size to utilize leverage at the point of attack as he gains experience.  As a final positive note, Polk has ideal ball position when running, keeping the ball high and tight in most all situations along with natural ability to shift the ball away from would-be tacklers at appropriate times.  His running instincts are elite.

All that being said, Polk does tend to run overly high too often and likely doesn’t have the speed or change-of-direction abilities to get away with it in the NFL.  He doesn’t have elite long speed and seemingly has a shorter stride.  His NFL Combine forty was disappointing.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 293 1488 5.1 12 31 332 10.7 4
2010 260 1415 5.4 9 22 180 8.2 0
2009 226 1113 4.9 5 25 171 6.8 0
2008 20 33 1.7 0 1 0 0.0 0

6.  Bernard Pierce

Temple
6002/218/4.49

Pierce shows a nice lateral step and agility and is a bit of a lumbering long-striding runner.  He runs a bit upright, but shows the ability to dip his shoulders when anticipating contact.  Not a natural pass catcher in the passing game, he likely won’t be expected to play a large role in this area at the next level.pierce1

Pierce doesn’t stand out in any one area but is capable enough to be a viable backup at the next level while he waits for a greater opportunity to present itself.  His 4.49 forty at his listed height and weight is noteworthy and will increase his draft stock.

The NFL is littered with backs with sufficient measurables who never see the field.  While it’s likely that Pierce will fall into this group, don’t lose track of him should he be drafted into a good situation.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 273 1481 5.4 27 3 52 17.3 0
2010 154 728 4.7 10 8 87 10.9 1
2009 236 1361 5.8 16 8 39 4.9 0

7.  Robert Turbin

Utah State
5100/222/4.50

We’ve had our eye on Turbin prior to the combine and he didn’t disappoint.  Running a 4.50 at his listed weight is notable.  Along with his upper body strength and his quick feet, Turbin could be a sleeper come draft day.  He’s got the size and skill combination that will likely eventually earn him a chance to start at some point during his NFL career.  He’s an accomplished runner and as a receiver out of the backfield.

Fantasy coaches will need to be patient and he’s the type of player whocan be added in the late-second or early-third round of fantasy drafts without a lot of expectation for early production.  Watch his drafted situation closely.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 249 1517 6.1 19 17 171 10.1 4
2009 207 1296 6.3 13 30 418 13.9 5
2008 106 485 4.6 8 20 256 12.8 2
2007 3 17 5.7 0 0 0 0.0 0

8.  LaMichael James

Oregon
5080/194/4.45

Oregon’s LaMichael James is nothing short of electric with the ball in his hands.  He’s 2012’s version of an ultra-productive, high profile, college runner who is likely to have a far more successful college career than NFL career. However, it’s anyone’s guess what his future holds.

James’ bulk leaves much to be desired and his college durability suggests further issues in the NFL.  After spending more time in the weight room prior to the NFL Combine, James added nearly ten pounds of weight.  In either case, James likely won’t be able to add the bulk necessary to be much more than a third down or situational back in the NFL.

All that being said, James has a strong football heart and elite competitiveness.  He’s an energetic runner who often outruns his blocking and needs to show a greater level of patience.  His cuts are razor sharp and he can get up field in a hurry when there’s a crease.  Once in the open field, he is electric and elusive.  He’s relatively adept in the passing game and with enough capability to raise his draftable grade.

He’ll likely not be able to overcome a thin base which suggests not only greater injury potential, but also less capability in pass protect schemes.  He’ll likely be a role player with upside at the next level.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 247 1805 7.3 18 17 210 12.4 1
2010 294 1731 5.9 21 17 208 12.2 3
2009 230 1546 6.7 14 17 168 9.9 0

9.  Isaiah Pead

Cincinnati
5101/197/4.47

A bit undersized, Pead is smooth and instinctive showing a clever style and natural vision as a runner.  In the passing game, Pead is a dangerous weapon and he catches the ball fluidly, reaching top speed quickly.

Note that Pead’s productivity did decrease as his carries increased which could be a concern at the next level, displaying that he may tend to wear down with an increased workload.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 237 1259 5.3 12 39 319 8.2 3
2010 157 1029 6.6 6 26 190 7.3 1
2009 121 806 6.7 9 20 201 10.1 2
2008 30 194 6.5 0 2 11 5.5 0

10.  Cyrus Gray

Texas A&M
510/200/4.47

Gray is a situational back with some level of upside in an offense that can get him into space.  Like Isaiah Pead above, he excels in the passing game and shows natural hands.  He’s got better than average speed and a great motor.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 198 1045 5.3 12 31 239 7.7 3
2010 200 1133 5.7 12 34 251 7.4 1
2009 159 757 4.8 5 28 226 8.1 2
2008 75 363 4.8 1 10 60 6.0 0

11.   Ronnie Hillman

San Diego State
5086/200/4.45

Hillman isn’t a big back, possessing small hands and an upper-body that needs mass, but he’s an electric ball handler with a speed/agility dynamic that cannot be ignored.  He doesn’t have the power or leg drive needed to garner early down work in the NFL, but could be a versatile player.  Added weight and bulk will pay dividends and he does have upside.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 311 1711 5.5 19 24 270 11.3 1
2010 262 1532 5.8 17 9 68 7.6 1

12.  Tauren Poole

Tennessee
5100/205/4.54

Poole is a more gifted runner than given credit for.  He has natural and extremely adept vision to go along with a fluid style/motion.  Poole doesn’t leap off the page in any one area but he does run with a level of aggressiveness and hunger and isn’t afraid to to lower his pads to pick up the tough yards.  Behind the line of scrimmage he shows a better than average level of patience while he lets his blocking and lanes develop.   He’s shifty with a good level of lateral agility and balance, running behind his pads.

Poole isn’t a burner and he’s not going to see a lot of third down duty unless he develops quickly at the next level.  He’s a willing blocker but not overly adept.  On the right team, Poole will make for a nice sleeper candidate as he’s relatively unknown and likely not on the radar of your fellow fantasy coaches.

SEASON ATT YDS AVG TD REC YDS AVG TD
2011 187 693 3.7 5 21 164 7.8 0
2010 204 1034 5.1 11 22 171 7.8 1
2009 10 85 8.5 85 1 9 9.0 0
2008 22 86 3.9 3.9 1 -1 -1.0 0

 

WIDE RECEIVERS

Much like the running back position in 2012, the wide receiver group is headlined by a player who is certain to be off the board in the top five picks in all but the rarest of circumstances – Justin Blackmon.  Beyond Blackmon, the tiers widen considerably and the risk of the position increases as well.  While the position is relatively deep overall, with good size and ability, projecting the receivers twho will eventually produce well in fantasy with this group is next to impossible, at least with any level of confidence.

For fantasy coaches needing help at receiver, this is a good year to own additional late first round selections or, for that matter, additional picks in the second round.  There’s enough mystery and upside in this year’s group to suggest a number of players will have fantasy relevance, even if we can’t accurately predict where they may be at this juncture.

1.  Justin Blackmon

Oklahoma State
6007/207/DNP

Blackmon represents an easy choice as the first wide receiver off the board for those needing help at the position.  While likely not to have the long speed to consistently get deep, Blackmon has great hands, excellent situational awareness and the dangerous after-the-catch ability, especially on more horizontal routes.  His Combine measurable were somewhat disappointing and won’t raise his draft stock.blackmon

Amassing 38 touchdowns as Oklahoma State’s primary receiving weapon following the departure of Dez Bryant, Blackmon not only displayed he was capable in taking over where Bryant left off, but also showed he could be more a more polished and consistent threat.  He’s more gifted as a possession style receiver, but has the gritty toughness and dynamic that is going to make an immediate impact in the NFL.

Fantasy coaches seriously needing receiver help and playing in PPR systems should feel comfortable selecting him first overall.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 121 1522 12.6 18
2010 111 1782 16.1 20
2009 20 260 13.0 2

2.  Michael Floyd

Notre Dame
6025/220/4.47

Notre Dame’s Michael Floyd is an intriguing prospect on many levels.  With a prototypical  NFL body, hands and skill-set, Floyd has the foundation needed to be a go-to receiver early in his NFL career.  At the NFL Combine, Floyd caught everything thrown his way, showed soft hands, an NFL body and speed to match.

floydAlong with Floyd’s obvious positive tangibles comes a number of question marks that serve to rank him well below Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon in our rankings.  We don’t like receivers who come to the NFL with baggage and that is exactly what Floyd brings, with two black marks on his record for alcohol violations.  It has been suggested that Floyd has championed these issues and that they are now in his past, but questions will remain until he proves that he can steer clear of repeat offenses after landing his first big NFL contract.

In games, Floyd shows he has the talent to play well on the outside.  He has a wide frame, big hands and the leaping ability to make plays.   At the college level, it seems that he too often takes these physical advantages for granted and is a bit unpolished in such areas as getting off jams, making quick breaks out of his routes and, perhaps, the work ethic needed to be great.

He’ll be best served on a team in the NFL with established leadership in the receiver position.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 100 1147 11.5 9
2010 79 1025 13.0 12
2009 44 795 18.1 9
2008 48 719 15.0 7

3.  Stephen Hill

Georgia Tech
6040/215/4.36

Say hello to the 2012 NFL Combine’s workout warrior, Stephen Hill.

Size, speed, combine performance and seemingly everything else you want on paper from a potential NFL star receiver … except college production.  With a total of 49 total receptions in three years within Tech’s gimmicky offense, Hill just never materialized as a consistent threat.hill

Following Hill’s combine performance, scouts across the NFL have been scrambling to get tape in order to assess his true potential.  Said by some to be slightly better than Denver’s Demaryius Thomas, also a former Georgia Tech receiver, Hill is certain to hear his name called on day two of the NFL draft.  For fantasy owners, he’ll likely be a second round selection by a coach who is willing to close his eyes and make the second round selection on a player that defines what risk-reward is all about.  We could easily make the case for him being the next Marques Colston, or the next Ramses Barden.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 28 820 29.3 5
2010 15 291 19.4 3
2009 6 137 22.8 1

4.  Kendall Wright
Baylor
5102/196/4.61

In 2011, Wright exploded on the scene for the Baylor Bears and finally took the top off his game.  Almost matching his touchdown numbers from his three previous years, Wright proved that he can be a dynamic speed talent.

With a better NFL Combine performance, Wright had the chance to overtake Floyd in our rankings.  As it stands, Wright’s speed is what allows him to flash the ability that suggests a productive NFL career.  His disappointing forty time could weigh heavily on his draft stock.  On film, he gets to his top speed quickly and shows a level of explosion that is needed at the next level.  However, he doesn’t show the ability to bring in receptions outside of his frame (catch radius) and shows inconsistent hands to balls not on the mark.  His route running and ability to get off the jam at the line of scrimmage are suspect, but should develop at the next level.

Wright is a natural athlete with significant upside and his areas of concern are primarily those that can be developed more fully at the next level.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 108 1663 15.4 14
2010 78 952 12.2 7
2009 66 740 11.2 4
2008 50 649 13.0 5

5.  Rueben Randle

LSU
6027/210/4.55

Randle is a bit off the grid as far as receiving a lot of pre-draft attention, something we believe is a mistake.  While he won’t turn heads with his speed or big play dynamic, Randle has the tangible receiver qualities to make a splash in the NFL.

Randle has nice over-the-shoulder ability and better than average after-catch agility before getting into his stride.  While not overly gifted with long speed, Randle does a nice job of shielding with his body to maximize reception potential.  We’d like to see him snatch the ball a bit more consistently as he’s overly willing to allow passes to get to his body.   Additionally, Randle doesn’t show tremendous leaping ability that would be suggested from his size.

Comparing favorably with Kansas City’s Dwayne Bowe, Randle had a relatively impressive showing during the NFL Combine and has raised his draft stock as a result.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 53 917 17.3 8
2010 33 544 16.5 3
2009 11 173 15.7 2

 

 

 


6.  Mohamed Sanu

Rutgers
6014/211/4.67

Not a flashy athlete, but a capable one, Sanu is a bit of a one-year wonder and a prototypical possession receiver.  He has a good frame, fair-to-good ball skills and enough athleticism that he should be able to contribute in most phases of a passing attack.  That all said, Sanu isn’t overly dynamic in any one area and will need to use his football intelligence to find his place in the NFL.  His long speed has come into question as a result of a very poor forty time at the NFL Combine.

His primary area of focus for NFL success must come in the areas of route running and physicality to shed defenders at the top of his routes and off the line of scrimmage.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 115 1206 10.5 7
2010 44 418 9.5 2
2009 51 639 12.5 3

 


 


7.  Alshon Jeffery

South Carolina
6027/216/DNP

Jeffery is a hard receiver to grade out due to an underwhelming 2011, at least related to his prototypical size and ability that should have provided more in a Steve Spurrier-led offense.  Further hurting his draft stock was his decision to remove himself from all drills at the NFL Combine.

He does have great size, good leaping ability and elite ability to bring in receptions from outside of his frame.  He has consistent and relatively large hands that, when combined with his size and athleticism, make him extremely tough to defend on well thrown balls.  He reminds us a lot of A.J. Green in his ball skill ability, but seemingly lacks the competitive nature to be great.

Beyond that, Jeffery does seem to struggle in running fluidity, be it off the line of scrimmage or against press coverage.  Not overly fast or dynamic, he seems to fight his frame in areas that require route physicality.  He likely won’t outrun many at the next level, but he has the size and reception dynamic that make him a very intriguing prospect.  Jeffery’s stock continues to fall and will likely continue to do so until the draft.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 49 762 15.6 8
2010 88 1517 17.2 9
2009 46 763 16.6 6

 

 

 


8.  Brian Quick

Appalachian State
6040/220/4.55

Quick’s ultimate level of NFL production will remain a mystery for some time to come.  He possesses a rare blend of physical size and agility, but simply doesn’t have the college production to discern much else.

A bit like Georgia Tech’s Stephen Hill, Quick appears to be a great athlete with good size and quickness, but NFL and fantasy coaches will need to draft physical attributes more than displayed ability.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2008 23 496 21.6 7

9.  Nick Toon

Wisconsin
6017/215/4.54

A good “hands catcher” and better than average route runner, Toon doesn’t leap off the page in any one area, but shows enough of a skill set to warrant consideration late in the second round of fantasy drafts.  Toon’s speed is questionable, but his toughness and physicality remain strong assets.

Owners will need to be very patient while waiting for Toon to develop.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 64 926 14.5 10
2010 36 459 12.8 3
2009 54 805 14.9 4
2008 17 257 15.1 1

10.  Jeff Fuller

Texas A&M
6034/223/DNP

Fuller has been slipping on our list of late.  Possessing good size and adequate tangible receiver qualities, he represents a solid prospect, but not one who leaps off the page in any regard.  His big frame limits some of his athleticism, but also provides potential upside at the next level.

He’s a bit choppy in route running with his footwork and a bit mechanical on tape as well.  One notable strength is in the area of coverage intelligence and awareness within his routes – this will serve him well in the NFL.

He’s a big body with good level of competitiveness and a willingness to get dirty.  His workmanlike attitude will keep him on our list.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 70 828 11.8 6
2010 72 1066 14.8 12
2009 41 568 13.9 7
2008 50 630 12.6 9


 

 

 

11.  Tommy Streeter

Miami
6047/219/4.40

Another relatively unknown and risky wide receiver selection containing off-the-chart athleticism, Miami’s Tommy Streeter garnered a lot of attention at the NFL Combine.streeter

He started only a single year for the Hurricanes, but had surprisingly good production in the midst of a sub-standard passing attack.  He possesses great speed, route fluidity and uses his body well, but is very rough in all phases of his route running and consistency.  Football IQ is a significant question mark, but Streeter has good upside in the right NFL system.

 

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 46 811 17.6 8
2010 1 42 42.0 1
2009 5 114 22.8


 



12.  Ryan Broyles

Oklahoma
5105/192/DNP

If not for his disappointing knee injury that ended his college career, Broyles would be MUCH high in our rankings.  He’s an accomplished route runner with an NFL skill set to work from the slot consistently and effectively.  He’s a fluid athlete with great hands and a reformed work ethic and leadership style.   He plays tougher than his size would suggest and has a big heart.

Broyles has questionable speed, which could limit his upside in non-PPR fantasy formats, but if he’s able to run well again, he’ll increase his stock in a big way.  He’ll slip on draft day because of his injury and presents a great risk-reward play for coaches in the late second round.  He’s likely a third round fantasy selection.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 83 1157 13.9 10
2010 131 1622 12.4 14
2009 89 1120 12.6 15
2008 46 687 14.9 6

 

 

 

 

13.  Marvin Jones

California
6030/202/4.46

Marvin Jones helped himself with a fast forty time.  Not overly productive at Cal, Jones fit the mold as a consistent possession-style receiver with decreasing touchdown production year over year.  Jones has big hands and does a great job of using his body to shield while attacking the ball.  He shows a decent level of fluidity and route intelligence, but isn’t an overly hard worker in and out of his breaks.  While Jones didn’t display game breaking ability, his speed dynamic and agility should be able to deliver better results at the next level.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 62 846 13.6 3
2010 50 765 15.3 4
2009 43 651 15.1 6
2008 1 8 8.0 0

14.  Juron Criner

Arizona
6020/199/4.68

Criner is a tough receiver to grade out due to his inconsistent play and production.  He’s a physical specimen who uses his body very well to shield defenders and come down with tough catches, often away from his frame.  He plays faster than his 4.68 forty would indicate and is surprisingly agile for a receiver of his size.

He had a relatively productive role as Arizona’s foremost receiving threat in 2010 and 2011 and he has all the measurables to be a consistent red zone threat in the NFL.  If he’s able to find a level of consistency and work ethic at the next level, Criner’s upside could be sizable.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 75 956 12.7 11
2010 82 1233 15.0 11
2009 45 582 12.9 9
2008 7 88 12.6 1

15.  Dwight Jones

North Carolina
6032/230/4.55

The underrated Jones followed up a solid 2010 campaign with an even better 2011 – exactly what you want to see in a young receiver.  Jones is more dynamic than many of the receivers above him on our list and only time will determine his NFL potential.  He grades highly in speed, agility and ability to separate, while needing further work on consistency, especially in the area of dropped passes.

jonesJones is tough not to like as a late second round fantasy sleeper at the position as he possesses the size and ability to become a true WR1 in a pass-heavy offense.  If he can stay healthy, improve his route running and develop more consistency in the area of hands-catching, he’s got a real shot at being a difference maker at the next level.

Working against him now is his NFL Combine performance, which was a complete and total disaster.  Drawing the repeated ire of his positional drills coaches, Jones was said to be lazy, inattentive and generally, unfocused.

Not a great start to his professional career.

 

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 85 1196 14.1 12
2010 62 946 15.3 4
2009 5 21 4.2 0
2008 0 0 0.0 0


16.  Devon Wylie

Fresno State
5092/187/4.39

When watching the combine, it was Wylie who kept catching our eye.  Whether through pure effort, sharp cuts or displaying great speed and burst, Wylie literally willed himself onto our rankings.  He’s destined to be a slot receiver in the NFL, but he appears to have the speed and agility to perform a great Wes Welker impression.  It will take just the right system to make use of his talents but he could find a niche playing a similar role to Welker or as a faster Danny Amendola (STL).

The biggest issue we have with Wylie isn’t his combination of speed and agility, but the fact that it wasn’t on display at Fresno State more often, having only accumulated eight total touchdowns in five years.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 56 716 12.8 1
2010 2 39 19.5 1
2009 17 259 15.2 4
2008 22 269 12.2 2
2007 1 44 44 0

TIGHT ENDS

The 2012 class of tight ends leaves a lot to be desired in our opinion.  Early on, Clemson’s Dwayne Allen appeared to be the class of the position, but without a great finish to his 2011 season and an unimpressive combine and pro-day, he’s now fallen below the fast rising Coby Fleener out of Stanford.  Tight ends in general are a difficult position to judge until they are established into a NFL offensive system that utilizes them and, thus, more ranking and assessment occurs following the draft than before.

The position will likely only produce a single first round selection in Fleener, but it wouldn’t be shocking if to see him fall to the second, either.  With the great success New England has been having with the position, it’s likely that at least one team will tab Fleener with a pick late in the first in hopes of creating that same tight end dynamic as has Bill Belichick.  Looking beyond him, however, doesn’t elicit much intrigue.

1.  Coby Fleener

Stanford
6060/247/DNP

Big, physical and with a good “get-off,” Fleener represents the class of tight ends in 2012.  Originally our TE2 in this year’s class after Clemson’s Dwayne fleener2Allen, further tape review shows that Fleener is as accomplished a receiving threat at the position as you will find in most cases.  Although he didn’t run at the Combine, he looks plenty quick enough on tape and has the ability to use his body well in coming down with reception both on-target and off.

There’s little doubt that being Andrew Luck’s tight end has helped Fleener’s draft stock, but that only serves to prove he can be productive with a quality signal caller.  Fleener needs a lot of work as an in-line blocker, but many pro systems are accentuating the receiving tight end position and Fleener is likely to be first off the board to one of them.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 34 667 19.6 10
2010 28 434 15.5 7
2009 21 266 12.7 1
2008 13 176 13.5 0

2.  Dwayne Allen

Clemson
6031/255/4.89

A slow forty time in addition to slightly disappointing measurables has dropped Clemson’s Dwayne Allen on our board.   He’s a very fluid athlete who plays more like a big-bodied wide receiver than he does a tight end.  His fluidity combined with his agility will make him difficult to defend by linebackers out of his short and intermediate routes.  His long speed took a hit with a disappointing forty time and he’s likely to now fall into the second day.

In fantasy, tight end production can be difficult to find on draft day and Allen doesn’t leap off the page in most areas.  In the right system with an established receiving corps. however, he has a chance to be productive early.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 50 598 12.0 8
2010 33 373 11.3 1
2009 10 108 10.8 3

3.  Orson Charles

Georgia
6024/251/DNP

Charles appears at the top of many draft lists but we feel he’s clearly the third best in this year’s class.  Charles does have decent run-after-catch ability and seems to be athletic at the position, but is also a bit stiff in his routes and mechanical.  He lacks suddenness that I like to see in receivers and is not overly smooth or fluid.  Unlike the other tight ends above him, Charles is very well built and strong at the point of attack, making for good in-line blocking performance which will raise his draft stock.  His receiving skills need further confidence and development but he’s not below-average in the area.  For a team that likes to keep a tight end close for blocking sets and use play action, Charles could be the top off the board.

In fantasy, we prefer true receiving threat tight ends and Charles remains our TE3, but with upside.

SEASON REC YDS AVG TD
2011 45 574 12.8 5
2010 26 422 16.2 2
2009 23 374 16.3 3

 

Make sure to check out all the initial premium content:

Pre-Draft Rookie Tiers
Extended interview with Matt Waldman
Free Agency Winners
Free Agency Losers
Third Year Wide Receiver Breakdown

jeff haverlack