2012 Blind Rookie Draft

Ryan McDowell

blackmon

With just a week until the NFL draft, dynasty owners are salivating in anticipation. Anticipation about which team will choose the future stud skill players, anticipation about where a favorite late round sleeper might land and especially anticipation about our own dynasty rookie drafts. Most rookie drafts occur in the days and weeks following the late April NFL draft when destinations are known and value can be fully assessed with all information to consider, but not all leagues are created equal or employ the same set of basic rules. I love leagues and commissioners who are willing to try something a little unusual.

I recently joined a league, the “Maniacs Dynasty League,” and was quickly informed that one thing that sets this league apart from many is their rookie draft, which is held each year on April 1st.

This article will serve two purposes: a very early look at how rookie drafts might unfold and a discussion about the merits of holding your league’s rookie draft before the NFL holds their version in late April.

I spoke with the commissioner of my league, as well as another commish who uses the early draft in his leagues as well. I asked both for the pros and cons of drafting so soon. Here is what I learned.

Pros:

*  Rewards owners who do their homework– as prevalent as dynasty league football has become, along with the large number of experts covering the draft, there is a plethora of information out there if owners are willing to do the research.

*  Amazing value to be had throughout draft– if you have done the work before the draft, it will likely pay off with snagging that 5th round sleeper that will leave your leaguemates asking “who?”

Makes the NFL draft more interesting– with multiple rookies already on your roster, you will have a rooting interest as you watch the NFL draft (better hope your guy is not sent packing to Cleveland).

Creates a year round active league– this seems to be the goal of almost all dynasty leagues and with this format, if you are not active and involved, you will be left behind and out of the playoffs each year.

Owners draft based on talent, rather than situation– this discussion comes up every year and while owners want to draft the best talent, it is hard to pass on the Daniel Thomas and Monatario Hardesty’s each year. This eliminates that temptation.

*  Can learn about prospects you may not be aware of– many of the players chosen in this draft were unknown to me. In many cases, seeing their name and how an owner valued them caused me to do more research and better prepare me for my other rookie draft this spring.

Cons:

Teams are unknown– the most obvious reason not to draft early for most owners. Although we try not to admit it, team and situation plays a huge role in determining a player’s value and without the factor, some players are difficult to evaluate.

Leaves a lot of time for free agent and trade transactions– drafting in the middle of the free agency period, or even before it begins adds an extra challenge and risk. As players change teams, it affects how teams will draft and the eventual landing spot for each rookie.

Can be risky as draft status and value changes– with so much time before the NFL draft, rookies are at risk to get injured, have legal trouble or other events that would affect their draft stock and fantasy value.

Can offset the system of poor teams earning higher picks– with all of the above risks related to drafting early, a poor or rebuilding team could not get the helpful player they thought they were getting, while a strong team adding a late round sleeper pans out and the balance of power is further widened.

Now, here is a look at the Maniacs draft. It is a 12 team league and the rookie draft is a full seven rounds, with only rookies eligible to be chosen. Scoring is PPR for all positions and quarterbacks earn 6 points for passing TDs. Starting requirements are 1 QB/2 RB/3 WR/1 TE/1 FLEX/PK/DEF. The comments made are mine, not those of the owners.

ROUND ONE

1.01 Trent Richardson, RB

The obvious pick in many leagues, even with the risk he could land in Cleveland or as a backup.

1.02 Justin Blackmon, WR

This team was in good shape at quarterback with Tony Romo, Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman

1.03 Michael Floyd, WR

The first surprise of this draft, despite having Michael Vick and Jay Cutler, he takes a chance on the WR.

1.04 Andrew Luck, QB

This is my team. Even with a strong starting QB (Matthew Stafford) I chose the best player available

1.05 Robert Griffin III, QB

Even as the reigning league champion, this team had a need at quarterback and traded up (sending Brandon Marshall) to snag this pick and RGIII.

1.06 Doug Martin, RB

This is where the risk really begins as the next tier of RB could land anywhere. If Martin becomes Ray Rice’s backup, this pick loses some value.

1.07 Lamar Miller, RB

See above.

1.08 David Wilson, RB

And again.

1.09 Kendall Wright, WR

The second tier WRs begin with similar risk as the RBs

1.10 Stephen Hill, WR

Hill’s stock has shot up since the combine.

1.11 Alshon Jeffrey, WR

Jeffrey’s value has really dropped, but some obviously still see him as a good prospect. These late 1st rounders will likely change as a 3rd tier RB lands in a favorable spot.

1.12 Mohamed Sanu, WR

I was surprised to see him chosen above some of the other players available. This owner traded up for Sanu.

Pick

Player

2.01 Coby Fleener, TE
2.02 Chris Polk, RB
2.03 Rueben Randle, WR
2.04 Dwayne Allen, TE
2.05 LaMichael James, RB
2.06 Isaiah Pead, RB
2.07 Bernard Pierce, RB
2.08 Juron Criner, WR
2.09 Robert Turbin, RB
2.10 Brian Quick, WR
2.11 Marvin Jones, WR
2.12 Ryan Tannehill, QB
Second round thoughts: Of the 5 RBs selected in round 2, at least 1 or 2 will land in a great spot and make them late 1st rounder rookie draft choices.I was surprised to see the TEs go this early and don’t expect that to continue is the majority of drafts.

Pick

Player

3.01 Devon Wylie, WR
3.02 Chris Givens, WR
3.03 Ryan Broyles, WR
3.04 Marvin McNutt, WR
3.05 Ladarius Green, TE
3.06 Orson Charles, TE
3.07 Tommy Streeter, WR
3.08 Nick Toon, WR
3.09 Joe Adams, WR
3.10 AJ Jenkins, WR
3.11 Greg Childs, WR
3.12 Rishard Matthews, WR
Third round thoughts: With 10 of the 12 players chosen being WRs, owners are definitely looking for the next Mike Wallace type player, a late round rookie pick that provided immediate return on investment. The safe picks are gone at this point and owners are taking their favorite sleeper or upside guy. Not having established ADP makes this very challenging.

Pick

Player

4.01 Cyrus Gray, RB
4.02 Brandon Weeden, QB
4.03 Dwight Jones, WR
4.04 Ronnie Hillman, RB
4.05 Michael Smith, RB
4.06 Vick Ballard, RB
4.07 Michael Egnew, TE
4.08 Jarius Wright, WR
4.09 BJ Cunningham, WR
4.10 TY Hilton, WR
4.11 DeVier Posey, WR
4.12 Chris Rainey, RB
Fourth round thoughts:A this point, if there is a player you like, you can not wait or assume he will last a round. There is very little value between a 4th rounder and 7th rounder in this format. That would of course change by May.

Pick

Player

5.01 Jeff Fuller, WR
5.02 Edwin Baker, RB
5.03 Kellen Moore, QB
5.04 Brock Osweiler, QB
5.05 Tauren Poole, RB
5.06 Tim Benford, WR
5.07 Chris Owusu, WR
5.08 Terrance Ganaway, RB
5.09 DeAngelo Peterson, TE
5.10 Keshawn Martin, WR
5.11 Gerrell Robinson, WR
5.12 Chase Ford, TE
6.01 Nick Foles, QB
6.02 Travis Benjamin, WR
6.03 Jordan White, WR
6.04 Danny Coale, WR
6.05 LaVon Brazill, WR
6.06 Bobby Rainey, RB
6.07 Kirk Cousins, QB
6.08 Jewel Hampton, RB
6.09 Adonis Thomas, RB
6.10 TJ Graham, WR
6.11 No pick
6.12 Eric Page, WR
7.01 Derek Moye, WR
7.02 Lance Lewis, WR
7.03 Nick Provo, TE
7.04 Bryce Brown, RB
7.05 Ryan Lindley, QB
7.06 Patrick Edwards, WR
7.07 Junior Hemmingway, WR
7.08 Kevin Koger, TE
7.09 Dale Moss, WR
7.10 BJ Coleman, QB
7.11 Marc Tyler, RB
7.12 Taylor Thompson, TE

Ryan McDowell can be found on Twitter at @RyanMc23

ryan mcdowell