IDP

IDP Dynasty Mock Draft Analysis

 

I know what you are saying, “Another dynasty mock?  You’re crazy. We haven’t even had the NFL Draft!”  Since many dynasty football players, including myself, have the “sickness” all year long, the guys here at DLF wanted to host it as a reference league for the pre-draft dynasty layout of the land.  This time before the NFL Draft is especially fun as outside of Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III, we have no idea where every rookie or the remaining free agents, for that matter, will end up.

The draft has fantastic representation from all the following: bleacherreport.com (Gary Davenport); draftsharks.com (Matt Schauf); footballguys.com (Sigmund Bloom and Jene Bramel); profootballfocus.com (Jeff Ratcliffe and Ross Miles); dynastyleaguefootball.com (Steve Wyremski); The IDP Guru (@OlingerIDPGuru);  myself and a host of others from twitter.

You can check out the entire draft here: http://www30.myfantasyleague.com/2012/home/74461#0 .

ROUND ONE

1.01 Ray Rice, RB BAL
1.02 LeSean McCoy, RB PHI
1.03 Arian Foster, RB HOU
1.04 Calvin Johnson, WR DET
1.05 Aaron Rodgers, QB GB
1.06 Larry Fitzgerald, WR ARI
1.07 Rob Gronkowski, TE NE
1.08 Jimmy Graham, TE NO
1.09 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB JAX
1.10 Matt Forte, RB CHI
1.11 Chris Johnson, RB TEN
1.12 Cam Newton, QB CAR

The top five remains the same with some combination of Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy, Calvin Johnson, and Aaron Rodgers.  The tight ends in the form of Rob Gronkowski (1.07) and Jimmy Graham (1.08) went a bit too high for my taste.  In leagues with premium tight end scoring (1.5 points per reception), I could understand the higher choice of those talented guys.

The best first round value was Cam Newton who I have seen go as high as 1.06.  Yes, he is a second year player, but he ranked fourth overall in total points in this format last year.  Even if he gets less goal line work, Cam should easily exceed his 1.12 draft spot.

ROUND TWO

2.01 Hakeem Nicks, WR NYG
2.02 Ryan Mathews, RB SD
2.03 Wes Welker, WE NE
2.04 Adrian Peterson, RB MIN
2.05 AJ Green, WR CIN
2.06 Julio Jones, WR ATL
2.07 Jamaal Charles, RB KC
2.08 Darren McFadden, RB OAK
2.09 Matthew Stafford, QB DET
2.10 Andre Johnson, WR HOU
2.11 Dez Bryant, WR DAL
2.12 Drew Brees, QB NO

There were some great wide receivers selected in this round, including Hakeem Nicks, AJ Green, Julio Jones and Dez Bryant. Any of these guys are great as a #1 option for years to come.

It seemed to be the time to select injured elite running backs as Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Darren McFadden were all selected.  There is too much risk for them for my taste at this point in the draft.

Wes Welker seems to be the biggest reach with his age (31 in May).

ROUND THREE

3.01 Marshawn Lynch, RB SEA
3.02 Michael Vick, QB PHI
3.03 Roddy White, WR ATL
3.04 DeMarco Murray, RB DAL
3.05 Vincent Jackson, WR TB
3.06 Tom Brady, QB NE
3.07 Rookie 1.01
3.08 Greg Jennings, WR GB
3.09 Frank Gore, RB SF
3.10 Mike Wallace, WR PIT
3.11 Eli Manning, QB NYG
3.12 Michael Bush, RB CHI

I really liked the picks of DeMarco Murray, the rookie 1.01, and Eli Manning.  If Murray is healthy, he can be a dominant running back with Romo’s aerial assault distracting defenses.

Trent Richardson (the rookie 1.01) is usually selected at the bottom of the second round or top of the third, so this is great value.

The Vincent Jackson pick seems to be a round or two early.

Frank Gore with his selector’s comment “So I’m living in the past…It’s comfy” makes zero sense here.  Gore was the 77th player selected in a money dynasty league I am in that just finished drafting.

Unfortunately as with any dynasty draft that was held early, the Michael Bush selection looks like a major reach knowing now, what wasn’t known then.

ROUND FOUR

4.01 Steven Jackson, RB STL
4.02 Kenny Britt, WR TEN
4.03 Victor Cruz, WR NYG
4.04 Philip Rivers, QB SD
4.05 Jonathan Stewart, RB CAR
4.06 Percy Harvin, WR MIN
4.07 Darren Sproles, RB NO
4.08 Brandon Marshall, WR CHI
4.09 Miles Austin, WR DAL
4.10 Ahmad Bradshaw, RB NYG
4.11 Dwayne Bowe, WR KC
4.12 Jeremy Maclin, WR PHI

As boring as it sounds, I thought everyone drafted well in the fourth round with the Kenny Britt pick at 4.02 having the most value if he stays healthy.  Of course, I liked my own choice of Jeremy Maclin at 4.12.

ROUND FIVE

5.01 Jordy Nelson, WR GB
5.02 CJ Spiller, RB BUF
5.03 Aaron Hernandez, TE NE
5.04 Mark Ingram, RB NO
5.05 Roy Helu, RB WAS
5.06 Antonio Brown, WR PIT
5.07 Stevie Johnson, WR BUF
5.08 Rookie 1.02
5.09 DeSean Jackson, WR PHI
5.10 Fred Jackson, RB BUF
5.11 Marques Colston, WR NO
5.12 Trent Cole, DE PHI

The best value was the rookie 1.02 pick, who could be Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon, or Robert Griffin III.  I also liked using the back-to-back picks to corner the market on premier defensive ends.  The Jacksons, DeSean and Fred, were understandable in this round, but I would have went for more upside.

6.01 Jason Pierre-Paul, DE NYG
6.02 Jermichael Finley, TE GB
6.03 Vernon Davis, TE SF
6.04 Jared Allen, DE MIN
6.05 Denarius Moore, WR OAK
6.06 Rookie 1.03
6.07 Terrell Suggs, DE BAL
6.08 Justin Tuck, DE NYG
6.09 Julius Peppers, DE CHI
6.10 Rookie 1.04
6.11 Patrick Willis, LB SF
6.12 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN

I loved the DE run that caused some players like Justin Tuck and an old Julius Peppers to be selected earlier than they should have.  Some solid rookie pick steals (1.03, 1.04) combined with the infamous “draft for value at an untapped position” with the Patrick Willis (6.11) pick occurred while everyone else was chasing DEs.

ROUND SEVEN

7.01 Desmond Bishop, LB GB
7.02 Steve Smith, WR CAR
7.03 Tony Romo, QB DAL
7.04 Torrey Smith, WR BAL
7.05 Rookie 1.05
7.06 Beanie Wells, RB ARI
7.07 Rookie 1.06
7.08 Michael Crabtree, WR SF
7.09 D’Qwell Jackson, LB CLE
7.10 Mikel Leshoure, RB DET
7.11 Calias Campbell, DE ARI
7.12 Reggie Bush, RB MIA

Once again, this was a great round to pick up the rookie 1.05 and 1.06 picks as some owners, including myself, chose to ignore the draft picks as there were no names attached to them.  The selections of Mikel Leshoure and Calias Campbell seemed to be a few rounds too early with Leshoure’s injury concerns having never played a down in the NFL and Campbell simply not being very effective last year.  I thought Reggie Bush at the 7.12 was right about where he should go.

ROUND EIGHT

8.01 James Laurinaitis, LB STL
8.02 Navarro Bowman, LB SF
8.03 Ben Roethisberger, QB PIT
8.04 Jason Witten, TE DAL
8.05 Derrick Johnson, LB KC
8.06 Greg Little, WR CLE
8.07 Colin McCarthy, LB TEN
8.08 Jahvid Best, RB DET
8.09 Daryl Washington, LB ARI
8.10 Rookie 1.07
8.11 Brandon Pettigrew, TE DET
8.12 Jabaal Sheard, DE CLE

Ben Roethlisberger is great value in the eighth round – he never seems to get drafted past the sixth or seventh in most dynasty drafts.  I wasn’t crazy about Greg Little (8.06) with more proven wide receivers still on the board. Jahvid Best (8.08) is another guy who I think is a bad reach at this point in the draft.  Ben Tate, who was selected at 9.03 has a higher dynasty value regardless of who is now in front of him on the depth chart.

ROUND NINE

9.01 Sean Lee, LB DAL
9.02 Charles Johnson, DE CAR
9.03 Ben Tate, RB HOU
9.04 Rookie 1.08
9.05 Lawrence Timmons. LB PIT
9.06 Demarcus Ware, LB DAL
9.07 Kendall Hunter, RB SF
9.08 Peyton Hillis, RB KC
9.09 Sean Weatherspoon, LB ATL
9.10 London Fletcher, LB WAS
9.11 Pierre Garcon, WR WAS
9.12 Santonio Holmes, WR NYJ

As I mentioned earlier, Ben Tate is tremendous value at the 9.03.  Being a Steelers homer, I also like the Lawrence Timmons (9.05) value with him hopefully playing the entire year at ILB instead of OLB.  The Pierre Garcon pick could be a boom or bust pick; however, I like it in the ninth round.  I don’t understand the love for London Fletcher (9.10) as he is old and does not have a team right now.

ROUND TEN

10.01 Sidney Rice, WR SEA
10.02 JJ Watt, DE HOU
10.03 Pat Angerer, LB IND
10.04 Reggie Wayne, WR IND
10.05 Jerod Mayo, LB NE
10.06 Fred Davis, TE WAS
10.07 Antonio Gates, TE SD
10.08 Mike Williams, WR TB
10.09 Paul Posluszny, LB JAX
10.10 Vincent Brown, WR SD
10.11 Von Miller, LB DEN
10.12 Kyle Rudolph, TE MIN

The best values found in the tenth round were Jerod Mayo and Fred Davis. Mayo might never be the #1 linebacker again, but he can stay in the top ten for many years to come.  Fred Davis can be a knucklehead, but as the ninth tight end selected, he has tremendous value this late. The two picks I’m not crazy about were the Tampa Mike Williams (10.08) and my very own Kyle Rudolph (10.12).  Mike Williams faded last year, had issues keeping himself in shape and was revealed to be a knucklehead.  Kyle Rudolph’s value took a hit thanks to John Carlson joining the Vikings.

I had a lot of fun taking part in the mock.

Andy Miley is the host of Dynasty Blitz Podcast on Blog Talk Radio, Dynasty/Keeper Football Staff Writer at Fantasy Alarm and can be found on twitter @AndrewMiley

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Greg G.

    March 30, 2012 at 6:35 am

    What did you think of Richardsons pro day? Hearing Tampa really likes him. Assuming he lands there how does Blount factor in? Thanks for the article!

  2. Krcil

    March 30, 2012 at 6:37 am

    One curious thing i noticed is that Mario Williams was not selected in these top 10. With all things considered like his previous injury and his new team. Why did he drop out of the top 10 rounds? Was he listed as a straight LB (not like Suggs who is DE/LB)?

    • Steve Wyremski

      March 30, 2012 at 7:03 am

      He’s listed as an LB and it was before he signed anywhere. Jene Bramel played it well and selected him a few days before he signed. Great foresight by Jene on that one since he’ll be DE eligible.

      Re: Richardson. Still clearly the #1 rookie (to me). I took the 1.01 and that’s exactly where I’m going with it.

    • Ken Kelly

      March 30, 2012 at 7:07 am

      Actually, that’s my bad on the classification issue. It’s fixed now. Suggs was actually listed as a DE and Ware as a LB, so that makes a difference. I had assumed they were listed as a hybrid in the database used.

      Mario Williams was taken at pick 13.03 as a LB by Jene Bramel. He said the following when made the pick prior to free agency:

      “A bit of a gamble here, but I’m fully expecting Williams to sign with a 4-3 team and be re-classified to DE. When that happens, he’s capable of 45+ solos and an absolute steal eight rounds after the elite DEs went off the board.”

  3. Cyrus

    March 30, 2012 at 8:28 am

    6.05 Denarius Moore, WR OAK
    6.06 Rookie 1.03
    6.07 Terrell Suggs, DE BAL
    6.08 Justin Tuck, DE NYG
    6.09 Julius Peppers, DE CHI
    6.10 Rookie 1.04
    6.11 Patrick Willis, LB SF
    6.12 Demaryius Thomas, WR DEN

    Seriously? Moore before Thomas? Moore before the 1.03? I’m confused by this.

    • Sensei_John_Kreese

      March 30, 2012 at 9:58 am

      Yeah, im with you there. Actually, there is a ton here that i don’t get.

      Gronkowski at 1.7, and Hernandez at 5.3

      Vincent FREAKING Jackson over Trent Richardson???

      Stevie Johnson over the 1.2?

      Denarius Moore and Justin Tuck over Justin Blackmon

      In the words of Vince Lombardi…”what the hell is goin on here??”

      • Steve Wyremski

        March 30, 2012 at 12:23 pm

        Hernandez CLEARLY has nagging injury issues, which scares some people away. I would have selected him as my #2 if it was a 1.5 or we could start more than 3 TEs (I was targeting F.Davis or Celek later at that point).

        Gronk pick was because he’s a difference maker that I know will be around for almost 10 years (a la Tony G) and the lack of that remaining at that spot as compared to what was remaining on the board and would fall to the next pick.

        Agree on VJax. I was thrilled to land TRich.

        Stevie J over the 1.02 — QBs are on the hit list next in the rookie draft and they were falling like lead. There are 2 solid rookie QBs and I wanted one. Took Stevie J because I didn’t want to roll with only rookies (have you SEEN my roster and the number of rookie picks I acquired – 1.01, 1.03). Needed a solid #2WR well before another rookie to add. I want to compete year 1, as well, as grab solid rookies so another rookie pick didn’t make sense.

        I have an article coming that’ll explain the complete thought process of my 42 round draft and how I saw the board fall and tendencies that I took advantage of/missed out on.

        • Chris R

          March 30, 2012 at 1:46 pm

          I don’t agree that Hernandez has nagging injury issues. Missed two games with a knee sprain last year but didn’t bother him later in the season.

          Infact, if he had not missed those games, and did not need a few games to get back up to speed, he would have easily exceed 1000 yards receiving and had another 1-3 TDs.

          Much better value than the Gronk pick. Even Gronk was pick Aaron as the 2012 breakout TE on the NFL network (taking that with a grain of teammate salt).

        • Sensei_John_Kreese

          March 30, 2012 at 4:08 pm

          Agree to disagree on Hernandez, the number 3 TE in fantasy last year.

          As far as Stevie goes…I’m a Bills fan. I’ve always thought he was overrated. I think best case scenario, he gets you 1100 or so yards receiving. It’s just that Andrew Luck is, as you know, a once in a lifetime prospect. I’d rather have Blackmon than SJ. I’ve been wrong before though.

          • Steve Wyremski

            March 30, 2012 at 7:08 pm

            I wouldn’t prefer Blackmon over SJ at this point. SJ any day. Blackmon is very overrated right now.

            With the 1.03 – getting Luck or Griffin, regardless. I’ll take Griffin/SJ over Luck/Blackmon in any situation (but again.. I’m not a huge Blackmon guy).

            FWIW, Hernandez is my #3 TE. I’m just giving some insight into the perception of others on the nagging injuries and why he slipped. I’ve heard it in trade offers and read it on message board. Big fan of the guy… while he only missed the games you noted, he’s certainly played through some nagging injuries. As I noted above, no way I was going to take another TE at that point given its 1 ppr and only 2 can be started. He was a solid value pick, I certainly can’t disagree with that.

            Gronk was the best pick at that spot in the first from my perspective. Offered the most consistency, longevity, and still very young.

      • Steve Wyremski

        March 30, 2012 at 12:25 pm

        Also, if you look at the date, the Demaryius pick was well before Manning in Denver. I imagine a bit increase in DT’s stock in startups.

        • Cyrus

          March 30, 2012 at 2:06 pm

          I can understand a little bit that this was before Manning.

          But Thomas is still a much bigger stud to me than Moore, even if both had Manning throwing to them.

          Maybe I am just down on Moore, I think he is an excellent upside flyer, but not someone I am building my team around. Now I have to hunt through my dynasties and see which ones I have him in.

          • Steve Wyremski

            March 30, 2012 at 7:02 pm

            I have Thomas ahead of Moore regardless as well, but I think before Manning it’s a heck of a lot closer.

            And as Chris says below. Bloom is a HUGE Moore fan.

          • Cyrus

            March 31, 2012 at 6:34 am

            Well I checked in my forum and a few people have top ten or top fifteen predictions for Moore. Didn’t realize his hype was that high.

            I am still hoping DHB does something, he looked good last year too, but I was happy to find Moore stashed on two of my dynasties.

          • Ches

            April 18, 2012 at 9:49 pm

            I’d take Decker over Thomas or Moore. No real difference in age, and a superior route-runner (You know Manning will LOVE that!), I think Decker has potential to become to a 10 or 15 receiver this season. I see Thomas landing much lower in the rack and stack. And I don’t think Moore will have much of an immediate impact.

    • Chris R

      March 30, 2012 at 1:41 pm

      Sigmond Bloom loves Denarius Moore.

      Can’t argue that he has some serious play making ability…just inconsistent last year.

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  5. Sensei_John_Kreese

    March 31, 2012 at 6:45 am

    I’m sorry to keep coming back to this, but i have to ask, because i don’t understand. Why is everyone so down on Justin Blackmon right now? I’m not suggesting that he is AJ Green or Larry Fitzgerald, but I’m not seeing anything in his college career that would give people a reason to not be on board with this guy.

    Also, Steve, i wasn’t knocking Gronk at 1.7. I was simply wondering why there was a 4 round discrepancy between he and Hernandez. You’ve already given YOUR reason for not drafting him, but someone should have.

    • Steve Wyremski

      April 1, 2012 at 7:34 am

      I don’t disagree with you there. He certainly shouldn’t have fallen the way he did. +1

    • Steve Wyremski

      April 1, 2012 at 7:37 am

      Re: Blackmon

      He has fantastic college production, but he’s not elite in any area. He’s solid all around, but not the same prospect of say Calvin, Andre Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, etc. and he’s being considered at their draft level from a draft slot position.

  6. Greg G.

    March 31, 2012 at 6:54 am

    I’ve heard that his speed isn’t elite, he doesn’t have the height, and he takes plays off. I don’t think people are arguing his first round talent. It’s just that early on, draftniks were touting him as the next Calvin Johnson which is IRRESPONSIBLE. What were seeing now is a regression to the mean, a step closer to reality.

    • Jackson C.

      March 31, 2012 at 8:52 pm

      I think Blackmon could be an Anquan Boldin (at best)

  7. Matt

    June 24, 2012 at 3:19 pm

    Was Matt Ryan drafted at all?

    Thought he would be in the first 8 rounds easy.

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