The DLF Mailbag
Welcome to the latest edition of the weekly mailbag.
Send me your questions using the DLF Mailbag Form and I’ll include the best in future articles. Remember the guidelines to have the best chance at seeing your question get posted:
1.) Dynasty questions only, no start/sit questions
2.) Help me help you by providing sufficient information about your league (e.g. line-up requirements/PPR or non-PPR/etc.), and include your first name and where you’re from.
Let’s get to it!
1: I’m very thin at RB with only Ray Rice as a legit starter. Was I right to take the 1.01 in return for AJ Green and the 1.12? – EagleMathDude via Twitter
Well, this one will create some real debate I suspect, but I won’t beat around the bush and I’ll say you overpaid.
If AJ Green isn’t worth more than the 1.01, it’s darn close and there’s no reason you should have had to include the 1.12 to get this deal done. There will be some nice RB prospects at the end of the first/top of the second and you could use one of them in addition to Trent Richardson.
Aside from the 1.12, for my money AJ Green is a proven player and trading him for only a prospect is risky. By no means am I saying that he is untradeable but I’d want an existing running back for him. Before considering this deal, I would have exhausted the possibility of adding a little to your side to get Ray Rice, Rice Foster or LeSean McCoy. And I would have also approached the MJD and Mathews owners with the Green straight-up.
In your defense, Trent Richardson is going for these types of prices. So if you wanted him, you probably needed to pay this heavily. I just have a problem treating him like he’s already a proven player in the NFL.
2: I’m rebuilding my team. I have the 1.03 and need a QB. Would you go with RGIII or trade it? Note: I also have the 2.01 and my current QB is Ryan Fitzpatrick. – Brian in Miami
I’d trade it and at the risk of a little self-promotion, I’ll point you toward an article I wrote regarding rookie draft strategy a couple of months ago.
As the article details, the only surefire way to maximize the value of your 1.03 and solve your quarterback need is to go after a proven player. Frankly, this is even easier at quarterback because positional scarcity and career length are working in your favor.
My advice in your case is to wait until your rookie draft has begun, then put the 1.03 up for “auction” on your site. Tell people you want a quarterback for it, but you are prepared to pick with it if no one offers a compelling player or package. My bet is that someone will show up with a quarterback you have ranked higher than RGIII. And if not, you’ve lost nothing in the process.
3: I need to move Matt Forte, Jamaal Charles or the 1.01 in return for a WR. Which would you deal? – Keith via Twitter
The ship has sailed on dealing Matt Forte for anything close to his true value. Most owners will have overreacted to the Michael Bush signing and those who didn’t will try to low ball you anyway. Forte is either a hold or a buy-low at the moment, so cross him off the list.
As to which of Jamaal Charles or the 1.01 to deal, it just comes down what type of risk you’d rather take. Charles has the risk of coming back from a serious knee injury and competition for carries from Peyton Hillis. While Trent Richardson has the risk of never having played in the league and uncertainty about where he lands via the NFL draft.
The 1.01 and Charles are very close in value for me, so I’d trade whichever one netted me a better receiver. Pure speculation: I bet in most leagues that is the 1.01. We saw from the first question the type of values people are getting for the 1.01. AJ Green currently has an average draft position of 1.08 and Charles 2.08. So, deals are apparently out there to be had where you can get a top end wide receiver (Green, Hakeem Nicks, Larry Fitzgerald or Julio Jones) for the pick alone. Purely on ADP, for Charles you should expect guys like Mike Wallace, Greg Jennings or Dez Bryant. Since you mention in your note that this is a non-PPR, you probably can hope for the top end of each of those groups in return.
4: Why Isn’t Rodgers the 1.01 in dynasty start-ups? Longevity, consistency and position PPG advantage is unrivaled? – struts2much via Twitter
He’s pretty close to that actually. His current ADP for dynasty start-ups is 1.03 – tied with Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy and slightly behind Calvin Johnson’s 1.02. So with the limited data that’s out there, a sizeable minority of people agree with you that he is the overall top pick.
Let’s break down some of the reasons you list for why to take him 1.01:
Longevity: Undoubtedly true. Rodgers is only 28 years old and has six or seven high production years ahead of him. On top of that, the other elite level QBs (Tom Brady and Drew Brees) are aging at this point. And this is why we see Matt Stafford and Cam Newton with elevated ADPs as people chase youth. Rodgers has a tremendous advantage here. However, I can already hear screams coming from the Calvin Johnson camp. He’s only 26 and has the same future outlook. The longevity argument is a toss-up between these two elite level players.
Consistency: Over the last three years, Rodgers is the only player to land in the top-5 in quarterback scoring all three times – that is a significant edge over the competition at quarterback and probably means the others are being somewhat overdrafted. However, the running backs have shown consistency, too. Rice, Foster and McCoy all have finished in the top-5 at their position the last two years running.
Position PPG Advantage: In a 4-pt/TD PPR league, Rodgers had a 1.0 PPG advantage over Brees, Johnson had a 1.5 edge on Wes Welker, and our three running backs all ended as the top-3 in PPG at their position with a sizeable spread from Fred Jackson.
Where we do see a bigger spread is between these top guys and the number ten PPG player at their positions. The spread there was Rodgers 9.3, Calvin 6.0 and Foster 6.5. So, I suppose the argument could be made that the advantage over “the field” is higher with Rodgers. However, let’s remember that the number ten quarterback is a low end starter and the number ten running back or wide receiver are elite starters for their respective teams.
So, what does all this mean?
To me, it means the ADPs for these five guys all make sense and it comes down to owner preference. There isn’t a clear cut argument in favor of Rodgers or any of the others, either. What it does say is that having a top-5 start-up pick is a rather nice thing indeed!
Editor’s Note: Tim Stafford can be found @dynastytim on twitter and in the forums as tstafford.
