49 Responses to “The DLF Mailbag”

  1. Sensai_John_Kreese says:

    My comment is in reference to question 1. I own AJ Green, and the person who will be drafting Trent Richardson is in desperate need for a receiver. I was halfway contemplating sending him an AJ Green for Trent deal straight up. If AJ Green were a prospect in THIS draft class, do you feel he would go before Richardson? Do you feel, irrespective of where he is drafted, that AJ is substantially better than Blackmon? I mean from strictly a talent perspective.

    Thanks Tim

    • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

      Also considered sending AJ and the 1.9 for the 1.2 (Trent) and the 1.5.

    • Cyrus says:

      I believe AJ Green and Julio Jones are both better WR than Blackmon, and would go before him.

      Richardson v. AJ Green depends on need and league setup. In my league, Ingram went 1.01, so Richardson would definitely go 1.01. That said, AJ Green is special and if you had a need at WR, I would take him over Richardson.

      I’m taking Richardson at 1.01 in my league. RB’s have a short shelf life, which a lot of people think means you take a different position, but to me that means if you have the chance to take a RB who will be a starter for at least 4-6 years at a high level, you do it.

      That is similar to the RBBC argument– because RBBC is popular, RB’s are less valuable. I agree that there are more RB’s and any RB in a RBBC is less valuable–but that makes the RB1 even MORE valuable in my mind. A healthy Peterson, Ray Rice, Foster type of back has a lot more value than the RBBC backs that can be had for cheap. But if you miss out on one of the franchise RB’s, the position as a whole has less value.

      • MoraccoMole says:

        This is the reason that I did this trade. This was a opportunity to potentially lock up a rb slot next to ray rice for the next four years. With fitz, nicks, and jennings in the fold, I still a solid wr corps for those four years. Also, during that time there will other opportunities to obtain another rising wr stud. In my league, these are easier to obtain than their rb counterparts.

  2. tstafford says:

    SJK,

    I think if AJ Green and Trent Richardson were both in this draft, the majority of people would say to take Richardson. But the thing is they aren’t and AJ Green has shown that he can perform in the NFL. Many aren’t aware that AJ Green and Dalton were the first rookie-rookie combo to produce a 1000 yard receiver. Plus the list of 1000 yard rookie WRs is short as well. And please don’t tell me that’s thanks in large part to Dalton!!

    If you want to deal AJ Green for T.Rich, that’s fine. I wouldn’t but I don’t have a real problem with it. AJ/1.09 for Trent/1.05 would be a very reasonable deal IMO.

    Tim

  3. tstafford says:

    Oh and as to AJ Green vs. Blackmon. That’s night and day. AJ Green is the best WR prospect since Calvin Johnson. People are grossly underestimating his talent if they are comparing him to Blackmon. Sorry, there I said it. Julio Jones is also a superior talent. There I said that too.

    • Sensei_John_Kreese says:

      Thanks Tim, I’m glad you said it. I feel the same way.

    • RobbyRobDU says:

      I take Julio over AJ everytime. Also don’t go overboard saying Blackmon isn’t going to be elite, many players exceed expectations, many under perform.

      WRs are overrated in Rookie Drafts in general.

  4. CamIsMyHomeBoy says:

    I’m in a 12 man league and about a middle of the road team as I took over a bad team from a member who was removed from the league. I don’t plan on competing for at least another year and have been offered Jon Stewart, Jordy Nelson, and a 2013 first (will be 1.10-1.12 as he has one of the best teams in the league) for Ryan Mathews. I’m thinking I need to take the deal. Any suggestions?

    • Cam,
      I was in a similar situation last year where I took over a bad team, about 1 year or two from being able to compete. I think you can do better for Ryan Mathews. I’ll give you an example of what I did. My running back was Matt Forte. Number 1, I waited until 4 games into the season before I made the deal. Number 2, I made it perfectly clear that Matt Forte was up for trade and would go to the highest bidder. By week 4, your best offers will come from the guys who ahead in the standings with legit playoff chances. They will fall over each other to make sure they will not let the other guy get a RB of Mathews caliber, thus overpaying.

      The stakes will be much higher in the season and you will get a better trading market. Look at it this way. You are two years from caring about the standings. You have plenty of time on your hands. So be patient and you will get a much better return for Mathews.

      By the way, the best team in the league at the time of my trade gave me Jordy Nelson, the draft rights to LaMichael James, and 2 2012 1st round picks for Matt Forte. So I recommend waiting until the season starts to trade a guy of Mathews caliber. He’ll be a much more valuable commodity IMO.

    • Adam says:

      I would pull the trigger on that one. You say yourself you are a “middle of the road” team, so that means you can wait on Stewart for a year to leave Carolina. If he does end up being traded this year, you likely wouldn’t be able to get this deal anymore. The other owner is likely trying to sell high on Jordy’s 15 TDs. But, at 26, and the #2 option in an offense with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, a 75/1200/10 stat line isn’t out of the question as long as he is a Packer. I would try, however, to get their 1st round pick from this year, as I feel this is a much deeper class than the 2013. If he doesn’t bite, then you have 2 stabs at the 1st round next year (assuming you still have your own pick) with Stewart hopefully finding a new home. Hit on one of those picks and you could go from being a pretender to contender. Just one man’s opinion.

    • CJH says:

      I think the offer is close, but I would push back for more (just for the “why not” reason). Tell the owner you like his offer, but you think you could get more from other teams in the league for Matthews, and in particular, from a team with a draft pick likely to finish higher than worse and therefore have a better 2013 draft pick. Highlight that the first round pick is really just an early second round pick given the very likely chance that his team will finish high (especially with the addition of Matthews). Ask for his 2012 first round pick rather than 2013 (this lets you build your team faster) and an additional second round pick in 2013. Or, try to add another young prospect on his team that might not hurt him much on his dept chart. Tell him you’ll do that deal now for these additions, but otherwise you would prefer to shop Mathews around the league – or just keep him and build a team around him.

      Don’t disclose this, of course, but the risk in actually waiting (and in waiting more than a few weeks) is that Stewart gets traded to a team where he is the top dog – and this owner might just prefer to keep him. Right now the trade might only make sense for him given the uncertainty of Stewart’s position. So you want to push back and see what he says, but if he says no and you do shop Matthews without any better offers, come back to this owner and tell him you might consider the same trade he made but with a 2012 third round pick. That will at least get the conversation going again without you appearing too weak.

  5. bob says:

    I don’t know if you are going to find much better than Stewart, Nelson, and a first… Might be a good idea to wait… or he might get hurt and lose all value its a risky game to play. If you value Nelson as a top 20 WR , I think I would make that deal. But I also don’t see Mathews as surefire top 10 guy as many do..

  6. Joe E says:

    I also own the 1.01 and am currently negotiating a deal to get out of it, but would like to make sure I’m not selling myself short. 12 man PPR IDP league, 30 man rosters, 15 keepers . My keeper RBs are DMC, Chris Johnson. My Keeper WRs are Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe, Antonio Brown and Denarius Moore. I have the 1.01 and the 1.09. The current deal on the table is Mike Wallace plus the 1.01 for Ryan Mathews and the 1.04. It seems pretty even to me, but could use some advice before pulling the trigger on this deal. Much Thanks

    • Paul says:

      I’d keep Wallace and the 1.01. I think most here at this website would, too.

      I wish you well.

    • Chris R says:

      Don’t like it either. Who are you hoping to get at 1.04?

      I would like the combo of TRich and Wallace better than Mathews and Blackmon. Only if you really want RG3 or Luck would it make sense to me…at least more sense.

  7. Greg says:

    I as fortunate enough to be able to pick A.J. last year in my leagues rookie draft and just traded for Julio. I would not trade either for Blackmon without quite a bit added to the mix.

  8. Nickdib says:

    What do you guys think of this trade I did for AJ green a week or 2 ago?

    I gave: Darren mcfadden

    I got: aj green
    Torrey smith
    14th rookie pick this year

    • Joe E says:

      I’d say good job on that one. As a fellow DMC owner, I know the pain you go through with that dude’s injury bug, so I can see why you’d deal him for what I consider to be a future top WR1 in AJ Green. Torrey Smith has upside as well. Rookie draft is deep this year, so you’ll have a few good options at 14 imho. When McFadden’s healthy, the sky is the limit. When he’s not, the limit’s the sky.

      • Boomer says:

        That’s a great deal for you. McFadden healthy and performing is worth just more than AJ Green alone. He’s hurt all the time and you got two other solid pieces.

  9. Jason says:

    A.J. Green will be a bum in a year or two… why??? Because he’s on my team.. my star player.. and that’s how things always end up. lol

  10. Matt says:

    I have picks 1, 5 and 6 because my team is bad and because of trades I made to pick up picks. I am taking a qb with pick1 because we start 2. The guy picking 2nd is taking the qb I don’t pick. I was offered pick 3 and 12 for picks 5 and 6. If i made this trade I would take t rich 1 and take a qb at 3. Any thoughts?

    • Nickdib says:

      I don’t see why if you get the 3 u would then take t rich at the 1. The guy already said he would be taking a QB. So why not choose ur favorite QB at the 1 and still get t rich? And good trade for u

  11. Matt says:

    I can’t decide who to take, Luck or RGIII. Plus, he might change his mind and grab T rich at 2.

    • the clarion contrarian says:

      take luck – cant miss and then scoop up T rich at 3 start counting your future dollars

      • Matt says:

        I was also offered jimmy graham, Percy harvin, pick 18 and 2013 1st for pick 1.1.

        • Cyrus says:

          That is tricky, but I would definitely give up my 1.01 for Graham, Harvin and a future 1st.

          Unless you have a huge need at QB or RB, in which case Luck/Griffin or Richardson really suit your team better, that is.

          You are getting a top 10 WR and a top 2 TE AND a future 1st. Value says to take it.

        • Adam says:

          Wow! Take that trade. Harvin is still really young. Like 24 or something. Graham is Drew Brees’ #1 target. Wouldn’t hesitate… unless you can get more.

  12. the clarion contrarian says:

    home run for you I would gladly accept green for mcfadden w/no boot

    of course w/ mcfadden he comes with his own walking boot

  13. phorts says:

    Thanks for the feedback my Forte/Charles/TRich Dilemma. No sooner did i finish reading your article I got an offer for T Rich.

    I Give: 1.1
    I Get: 1.4/Dez Bryant

    Luck and/or RG3 are guaranteed to be there at 1.4, so let’s just start with that.

    My Team:

    QB: None (Noteable FA’s are Cutler, Locker, Dalton, Flynn)
    RB: Charles, Forte, Hunter, Felix, Hardesty, Hillis
    WR: AJ, Torrey, Little, TBMW
    TE: Witten

    AJ getting up there in age and the youngsters Little and Smith arent quite ready to be WR1′s yet so i’ve set my sights on WR’s across the league. So far getting shot down on the top of the crop for the 1.1 (AJG, Calvin, Julio, Fitz).

    Would you do this or trade lesser pieces for a lesser WR and pickup a FA QB? (Would have to draft one but wont cost much, and will likely draft one regardless as i dont expect Luck/RG3 to start for me in 2012).

    Would u pull the trigger or roll the dice and wait till post draft?

    Thanks for your hard work and keen insight!

    • Cyrus says:

      That is tricky, as you cannot GUARANTEE that Luck or Griffin are there at 1.04.

      However, you have a clear need at QB and should consider drafting one at 1.01. (I like Richardson a ton, but you have two RB1′s in Charles and Forte… very little depth though.)

      Because you should consider drafting a QB at 1.01, if you can guarantee that you get a QB at 1.04, then that trade makes perfect sense. You get what you want but pick up Dez for free. I am just as high on Griffin as Luck, so I think you should do it.

  14. CJH says:

    What are your guys thoughts on these two offers?

    I have the 1.2 in the upcoming draft with no pressing needs (I won last year and have pretty solid set of starters and depth). However, it’s a 2 qb league, so grabbing Luck or Griffen at 1.2 is definitely of value (and richardson will probably be there as well).

    I have just been offered:

    Graham and a 1.7 for Hernandez and my 1.2.
    OR
    Matthews and a 2.7 for my 1.2 and Blount.

    To make things more complicated, I have three first round draft pick in the 2013 draft (order to be decided), and I think I can package two of these and, if I make the trade for Graham above, the 1.7 for the 1.1 this year (and take luck or richarson). I might be able to package all three first rounders for the 1.1 this year as well – but I think the holder of that pick will want a first round this year to make the trade.

    Thoughts? I’ve posted my team below in case that influences your decisions:

    QB: Rodgers, Brees, Freeman, J. Johnson

    RB: Peterson, McFadden, Sproles, Stewart, S. Jackson, Blount,Vereen, Ridley

    WR: Nicks, Jennings, Dez, DeSean, Crabtree, Williams (TB), D. Thomas (Den), Cobb, Baldwin (KC)

    TE: Hernandez, Keller

    Three (3) 2013 First Round Picks (order to be determined).

    • CJH says:

      Nevermind. Just traded the 1.2, Keller, and my 2013 2nd for Graham (this way I get to keep Hernandez).

      • Cyrus says:

        You should have waited for advice.

        I definitely wouldn’t have taken the first trade (Graham and 1.07 for Hernandez and 1.02). Graham is clearly better at TE, but Hernandez is really good too and the drop from 1.02 to 1.07 is steep.

        I would have considered the Mathews trade to be decent value, although it is up to you to decide whether you prefer Mathews or Richardson. I’m thinking Richardson ends up in TB and Blount has minimal value, but as a Blount owner, I am hoping thats not the case.

        I definitely wouldn’t package three first rounders, or the 1.07 and two first rounders, for the 1.01. Way too much, in my opinion.

        Your final trade was a very steep price for Graham, especially as you have Hernandez already (top 5 TE). Graham should be top 2 TE for a few years, but you gave up the 1.02 and a 2nd to get him.

        • CJH says:

          I appreciate the comments, but I disagree. I have no need for the 1.2 this year, and I would much rather take the proven stud than the risk of a qb (that would just sit on my bench) or of Richardson (who would likely also sit on my bench). I have an abundance of starters and young players, but adding Graham to my team substantially helps my team in my opinion.

          Here are my reasonings:

          If this were a startup dynasty league – I think Graham goes ahead of Richardson, Luck and the rest of the rookies;

          Graham scored almost 100 points higher last year than Hernandez – therefore I improve my team by that much, arguably (plus now have Hernandez as an extra wideout and backup);

          Graham is 24 years old – I have him for probably the next 6-9 years at very high production;

          Graham scored FIFTH among all wideouts last year. Having basically a top wideout at the TE position give me a huge edge over the other top teams in my league;

          I acutally think Graham can do even better – and I like him more than Gronk, personally;

          If Graham was actually in the draft with all of the rookies and I had the 1.2 – I would have taken him over whoever was left;

          If you look at my team – It’s going to be solid for quite a few years (this is a ten team league – so my team has a ton of top 50 dynasty players). I built this team by acquiring draft picks on the cheap (selling high on players) and then turning the draft picks into proven young studs (ei, Graham, Bryant, Jennings, etc.) In fact, I only obtained the 1.2 by trade – I had the last pick in the first round after the season since I wont the championship. With this strategy, I’m ok with giving a team a little more to get the player(s) that I think help separate my team even more from the second and third best team for the next 3-5 years.

          I have one championship now out of two years, and I think Graham will make my team very difficult to beat in the future. Plus – with three first round draft picks next year (two of which I acquired with the strategy above) – I can trade all of those picks for the next player I covet.

          Thats my take – its worked out so far for me.

          • CJH says:

            I should also mention – in addition to three 2013 first round picks, I also have three 2013 third round picks. Basically – I have too many picks than I can actually use. We drop 5 players each year, and since my team is so deep it’s very hard to find five players to drop. Instead, I end up trading players off to accumulate future draft picks that I can then use as trade bait to improve my starters.

  15. Dan says:

    Would you trade stewart for Julio Jones straight up? I have chris johnson, 1.01 pick and Charles as my rbs. I need WRs

  16. Boomer says:

    I just dealt Heyward-Bey and rookie picks 1.6 and 1.8 for Mike Wallace straight up. You guys think I overpaid. I don’t need WR but felt it was a good deal.

    • CJH says:

      Generally, owners dramatically overvalue draft picks. They are never a sure thing – and you are taking a huge risk with every pick. If, instead of taking a risk on a prospect you can instead grab a proven young stud at that same position – what is the sense in passing up on trading for the proven stud only to take a risk on a player. Think of it this way – if you are drafting a player with the hope that that player becomes the next Mike Wallace – why not just trade for Mike Wallace? If you are drafting two Wideouts in the hopes that one becomes as good as Mike Wallace (or the top 10 or so wideout) – the same reasoning applies. It is much more likley that the “sure bet rookie” becomes the next David Terrell than the next Wike Wallace. Thus, if you are competing, or without a need in a particular area, I think the right move is to use your draft picks to go get that proven stud player that anchors your team – especially when that player is as young as wallace and still presents you with many years of production.

      However, whether this strategy (and this particular trade) makes sense, depends on your team needs, dynamic, and current place in the rebuilding/competing process. If you are rebuilding – then it makes sense to accumulate draft picks and young prospects that you are high on, and lots of them, so that you can load up on young talent, since many of them will not pan out. You are just playing the numbers game.

      If, however, you are competing AND are competing with a roster set with young players that will be on your team and produce for the next 4-6 years (or more), then I think you can move draft picks for a proven player without thinking twice. You’ll improve your team dramatically – without the risk, and will still have draft picks in future years to restock your young talent 2-3 years before you expect your starters to lose their value.

      On to this particular trade, although I would have preferred that you grabbed Jones, Nicks, Jennings, Fiztgerald, Green, or even Bryant, for instance (I’m not as high on Wallace as some are), I still think this was a good trade, assuming your team has no pressing needs, like running back for instance, that could have been addressed by drafting two running back prospects.

      • Matt says:

        So in a league where we start 2 Qb’s, I have Newton, Flacco and Palmer. I have the 1.1, I was proposed this trade: jimmy graham, Percy harvin, pick 18, and a 2013 1st. For Pick 1.1 and lance Kendrick’s. My initial reaction is yes. Should I do this? I would take Luck with 1.1.

        • CJH says:

          Contrary to my post above – I’m leaning towards no on this one – I think you take Luck. You could use the help at qb – and I think that would be more valuable than adding Graham or Harvin. Unless your team is otherwise stacked and Graham and Harvin put you over the hump to win this year or next. In a two qb league – its hard to come by good solid qb prospects – and almost impossible to trade for them once they are on a team. If you had someone better than Flacco – I would say take the trade. But its very possible that you’ll need to find a replacement for Flacco in a few years. If this was a one qb league – I would say take it for sure.

          Like I said though – if you think Graham and Harvin get you a championship – pull the trigger and try to draft tannenhill or a qb in next years draft.

  17. dallas says:

    I have the 1.1 in our rookie draft and I’m leaning towards taking Richardson and paring him up with Matthews. However, My qb’s are Palmer, Flacco and Locker. So it’s tempting to take Luck or RGIII. I’m also going to look at trade offers. My other rb’s are a mess: Blount and Moreno and not much else. So the question I have is do I take Richardson, Luck, or RGIII or try to trade the 1.1? If I trade 1.1 what should I try to get in return? Thanks.

    • CJH says:

      I would try to package the 1.1 for a young running back with elite status (Stewart-ish) and a draft pick in this years draft and a future first. That way you can add rb depth, still take one more later in the first, and have another pick next year to try moving up in the draft to get a stud wr, qb, etc (or just package both picks for a young proven wr/rb).

      If this sort of a trade is not available, I think you take Richardson with that outlook. Blount has some (little) upside and Moreno is almost useless in my book. Palmer will give you a year or so, Flacco is a mid-road fall back, and you have Locker who I am high on.

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