Draft Duel: Griffin over Luck?

Jeff Haverlack

luckgriffin
Congratulations!  You have the first pick in your fantasy league rookie draft and you have a need at the quarterback position.

If you are in this situation, you must admit that during those quiet moments, when left alone with your thoughts, far away from the neon pulse of SportsCenter or the NFL Network and the constant barrage of fantasy news streaming to your LCD screen, you’ve at least considered the possibility.

Could it be that Robert Griffin III is  the better fantasy selection over Andrew Luck?

If you listen to the talking the heads, you’ve heard that Stanford’s Andrew Luck is hailed as the best rookie quarterback since Peyton Manning, or even perhaps John Elway.  Put me down in the camp of the latter.  If you’ve read my rookie film room article on Luck, you understand why he is so highly rated.  However, this is fantasy football and an efficient, intelligent and strong armed quarterback doesn’t necessarily lead a team to fantasy prominence, even if he is of the once-in-three-decade variety.  The quarterback is not a team unto himself and without playmakers around him and a system that makes use of his talents, pedigree and promise, it simply won’t equate to fantasy production.

And this year, you have more information to help you make your decision.  It is now obvious that, barring a change of heart by Indianapolis, Andrew Luck will be a Colt and Robert Griffin III will be a Redskin.  So all things considered, is Andrew Luck the easy choice as first quarterback off the board?  Or is a selection of Robert Griffin III a sneaky fantasy selection?  It’s not an apples to apples comparison.

Andrew Luck
Indianapolis Colts
6’4″/234/4.67

Andrew Luck is a better prospect than any I have analyzed coming out of college, it really is that simple and I cannot overstate that.  To find fault in any area of his game is almost unfair because one has to look so closely to find it.  That being the case, to what end is it a worthy exercise?  Sure, I’d like to see him display the same velocity and accuracy rolling out to his left, but he’s plenty good enough.  It’s been said that he isn’t efficient with lifting his back foot during throws.  I’ve re-analyzed and while it’s true on occasion, I wouldn’t change a thing.  The point is, it’s all too easy to zoom in too closely in an attempt to find a fault.  It’s an exercise that need not be done for fantasy coaches.

The question marks surrounding Luck have nothing to do with the skills and abilities that he’s bringing to Indy as much as they are surrounding the Colts in general.  So much change, so much work to be done.  A new coaching staff, a new receiving corps, a new system and a lot of new faces.  There’s no other way to put it, there’s a major youth movement underway in Indianapolis.  Kudos to the Colts for not wavering on what needed to be done and to making it happen.  Gone are Peyton Manning, Pierre Garcon, Dallas Clark, Anthony Gonzalez , Joseph Addai, Jacob Tamme and even trusted center Jeff Saturday.  In a surprise move, Reggie Wayne has re-signed.  Will the Colts be successful enough at establishing a new foundation from which Andrew Luck may achieve his destiny?  They’ve done it before.

A selection of Andrew Luck as the first quarterback off the board is a selection with the belief that the tangible qualities of Luck, being as great as they are, are enough to dictate a level of ultimate success.  Jim Irsay has proven to be shrewd and successful owner and CEO over the years.  Time will now tell whether his level of success was set atop the capable arm and mind of Peyton Manning alone or if more variables were in the equation.  Either being the case, it appears as though the Colts have their next Peyton Manning and history may, indeed, repeat itself.

Remember Peyton’s first year and keep expectations low.  A 56.7% completion percentage, 26:28 TD-to-INT ratio and a 71.2 quarterback rating didn’t portend greatness to come.  Following is Luck’s three-year run with Stanford:

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2011 288 404 3517 71.3 8.71 62 37 10 11 169.7
2010 263 372 3338 70.7 8.97 81 32 8 6 170.2
2009 162 288 2575 56.3 8.94 63 13 4 6 143.5

Robert Griffin III
Washington Redskins
6’2 3/8″/223/4.41

Keep your ear to the ground and you’ll hear many scouts and general managers who prefer Robert Griffin III (RGIII) over Andrew Luck.  Natural and dynamic mobility, an engaging personality and a monster wrist-snap all combine to yield a very intriguing professional prospect.  Most experts don’t question whether both will be successful or not – the question is really how successful will they be?  In the NFL, the measuring sticks are different than in fantasy.  One needs only to view the fantasy production of Carolina’s Cam Newton in 2011 to see the potential.  The 6-10 Panthers missed the playoffs by a wide margin,  but in fantasy, Newton passed and ran his way to a top five fantasy performance in most scoring formats.  Not top five within the quarterback position, top five overall!

RGIII looks to be heading to the Redskins.  The only threat to that selection rests with the Colts who pick ahead of Washington and are seemingly locked on to to Andrew Luck.  It’s as good as a done deal as it gets at this stage in the game.  Whereas the Colts are rebuilding from a stripped down offense, the Redskins have pieces in place and have added more with the expectation that RGIII will need veteran weapons to produce early and often.  But have they done enough?  Additions of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan have solidified the depth chart, but don’t elicit a significant level of excitement when combined with the current corps of Santana Moss, Jabar Gaffney, Leonard Hankerson, Fred Davis and others.  Capable?  Yes.  Exciting?  No.

I am not a fan of owner Daniel Snyder nor Mike Shanahan.  However, one thing that can be said about Snyder is he is not afraid to spend the money to bring in big name free agents.  I would have preferred to have seen Vincent Jackson added, but this is not a process that will be determined a success over a single season.  I look for Snyder and the Redskins to make significant moves in free agency next year should this year’s experiment not produce immediate results.

Many are comparing RGIII with both Michael Vick and Cam Newton.  RGIII is not the runner that Vick was coming out, but is twice the passer.  RGIII is a more mature and sound passer than is Cam Newton based on my film review, as well.  He’s compact, effortless in his delivery, smart and with the aforementioned wrist-snap that makes him special.  The combination of his passing skills and dynamic running ability will strike fear in opposing defenses from day one.  I only wish he had a receiving corps.that had at least a single, young, WR1 as opposed to a stable of secondary receivers.  Santana Moss, should he stay in Washington, may get a bump in value, but I won’t be raising his personal ranking based on Griffin’s arrival.

RGIII’s assets are as intriguing as are Luck’s. Griffin’s fantasy prospects may even be greater early in his career, though.  At least enough that makes this debate a functional exercise.  If your scoring system awards quarterback touchdowns and rushing yards to the same level as running backs and wide receivers, the decision process gets much more difficult.  Griffin is sure to pile up rushing yards and score multiple times with his feet.  Should he develop chemistry with his receivers such that it provides notable passing yardage, Griffin has the potential to match Cam Newton’s numbers from 2011.  Expecting top five fantasy production in year one is not something I’m fond of forecasting, and I won’t do so here. However, it is a possibility.

Following is RGIII’s stat sheet from his four years at Baylor:

SEASON CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT
2011 291 402 4293 72.4 10.68 87 37 6 27 189.5
2010 304 454 3501 67.0 7.71 94 22 8 20 144.2
2009 45 69 481 65.2 6.97 42 4 0 4 142.9
2008 160 267 2091 59.9 7.83 61 15 3 28 142.0

Summary

You shouldn’t allow me to escape without giving you my conclusion.  Nor would I try.

It’s a good problem to have, but not one I want.  It is just these types of decisions that help create a fantasy dynasty or a perpetual rebuilding process.  Much like Indianapolis in 1998 who had to choose between Tennessee’s Peyton Manning and Washington State’s Ryan Leaf, get it wrong and the after effects and impact can be dire.  There is no shame in picking second and getting it wrong, but picking first and doing the same will create lost sleep and a fair amount of acrimony.  Of course, there is the great possibility that both quarterbacks will achieve to great levels and I believe that is a distinct possibility.  Ryan Leaf was not a well liked individual coming out whereas both Luck and Griffin III are.

I often like to take calculated risks in my fantasy selections.  It’s a live by the sword, die by the sword method of fantasy management.  However, when it comes to my quarterback selections, the league has a long history of prototypical quarterbacks that line the Hall of Fame.  Andrew Luck is as great as any of these coming out of college.  There is little doubt that the NFL game, especially at the quarterback position is changing very quickly.  Strong armed and accurate quarterbacks with good footwork remain the ultimate prize, but speed and mobility are quickly ascending the list of desired traits – Robert Griffin III has this in spades.

In the end, I would select Andrew Luck first overall, and not just in a duel here with RGIII.  Luck’s skill set, tangibles and maturity are just too much to pass up.  The Colts have a lot of work to do to build a franchise behind their new face, but it is my belief there is no better guide than experience toward being ultimately successful with any endeavor.  Jim Irsay and the Colts have done it before, understand the variables in the equation and can do it again.  Luck, as a better prospect than Peyton Manning in 1998, just has greatness written all over him and I’m not about to try to re-write history now.

It’s not often that a quarterback such as Andrew Luck is seen.  It’s even more rare that a second one matches up so well.   Make your own decision based on your own due diligence, but if you have the first pick in the draft this year and expect to have any need at the quarterback position within the next three years, make one of these two quarterbacks your selection.  There is nothing like 15+ years of fantasy stability at the quarterback position.

My selection is Andrew Luck.

jeff haverlack