Uncategorized

Just a Matter of Time

 

They say there’s a time and a place for everything and that rings true in fantasy football, especially in our beloved dynasty leagues. In any dynasty league, you could have a given team who wins a single championship based on good fortune throughout the year. To build a true dynasty and perennial contender, it takes much more than luck. Understanding the calendar and its impact on your building strategy is just one of the keys in building a winner.

While most of the water cooler talk this week is going to center around the Super Bowl, winning dynasty owners are methodically plotting their offseason building strategies.  In order to do that successfully, there are a few things I feel need to be understood about our current place in the offseason calendar.

1.) This is a terrible time to trade for a running back

There are certainly exceptions to every rule and if you were targeting a player like Jonathan Stewart or Mark Ingram whose values are probably deflated, it’s not totally unadvisable. However, for the most part, this is an awful time to be targeting runners because free agency and the draft will, not could, change the landscape here soon.

I’ve seen it happen way too often in dynasty leagues. Many owners severely overpaid for DeAngelo Williams last offseason, hoping he’d land in Miami or Denver. Instead, he re-signed in Carolina and his balloon popped. Pierre Thomas was a hot name last Summer, then the Saints drafted Mark Ingram. How would you like to have acquired Ryan Torain last year? He’s probably sitting on your league’s waiver wire about now.

If you think last year was unique, go back and look at how things have shaken out historically. The list simply goes on and on and on with every year giving us some surprise movement. In fact, look back to the case of Chester Taylor. In 2006, he rushed for 1,216 yards for the Vikings and was entrenched as a nice RB2 on dynasty teams. In April of 2007, the Vikings had Adrian Peterson unexpectedly fall into their laps in the draft. That was pretty much that in terms of Taylor’s career.

Fact is, there is way too much movement promised from now until the beginning of next season in regards to running backs. Think what you will about your guys being immune from serious threat, but history has shown us that trading for a running back prior to free agency or the draft can be a very dangerous proposition.

2.) This is nearly the BEST time to trade your rookie draft picks

The Senior Bowl is in the books and the NFL combine will be upon us shortly. From now until April, your league mates are susceptible to the brainwashing that’s about to come. The NFL Draft coverage this year promises to make it look as if we have no less than twenty can’t miss prospects who are the future of dynasty leagues. In reality, they’re not.

Perceived values for the draft picks outside of the top three or four will undoubtedly go down after the draft. That’s the just the way it is, folks. Sure, it’s pretty much a given that Andrew Luck, Justin Blackmon and Trent Richardson are the likely 1-2-3 in some way, shape, or form. Robert Griffin III is a likely pick in the upper half of round one as well. Outside of that, it’s a total crapshoot.

It’s easy to look at players like Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Chris Polk and a host of others and think they’re all going to end up in great spots like Cleveland or Cincinnati, but it’s just not going to happen. At this point last year, many had Shane Vereen ranked in upper half of round one. After the Patriots took him and paired him with Stevan Ridley and BGE, that changed things dramatically. Players like DeMarco Murray and even Bilal Powell or Kendall Hunter jumped him in most drafts.

You could say these picks still hold the same value since other players will end up in good situations, but history has shown us that less talented players ending up in good situations isn’t necessarily a sure fire recipe for success. Tatum Bell (Denver), Chris Perry (Cincinnati), JJ Arrington (Arizona), Brandon Jackson (Green Bay), Chris Henry (Tennessee), Tony Hunt (Philadelphia),  Glen Coffee (San Francisco) and a host of others headline the list of lesser talented players who had good workouts or combines to vault up draft boards in many dynasty leagues. In the end, they were all busts.

This is the time to take advantage of owners who feel like those late first and early second round picks are worthy of some of their productive players. You can take the risk and keep those kinds of picks, but I’d certainly invite some others to do it instead.

3.) Drop your kicker

If you still have your kicker, you really don’t need to. Kickers are a dime a dozen and finding one who leads the league in scoring consistently is pretty much impossible. The difference between a good kicker and a bad one is probably about two points a game in most leagues – not enough to make much of a difference. Personally, I’d rather make room for a deep prospect instead of carrying a kicker all offseason.  That brings me to my last point…

4.) This is a good time to be mining for talent

Most owners feel like this isn’t a good time to be looking for next year’s sleepers. Personally, I feel like it’s one of the best times. Without the week-to-week pressures of the season, you can take some time to really comb through the stats to unearth some sleepers. Who had some unusual target numbers last year? How could free agency affect different teams? Which young guys had great preseasons, but ended up on the practice squads? Who got put on IR early in the season and was just forgotten about? Who had great statistical second halves of the season that are hidden in their disappointing total season statistics? What team rosters in your league seem to be overloaded at certain positions? There are a bevy of questions you can answer with a little bit of research.

There are a ton of dynasty owners asleep at the wheel, being brainwashed by draft coverage, or making some very uneducated assumptions about their rosters. Take advantage of them now, before it’s too late.

Ken Kelly

Ken Kelly

Senior Partner - Executive Editor at DynastyLeagueFootball
Ken is a corporate trainer by day an a tireless editor of dynasty content by night. His passion for the World Champion Seattle Seahawks is second only to his love of fantasy football and the dynasty format.

Ken is on Twitter at DLF_KenK
Ken Kelly

Latest posts by Ken Kelly (see all)

23 Comments

23 Comments

  1. Greggy Pooh

    February 5, 2012 at 12:10 pm

    An owner just sent me a trade proposal. Just want to know your thoughts on it. Everyone is free to chime in.

    PPR Dynasty League

    I was offered Matt Forte and 1.3 and 2.3 in the upcoming draft for…

    Darren Sproles and Mike Wallace

    I already have 1.2 in the draft and was planning on selecting Richardson with that pick (someone moved up to take Luck at 1.1)

    My roster looks like this:

    Stafford,Cutler
    Wells, Rice, Sproles
    Fitzgerald, Harvin, Nicks, Wallace, T. Young
    Hernandez, Finley

    With a possible shift in philosophy and an already low number of targets for Wallace, I thought this was enough to pose the question. Would you do it? I could get Blackmon at 1.3 and strengthen other areas with 2.3 (We are IDP as well). Thanks.

    • Brad

      February 5, 2012 at 12:26 pm

      I would take that deal and RUN with it. My God thats a steal.

    • Scott

      February 5, 2012 at 3:00 pm

      Whoever made you that offer is brain dead. Honestly, it is so obviously lopsided that it might get vetoed. But, heck, since he sent it to you, take it and see what happens.

    • bigd

      February 5, 2012 at 7:22 pm

      doit doit doit doit doit

    • The Malocchio

      February 6, 2012 at 7:50 am

      Wow bro, why even ask that question?…I understand tho, when I get offered lopsided trades I always second guess myself but this time bro…JUMP ALL OVER THAT SHIT!!!…HIT ACCEPT NOW!!

    • ester michalek

      February 8, 2012 at 4:48 am

      How do I sign up for your league?

  2. Tony

    February 5, 2012 at 2:33 pm

    i agree, i would jump on that offer. U can get a top WR thru the draft to replace Wallace. Just make your picks count :)

  3. Paul

    February 5, 2012 at 2:56 pm

    Agreed! Take that and never look back.

    • Sensai_John_Kreese

      February 6, 2012 at 6:00 am

      I still do the deal in a heartbeat, but i would miss Sproles a ton more than Mike Wallace. Wow, i wish i had morons like that in my league. Congratulations!!!

  4. bigred

    February 6, 2012 at 9:54 am

    I play in a touchdown only dynasty league. 4pts. for qb passing td. 6pts. for a qb rushing td. I have tom brady, and mike vick.I have the third pick of round 1,2,3,4 and so on. my rb’s are(chris johnson,jahvid best,reggie bush,joseph addai,willis mcgahee)my recievers are(marques colston,aaron hernandez,roddy white,mike wallace,jordy nelson,lance moore,jermaine gresham,denarius moore,and greg little.)my question is,what should i do with pick 1:3. what qb would be better fit? luck or griffin? or do i try to trade some guys for better picks? i will listen to any and everyone for some advise. does the best available guy apply in my case?

    • Paul

      February 6, 2012 at 7:00 pm

      I’d dumb/trade Reggie Bush ASAP for whatever you can get. I’d consider Luck considering you already have a hit or miss QB. Joseph Addai and Lance Moore are almost cuttable in TD only. I’d also consider dealing Wallace or Colston for a RB if you can find someone with WR weakness. You have depth behind them and your RB’s are weak.

      Trading 1.3 and 2.3 for 1.1 to ensure Richardson is also an option but if you trade WR for RB it becomes obviously less important.

      • Paul

        February 6, 2012 at 7:00 pm

        Dump/trade. Sorry.

  5. Russ

    February 7, 2012 at 5:06 pm

    Help me on this. Youre saying drop Robbie Gould??? I understand the logic, but 1. I’m a lifelong Bears fan, so it’s fun watching my kicker every sunday and have had him since year 1 as my kicker, and 2. we have a 20 man roster, I currently have 19 men and pick 2.10. So I would only be able to draft 1 player, and then we can’t add anyone until after week 1. This might change, but for now is the rule.

    I think I just answered my own question! In my scenario and situation, it wouldn’t make sense to drop Mr. Gould as I would be entering week 1 without a kicker, unless i traded for one, but most everyone has 1 kicker.

    I understand the logic though if we were able to add players BEFORE week 1.

    • DLF_Jeff

      February 7, 2012 at 8:59 pm

      That’s the balance between your favorite player(s) and the actual fantasy point advantage to keeping a player over the potential of picking up a position player that has a chance to become a skill position starter on your team.

      We here at DLF don’t want to dictate what you HAVE to do … but just what we feel should be done, or at least an argument for why. It is up to each coach to at least consider the logic and then apply it to your situation. By doing that exercise, you have found that it makes sense to keep him. We can’t ask for me than to have our readers think “hmmm” and then apply the logic for themselves as to what makes sense.

      Cheers.

      • Russ

        February 8, 2012 at 2:34 pm

        I understand the argument, and it makes sense, except in my league, where if I were to drop my kicker right now, I would play week 1 without a kicker.

        Yeah 1 I drafted and carried 2 kickers and 2 defenses, until I realized I was one of a few doing that. Hard lesson learned, especially in a year one.

        Lastly, I was being somewhat sarcastic, and in doing so pointing out that A. some leagues it’s not worthwhile to drop your kicker right now due to rules, and B. while I think Kickers are indeed a dime a dozen, why not get the kicker from your favorite team? At least you can pull for your kicker!

    • ester michalek

      February 8, 2012 at 4:52 am

      Did you just wasted 5 minutes of my life asking about a kicker? Oh wait, you are a Bears fan. Enough said.

      • Russ

        February 8, 2012 at 2:29 pm

        It took you 5 minutes to read less than 140 words? Enough said.

  6. Dave

    February 8, 2012 at 5:17 am

    You say it’s a bad time to trade for a rb but I’m trying to trade roddy and Crabtree for mjd and Ingram. Think it’s a bad idea?

    • Sensai_John_Kreese

      February 10, 2012 at 4:59 am

      no, that would be a good idea, if you could pull it off

  7. Paul

    February 8, 2012 at 7:36 am

    MJD has almost 1800 career touches on him. RB’s usually last 2000-2200 before falling off the cliff. I’d try to deal Michelle Lobsterbush for Ingram straight and if you have to throw someone in go for it. Jacksonville is also likely to realize they need an MJD backup and draft someone to ease the decline slightly.

  8. The1rat

    February 9, 2012 at 4:48 pm

    How about this for a trade offer?

    He gives:
    Frank gore
    Jason Witten

    For my:
    Gronk
    1.3

    He comes back with

    Frank Gore
    Santana Moss
    Jason Witten

    For my:

    Gronk
    JJ Watt

    I mean, cmon, be real, you want to give me declining players for my players ascending into their prime. i sent the jerk a message to that effect, haven’t heard back yet. but sheesh, just he just assaulted my intelligence.

    • gratefulydead3

      February 13, 2012 at 12:07 am

      he added 1 player to each side. before you sound off on the guy, step back and think…

      • gratefulydead3

        February 13, 2012 at 12:08 am

        sorry misread and missed the 1.3 in the original offer

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

To Top