I love statistics, I always have.
In statistics, you can find whatever it is you are looking for, good, bad or indifferent. Those that don’t like the use of statistics will argue that you can make them look however you like toward proving a subjective point. In most cases I have found that to be the case as well. But in the hands of someone seeking objective information or trends, the use of statistics can deliver powerful results. Firstly, however, you must approach the analysis of your gathered data without bias as to what you expect to result. One of my favorite tenets is one that I came up with many years ago: There can be no objective thought within a subjective mind. Before all exercises like this, I keep that tenet close.
If you have followed me for any length of time, you have likely come to expect a series of “Inside the Numbers” articles where I break down the previous decade of NFL and fantasy drafting with the hope of uncovering trends that we can all use to make us better drafters. We’ve found key trends in wide receiver drafting, quarterback success and the likelihood of success or failure of a particular pick depending on drafted position. And, yes, I also practice what I preach when the statistics talk to me.
It has been shown that a wide receiver drafted within the first five picks of the NFL draft will go on to be a fantasy stud 80% of the time (given my most recent receiver analysis). In 2011, when A.J. Green was selected fourth overall, I eventually traded my own 1.05 and my 2012 first round selection for the 1.01 pick – ultimately A.J Green. It’s clear that Green pastures are in store. Without the use of my statistics, I never would have made that trade for a wide receiver.
For my first ItN piece of 2012, I’m taking a different angle and one that I hope you will like. I’m using one of my primary dynasty leagues as a live exercise of statistical analysis relating to first and second round draft trends with the hope of determining how live drafts in the past have panned out and what, if anything, can be gleaned from them. This is a longer running league and I have selected years 2004-2010 as my test bed to keep the data small enough, but also representative enough to provide enough variability. Why not 2011? Even 2010 is a bit soon to begin labeling players and 2011 is just too recent to apply labels. While mock drafts can be interesting when it comes to statistical analysis, there’s no substitute for a series of live drafts, with live coaches that have made the picks with the expectation that the drafted players will pay dividends in the years that follow.
This league is comprised of fantasy knowledgeable coaches, ten teams, NON-PPR w/IDP. This is important because the non-PPR format immediately shifts the focus to one favoring running backs rather heavily. You’ll see that this most definitely shows up in the numbers. That said, however, as we’re looking at bust rates of positions stemming from NFL performance, the addition of PPR likely wouldn’t skew the numbers tremendously. The addition of IDP does throw a wrinkle into the analysis but I’ve left them in as they only skew the second round statistics slightly. No IDP players have ever been taken in the first round of any previous draft.
So, each round consists of ten picks, over seven years. 70 first round picks and 70 second round picks as my statistical foundation.
Secondly, I have created three tiers of players for this study, not my typical four. These tiers are “Stud”, “Productive” and “Bust”. These three tiers make for relatively easy categorization. There may be some subjectivity in assigning players to one of the categories but in a vast majority of the cases, the players are easily defined. You’ll have to trust me on this. Additionally, I’m only looking at the numbers and percentages here, not discussing or displaying the players or specifics behind each selection.
Below is a breakdown of our first round selections over the established period of time:
| 1st Rd | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Total | % |
| Stud | 20% | 0% | 10% | 20% | 50% | 30% | 0% | 13 | 18.6% |
| Prod. | 40% | 40% | 40% | 10% | 30% | 40% | 60% | 26 | 37.1% |
| Bust | 40% | 60% | 50% | 70% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 31 | 44.3% |
| 1st Rd | QB | RB | WR | TE |
| Stud | 2 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| Prod. | 6 | 15 | 4 | 1 |
| Bust | 5 | 17 | 9 | 0 |
This gives you some indication of the productivity, in fantasy terms, of the rookies drafted during this period of time. The far right column summarizes the total percentage for the given categories on the left over this period of time. The chance of getting a “stud” player is roughly 18.6%. Stud players include such names as Larry Fitzgerald, Steven Jackson, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, Matt Forte’, Ray Rice and others. Productive players include such names as: Kellen Winslow, Eli Manning, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson, Reggie Bush, Jay Cutler, Marshawn Lynch and others. As noted, productive players could be had 37.1% of the time. And, lastly, busts (too numerous to name) occurred at a rate of 44.3% – not trivial.
In the next table, I break down the totals by position so you can get an accurate representation of how the positions are stratified compared to their listed category. As you can see, running backs were drafted 39 times of the 70 total picks, or 55.7%. and of the running backs drafted, 43.6% (17) were busts. As expected, wide receivers were only drafted with 16 of 70 selections for a total of 22.9% and busted at a 56.3%. Note that PPR or not, this rate will still be the same. Quarterbacks bust at a rate of 38.5% and consist of such names as Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Jamarcus Russell and Brady Quinn. Arguably, you could deduce that a first round TE in fantasy is usually a good bet but only two were selected during our sample period.
Looking at the first table again, years 2005 and 2007 were particularly notable (not in a good way) in fantasy. 2007, specifically, was the only year in which our league saw seven busts, picks 1.04 – 1.10 as it were.
Without regard to actual selection, you can get an idea of the “hit” rate of a first round pick in fantasy. Given only an 18.6% historical rate of drafting a would-be fantasy stud in the first round, you can make a clear case that if you are able to trade the pick for a near stud or productive player with upside, it may make sense. But wait, it gets better – especially for those of you holding very high picks.
Consider the following table further breaking down the first round in years 2004 – 2010:
| Pick | Stud | Prod. | Bust | QB | RB | WR | TE | Bust % |
| 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14.30% |
| 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 28.60% |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 57.10% |
| 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 57.10% |
| 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 42.90% |
| 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 71.40% |
| 8 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 57.10% |
| 9 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 71.40% |
| 10 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 42.90% |
If you haven’t noticed yet, take a look at picks 1 and 2 with regard to Stud, Productive and Bust categorized players. That’s right, in seven years of draft history over this period, only a single “stud” resulted (Adrian Peterson). And of those 14 picks, 11 were running backs, one was a quarterback, one was a wide receiver and one was a tight end. The tight end and quarterback were Kellen Winslow (1.01, 2004) and Eli Manning (1.02, 2004) and the wide receiver was Michael Crabtree (1.02, 2009). As one would expect, the bust rate of the first pick is only 14.3% and the second pick is only 26.6%, higher but relatively low when compared to the picks that follow.
Perhaps even more interesting is the stratification of the 1.03 selection with a 0% bust rate and three studs drafted. In a conversation about this table today with a fellow DLF’er, he pointedly asked “Are you saying that the 1.03 is more valuable than the 1.01?”. The quick answer to that is obviously, no. 1.01 will always be more valuable than 1.02 which will always be more valuable than 1.03, etc. etc. The pick itself, before being utilized carries greater value due to the ability to make the choice given available players or the ability to trade the pick to another coach wanting to make the choice. The true result of the pick cannot be realized until AFTER is it made. But when looking at this sample data, you can make an argument that the 1.03 may yield better fantasy results. Without getting into a lot more data and explanation, I believe I can make a case for this that makes some sense.
Typically, teams picking highly in the NFL draft are less competitive teams needing many pieces in order to be competitive. Quarterbacks taken early often struggle early in their careers without weapons around them to propel them into a higher category. But, clearly, our draft has been characterized by running backs not living up to expectations at the very top of our drafts. Save Adrian Peterson, no studs have emerged over that time. That’s not to say that there isn’t quality or productive players, just not “studs”. At 1.03, we start seeing the third running back off the board or the first wide receiver. The third running back is often going in the bottom third of the first round, teams that are far more competitive and with a better foundation for productivity in place. The top backs drafted in fantasy are in better starting situations but it is beginning to appear that greater talent may not be enough to overcome lesser drafted situation. At the wide receiver position, our 1.03 is where the first receivers often start coming off the board. My past articles have shown that the first non-running back player within his position has the best percentage possibility of reaching the higher categories. If that happens to be a top receiver in the first five picks of the NFL draft, that selection has resulted in a stud 80% of the time in the past decade. This does shed some light on the 1.03 mystery.
Less interesting is the drop-off after pick 1.03. In fact, 1.04 has produced no studs as coaches return to the running back position primarily in hopes of getting lucky. It hasn’t happened, leading to a 57.1% bust rate at the pick. Beyond that, it’s up in the air as quarterbacks finally begin coming off the board along with a relatively even distribution of running backs to wide receivers. Not surprisingly, the bust percentage fluctuates materially, most likely due to the depth and skill of the year’s draft class.
How to use this information?
That’s up to you. Most fantasy football players are of a gambler’s mindset. We like to spin the wheel and take our chances. It’s clear to me that the picks to have are certainly 1.01, 1.02 and 1.03. The 1.03 stratification was a real surprise that caused me to start looking deeper into whether it was an anomaly or whether there was a correlation with something tangible. I have concluded, thus far at least, that there is enough data to support the fact that 1.03 is indeed a more productive pick due to the worst-to-first NFL draft format as it relates to late-first-round running backs specifically.
You can play your first round pick in hopes of landing that stud player but the odds above clearly show that it is somewhat of a fool’s errand. But isn’t part of the fun spinning the wheel?. The better strategy is to trade the pick for a known young player already productive with upside, especially if you are in one of those first two slots. Tough to do, but what you receive could very well exceed what you will ultimately draft with the pick itself. There’s also the possibility that you could land a young stud for the pick from another coach wanting to spin the wheel.
With bust rates exceeding 70% in some cases, the path to higher ground is a trade out altogether.
Before ending this already too long piece, let me throw in one last table for you. This is the stratification of the second round of our drafts over that same period of time, 2004-2010.
| 2nd Rd | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | Total | % |
| Stud | 10% | 30% | 10% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 6 | 8.6% |
| Prod. | 20% | 10% | 20% | 30% | 40% | 30% | 40% | 19 | 27.1% |
| Bust | 70% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 60% | 70% | 60% | 45 | 64.3% |
| 2nd Rd | QB | RB | WR | TE | Other |
| Stud | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Prod. | 2 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Bust | 9 | 17 | 13 | 1 | 5 |
Bust rates for players in the second round are 64.3% during this period. You have less than a 10% chance of getting a stud from any point in the second round. I didn’t further break down the positions or picks here in an attempt to find order from this round because it became very clear, very quickly, that the entire round is a crap-shoot and the studs, productive and bust players are relatively evenly distributed throughout the round, both by pick number and position. The most noteworthy stat is that you are playing against the house if you wish to make this pick rather than trade for a productive player or a player with upside.
In most situations here, you are advised to trade a second round selection if you can receive known value in return.
Feel free to leave comments, your own thoughts or analysis of your own drafts if you are so inclined. And if you are with an NFL team looking for a lead statistician, I’m your guy. I’ll even double as a scout!
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interesting. i’ve always been one to trade out of the first round. However, my team got old and the last 2 years i’ve had 4 first round picks. (albeit late).
Montario Hardesty
Demaryus Thomas
Arrelious Benn
Ryan Williams
They all suffered major injuries. At least Thomas seems to be coming on.
I don’t have a first this upcoming draft because i traded it for my future franchise QB (sam bradford….ouch) i have no luck with 1st rd picks whether i keep them or trade em!
Well done Jeff – It would be interesting to see where the top 10 players at each position over the last 6 years have been drafted in the NFL draft and then conversly in our draft. These wouldn’t necessarily be “studs”, because I’m sure a great deal of QB studs were drafted before 2004 (ie Brady, Peyton) … but rather just top ten of the players in that pool and NFL / Fantasy draft positions. Something to think about for a future article perhaps.
Again, nice job.
Thanks Dave. I had actually done something like that a couple years back and may be doing it again this year if time permits. I typically will do an article or two on the past decade of NFL drafts and break down the likelihood that a first or second round pick will be a success based on his drafted position. But I’ve also swing that around and done a listing of top players in fantasy with a break down of where they came from … and the consistent factors that can be used to identify the ones from the current draft pool.
Thanks for the comment.
“There can be no objective thought within a subjective mind”– I love it! I always say “you can’t use logic and reason to sway someone from an opinion they attained without the use of logic and reason” but yours is so much better.
Thanks Michael. It’s one that I’ve used from way back in the late 80s and early 90s when doing stock investing/trading research. I’ve always been a big proponent of “objectivity” and I needed something of a mantra to keep myself centered when I found myself wanting to jump to a conclusion before I had all the details.
I have a ton of little sayings that I’ve been meaning to write down but I’m hoping someday perhaps that one will be quoted on the inside of a book or something like that with my name attached to it.
Hope you enjoyed the article, thanks for the comment.
Do you think trent richardson will be the next AP?
No. I’m not as high on Richardson as I was in the beginning of the season. And the more I watched him the less I liked what I saw. But that said, I’m going back to watch a lot of tape with an objective mindset and doing my grading from top down on my list. I’ll be updating the list soon.
He’ll still be me my #1 RB for sure, I can tell you that much but I don’t consider him an “elite” prospect as some of the main talking heads do. But that could change.
The only issue that I see is the potential of seeing increasingly inaccurate results round by round as you will get a lot more variation in round 2 than round 1…round 3 than round 2 and so on.
In 2010 in my main league we had Mike Williams (TB), Jimmy Graham, and Rob Gronkowski all selected in the 2nd rd. Clearly two of them can be considered “studs” and one certainly looked like he had that potential.
I don’t think that devalues the analysis, but rather I think demonstrates the volatility that could occur. Overall, I think we all accept the diminishing returns of every pick and outside of the first few picks the risks can quickly outweigh the rewards.
I very much agree and often times the depth of the rookie class will allow for picks just like that to occur. It’s why we all like to spin the wheel.
Another conclusion one could draw from this analysis would be that it is a mistake to trade multiple late firsts for a pick in the 1.04-1.06 range. You’re better off taking two swings at the bat with the 1.11 and 1.12 than taking the best of the rest with a single 1.04-1.06 pick. That’s not something I would have expected. Of course, it might matter if you are in a salary cap league where carry two players has it’s own inherent cost.
Very true. I doubt this analysis will really change anyone’s mind greatly about how to approach the draft, but I honestly believe that it should tweak things. In fact, I dismissed a possible trade today because of it and the fact that I need to hold true to what the data has told me year over year.
Good points on all fronts. I’d definitely trade a low first rounder for two close picks.
a little caveat to back that up…. this past season I traded the 1.03 pick (who ended up being Mark Ingram after AJ Green and Julio Jones) for 1.11 and 1.12 picks. I drafted Jimmy Graham and Fred Jackson, who despite the injury helped my team to the playoffs and and eventually to the Super Bowl.
With that being said, we roster only 17 and carry 25 during the season, so Fred Jackson didn’t make post season cuts or Jimmy Graham.
Jimmy Graham didnt make your roster?
Did you mean Ernest Graham?
*scratches head*
You said that 80% of wrs drafted in the top 5 end up being studs. Many have projected that Justin Blackmon will go second overall to the rams. Do you think he’ll become a stud and is he worth drafting if you have the 1.01 spot?
If you need a WR and are in a PPR system then absolutely. Although Richardson is tough to pass up. But it’s about the needs on YOUR team and if Blackmon does become a stud, he’ll be one for a long time.
I stand by the stats as they are correct. The only top 5 WR that hasn’t become a stud was Charles Rogers … and he was a stud for a game because I had him damn it. He played the Cardinals in his first game and scored 2 TDs. As I recall … that made up about 25% of his total career TDs.
I may have missed it in the column, but there is no mention of the differences that exist between an early rookie draft (mine is usually done in May or June) versus one done shortly before the start of the season. Certainty with draft choices increases over those couple of months and can absolutely mean the difference between a hit or a miss, steal or a bust.
Sure could. Our draft usually starts the day of the draft .. and doesn’t last more than a few days. The longer you can wait, the more information that you have to make your picks. I favor an early rookie draft myself though.
Great read. I’m curious about your analysis of the third pick looking so strong. Seems to me you are making a statement that contradicts the mantra “always draft talent over situation”. Would love to see your thoughts on that one, as i have come to question that idea. If you have a talented guy in a great situation i will take him over a great talent in a bad situation. That great talent may rise to the top eventually (Stewart for example, maybe), but you will have about 100 opportunities to grab him between now and then. Same can’t be said for a good talent who jumps immeadiately because of a great situation (like Forte).
First, not so much that I’m making a statement to that as much as it is me looking for the “what is” of what the data is telling me. Secondly, in my past I’ve usually gone with the greater situation over talent and have been burned enough to now think twice before doing so each time. Steven Jackson and LeSean McCoy are two that stick out.
I also haven’t analyzed multiple league drafts over long periods of time to see if htis data holds true for them as well. But I might be going there nexxxt.
In the end, I would never recommend passing on someone like Riichardson to take someone like Chris Polk because of this data. It’s more just something to think about when looking to trade into or out of picks as to what can be garnered from them.
OK, since there are 0 studs at the 1.4 (which I have), what would you do to improve this team?
Dynasty, PPR (.5), 12 team league, 1 qb 1-2 rb 3-4 wr 1 te, 1 flex (rb, wr, te), 1 k & 1 def
QB: Tom Brady NE, Big Ben PIT, Kyle Orton DEN, Colin Kaepernick SF
RB: Darren McFadden OAK, Ahmad Bradshaw NYG, BJGE NE, Brandon Jacobs NYG, C.J. Spiller BUF, Bernard Scott CIN, Montario Hardesty CLE, Evan Royster WAS
WR: Andre Johnson HOU, Calvin Johnson DET, Larry Fitzgerald ARI, Roddy White ATL, Steve Smith CAR, Santana Moss WAS, Danny Amendola STL, Johnny Knox CHI, Kyle Williams SF
TE: Jimmy Graham NO
K: Stephen Gostkowski NEP
DEF: Chargers
You have Megatron, Fitz, Andre Johnson and Steve Smith..and Graham..and Brady, Big Ben and McFadden? Do you play with 9 other 6 yr olds?
Whatever..you need a rb or young good qb more than WR.
If its a rookie draft and it goes Luck, Trent, RG3, then you can always take Blackmon and consider trading him…otherwise, you can be happy with one of the other 3 choices.
wow….start brady, mcfadd-bradshaw, andre-calvin-roddy, jimmy, fitz at flex, gostkowski, sandy D…..get a couple of rookies for then fun of it….and start looking for a place to put the trophy. ps maybe make a couple of trades just because you can!!!!!!!
I have a 1.04 as well. Remember that this is just one draft and no studs at 1.04 in the past doesn’t mean none in the future.
With your team, you don’t need studs … you need productive players and you could use a young QB like Luck or Griffin. This should be a deep enough draft for you to put that 1.04 to use. And if you don’t want to take use that pick .. trade out for a known player.
Do you have any data on college rbs over last ten yrs that had 3 seasons of 1000+ yards ? Curious what their success rate in NFL becomes. Own 1.4 & 1.5 picks in 2012 rookie draft. Chris Polk and Lamar Miller are my likely picks.
Funny that you mention that. I’m redoing my grading system for rookies and one of the things that I’m trying to take into consideration with a certain weighting is number of years of college production vs. number of carries/receptions vs. the conference/competition that they’ve played against. I don’t think I’m going to get it done for this particular draft but I’m trying to.
Far too soon to say “likely picks” because so much can change and draft picks are always more valuable before the draft than after. If Lamar Miller goes to New England or Washingon … or New Orleans, his value will slide. If Polk goes to Dallas or Green Bay … same thing in all likelihood.
wow stunning article. there is so much in there i have a headache trying to take it all in. i will definitly consider the info though because it does make sence. i’m more of a “gut feeling guy” when it comes to drafting. i did get stung with ryan williams this last year and just missed getting murray in the second.
I’d like more league data to analyze and will be asking for league history in our forums.
Nothing wrong with the gut feeling aspect as I’m sure there is some level of logic that goes into your gut feelings … as in situation, character, skill level, etc. I try to get fantasy coaches to use their gut feelings more because I truly believe that our gut feelings are largely unprocessed and objective feelings before our consciousness gets hold of them to the point where we can twist them with “logic”.
Great article and your wide receiver research got me thinking about RB’s taken in the first round of the NFL draft, and their fantasy production.
Since 2000, only six RBs were taken as high as the 5th overall pick in the NFL draft. They were Jamal Lewis, LaDainian Tomlinson, Ronnie Brown & Cadillac Williams, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden. While some of their career numbers may have been disappointing due to injury or situation, none could be considered a total bust.
Within the top 10 also included Thomas Jones (late bloomer), Adrian Peterson (six teams passed on ADP!!!) and CJ Spiller (jury is out).
First round backs who were not top 10 but became studs (or had at least one stud season) include Shaun Alexander, Deuce McAllister, Willis McGahee, Larry Johnson, Steven Jackson, DeAngelo Williams, Joseph Addai, Marshawn Lynch, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall,Chris Johnson and Ryan Matthews.
Jury is still out: Felix Jones, Beanie Wells, Jahvid Best and Mark Ingram (all taken after the 20th pick).
Busts (or major disappointments): Ron Dayne (though his Week 16 performance as a Texan won me a title back in the day), Trung Candidate, William Green (ugh), TJ Duckett, Chris Perry, Kevin Jones (so promising), Ms. Laurence Maroney, Knowshawn Moreno and Donald Brown (possssibly a late bloomer ala Thomas Jones?).
Out of 34 RBs taken in the NFL Draft since 2000, 26% were busts…20% became uber studs…58% had a top 10 finish one year or more…and the jury is out on 14%.
Not including Mark Ingram/CJ Spiller (too early), the only RBs taken #1 in the draft who were busts are William Green and Knowshawn Moreno. Disappointments include Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush and Darren McFadden (depending on who you ask). Great include McGahee and Jackson (taken after the 20th pick)…and future HOFers include Jamal Lewis, Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson.
While we can all debate true value, it appears that if you take the 1st RB off the NFL Draft board (at any spot), 77% will go on to be at least a RB2 or better. If they were drafted in the top 10, that success rate goes up even higher (though non-stud debate increases as well…Ronnie Brown, Reggie Bush).
So, if Trent Richardson is the first RB chosen in the 2012 draft as expected, barring injury he should be a solid addition to any roster…even if he falls short of the lofty expectations and comparisons to past top RBs.
Interesting research/anbalysis…thanks.
How many years (or should it be carries?) for your analysis to prove someone is a stud/respectable roster addition/bust..etc?
For example..Knowshon Moreno and Beanie Wells..have been injured, running back by committee..etc..
Sometimes its so tough to call unless they are the bell cow!
Great article, had to read it a couple times to make sure I had a good grasp on all that info! OK, so here’s my league data:
12 teams, 30 man roster, 15 keepers/year (8 off, 5 def, 2 off/def). Start 1QB, 3 RB/WR, 1 WR/TE, 1 TE, 2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 1 D/ST, 1 K.
My tentative Keeper List: QB Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, RB McFadden and Chris Johnson, WR Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Dwayne Bowe, Denarius Moore, Michael Crabtree, TE Brandon Pettigrew, DL Justin Tuck and Justin Smith, LB Lawrence Timmons, Patrick Willis, and Pat Angerer
Our rookie draft is 4 rounds deep, in April. Rosters are then filled out with a free agent auction a week before the season. In this year’s rookie draft I have picks 1.01, 1.09, 2.01, 2.05, 3.01, 4.01. Is there enough depth in the rookie draft to justify using all of my rookie picks to add some young talent/upside? Should I try trading out of a couple of those picks for other players, or maybe even trade them for picks in the 2013 rookie draft? If trading picks is my best bet, which ones should I try to sell the most? As always, any and all info/advice is much appreciated!