Regular Season – Week 2 Blog (Update: 9/17)
Each week of the regular season, on Monday or Tuesday, I’ll be posting a weekly blog that I’ll be using to keep you abreast of the news and notes that you need to be aware of for the upcoming slate of games.   The blog style makes for quick and easy edits which gets information into your hands much more quickly than I could otherwise. Of course, we’ll still be writing our normal articles and highlight pieces for the events that require more focus or deeper analysis.
As part of these regular blogs, please feel free to shoot me questions, comments, lineup advice or anything else that is on your mind. Â Let’s get started!
Sept. 17 11:30 AM
Sat. AM and a lot of things up in the air for week 2.
To kick things off, lets take a look at the top 10 targets in the receiving game after week 1:
1. Antonio Gates – 13
2. Brandon Marshall – 13
3. Roddy White – 13
4. DeSean Jackson – 12
5. Wes Welker – 12
6. Andre Johnson – 11
7. Brandon Lloyd – 11
8. Hakeem Nicks – 11
9. Steve Smith – 11
10. Mike Thomas – 11
The usual suspects for the most part. Mike Thomas at #10 is a surprise and it does go to show how they are treating him as the WR1 in their offense.  Only had 55 yards but the 8 receptions makes him great in PPR leagues.
Seems like a lot of the big stars are a bit dinged up this week with Megatron, Nicks, Bryant and Austin all gimpy and somewhat questionable. At this time, I’m only really concerned about Bryant. As he plays in the second set of games, ensure that you don’t handcuff yourself by not having anyone else to play if you decide to wait until just before kickoff to see if he’s starting. As I write this, it appears that Nicks wasn’t doing much in practice today making him possibly a game day decision as well for his Monday night tilt vs. St. Louis. Again, if you have a better option, you may want to take it or at least have another Monday night receiver that you can option to.
On the running back front, Steven Jackson appears to be out and Carnell Williams should get a lot of quality touches. He’s also accomplished out of the backfield in the passing game which makes for a nice PPR alternative. I’d start Williams without hesitation this week. In our Expert’s league, we’re starting him with confidence. Arian Foster looks to be a go for the afternoon game vs. Miami. I’d play it safe myself and would likely use any other non-Houston back if I have the option to. I don’t trust Kubiak or Foster’s hamstring at this point. Tate will likely get at least 50% of the snaps, at least that is what my better logic tells me. Moreno is likely out in Denver, that may be a blessing for you.
I’m sitting the Carolina backs this week. Up against GB, this game could be over quickly and it’s possible that no Carolina back gets more than ten touches. The only startable back is Williams and he could be good in PPR formats, but I’m electing to start Starks instead.
Talking about Starks, it would seem that his career has officially started. Said to be better in blitz pick-up and QB protection schemes, Starks is going to get a lot of snaps this week. Green Bay plays a lot of spread offense and Starks will be the benefactor. He really looks young, fresh and runs a lot like Adrian Peterson. His injury history still scares me, but the more healthy games he can string together, the more he can be counted on in fantasy. I’d start him as a very solid RB2 this week with confidence.
It’s obvious that Lynch in Seattle is no longer starter capable. Not because of talent but because of O-line play. But speaking of his talent, it isn’t dynamic enough to overcome the blocking issues present. I also continue to be critical of Spiller and Ryan Mathews is now enter that area of danger where he just may not pan out longer term.  That would be a real blow to many fantasy teams and another crimson letter on high profile rookies in the NFL draft.
Looking at a couple of match-ups:
The Raiders and the Bills has all the makings of some nice fantasy production. DMc, Stevie Johnson and even Fred Jackson could all be in line for good days. Ryan Fitzpatrick continues to be under-valued and is a sneaky good start on Sunday.
Dwayne Bowe had better click-in at Detroit. The inconsistent Bowe should be getting his legs back by now and be productive on Sunday. Looks for a big dose of Jamaal Charles from the Chiefs. I think Charles will get 25 touches when it’s all over, mostly because the bloom is most certainly off of Matt Cassell. To us, the bloom was never on.
The Ravens visit Tennessee making for a tough match-up for Chris Johnson to get his groove back on. I don’t see 100 yards in his future but it only takes one touch to get most of that and anything is possible. Kenny Britt should be targeted often and I think he’s a sneaky good play this weekend. On the other side of the field, Flacco and Ray Rice should both have great days. I’m starting Flacco over Ryan this week which could cause some lost sleep on Sunday night.
The Colts … host the Browns. Ugh … the Colts.
What to do with LeGarrette Blount? 5 carries for 15 yards ain’ta gunna gettit dun, at least not for fantasy owners that had picked late in their fantasy drafts and ultimately ended up with Blount as their RB1. It’s obvious that Blount is not yet fully trusted and needs help with his blocking. For an offense that lacks explosiveness, Blount will not be a great option if the Bucs find themselves playing from behind.  Playing in Minnesota, could be another tough Sunday for Blount. For the Vikings, you’ll be seeing a lot of Peterson and he’ll have his first big day of 2011. Harvin is your only other offensive starter and he’s no better than a WR2.
I mentioned the Seahawks earlier, related to Marshawn Lynch. They travel to Pittsburgh and will get their avian butts kicked. Mendenhall will get a ton of carries when the game is well out of reach by half-time. No one from the Hawks is startable this week … or any week for that matter.
Don’t look for another great game from Newton when he hosts the Packers. While Newton was impressive in his first NFL game, a dose of reality is likely on tap. I wonder if he’ll be as poised in the pocket by the second quarter. I guarantee Clay Matthews can’t wait for this game. Look for a lot of slant passes and quick outs early from Newton while the defensive schemes are analyzed. For the Packers … start all of the big names.
Two games I’m really wanting to see this week are the Chargers vs. Patriots and Eagles vs. Atlanta. I think the Patriots win big on Sunday and I’m curious how Brady follows up his incredible effort in week one. As expected, Welker is going is going to well outplay his drafted position in nearly every draft. DLF had this one called correctly.
Monday night’s tilt will be great, when Vick returns to Atlanta. I think the welcome will be a warm one but I wouldn’t put money on it. Either way, this is going to be a fun game to watch. That Philly secondary could make the going tough on Ryan and Vick should find plenty of opportunities against the Falcon’s questionable defense.
Enjoy the games and I might have a late update tonight as more news emerges so stay tuned.
Sept. 14
Before I give a quick update, I wanted to touch on the “science” that is predicting who to play each Sunday, whether it be for my own team or as a suggestion for you here. There really is very little science to picking your players. You don’t bench your studs, you at least take a look at the defensive match-ups to gauge the strength of the opposing passing and rushing defenses and of course you have to manage injuries. But perhaps most difficult is managing the decision in which multiple players are seemingly equally suited to production for the week. In the end you will often see me write “trust your gut” or ask, “what does your gut tell you?” The reason is simple. In the end, you have to be able to sleep at night and feel good about your choices. When it comes down to choices that give you a headache, I always recommend going with YOUR choice first. That is not to say that you don’t get other opinions, but when the time comes, it must be your call.
Every year with these articles I get eventually get flamed for making a bad call and costing someone a game. Truth be told, when I give advice, it is the same advice that I would use myself if it were my team. I don’t give out any advice that I wouldn’t use myself in the same situation. But even the most logical of player selections come game day can go very wrong. I don’t take a lot of chances, play many hunches or get too cute with my selections. In most cases, number of touches equates to a greater number of chances. Defensive match-ups are very important as well, but I learned long ago that you never bench your studs.
So, make sure before asking anyone else who you should start or sit that you at least first have an idea of who YOU would choose prior to hitting the forum or this blog. Â The tie always goes to your gut, everyone sleeps better that way.
Onto just a very quick update ….
Already time is flying as we close in on week two. Hopefully you have your waiver wire strategy set for the week or have already made your claims. In any event, there’s not much news floating out there as of yet.
Arian Foster appears to be a go in Houston and you’ll see a lot more Jacoby Jones with Kevin Walter sitting out the next week or two. Relating to Foster, he’s a dangerous start this week but a tough sit if he goes. I believe the Texans should hold him out at least one more week, or at least until half time of this upcoming game while they determine if they even need to rush him back.
Jerry Jones is applauding Romo? The dreaded words of support. In my mind, it’s official … Romo doesn’t have what it takes.
I expect Danny Amendola will miss 2-3 weeks with his elbow injury but he’s lobbying to play this week. Greg Salas will take over the slot role until Amendola is back.
Andy Dalton actually impressed me on Sunday. He looked relatively poised and displayed a nice zip on the ball. He likely won’t play this week, but should return in week 3.
Fred Davis is on the rise. If you are needy at TE, take a look to make sure he’s not available on the wire.
Knowshon Moreno was held out of practice with a nagging hamstring injury, yet again. It’s really becoming apparent that Moreno just won’t be a startable fantasy running back. Hope I’m wrong, but the stars just aren’t aligning.
Sidney Rice has been seen in Seattle and actually on the practice field. Could it actually help the Hawks? Not unless there’s 3 more just like him in that offense.
False alarm it appears for Nicks. That collective sigh you’re hearing was from one coach in every fantasy league worldwide.
Donald Brown is likely to just fade away. He actually has fallen to third on the depth chart and will likely be with a new team next year. He’ll get one more chance and his only chance is if it comes with a team that has a noteworthy run game. Problem is, he just hasn’t proven that he’s noteworthy himself.
Here’s a sneaky defensive players for you that many are missing: Thomas Davis, LB CAR. He’s back and is looking good. With Beason out and Connor taking over the MLB spot, Davis’ value actually goes up.
Will update more soon.
Sept. 13
Firstly, if you haven’t read Ken Kelly’s Week 1 Aftermath, you need to do that before reading any further.
This was the most interesting first week of a regular NFL season in recent memory. In past years, largely, the first couple of weeks usually find offenses around the league out of synch and struggling to find consistency when compared to opposing defenses. In 2011, this couldn’t be further from the truth. I don’t honestly understand how that can be possible other than to propose that the decreased off-season workload and camp work has led to fresher legs, livelier arms and generally more energetic game play overall. Whatever mysterious forces are at work, I think teams need to take a step back and perhaps reassess what is most important in the off-season in the way of regular season preparation. 2011 has provided an exercise and insight that was far from normal and it’s safe to say that far from normal results were seen, almost league wide. It bears further consideration.
Week one was chock full of moments of magic and moments of misery. In nearly every game, playmakers were to be found while many established veterans took a back seat. Depending on the stratification of your team(s), you were likely either giddy or frustrated as Monday night wound down.
First and foremost in response to your week 1 result, do not overreact in any way. Always be mindful that this is only the first week and nothing seen guarantees a similar performance in week 2. Take a deep breath and allow a pattern to form before making moves. The only real exceptions to this are if you were bitten by the injury bug in a way that does not allow for easy recovery, or because you are extremely deep in a position and a breakout performance (Randall Cobb, Scott Chandler, Cam Newton, etc.) gives you the opportunity to sell high. You be the judge as to whether or not you can capitalize in either case.
Just a few notes from this past weekend…
Brady and Newton absolutely blew up in week one. Not completely unexpected for Brady, but Newton!?!?!? Probably a sell high if you’re deep in the position as he’ll probably not do that again for many years … but you never know. I was absolutely stunned by his poise and his command of the pocket.
Dwayne Bowe is up to his inconsistent ways, I got bit as well with this as I chose Bowe over Britt this week. Not pleased.
C.J. Spiller got a TD but that shouldn’t excite you, Johnny White received more carries and don’t think that isn’t an indication of how Spiller is viewed.
Tony Romo may be a decent fantasy QB but you may recall that at the beginning of last year I had the audacity to say that I thought he may be on a two year leash. This will be the second year of that statement and it’s looking pretty obvious to all concerned that Romo won’t lead a team to the big show. It’s too bad too because he’s a great kid, humble and not without talent. Just doesn’t have that ‘fire’.
Just a couple of IDP names to consider for this next week. Dan Connor will be taking over at MLB for Carolina who lost Beason to a ruptured Achilles’ tendon. Terrell Suggs may still be available as well and while he is streaky, he can blow up in any game a put up a great score. Sean Lee in Dallas will be a hot pick up for week 2 but the Dallas 3-4 is not ideal for being an every week producer. He could easily put up 5 points next week. If you play in a S/CB IDP league, Chief’s safety Eric Berry has been lost for the year.
Darren McFadden is blowing up and if he can stay healthy, he could very well be a top five back next year.
We mentioned multiple times that veteran receiver Wes Welker was much too low in ADP.
Have any two RBs in the same system had more of a rise and a fall in a few months as have DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart? Pathetic and I don’t know that it’s really going to get much better. Now that Newton has displayed that he can throw the ball, opposing defenses will now need to respect that. Color me skeptical until I see it.
Reggie Bush is following our recipe to the ingredient – We said he’d look great through the first four weeks. But he’s still Reggie Bush. There may be no more difficult decision than to sell high on Bush after week four if he is still producing. All past events scream to do just that.
Some intriguing receivers that I’m following and expecting good things from going forward: Early Doucet, Mohamed Massaquoi, Randall Cobb and Eric Decker. All had some level of production and a couple of these names could be available on your wire.
I made a bold statement before the season that WR Mike Wallace will finish outside the top 12 in receivers. Many will feel that is not that bold of a statement, but based on how he was being drafted, I believe it most certainly is. I’m sticking by it!
At running back, I believe James Starks is going to be a starter this week. I’ll put my money where my mouth is on my own team when I start him over DeAngelo Williams. I don’t think it’s that much of a stretch to do so.
Geez, the Seahawks are going to be bad. Their offensive line is as horrific as I’ve seen. They remind me a bit of the early-years Texans. Sorry Marshawn Lynch owners. Many are off the Lynch bandwagon saying he can’t run. I believe that is not correct at all, he just can’t do it on his own. In the end, it doesn’t matter.
Deji Karim makes for a sneaky addition just in case. Even if that case doesn’t pan out, he’s still going to get touches.
Don’t pull ligament in your mouse hand racing to pick up the following few players: Scott Chandler (TE), Jeff King (TE), Doug Baldwin (WR), Brian Hartline (WR) or Marcell Reese (RB). That’s not to say they don’t have value, especially if you have a huge hole at TE, but don’t go overboard.
More to come as news breaks….
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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