Regular Season – Week 1 Blog (Update: 9/8)
Each week of the regular season, on Monday or Tuesday, I’ll be posting a weekly blog that I’ll be using to keep you abreast of the news and notes that you need to be aware of for the upcoming slate of games.   The blog style makes for quick and easy edits which gets information into your hands much more quickly than I could otherwise. Of course, we’ll still be writing our normal articles and highlight pieces for the events that require more focus or deeper analysis.
As part of these regular blogs, please feel free to shoot me questions, comments, lineup advice or anything else that is on your mind. Â Let’s get started!
Thursday, Sept. 8 – 9:00 PM
Game on! Literally.
Wow, couldn’t have asked for much more from the first game of the year. Both Rodgers and Brees go over 300 yards, no interceptions and solid game play on both sides of the ball. Hats off to both teams for a solid, largely mistake-free game. A few notes from the game:
Running back James Starks appears to be the favored runner and looked strong, with good vision and the ability to move the pile. Starks had a great looking TD run where he displayed his burst, vision and balance. Shockingly though, Green Bay is still not feeding him the ball in the passing game. Starks has great hands in that regard. Ryan Grant looked good as well but it seems that Starks is going to be the hot hand for now. We’ll know more next week with a more ‘normal’ game.
Greg Jennings still looks dominant out there and Rodgers looks for him constantly. Finley, too, made some tough catches in traffic.
Jordy Nelson is obviously the WR3 and James Jones is wondering why he resigned in Green Bay, unless he’s looking for another ring rather than more snaps.
And what about Randall Cobb? A few weeks ago Ken Kelly and I were talking about the rookie class and we both highlighted Randall Cobb as a player that we thought just had “it”. He most certainly does. I’m anxious to see him mature. I just worry a bit that it will be much like the Saint’s receiver group in that there may not be enough balls to go around.
On the Saint’s side of the ball, Devery Henderson will again be a hot pickup and will likely disappear over the next few weeks, it’s his standard early season tease. Pierre Thomas and rookie Ingram look destined for a split in carries, at least until Thomas goes down to his seasonal injury. Ingram looked pedestrian and stiff and the Saints made a huge mistake not getting Thomas in the game for that last play.
Jimmy Graham looks to be as billed. I loved Graham as a rookie and fully expected this production at some point. He’s athletic and can make the tough catch.
Looking forward to Sunday!
Wednesday, Sept. 7 – 9:15 PM
Peyton, Eli and a preacher walk into a bar….
Ok, it’s no joke, Peyton’s year is obviously in serious jeopardy. Even though all reports about Peyton’s third surgery appear to be premature, there’s no denying the fact that things are more significant than what we’re being told. And put me in the camp that it’s quite likely that Manning will miss a large portion of season. I wouldn’t expect that they would IR Manning at this point, choosing to bring him back, if capable, for a late season run or the playoffs. It’s a huge blow to Manning owners, either way. Downgrade all offensive receivers and perhaps slightly upgrade the Colts running game.
Positive news out of Philly in that Jeremy Maclin appears to be a full go. No chance in my mind that he plays all offensive snaps, but he should receive enough to be a decent WR2. If you have better choices, you may want to consider them but if not, don’t sweat playing Maclin.
Nothing new out of Ttitan camp in that Chris Johnson, too, is a full go and should get a full game of carries. Second on the depth chart, Javon Ringer, has yet to practice this week and will likely not be playing this weekend, leaving rookie Jamie Harper to receive 5-10 touches. Expect a heavy dose of Johnson.
Seattle is surprisingly not interested in Garrard. They’re going to be terrible, no two ways about it. I’m even beginning to wonder if they aren’t already planning on a high draft pick to land either Stanford’s Andrew Luck or USC’s Matt Barkley. Whitehurst will be starting by week four. Lynch is back in practice now and Rice could miss week one. You must have better options than either.
Michael Crabtree continues to make progress with his foot but likely won’t be available for the first week. In fact, I’d peg week 3 as Crabtree’s official return. Note that I don’t think you can immediately plug him into your lineup when he does return, but at least he’ll be back on the field.
Dwayne Bowe has had a good preseason and word out of the KC central is that he has been working hard in all phases. It looks like he’s serious about posting good numbers again in 2011. I have downgraded Bowe from last year’s numbers solely on the fact that there is no Moeaki at TE and they have no significant threat starting opposite Bowe. He’ll get a ton of targets and perhaps even receptions, but I expect consistent double coverage and less than double digit TDs.
A receiver that I am watching this year is Mohamed Massaquoi in Cleveland. I love his size and play making ability and I’ve always thought it strange that he hasn’t produced. It’s not as if Cleveland has had a noteworthy quarterback in some time and while McCoy is anything but elite, I’ve been impressed thus far. Massaquoi is heading into his third year and is clearly the WR1 in that offense. As primarily a deep threat receiver, I think there are possibilities that many others aren’t seeing.
Update your lineups, New Orlean’s Lance Moore is out this week.
In Houston, who do you start at RB this week. I expect Foster to give it a go in week one and you most likely have to get him in your lineup. But as I’ve said before, if he wasn’t able to recover from the hamstring in three weeks, I don’t see him risking it after ten days.  If he does start, I think there’s a strong likelihood that he plays less than a quarter. I also wouldn’t start Ward or Tate either on the hopes that they can get a score, just too much of a guessing game.
You know which unheralded rookie I have a good feeling about? Tandon Doss in Baltimore. There’s just something about this kid.
Tuesday, Sept. 6 – 8:45 PM
Another player goes down. Today we get the news that the Giants woes continue with another big loss on the defensive side of the ball, this time in middle linebacker, Jonathan Goff (ACL). Goff was no great shakes in fantasy but going into his second year in the middle for the Giants, I was intrigued by his potential. As it stands, the Giants are fully expected to sign a veteran to compete with rookie inside backer Greg Jones but Jones will likely have a week or two to impress the coaching staff. It’s been rumored that veteran Kawika Mitchell will be targeted.
Bigger news and a bigger shock overall was the report that Jacksonville has sent veteran QB David Garrard packing, leaving Luke McCown as the starter. It will be Gabbert’s show by the end of the year, this much is obvious. For the veteran Garrard, he’ll likely end up in Seattle, San Francisco or my dark-horse destination, Miami. For the 33 year old, regardless of his ultimate landing spot, he’ll likely only be a stop gap solution.
In Philly, it seems that Casey Matthews is still your starting MLB. I don’t get it as Jamar Chaney seems to be a natural fit at the position. I’ll give two weeks before a switch is made. Until then, if you are rostering one, you are rostering both, at least for a short time. You don’t want to take up two roster spots for a single IDP.
C.J. Spiller fans, last chance to move him before he ends up being the next Donald Brown. Speaking of Brown, word is that he is now the RB3 in Indi. I expect a very fluid situation for the Colts backfield and I don’t trust any of them. Carter isn’t an every down back but could have value in the short yardage and goal line game. The Colts just don’t produce out of the offensive backfield and Addai is a shaky RB2 at best, more than likely a solid RB3. As for Brown, what a disappointment. I loved the kid coming out of UCONN and I thought he had the perfect build, agility and work ethic to be an immediate success. The pairing with Indianapolis couldn’t have been better for immediate impact. Not.to.be. He’ll get another chance at some point, most likely not in Indi, so keep him rostered for now.
For all of you Chris Johnson owners, start him comfortably this week. There have been no touch limits installed and CJ has been working out. He hasn’t taken many hits obviously but he won’t have camp legs which could be promising for his first game. He’s a true RB1 out of the gate.
There are a lot of story lines with this weeks games and it’s going to be a great Sunday. I won’t be able to hold a chat this week but I’m planning on multiple game day chats throughout the season.
Keep your browsers pointed at your favorite news outlets and be ready to pounce on any last minute moves, signings or injuries.
Monday, Sept. 5 – 9:00 AM
It’s finally here, week 1!
The big news this week is that it appears as though the Colts will be without their offensive leader and perennial fantasy stud QB, Peyton Manning. The writing has been on the wall for a couple of weeks now but the most recent rumor is troubling. Neck issues can linger and end careers, especially in those that are older as Manning is. The most recent rumor is that Manning may miss the first 4-6 games. Kerry Collins will get the start. Most seem to be tripping over themselves to downgrade the offense but I’m not so sure about that. Collins obviously is no Manning but Wayne and Clark are still studs within their positions and you are starting them unless you have clear choices that are better. The running game in Indi is less than ideal and no better than a RB3 situation, if you have Addai. Watch the rumor about a needed second surgery, a report the Colts have denied.
What to do with Arian Foster? Factual information as to his status has been weak, but that is the way of hamstrings. In all likelihood, I expect that Foster will give it a go on Sunday, but I think the Texans would be best suited to sit him another week. If he wasn’t able to overcome the injury in three weeks, I don’t see him being able to over come it in less than two. Hamstrings are not something to play around with as tweaks can become much worse. But only the Texans know the status and he’ll be risky either way. If he’s starting, he’s tough to sit … but that doesn’t mean that he won’t take two hand-offs and be done for the day. The best advice for Ward and Tate owners is probably to sit on your hands, at least for now. Ward is counted on for pass protection but Tate is the better runner. I wouldn’t use either in replacement of Foster win week 1.
Is this the year that the Lions actually take a step forward and stop being the doormat of the NFC North? In following some of Detroit’s fan boards, I think many are being overly optimistic yet again at what the Lions can accomplish in 2011, but I am watching with a keen eye as something does feel different about 2011. Once again, the year likely rests on the health of Matt Stafford but that offensive line is very suspect and I don’t think Johnson and Pettigrew are in the same class as Wayne and Clark or Jennings and Finley. If Stafford can stay off his back, there’s a chance.
I’m extremely intrigued by Matt Ryan in 2011. I think he may actually join the likes of Manning and Brees in averaging 40+ pass attempts per game. As I mentioned in my last article, this is also the trend that I see emerging in the NFL. Ryan has a legitimate shot to jump into the top five of fantasy quarterbacks.
A few other things that I’m going to be watching from week one ….
Can Joe Flacco take the next step. He looks great as a passer and I think he’s got the leadership ability needed, but there’s a dynamic that’s been missing. This may be the year where he either takes that step forward to break away from mediocrity or settles into an Eli Manning type of career, good but not great.
Is Jahvid Best anything more than Reggie Bush? He has shown very little ability to run inside and I question his body’s ability to stay healthy. Speaking of Reggie Bush, he’s teasing us again. Watch his first couple of games and then sell high. It’s tough to do, but fool us once shame on you, full us twice shame on us … fool us five times, who gets the blame?
Anyone else get the feeling that Michael Vick is going to let a lot of fantasy owners down this year? They draw the Rams in week one and it’s a good way to start.
Aaron Rodgers is going to be unstoppable this year if he can stay healthy. I simply can’t fathom what his year could look like with his receivers as good as they are and Finley back in the mix. If he stays healthy, he’s going to go nuts. The Saints open up in Green Bay which is sure to be a shoot-out. Rodgers is going to go nuts!
I’m anxious to see what comes out of Arizona in week one. Playing at home vs. the Panthers, will Larry Fitzfranchise regain his elite status? Will Kolb be the quarterback the Cardinals sorely need? Right now, it seems that the arrows are pointing up on both players. Fitz is good in any situation but should be much better in 2011 with the ultra confident Kolb under center. Fitz is an auto-start every week regardless, Kolb is middle of the pack until we see more. Beanie Wells fans have to be excited. I think he needed Ryan Williams in the mix to keep him running hard but he’s going to get his career high in touches.
The Panthers broke my heart this off-season. It’s obvious that they view DeAngelo Williams as THE back and that they don’t trust Stewart but I’m still shocked that DWill resigned in Carolina – thus ending any hope that he’ll get a ring. Kudos to both Williams and Steve Smith for sticking it out and making Panther fans proud.
Just how bad are the Seahawks and the Vikings going to be, especially the Seahawks. At least the Vikings were smart enough to land McNabb. The Seahawks inexplicably have handed the offense over to Jackson, at least in week 1. Either way, downgrade both Rice and Lynch in that offense. The offensive line is beyond horrific as is, and LT Okung can’t stay healthy. I had high hopes for Lynch in 2011 but the Hawks just didn’t make any moves that give me confidence. That said, Sidney Rice is one of my favorite NFL players and I’m happy to be rooting for the Hawks this year here in the Pacific NW.
Rashad Jennings is down for the year and many believe MJD is due for a bigger load than what was projected. While this is likely true, I firmly believe you can’t put more carries on those knees. His week 1 matchup vs. the Titans looks good and he’s a clear RB1.
For IDP format players, keep an eye on a couple of inside backers. Joe Mays in Denver gets the start and there has been no clear indication as of yet regarding whether or not rookie Casey Matthews has retained his starting spot in the middle. All signs point to Jamar Chaney being a better fit at the Mike. I’ll also be watching Paul Posluszny and Nick Barnett, both playing with their new teams, Jacksonville and Buffalo respectively.
In Cincinnati, it’s like best to start no one other than Benson unless you are desperate. Rookie A.J. Green looks great and I love his attitude but in that offense, it’s just hard to get excited. I’m rooting for Andy Dalton but it’s going to take some time … a long time.
More to come as we get closer to kick off. If you have questions or comments, be sure to chime in below.
You can find Jeff on Twitter at @dlf_jeff
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